Bucs Own Key Third Tiebreaker Edge On Carolina
December 8th, 2025
It’s official. The Bucs can still still clinch another NFC South crown without needing to beat Carolina in Week 18.
Despite freefalling and playing bad football, the once 5-1 Bucs remain in great position to win the NFC despite losing five of their last seven games.
Yes, Tampa Bay is tied with Carolina (7-6), but the Bucs currently own a key tiebreaker edge.
The first tiebreaker for a division title is head-to-head meetings. The teams haven’t played yet and will face each other Dec. 21 in Charlotte and Jan. 4 (in Tampa).
The second tiebreaker is division record. Each team has one loss in the division, both to the slimy Saints.
So what is tiebreaker No. 3? That’s record against common opponents.
As of today, the Bucs have a 6-4 record against common opponents; Carolina is 5-5.
For those counting at home … Carolina lost to Arizona, New England, Buffalo, New Orleans and San Francisco. And Carolina beat the Dolphins, Jets, Falcons (twice) and Rams.
Tampa Bay beat Arizona, the Falcons, Jets, Saints, 49ers and Seahawks. And the Bucs lost to New England, Buffalo, New Orleans and Rams.
Carolina still must play the Saints and Seahawks, while the Bucs will face Atlanta (on Thursday) and Miami on Dec. 28.
Joe can’t predict a damn thing here. Carolina already lost last month to the Saints by 10 points and heads to New Orleans on Sunday. Seattle may be the best team in football.
The Bucs? They can’t be trusted, but they do have a smaller hill to climb than Carolina as of today.
The New York Times/The Athletic playoff prediction software gives the Bucs a 68 percent chance of winning the NFC South, and they predict the Bucs will have a 9-8 record. NFL.com data models put the Bucs at a 71 percent likelihood of reaching the playoffs.
December 8th, 2025 at 6:17 am
9-8 you say? That is spot on to a Bowles team even if they started 9-0.
I know we have injuries, but something about Bowles not having players ready to play is troublesome
December 8th, 2025 at 6:24 am
Bowles didn’t need Evans to beat the 2 – 10 Saints so give him another week!
December 8th, 2025 at 6:38 am
Well, I am usually delusional when it comes to this team. Thinking they can win any game.
But not now. This group of players is special: no leaders and multiple quitters.
I think they finish 7-10.
I think Joe agrees. No need to worry about 3rd tiebreakers if the team is playing hard.
They are not.
December 8th, 2025 at 6:42 am
If I were a betting man, I think I would load up on Carolina winning the division. Basically bet against Bowles and you will win some coin. These prediction models do not see the total bewilderment and lack of heart this team has or do they figure in the head coaches. One, Canales, is on the rise and his team believes in him, the other team has Bowles who arrogantly puts his players in a position to fail week in and week out. The D finally has checked out on him, and the O is too banged up to put up more than 20 or 23 a game. Special teams are atrocious, and the Glazers should have forced Todd to fire McGaughy after the Jets debacle, heck they fired Mike Smith in season, it has precedent. So, my heart wants the Bucs to win Thursday, my gut says take that fat money line which is at well over +200/-230 before people start putting money on the ATL and betting it down. Point spread is -5.5 Bucs, hilarious line, it will come down quickly as well. I love the Bucs but there is no way Todd Bowles should be allowed to be head coach again after this season, heck he never really won the job, it was given to him when Arians retired under dubious circumstances.
December 8th, 2025 at 6:54 am
Darengibo Says:
December 8th, 2025 at 6:17 am
9-8 you say? That is spot on to a Bowles team even if they started 9-0.
I know we have injuries, but something about Bowles not having players ready to play is troublesome
………………..
I would not be surprised if this team go 9-8 even if they start 10-0. This is the only thing we have not seen yet lol
Seriously though its embarassing at this point. Its delusional. This team keeps doing the same things not change anything, continues to play the same way but somehow expects different results.
Go Bucs
December 8th, 2025 at 7:00 am
Soon to be Hall of Famer Evans, should sit out the rest of the season.
December 8th, 2025 at 7:02 am
MEANINGLESS!
Maybe for a rebuilding team that has not been there in years.
Did you see the game last night with Houston and KC
Both teams FOUGHT their hearts out until the last whistle!
This team has No Heart!
Yeah Baker does and a handful of players but the team is listless
Shameful and pathetic!
December 8th, 2025 at 7:07 am
ModHairKen, unfortunately I’m in your camp now. These last few weeks have been dismal. They’re just not a good team. Certainly not playing like one.
December 8th, 2025 at 7:20 am
How did the Bucs go from a team that beat the Seahawks, in Seattle, to a team that lost to the Saints, at home?!
December 8th, 2025 at 7:25 am
Wow, they’re getting all of us now. Is it just me or am I the only posi-troll around here that woke up feeling almost lighter due to dropping the weight of trying to convince myself of how good this team “should and could” be?
At the same time, I still want to win the division just so next year all the talking heads have to say “the Bucs currently hold the longest streak of division titles” now that the Bills and Chiefs let theirs go. Also, we are tied with the Saints. Screw that.
December 8th, 2025 at 7:34 am
You can’t fire the owners, but you can sure enough fire everyone else.
December 8th, 2025 at 7:34 am
SOBER UP
Drunk Bucs Fan!
It’s meaningless for this franchise to win another Division title and
THEN GO
ONE and Done!
