Bucs Own Key Third Tiebreaker Edge On Carolina
December 8th, 2025
It’s official. The Bucs can still still clinch another NFC South crown without needing to beat Carolina in Week 18.
Despite freefalling and playing bad football, the once 5-1 Bucs remain in great position to win the NFC despite losing five of their last seven games.
Yes, Tampa Bay is tied with Carolina (7-6), but the Bucs currently own a key tiebreaker edge.
The first tiebreaker for a division title is head-to-head meetings. The teams haven’t played yet and will face each other Dec. 21 in Charlotte and Jan. 4 (in Tampa).
The second tiebreaker is division record. Each team has one loss in the division, both to the slimy Saints.
So what is tiebreaker No. 3? That’s record against common opponents.
As of today, the Bucs have a 6-4 record against common opponents; Carolina is 5-5.
For those counting at home … Carolina lost to Arizona, New England, Buffalo, New Orleans and San Francisco. And Carolina beat the Dolphins, Jets, Falcons (twice) and Rams.
Tampa Bay beat Arizona, the Falcons, Jets, Saints, 49ers and Seahawks. And the Bucs lost to New England, Buffalo, New Orleans and Rams.
Carolina still must play the Saints and Seahawks, while the Bucs will face Atlanta (on Thursday) and Miami on Dec. 28.
Joe can’t predict a damn thing here. Carolina already lost last month to the Saints by 10 points and heads to New Orleans on Sunday. Seattle may be the best team in football.
The Bucs? They can’t be trusted, but they do have a smaller hill to climb than Carolina as of today.
The New York Times/The Athletic playoff prediction software gives the Bucs a 68 percent chance of winning the NFC South, and they predict the Bucs will have a 9-8 record. NFL.com data models put the Bucs at a 71 percent likelihood of reaching the playoffs.
December 8th, 2025 at 6:17 am
9-8 you say? That is spot on to a Bowles team even if they started 9-0.
I know we have injuries, but something about Bowles not having players ready to play is troublesome
December 8th, 2025 at 6:24 am
Bowles didn’t need Evans to beat the 2 – 10 Saints so give him another week!
December 8th, 2025 at 6:38 am
Well, I am usually delusional when it comes to this team. Thinking they can win any game.
But not now. This group of players is special: no leaders and multiple quitters.
I think they finish 7-10.
I think Joe agrees. No need to worry about 3rd tiebreakers if the team is playing hard.
They are not.
December 8th, 2025 at 6:42 am
If I were a betting man, I think I would load up on Carolina winning the division. Basically bet against Bowles and you will win some coin. These prediction models do not see the total bewilderment and lack of heart this team has or do they figure in the head coaches. One, Canales, is on the rise and his team believes in him, the other team has Bowles who arrogantly puts his players in a position to fail week in and week out. The D finally has checked out on him, and the O is too banged up to put up more than 20 or 23 a game. Special teams are atrocious, and the Glazers should have forced Todd to fire McGaughy after the Jets debacle, heck they fired Mike Smith in season, it has precedent. So, my heart wants the Bucs to win Thursday, my gut says take that fat money line which is at well over +200/-230 before people start putting money on the ATL and betting it down. Point spread is -5.5 Bucs, hilarious line, it will come down quickly as well. I love the Bucs but there is no way Todd Bowles should be allowed to be head coach again after this season, heck he never really won the job, it was given to him when Arians retired under dubious circumstances.
December 8th, 2025 at 6:54 am
Darengibo Says:
December 8th, 2025 at 6:17 am
9-8 you say? That is spot on to a Bowles team even if they started 9-0.
I know we have injuries, but something about Bowles not having players ready to play is troublesome
………………..
I would not be surprised if this team go 9-8 even if they start 10-0. This is the only thing we have not seen yet lol
Seriously though its embarassing at this point. Its delusional. This team keeps doing the same things not change anything, continues to play the same way but somehow expects different results.
Go Bucs
December 8th, 2025 at 7:00 am
Soon to be Hall of Famer Evans, should sit out the rest of the season.
December 8th, 2025 at 7:02 am
MEANINGLESS!
Maybe for a rebuilding team that has not been there in years.
Did you see the game last night with Houston and KC
Both teams FOUGHT their hearts out until the last whistle!
This team has No Heart!
Yeah Baker does and a handful of players but the team is listless
Shameful and pathetic!
December 8th, 2025 at 7:07 am
ModHairKen, unfortunately I’m in your camp now. These last few weeks have been dismal. They’re just not a good team. Certainly not playing like one.
December 8th, 2025 at 7:20 am
How did the Bucs go from a team that beat the Seahawks, in Seattle, to a team that lost to the Saints, at home?!
December 8th, 2025 at 7:25 am
Wow, they’re getting all of us now. Is it just me or am I the only posi-troll around here that woke up feeling almost lighter due to dropping the weight of trying to convince myself of how good this team “should and could” be?
