Bucs Playoff Likelihood Over 75 Percent
December 15th, 2025
The excitement of playoff football in Tampa got a lot more likely yesterday.
This Joe has new life.
Not only did the Panthers (7-7) look weak (not bad, just impotent) losing to the slimy Saints in New Orleans, that outcome vastly improved the Bucs’ postseason chances.
In fact, the New York Times/TheAthletic.com data models give the Bucs a 76 percent of reaching the postseason. That’s largely because if the Bucs split their upcoming two games with the Panthers, the Bucs can win an eventual tiebreaker between the two teams: record against common opponents.
ESPN says the Bucs have a 75 percent probability of hosting a playoff game courtesy of another NFC South crown.
If the Bucs make the postseason, that means they’ve actually won a game against decent football teams, maybe even two. And if the offense stays as healthy as it is now, then the Bucs have the firepower to actually outscore a playoff team.
Step 1. Look like the hungriest and most physical football team on the field for a change.
December 15th, 2025 at 8:10 am
Sure Joe, whatever you say.
December 15th, 2025 at 8:14 am
I truly can’t believe how awful the NFC South division has become.
Remember the days of Drew Brees, Matty Ice and Cam Newton?
Wow… It’s a bit embarrassing.
December 15th, 2025 at 8:16 am
Zero excitement. This team does not deserve playoff football right now. It would be a slaughter
December 15th, 2025 at 8:16 am
Today on a very special Todd gets yet another chance………..
December 15th, 2025 at 8:21 am
The Saints have found their QB and will be a much better team next year
December 15th, 2025 at 8:24 am
Alanbucsfan, just like the falcons were supposed to be a better team this year. Lol Saints will suck again next year.
December 15th, 2025 at 8:25 am
Pass rush, pass rush, pass rush!!!! [I’m talking about draft picks next year]
December 15th, 2025 at 8:26 am
We all know this team is hot garbage with Bowles. He’s proven his utter incompetence time and time and time again. He needs to be gone a week ago.
December 15th, 2025 at 8:28 am
Funny how we think we are a good team!
December 15th, 2025 at 8:28 am
Short Bus division! Don’t we feel special
December 15th, 2025 at 8:29 am
Marine Buc. That’s what’s so frustrating. The Bucs should’ve dominated that division this season as bad as the other teams have been with the roster the Bucs have. Nevertheless, they again have to back their way in or wait and cheer for other teams to lose to make the playoffs if they made it. I am still a massive Buc fan and always will be but, I just don’t have confidence in them right now
December 15th, 2025 at 8:29 am
Normally I would say you can’t count on the Saints for anything. I guess occasionally they can be a spoiler. Been that for us a few times.
December 15th, 2025 at 8:30 am
I had to root for the stupid Saints yesterday. Let that sink in!
December 15th, 2025 at 8:32 am
We must be like Notre Dame and forfeit the playoff game
December 15th, 2025 at 8:35 am
The Bucs are stuck in .500 purgatory. This is the worst place to be. Either be a real contender or build up from a terrible team. Hopefully they lose their last 3 games and can start working on the future with some higher draft picks. This team is a one and done if they make the playoffs and the cycle continues.
December 15th, 2025 at 8:35 am
Zero confidence this team can change it’s stripes at this point in the season. Seams like a lot of the players on this team has shut it down mentally, plus BAD coaching = losing, which = NO PLAYOFFS! Hope I’ve proven wrong though!
December 15th, 2025 at 8:37 am
Stomach turning
More embarrassment if they manage to get into the playoffs, the threshold to get in the playoffs is just a touch above mediocre these days.
This is like giving a patient with terminal cancer one more round of torturous chemotherapy and then the patient dying in a few weeks !
December 15th, 2025 at 8:37 am
I was watching the late afternoon games at Hooters yesterday and asked someone at the bar whether the Bucs have become the worst team in football. There was serious debate as to whether the Jets or Titans are worse. The debilitating problem with the Bucs is in the heads of a few players, as opposed to pure lack of talent on the other teams. Anyway, the badket case problems we have are fixable, but if they persist then I don’t see how we beat any other team that at least has pride in their effort and results.
