Baker Mayfield Vs. Man Defense Is Not For Weak Souls
December 10th, 2025
Breakdown.
Injuries. It all boils down to injuries.
Joe came across interesting passing stats from the Twitter account @fball_insights. It has every NFL quarterback’s throws broken down through the first 14 weeks of the season.
A stat that jumped out to Joe is Baker Mayfield’s percentage of successful plays throwing against a man defense. It’s downright ugly. When Mayfield is throwing against a man defense, the success percentage of his throws is 36 percent. To put that in context, that’s in the same ballpark as Joe Flacco and Dillon Gabriel.
You know what that tells Joe? Receivers can’t shake defenders often enough in man coverage. For much of the season, two of Mayfield’s main targets were a veteran backup and two rookies, one who got off to a red-hot start and the other happens to be a seventh-round pick.
Mayfield’s touchdown percentage of throws against man defense isn’t great, either. Against zone, Mayfield is fine. But it’s man defense that has really thrown Mayfield and the Bucs for a loop.
Quarterbacks vs man and zone coverage pic.twitter.com/wzPRarzNck
— Football Insights đź“Š (@fball_insights) December 10, 2025
December 10th, 2025 at 4:01 am
He needs to “man up”
December 10th, 2025 at 4:56 am
You see it every game, our WR’s have 0 separation on opposing DB’s whilst our own DB’s aren’t even in the same zipcode as our opponents WR’s.
December 10th, 2025 at 5:12 am
Interesting chart, and too bad Cousins has yet to get enough snaps to be on it.
But Penix, our this week’s starter if healthy, is charted and he has a mere 33% rate against man coverage vs 51% against zone.
So, what the average head coach do to slow down Atlanta after reading those numbers? Play man, right? Of course.
But Bowles? Nope, not a chance.
I’d bet the farm Bowles would stick to that wide open middle zone package he uses week in and out.
Guess I’m being a little hard on Todd since Cousins will be starting. So what! I want him gone!!!
Heard an interview with Trevor Lawrence. He went goo goo over how Coen knows the intricacies of every position on the football field, not just one side of the ball.
Meanwhile, back here in Tampa, we hot a hardhead who struggles to know which way is up.
December 10th, 2025 at 6:24 am
This is obviously sub-par WR play. Can’t get open.
December 10th, 2025 at 6:25 am
And the Lions play man at the highest rate which makes them automatically a tough matchup for us unless we have our starting receivers.
December 10th, 2025 at 6:33 am
Joe, you are stating the obvious when you said “Receivers can’t shake defenders often enough in man coverage. For much of the season, two of Mayfield’s main targets were a veteran backup and two rookies…”. Then again, it’s Mayfield’s fault that the receivers can’t shake their defenders.
The Bucs defense should at least try man defense. They might get a few stops.
December 10th, 2025 at 6:48 am
JA not sure if you watched jacob parrish get beat in man coverage over and over again sunday or not? Also not sure if you have seen zyon get beat in man coverage over and over again ALL season. Not sure if you seen old man lavonte and trash sirvocea dennis get beat in man coverage over and over again. Bucs are 16th in nfl in man coverage percentage
December 10th, 2025 at 7:13 am
It’s not just a WR separation issue, we’re seeing Baker miss on out routes from a clean pocket. Some of it is separation, don’t get me wrong, but some of it is decision making(locking onto a target) which kind of hampers the ability to read progressions to make the best throw.
Also, slot of the man coverage Baker sees has some type of pressure package attached to it, which cuts into the time he’s got to read and react to the coverage.
Add the happy feet to that, and at the very least the defense is probably banking on getting an off-platform throw, which usually leads to low % pass reps.
December 10th, 2025 at 7:39 am
Lions are the ones who figured this out. WR 4..5…6…7’s can’t overcome man, and the QB is reduced to WR screens, etc. Is easy to see on ALL-22, they just don’t get separation. I expect by now Mayfield’s head is messed up
December 10th, 2025 at 7:50 am
Baker has proved he is a 30-35mill QB not 50-60mill qb .
December 10th, 2025 at 7:57 am
@Beej
Lions did that to us with a secondary full of reserves.
KC Chiefs did the same to us last year when our best targets were out.
We went a whole half without a completion to a WR.
You know what you call a QB who needs his top tier talent around to be his best?
A system QB.
December 10th, 2025 at 7:58 am
Journeymen QB throwing to backup receivers what do you expect?
December 10th, 2025 at 7:58 am
He is also last in the league in passing efficiency since week 7. Behind McCarthy, Dillion, Shough, Smith, Ward, Fields, Mills. All part of the huge problem plaguing this terribly coached team.