At the same time, I still want to win the division just so next year all the talking heads have to say “the Bucs currently hold the longest streak of division titles” now that the Bills and Chiefs let theirs go. Also, we are tied with the Saints. Screw that.
December 8th, 2025 at 7:34 am
You can’t fire the owners, but you can sure enough fire everyone else.
December 8th, 2025 at 7:34 am
SOBER UP
Drunk Bucs Fan!
It’s meaningless for this franchise to win another Division title and
THEN GO
ONE and Done!
December 8th, 2025 at 7:37 am
Expectations were too high based on early season success so having a 3rd tie breaker at the moment is very underwhelming and a slap in the face. This should not have mattered.
December 8th, 2025 at 7:40 am
This is my .02 on this team. Injuries have wrecked them for multiple years straight. Problem is that great teams have better depth and coaching to overcome it. That’s partially on Licht, his later round picks have been elite. His Top 3 ish round picks have been very erratic. Some elite/HOF, some busts. He hasn’t found solutions in the pass rush and LBs post JPP/Shaq/Prime Devin White. Plus the staff haven’t been able to coach up their replacements, consistently. That’s on Bowles.
Baker has been bad for over a month, and closer to 7 weeks now. Injury or not, he’s missed a bunch of throws (had a bunch of drops and bad route running, to be fair…) but this team moves as Baker moves. This offense nor ST has played complementary ball, which exposes a pretty weak defense.
Finally, this team under Bowles has had a game late in each season where they play uninspired and awful against a bad team and lose a game they shouldn’t have (2023 vs Saints week 17; 2024 Week 16 vs Dallas) this was in week 14, if they can beat 509 Cousins, I think the find a way to survive. Problem is their ceiling feels like 2022 (squeaking in, in a bad division and getting blown out in the WC)
If not, this team will prolly collapse like in 2008, and everybody gets fired.
I think if Bowles finds a way gets to the playoffs win or lose, the Glazers give him a pass due to injuries and forces him to make staff changes, if he misses the playoffs, all bets are off and he’s “retired”..
December 8th, 2025 at 7:42 am
I have stood up for Bowles till this game. If we lose Div or go 9-10wins and lose in playoffs it is time for a change
December 8th, 2025 at 7:44 am
So. If they win the division, they will play to an empty stadium. Unless, the opposing fans show up. Rightfully so. The bucs let us down at home, on national TV, and in the playoffs….we know how this story ends
December 8th, 2025 at 7:49 am
SB~LV,
I REFUSE! If it wasn’t for my trusty blender how do you think I could ever make it through a season??
All kidding aside, it is a tough fence to ride. I can never watch the Bucs play and hope they lose. I just don’t have it in me. Even if it could be for the best in the long term. The best I can get to is apathy after a loss, and I’m reeeeeeaaallll close to that.
December 8th, 2025 at 7:51 am
The last thing I want to see is this team make the playoffs.
1) Probably would mean Bowles returns.
2) I would be forced to drop approximately $250 on playoff tickets just to see the Bucs get killed.
December 8th, 2025 at 7:56 am
This team is a laughingstock. FU Todd Bowles.
December 8th, 2025 at 8:21 am
Won’t matter when Kitties sweep Bucs…
December 8th, 2025 at 8:26 am
I cannot believe that guys are still buying into the excuses. Injuries, we’ve been here before, etc. and they’d be OK with Bowles coming back in ’26 with a DC and staff changes.
Its over.
You can always tell the pulse of a team by its run defense. Thats 100% about desire and hustle. Its usually a reflection of the coaching staff.
This defense has quit and is being gashed every week without a desire to improve
December 8th, 2025 at 8:28 am
A team having heart starts at the top. It starts with ownership
December 8th, 2025 at 8:28 am
A team having heart starts at the top. It starts with ownership
December 8th, 2025 at 8:42 am
I am very disappointed in my Bucs. It’s time for Bowles and Licht to go. The Glazers must realize fans are miserable. You lose to one of the worst NFL teams at home. That’s unforgivable. Don’t be surprised if ATL beats us on Thursday night. Hell, maybe they should. Glazers need to show us they got a pair—time for Todd Bowles to pack his bags.
December 8th, 2025 at 8:42 am
lol i’m not sure which stage of grief a post like this is associated with. i think the past few weeks have been denial and now “joe” is on to bargaining.
people with the ability to think clearly like me have seen this package of buc garbage coming for some time. some of the maroon cheerleaders around here were just not willing to accept how bad some of the players are, how over the top some of the hype was, and how useless bowles, and quite frankly most of the coaching staff are.
now you know.