December 15th, 2025 at 8:38 am
Sure, playoff game — one and done!
December 15th, 2025 at 8:39 am
Respectfully, who cares? Just do get bounced in the first round in embarrassing fashion again? This team needs a revamp starting with Todd Bowles.
December 15th, 2025 at 8:39 am
Thank you for taking advantage of one of life’s treasures and one of Joe’s partners.
December 15th, 2025 at 8:48 am
Carolina can only take out spot by sweeping us or beating us then beating Seattle. Both outcomes, highly unlikely.
December 15th, 2025 at 8:48 am
Fire Todd
December 15th, 2025 at 8:50 am
Well, at least the Bucs play two of their last three games on the road. They tend to play better on the road. Lord knows they don’t have home field advantage in Tampa. If a playoff spot hinges on that last game in Tampa against Carolina, I would be very afraid.
December 15th, 2025 at 8:52 am
“This Joe has new life.” Until the Panthers give us a spanking this Sunday. The soft underbelly of this spineless defense will not change. not as long as the “genius guru” is in charge.
December 15th, 2025 at 8:52 am
For all our bitching, season starts now lol
Go Bowles!
December 15th, 2025 at 8:57 am
And if they make it there’s a 100% chance they get blown out in the first round
December 15th, 2025 at 9:09 am
It’s almost like Joe already forgot how we looked against New Orleans and Atlanta.
December 15th, 2025 at 9:21 am
I miss Steve Duemig and Chris Thomas brutal honesty in times like these
December 15th, 2025 at 9:27 am
Now, the Bucs players see this and believe it’s in the bag and all they have to do us to show up.
December 15th, 2025 at 9:29 am
People are softening their position on the fire Bowles chatter expect fans but if he loses to Carolina there’s no reason to waste any more time on the inevitable. He should have never been hired
December 15th, 2025 at 9:32 am
Marine Buc
We’re not the worst division in the NfL. Move on loser
December 15th, 2025 at 9:47 am
Joe, what makes you think this team can win another game? Recent play does not support your optimism.
December 15th, 2025 at 10:05 am
We’ve entered into the realm of… This is why Chucky got fired. Being consistently in the middle of the pack and losing your first playoff game is not something to strive for. The problem is this team has the talent to be a true contender. Apparently they don’t have the coaching.
Does anyone think they’re going to beat Carolina or the Dolphins? I have zero confidence.
December 15th, 2025 at 10:06 am
Not sure about the Bucs being the most hungiest teams going into the playoffs. Joe, before you and sports writers have been tellting a different story in the Bucs losing streak.
The truth be told, no one knows which Bucs we are about to get.Who are the real Bucs????
December 15th, 2025 at 10:26 am
Make the playoffs just so they can get demolished in the first round? The offense is going to need to hang 30+ every game to make a run. With our pedestrian IOL, I think both the Joe’s have a better chance at getting a phone number from a Hooters waitress.
December 15th, 2025 at 10:31 am
Tyler Shough is tied for most wins by a Saints rookie QB in history at 3 with Archie Manning. Where would the Saints be if Shough had started all their games?
December 15th, 2025 at 10:35 am
As a mortal being with a limited lifespan, I refuse to trash, or fail to enjoy, a potential trip to the playoffs. And honestly, look around the league: the NFL is ugly right now. Injuries, mistakes, losing streaks…even among the so-called contenders.
Do I have much hope for the defense? Nope. But in my mind, hope springs eternal for the offense.
Why the optimism? We’ve had our full complement of backs and receivers for one game. We’re a dropped pass here, a penalty there, a missed throw there from truly breaking out and hanging 40. Those are correctable mistakes…the ones you see when there’s been a lack of continuity.
Another positive: we’ve stopped playing Cade Otton. He’s had too many drops and too many mistakes at the worst possible times.