December 10th, 2025 at 8:08 am
Warren Brooks Lynch … ‘Add the happy feet to that, and at the very least the defense is probably banking on getting an off-platform throw, which usually leads to low % pass reps.’
That’s the 2nd time I’ve seen someone write that WBL, and I have my doubts that it’s correct in Mayfield’s case. Back in 1983 the Patriots drafted a QB named Tony Eason (Rnd 1 #15) who started for them for 4 years, eventually got traded to the Jets & disappeared after that. Eason had a reputation for ‘happy feet’ that was second to none. I can remember watching him & he was the proverbial ‘dancing bear’. That’s NOT Baker.
Baker is ALWAYS looking for a way to escape. Keeping his feet moving is central to that IMO; that’s just who Baker is. Last season he completed 71.4% of his passes for 4500 yds & 41 TDs; he had no Egbuka & was missing Godwin for only 7 games. This season he’s completing 61.6% of his passes, and is on-track for 3560 yds & 26 TDs. Monstrous differences.
But I’d contend that it’s the combination of multiple factors that’ve caused that degradation in performance. Our OLine is a disaster week-in & week-out. Our current receivers aren’t getting the job done to say the least (drops & lack of separation). Baker is obviously playing hurt, and that’s impacting his throwing accuracy.
The biggest factor though is our new OC and how he’s NOT effectively using the weapons that made Baker excel last season … our RBs & TEs. Coen excelled at that; Grizz not so much.
Last season our RBs were targeted 121 times & caught 107 of those (88.4%) for 894 yds & 7 TDs. Our TEs were targeted 107 times & caught 75 of those (70.1%) for 803 yds & 6 TDs.
This season, through 13 games, our RBs & TEs have been targeted less & are much less productive. Projecting what they’ve done over a 17-game season, our RBs will have been targeted 94 times & caught 84 of those (89.4%) for 582 yds & 5 TDs. Our TEs will have been targeted 90 times & caught 61 of those (68.3%) for 577 yds & 0 TDs.
Put those 2 groups together (as receivers) and they accounted for 1697 yds & 13 TDs last season. This season (projected) they’ll be at 1159 yds & only 5 TDs. MAJOR DIFFERENCES. The 2 groups have been targeted a LOT less this season (184) as opposed to last season (228) even though their composite catch percentage is essentially the same (78.8% this season versus 79.8% last season).
December 10th, 2025 at 8:18 am
@Defense Rules
Respect the response, but there’s been instances of Baker himself every year he’s been here talking about being on top of his own footwork.
Sure, some of the time he’s under pressure, and some of the time his undiscipline feet paired with limited visibility makes it so he has to be on the move or his goose’ll get cooked.
There’s no stats you can point anyone toward to display that, but I do enjoy your rather informative approach as a poster.
December 10th, 2025 at 8:21 am
WarrenBrooks and his wife, RodMunch didn’t get the news that through all the injuries Mayfield trails only Goff for most TD passes in last two seasons through Dec 10, 2025.
December 10th, 2025 at 8:27 am
Happy feet. Ha.
QBs are taught to keep their feet active. To be ready to move and set your platform for throwing.
All the greats were light on their feet -Montana, Brady, and Brees. The plodders always have bad throws because they just stood there planted. This was Leftwich when he played. And to a good extant, Trask.
December 10th, 2025 at 8:31 am
“QBs are taught to keep their feet active. To be ready to move and set your platform for throwing.”
This would explain his point precision, and how his accuracy excels in spite of him missing targets from a clean pocket.
Gipper,
Baker is married with children brother, he’s not going to bed you
December 10th, 2025 at 8:44 am
“Sometimes I process information pretty quickly and my feet get out of whack a little bit,” Mayfield said. “Obviously, when it comes down to playing football, you can always run for a first down, whatever you’ve got to do. But not drifting in the pocket, not putting extra stress on these guys up front, and just going through it in a balanced setting and just trying to handle it the best way possible.”
-Baker Mayfield on his own footwork from an article Joe himself wrote & posted June of ’24
December 10th, 2025 at 9:12 am
It’s rookie receivers as well as BAD ROUTE CONCEPTS by Grizzard…
I’ve been chirping all year about the route concepts.
Wayyyyyy too vanilla!!
The Ebuka double move last week was creative and he was wide-a$$ open on that dropped touchdown….
If we have any chance of winning tomorrow nite, Grizzard needs to put his creativity hat on when scheming routes..