December 8th, 2025 at 7:37 am
Expectations were too high based on early season success so having a 3rd tie breaker at the moment is very underwhelming and a slap in the face. This should not have mattered.
December 8th, 2025 at 7:40 am
This is my .02 on this team. Injuries have wrecked them for multiple years straight. Problem is that great teams have better depth and coaching to overcome it. That’s partially on Licht, his later round picks have been elite. His Top 3 ish round picks have been very erratic. Some elite/HOF, some busts. He hasn’t found solutions in the pass rush and LBs post JPP/Shaq/Prime Devin White. Plus the staff haven’t been able to coach up their replacements, consistently. That’s on Bowles.
Baker has been bad for over a month, and closer to 7 weeks now. Injury or not, he’s missed a bunch of throws (had a bunch of drops and bad route running, to be fair…) but this team moves as Baker moves. This offense nor ST has played complementary ball, which exposes a pretty weak defense.
Finally, this team under Bowles has had a game late in each season where they play uninspired and awful against a bad team and lose a game they shouldn’t have (2023 vs Saints week 17; 2024 Week 16 vs Dallas) this was in week 14, if they can beat 509 Cousins, I think the find a way to survive. Problem is their ceiling feels like 2022 (squeaking in, in a bad division and getting blown out in the WC)
If not, this team will prolly collapse like in 2008, and everybody gets fired.
I think if Bowles finds a way gets to the playoffs win or lose, the Glazers give him a pass due to injuries and forces him to make staff changes, if he misses the playoffs, all bets are off and he’s “retired”..
December 8th, 2025 at 7:42 am
I have stood up for Bowles till this game. If we lose Div or go 9-10wins and lose in playoffs it is time for a change
December 8th, 2025 at 7:44 am
So. If they win the division, they will play to an empty stadium. Unless, the opposing fans show up. Rightfully so. The bucs let us down at home, on national TV, and in the playoffs….we know how this story ends
December 8th, 2025 at 7:49 am
SB~LV,
I REFUSE! If it wasn’t for my trusty blender how do you think I could ever make it through a season??
All kidding aside, it is a tough fence to ride. I can never watch the Bucs play and hope they lose. I just don’t have it in me. Even if it could be for the best in the long term. The best I can get to is apathy after a loss, and I’m reeeeeeaaallll close to that.
December 8th, 2025 at 7:51 am
The last thing I want to see is this team make the playoffs.
1) Probably would mean Bowles returns.
2) I would be forced to drop approximately $250 on playoff tickets just to see the Bucs get killed.
December 8th, 2025 at 7:56 am
This team is a laughingstock. FU Todd Bowles.
December 8th, 2025 at 8:21 am
Won’t matter when Kitties sweep Bucs…
December 8th, 2025 at 8:26 am
I cannot believe that guys are still buying into the excuses. Injuries, we’ve been here before, etc. and they’d be OK with Bowles coming back in ’26 with a DC and staff changes.
Its over.
You can always tell the pulse of a team by its run defense. Thats 100% about desire and hustle. Its usually a reflection of the coaching staff.
This defense has quit and is being gashed every week without a desire to improve
December 8th, 2025 at 8:28 am
A team having heart starts at the top. It starts with ownership
December 8th, 2025 at 8:28 am
A team having heart starts at the top. It starts with ownership
December 8th, 2025 at 8:42 am
I am very disappointed in my Bucs. It’s time for Bowles and Licht to go. The Glazers must realize fans are miserable. You lose to one of the worst NFL teams at home. That’s unforgivable. Don’t be surprised if ATL beats us on Thursday night. Hell, maybe they should. Glazers need to show us they got a pair—time for Todd Bowles to pack his bags.
December 8th, 2025 at 8:42 am
lol i’m not sure which stage of grief a post like this is associated with. i think the past few weeks have been denial and now “joe” is on to bargaining.
people with the ability to think clearly like me have seen this package of buc garbage coming for some time. some of the maroon cheerleaders around here were just not willing to accept how bad some of the players are, how over the top some of the hype was, and how useless bowles, and quite frankly most of the coaching staff are.
now you know.
December 8th, 2025 at 8:45 am
Hi Joe, I realize the need to show the possibilities, but really. Yes be objective , but I think this team can’t win another game right now. That at this point is not negitive, but looks to be the truth and an objective opinion about this team . I don’t see much changing. This team is what it is, a less than average team that initially showed potential to be a really good team early. Good teams are asendending right now, while the Bucs are desending.
At this point all the kings horses and all the king’s men can’t put this team back together again.
December 8th, 2025 at 8:47 am
To be honest, idc about playoffs. Given this team conditions, it would be better to miss playoffs. Maybe then the front office will do something about Bowles and his coaching team.
December 8th, 2025 at 8:50 am
Really Joe? Who gives a sh#t about playoff tie breakers? Mute point, Carolina will win it outright.
December 8th, 2025 at 8:58 am
We are not gonna have to worry about tiebreaker scenarios 🤣🤣🤣!!!
Atlanta’s gonna come stomp a mud hole in this pathetic defensive scheme on Thursday…..
Carolina will beat Bucs over 10 points, and then Dolphins run game will drop over 200 yards in their win.
GAME OVERRRRRRR
Blow up this coaching staff Licht!
No excuses not to!
December 8th, 2025 at 9:14 am
Bucs making every hill look like Everest joe stop peeing on people telling them it’s raining. There is no hope with the bucs with bowels at the helm.