And while I have zero trust in the scheme, or the motives, on the defensive side of the ball, I do trust that Evans, Godwin, Bucky, Emeka, Wirfs, Goedecke, and Baker want to win and know how to win. They’ve proven they can get on a heater. Why not now?
Lastly, while the defense has proven it can’t lead this team, it has shown it can play decent when the offense is rolling. If the offense levels up, I expect the defense to be at least respectable. That combo, especially in this year’s chaotic NFL could absolutely make a run!!!!!
Go Bucs!!!!!
December 15th, 2025 at 10:37 am
Crawl into the playoffs with 8 or 9 wins get a$$& beat in playoffs radio saves his job.
December 15th, 2025 at 10:49 am
The defense couldn’t hold a two touchdown lead in the 4th quarter with ten minutes left.
Who on earth really can think this team is worth more than a steaming pile of dung?
Bowles even admitted that the coaches are out of answers.
The inmates are running the asylum.
This division should already be won. But not with Toad Bowels.
No, he’s happy to be 500 and scrape by to keep his job. Pathetic.
December 15th, 2025 at 10:50 am
Coach Bowles needs to be replaced. Not a very good Head Coach. Has no adjustments for the game
December 15th, 2025 at 11:14 am
Again – win a playoff game (if we get there) or Bowles should be bounced. A Super Bowl contender should be the only focus, not 500% and bounced. Even with a playoff run, I fear a player tune out again next year with Bowles. If the D assignments are som complex that the players keep blowing assignments, I would tune Bowles out too.
December 15th, 2025 at 11:18 am
The way most posters here feel we should get rid of Bowles. He has made the playoffs his first 3 years here. Laid one turd in the playoffs- Brady’s last year. Very competitive in the playoffs. Baker Mayfield, when he has NFL quality receivers, is the best QB in the NFL. With the offensive line instability and missing his 3 best receivers we’re still leading our division. Bowles and Baker ain’t going nowhere. They have hung in there when everyone else panics. We’re going to find out that it’s how you finish. We’re going to finish this season so strong that I’m probably the only one who believes it. We’re gonna light this thing on fire from here on out.
December 15th, 2025 at 11:32 am
With 90 percent likely they lose the first playoff game.
December 15th, 2025 at 11:42 am
Kenton agreed…without any comment on Bowles job security.
This team can get on a heater offensively.
With Bucky back against the Cards, we were a few penalties and dropped passes from blowing that game open.
Saints game…does not count in the sense it was in driving rain.
Falcons game, 28 points, with tons of mistakes that are probably related to working back in two receivers.
Expect 30+ points per game for the last three games, and the defense to play respectable.
December 15th, 2025 at 12:02 pm
Oh yah! Another chance to get humiliated on National TV. When will the Glazers realize it’s way past due time to fire the entire coaching staff and clean house on defense as well.
December 15th, 2025 at 12:11 pm
Would it surprise anyone to see us come out looking completely flat like the last few games? Will people still make excuses for Bowles or that happens in a must win game? (Although it’s been essentially must wins for weeks now)
December 15th, 2025 at 1:02 pm
Feeling good right now too! But it is sort of like a ping pong ball at times.
December 15th, 2025 at 1:04 pm
Bowles should have been excluded from HC consideration as soon as he called a zero blitz against the Rams in the playoffs (Brady’s second year here). He cost us a 3rd SB with that call.
December 15th, 2025 at 1:25 pm
They had a 75% chance of beating Atlanta.
They had a 75% chance of getting a 4th and 1.
Thy had a 75% chance of stopping 3rd and 28. Then a 75% chance of stopping 4th and 14.
They have a 75% chance of losing to Carolina twice.
December 15th, 2025 at 1:26 pm
I promise we the Bucs have the worst fans! Even if we win they complain that we didn’t blow them out. The same fans with no hope right are going to be the same fans hooting & hollering when we do make the playoffs
December 15th, 2025 at 1:33 pm
Get a life Herbie. Fans have a right to want to watch a good team. The NFL allows bad teams in the playoffs – either Carolina or Tampa Bay AND the winner of the equally bad AFC North.