December 8th, 2025 at 8:45 am
Hi Joe, I realize the need to show the possibilities, but really. Yes be objective , but I think this team can’t win another game right now. That at this point is not negitive, but looks to be the truth and an objective opinion about this team . I don’t see much changing. This team is what it is, a less than average team that initially showed potential to be a really good team early. Good teams are asendending right now, while the Bucs are desending.
At this point all the kings horses and all the king’s men can’t put this team back together again.
December 8th, 2025 at 8:47 am
To be honest, idc about playoffs. Given this team conditions, it would be better to miss playoffs. Maybe then the front office will do something about Bowles and his coaching team.
December 8th, 2025 at 8:50 am
Really Joe? Who gives a sh#t about playoff tie breakers? Mute point, Carolina will win it outright.
December 8th, 2025 at 8:58 am
We are not gonna have to worry about tiebreaker scenarios 🤣🤣🤣!!!
Atlanta’s gonna come stomp a mud hole in this pathetic defensive scheme on Thursday…..
Carolina will beat Bucs over 10 points, and then Dolphins run game will drop over 200 yards in their win.
GAME OVERRRRRRR
Blow up this coaching staff Licht!
No excuses not to!
December 8th, 2025 at 9:14 am
Bucs making every hill look like Everest joe stop peeing on people telling them it’s raining. There is no hope with the bucs with bowels at the helm.
December 8th, 2025 at 9:27 am
I will be amazed if Todd doesn’t get swept the rest of the year.
December 8th, 2025 at 9:54 am
Do we WANT to win the division….get embarrassed in the first round – and KEEP Bowles?
Honestly, knowing the history and patterns of this team – does ‘anyone’ think we’ll win another game this year? Every team we face is better than us right now (yes, Atlanta and Miami are too).
December 8th, 2025 at 9:58 am
Thanks Joe for sharing that encouraging information. I don’t know what to say at this point, but I know I’m still a Bucs fan and believe in my home team’s ability to beat the Falcons this Thursday !! The Bucs have incredible talent on offense and just need to eliminate the mistakes we’ve been making over and over again!!
Way too many dropped passes. We need to work on catching the football over and over again.
Still love my Buccaneers!!
Go Bucs !! Beat the Falcons !!
December 8th, 2025 at 10:09 am
I remember a while ago someone saying on this site that you are not a true fan if you root for the team to lose. And on the surface that sounds like a logical comment. However I think a true fan looks at the big picture and the long-term picture.
Even if we went out and make the playoffs it is quite evident that this current roster and this current coaching staff is not a Super bowl contender. Another year of one and done in the playoffs all it will do is secure us the number one Division position giving us another extremely difficult schedule and a worse draft pick. Additionally and more importantly it likely secures at least another season of coaching by Todd “game has passed me by ” Bowles.
I think a real fan sees the real picture and knows that the only way this team will get better is with a real shake up. That starts with unfortunately blowing up this team to some degree:
1. Fire the coaches- special teams is a disaster. Defense is a disaster. While I am a bit disappointed with Josh grizzard I do give him a bit of a pass for the following reasons. He has been playing with a makeshift offensive line for nearly every game of the season. Baker Mayfield has been playing hurt for a good portion of the season, we have missed Bucky Irving for more than half the season. And we have missed the core trio of wide receivers that were expected to be large contributors for most of the season. Now yes I know other teams have done more with less, but for a rookie offensive coordinator not having an offensive line and missing all of your weapons and having an injured quarterback really limits what you can do. I am okay keeping him for another season. I would also keep the offensive line coaches because I think they have done a fairly good job given what they have had to work with.
2. Time to say goodbye to some beloved vets- I am quite certain that this was David’s last season. I think he chose to stick around because he saw a personnel that he thought could really contend for a super bowl. But after him bolting out of the locker room at the end of last game I think that signals the writing is on the wall and he will not be back. Mike Evans who I love and who I expect will retire as a buccaneer likely has at most one season more in him but I think the way injuries caught up with him this year it wouldn’t surprise me if he decides to hang it up as well.
3. Time to trade, cut, or not resign underperformers. I expect that unless he takes a cheap deal that Cade Otton, Logan Hall, Rachaad White will all be gone. Dean likely will be gone because he has been one of our only shining players on defense and like fools we rejigged his contract in a way that guarantees he will sign somewhere else for a lot of money when we could have had him for another season at a bargain. Reddick was a a13 million dollar gamble and will be gone.
Now this may be unpopular to say but I think we should look at trading Antoine Winfield Jr next season. He is not worth what he is being paid and is not look like the same guy from 2 years ago. If we can get a first round pick for him or a high second round pick I would jump on it. Same thing with Zion McCollum I think somewhere somebody might see his athletic skills and feel that his performance has been suboptimal because of the scheme he is in and might be willing to give us a third round pick. If we can get a third I would let him go as well.
