Key To Bucs’ Offense Is Improving Success Rate
December 10th, 2025
Bucs’ success rate of offensive plays almost total opposite of 2024.
The Bucs’ third-down percentage against the slimy Saints was atrocious on Sunday.
The Bucs, when they had a third down, may have been better off punting in some cases. The Bucs’ third-down conversion percentage was 23 percent — 3 of 13. You’re not going to win many games with that percentage.
Well, there is one way: avoid third downs.
Joe remembers former NFL suit Michael Lombardi saying the league’s best offenses play CFL ball; they avoid third downs. And if you dig deep into offenses that move the ball well (think the Bucs with Tom Brady and Bucco Bruce Arians), those teams convert on early downs more often than not.
However, to be able to pull this off, an offense has to be able to rattle off successful plays.
Successful plays are when teams gain at least 40 percent of the yards needed to convert on first down, 60 percent or more on second downs and 100 percent on third or fourth downs.
The Bucs are terrible with successful plays. Sumer Sports, a stats outfit once run by former Dixie Chicks shot-caller Thomas Dimitroff, has the Bucs with the fifth-worst percentage of offensive plays being successful, 41 percent.
(By comparison, the Bucs ranked No. 3 last year in successful plays percentage.)
Yesterday, Bucs offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard was asked about repairing the third-down conversion rate.
“You don’t want to be in third-and-longs,” Grizzard said, correctly. “I know there are definitely some play calls I’d want back to put these guys in a better position on a scheme that might work better.”
Grizzard tried to cover for Baker Mayfield, who has not been effective outside of running the past six weeks. Grizzard suggested it would be unfair to single Mayfield out for third-down struggles as it is a team effort, good or bad.
Or in other words, an offensive #Fail.
December 10th, 2025 at 12:04 am
The title of this post reminds me of the phrase, water is wet.
December 10th, 2025 at 12:19 am
About to make falcons look good tomorrow night….
December 10th, 2025 at 12:47 am
Boy, I sure miss the 2002 Bucs. The Bucs that could win games with pick sixes alone. The offense wasn’t horrible, but it did just enough to get the job done. Didn’t have any real household names on it, but that defense, my God, it was a cast of future HOF’ers. Lynch, Sapp, Brooks, Rice, Barber, and even Dexter Jackson, just to name a few. Nothing even close to resembling one of those guys on this current roster. This is not the Tampa Bay I grew up watching. It’s just sad how we’ve become the Florida Browns. Stupidity everywhere!
December 10th, 2025 at 12:48 am
Grizz is way over his head. He can’t hide plays from defenses, cant adjust and continues to call plays that have no chance of working on 4th down. I don’t really blame him, but why would an NFL team hire an OC that has never called a play at any level of football? Not PeeWee, not HS, not College. Stupid arrogant organization for promoting this guy. OJT at this level of football is insane. The whole coaching staff along with Licht needs to be flushed down the toilet.
December 10th, 2025 at 1:11 am
Aqualung
Yep. Simple.
December 10th, 2025 at 1:35 am
Pfft, this Grizzard guy is a real-life, true genius.
December 10th, 2025 at 5:16 am
I don’t understand the point of this article. I just don’t get it. “Hi, my name is Forest Gump”
December 10th, 2025 at 5:46 am
Duh.
December 10th, 2025 at 5:59 am
“Key To Bucs’ Offense Is Improving Success Rate”
No Spit! Next.
December 10th, 2025 at 6:52 am
Tried to cover for Baker Mayfield is right. This fanbase just can’t handle how badly Mayfield has played since the Detroit game and is taking it out on Todd Bowles instead. Hopefully more discussion about Mayfield on the podcast will be forthcoming and whether or not he deserves an extension.
December 10th, 2025 at 6:53 am
Grizzard was dealt an unfair card with all the injuries but he also has a limited playbook and is unable to make any adjustments. Sadly, he will be one and done as OC of the Bucs when this season is over and the Glazers demand accountability. All the coordinators failed epically on this team, other teams like San Fran had worse injuries than the Bucs but they managed, the Bucs folded like a cheap tent. The players have quit because they have no faith in their coaching staff and they are making business decisions. Many players and most of the coaching staff will be somewhere else next season and some of the players will be out of football. Being mediocre and a loaf does not give you good film to shop yourself in the NFL where other teams besides Tampa value hard work and heart.
December 10th, 2025 at 6:59 am
Ryan, you cannot use Baker as the reason why Bowles was an epic fail for this season.. You cannot blame Baker because the D cannot tackle or make a ****ing sack or that DL and edge rushers have been asked to cover players way off the line of scrimmage and get burned or that certain players who have been paid on D with big contracts are now playing way below average. Special teams are an abomination and that is on Bowles too, he could have launched McGaughey and bad special team scrubs as well. Of course when it comes time to pay the piper it is possible that coaches will throw players under the bus to save their own skin, it just depends on how much integrity they have.
December 10th, 2025 at 8:02 am
We lose on 3rd down, because we lose on 1st, and 2nd down. We lose on 4th down, because we lose on 3rd down. Basically we’re just losers.
December 10th, 2025 at 8:43 am
Half of the attempts on 4th down should have been punts. Our punter is good enough to pin teams inside of the 20.ANd often the 10.
That limits the other teams play calls. Going for it on 4th in your own territory is crazy. No matter what the analytics say.
Too many people in love with statistics.
December 10th, 2025 at 9:25 am
Because of so many injuries, it’s difficult to say returning Bucs will be fine down the stretch.
Is is GRIZZARD learning curve as a unproven offensive coach or too many injuries that’s hurting the Bucs
Is it a combination of injuries and a developing offensive coordinator. Perhaps! At this stage in the season it’s probably both and the chances of improving are becoming very limited.
The Bucs past history doesn’t paint a good scenario and a lose on Thursday could be the final Nail the coffin for the Bucs
We all need to do a collective prayer because it may have to be a divine intervention by God to save the Bucs
December 10th, 2025 at 9:40 am
#1 – yeah, at least half the 4th down attempts should have been punts.
#2 – Play Action on first down would be very nice sometimes. Empty backfield on first down – not so much…
#3 – more counters and motion please
#4 – how about our WRs, TEs, and RBs RUN PAST THE STICKS?
#5 – since our guards stick in pass pro – roll Baker out more – put some pressure on the edge. But if you do, park a TE or RB within 6-7 yards for an outlet.
NONE of this is hard to figure out.
December 10th, 2025 at 12:44 pm
The Lizard Lick Experience is nearly over.
December 10th, 2025 at 2:48 pm
I need to remember this one for the wife.
“The key to my chores will be improving my success rate!”