December 10th, 2025 at 9:20 am
There is absolutely NO EXCUSE for what happened last week! The defense had minimal effort throughout the game. The offense made no adjustments–Running Bucky did not work but running White and Tucker did yet Gizzard ran Bucky anyway even though he was hurt–No adjustments were made. Please stop making the injury excuses for this incredibly bad to below mediocre defense and offense. There is no excuse–this reflects on both Bowles and Licht. TIME FOR A RESET.
December 10th, 2025 at 9:23 am
sorry Joe-I may of stuck my comment on the wrong post.
December 10th, 2025 at 9:39 am
WBL
agree…
great post(s)
GO BUCS!!!!
December 10th, 2025 at 10:00 am
I think you count on your hands the time Mayfield has had a clean pocket…. You got to develop a pocket before you can say he has a clean pocket. It seems always he is having to jig and jag before any semblance of a pocket exists. I got a good fix for the Bucs, don’t resign Mayfield.
December 10th, 2025 at 10:21 am
Warren Brooks Lynch … “Sometimes I process information pretty quickly and my feet get out of whack a little bit,” Mayfield said.
Great quote, and I suspect that evey QB who’s ever played the game could say exactly the same thing. I also suspect that footwork is the hardest thing for any QB to master. The part that Baker tacked on … ‘you can always run for a first down, whatever you’ve got to do’ … THAT’S Baker right there. Not all that many QBs can say that.
And by the way WBL, I enjoy your responses very much. I particularly enjoy responses where folks ‘look outside the box’ and identify reasons why certain things might be happening and how they impact ‘the BIG PICTURE’. This has been an especially disastrous year from an injuries perspective (offensive side inparticular), and I’m not sure if even Sean McVay & his staff could’ve done much better than our current 7-6. But this team is in freefall right now, and I’m not even sure we can pull off a winning season. It is time for a change.
December 10th, 2025 at 10:49 am
WBL,
Baker Mayfield is one of the most exciting players in the NFL. Always fun to watch. Most get that except you and Munch. On Sundays you and Munch should just watch replays of Tom Brady games and hug each other. Real fans know that the entire offense including Mayfield has been beaten up for most of the year. Just climb back into your own underappreciated cave. For those of us who are realists, you never know how great it is on the highest mountain until you have been in the deepest valley.
December 10th, 2025 at 10:56 am
“It’s time for a change”. DR, it’s not quite time for a change. Almost. Like horseshoes and hand grenades. With last week’s injuries the outlook is even more bleak. If the momentum doesn’t swing we’re going to be looking at some major changes. If our offensive weapons are healthy and we open up the playbook and quit worrying about turnovers ( playing not to lose ) we could throw ourselves right back in the mix. If this offense could get any semblance of on a roll our defense can play pretty good complementary football. I think the tide will turn.
December 10th, 2025 at 11:06 am
@Gipper, that sounds like a crock of s%*t you cooked up just now. I say Baker has footwork issues, you pull cumulative stats out your butt to refute that in response.
@Defenses Rules
“Great quote, and I suspect that evey QB who’s ever played the game could say exactly the same thing. I also suspect that footwork is the hardest thing for any QB to master.”
We literally had a +40 year old QB who went nowhere to play football without his QB coach and nutrionist, mind you this guy was a QB who like most of the elite talent in this league at the position worked on his craft even away from his job. We do not, and I personally haven’t even heard Baker mention his throwin/QB coach by name.
So my reaction to that as a fan is, does he not take the footwork serious enough or has he made it this far in his career without fully correcting it that the results(pay & job opportunity) outweigh the remedy?
In a response to a comment yesterday, referenced Brady-Gabbert-Trask having those touch pass drills with tossing passes into buckets at different points on a practice field. Not ONCE have I heard that from Mayfield in his +2 years, is it evidence that he doesn’t work on that part of his game? Not fully, but not seeing or hearing about him fine tuning that leaves space for the question to be a valid one.
I think he runs, partly because it’s habitual, partly because he feels pressure pre & post-snap, but also because I think he’s not really equipped to stand “tall” scan, scan, and throw. That first option isn’t there, he’s taking off, but as we’ve seen from the QB position that’s not a sustainable way of operating a successful offense in todays’ NFL. Makes for some great moments, and memorable instance, but not enough for an offensive identity.
December 10th, 2025 at 11:54 am
WBL,
Key word is you ”think.” You don’t have the foggiest notion what a QB sees in 2.5 seconds looking downfield with 4 or 5 or 6 defenders looking to assault you. Would have been tough working for or with a guy like you who knows what other people are thinking.
‘
‘think.”
December 10th, 2025 at 12:36 pm
@Gipper
You combat a capability critique with a cumulative stat about TDs, you’re brain must be made of top ramen