4. Use off season and draft to fill voids-
Top 4 rounds should be:
1. Evans replacement (Big Body WR1) or Edge rusher if a top one is available
2. Interior DT to both pair with and eventually replace Vea ( Kansey Vea Roberts and new
DT sounds not bad up front)
3. ILB we need David replacement. We all hate on Dennis but I think he was used wrong.
He can Blitz and stuff the run but we need a coverage backer
4.Tight End
The order of those pics certainly could change depending on what talent is available in each round. If there really is a game changer at linebacker or the tackle then yes I would take them in an earlier round if possible but I think these are all positions where you can get value in the draft rather than overdrafting since linebacker tight ant and detachable are not typically as popular positions as quarterback wide receiver and CBS.
Free agency should be for getting a veteran lineman in the interior at guard or center and consider moving Barton to guard. Safeties tend not to be overly expensive in free agency and would get Winfield replacement if traded to pair with Tykee and Izien. Running back to replace white or re sign him cheap as well. I would also use free agency to try to sign and established Edge rusher given that we have not really developed one in many years though a new coaching staff might be different. This is the one place I would consider spending some money to do so. I would also use free agency to find another depth piece at corner with the expectation that Morrison will take over one position and if we lose McCallum then I would go for a high price corner in free agency as our other major signing.
I think should we not make the playoffs and draft somewhere around the 14th spot we could probably reload certain positions on the roster get the team younger and more aggressive mindset for a new coach that would be able to turn this team around probably within a season or two.
Finally and the last thing that I have not said but that could be the most important is while I love Baker Mayfield and the moxie that he has I am really not sure if he is a championship level quarterback. So while I would want to extend him I would make it a contract that had incentives in it to get it to the numbers that we would normally give to a championship quarterback and with ways of getting out of it should he not reach those performance measures so that we are not stuck with a heavyweight around the neck of the franchise because of a massive contract.
December 8th, 2025 at 10:10 am
I think at this point I’ll have to disagree with Journey and Stop Believin’
December 8th, 2025 at 10:14 am
Bowles has lost the team and this bunch couldn’t beat Dartmouth at home if they had to. It’s over.
December 8th, 2025 at 10:29 am
Running a 7 yard pattern on 4th and 8 will not do it. (Otton)
Missing fairly easy passes/catches will not do it. (Mayfield/Egbuka)
Taking a terrible angle and missing a tackle will not do it (LVD)
Our linebackers are too slow and every team knows it. We don’t get enough draft picks to address everything that is wrong. The Glazers need to tell Licht to do whatever is necessary to improve our ROSTER.
December 8th, 2025 at 10:30 am
finishing 9-8……?
9 and 8…….?
playoffs…!…playoffs…!
(think jim mora chirping in your ear)
if we go from 5-1 to 9-8……………..that’s f’in pathetic…
top flight pathetic-ness at it’s finest…
celebrating losing 7 of the last 11 would be sheer blasphemy
December 8th, 2025 at 10:32 am
at least go 10-7…
which means 5-6 for the rest of the year, after the 5-1 start…
at least sort of have a .500 record with 5-6…
4-7 deserves a seat on the couch
December 8th, 2025 at 10:54 am
back dooring into the playoffs after a 6-2 start is embarrassing!!!
bowles doesnt have the guts to fire the special teams coach and his ego is too big to relieve himself as DC….
bowles will fall on his own sword….
GO BUCS!!!!!
December 8th, 2025 at 10:56 am
Adam 10-7 would require the Bucs only losing one game down the stretch. I do not see that happening but let’s say the Bucs actually beat the ATL and then they get Carolina on the road, tough sell and the Fins on the road tough sell too so let’s just say 10 dash 7 is a reach..
The only game I see the Bucs winning will be the last game of the season if the Bucs are already eliminated and Bowles does what Lovie Smith did in his last game as Houston HC, winning a meaningless game to cost his team the #1 overall pick. The Bucs going to 8-9 would probably screw the new regime out of a decent guy they had their eyes on and the Bucs settle for less as usual. Its a Bucs life……
December 8th, 2025 at 11:13 am
FortMyersDave:
i agree dave…sadly a 3-1 finish seems so daunting…
i can see 2-2 maybe…
but at 9-8, after 5-1……..all i can think is jim mora 🙂
December 8th, 2025 at 12:33 pm
Who cares, Caronlina will beat us.
December 8th, 2025 at 1:16 pm
thanks but it does not matter
unless the team shows signs of life — seems dead at this time — another wasted season
December 8th, 2025 at 5:10 pm
Wouldn’t it be great for the Bucs to back into the playoffs and get Todd’s boys blasted by a ‘real’ team?
December 8th, 2025 at 6:57 pm
another critical moment in bakers career he needs to put the team on his back and lead them to the playoffs like brady would
December 8th, 2025 at 8:49 pm
Yucs fans….I’ve got bad news. Bucs will be swept by Carolina.