Advanced Stats Not Kind To Bucs
December 11th, 2025
Covering Bijan Robinson?
A spreadsheeter who works for Amazon and specifically deals with Thursday Night Football had a couple of alarming nuggets about the Bucs, both on offense and defense.
Regular readers know Joe has several times noted sacks are drive-killers. Less than seven percent of possessions in which an offense suffers a sack ends in a touchdown.
Well, for the Bucs, it is worse. Much worse. Try never.
Per Sam Schwartzstein, as he told Tom Pelissero of NFL.com, the Bucs are the lone offense in the NFL this season that has not scored a touchdown after eating a sack. So basically, if an opponent sacks Baker Mayfield, you can just get up to get a beer and not have to worry about missing something.
Then it was time for a nasty Bucs defensive stat. No linebacker unit in the NFL gives up more receiving yards when a quarterback targets a linebacker, per Schwartzstein
(Joe tried to find this stat online. Good luck if you can. But while mining, Joe did stumble upon how the Bucs are the fifth-worst team giving up receiving yards.)
So Schwartzstein believes that tonight, if the Dixie Chicks have any common sense, Kirk “509” Cousins should be targeting Bijan Robinson in the pass game all night long.
Schwartzstein had a moment of laughter when he said if the Dixie Chicks were savvy they would line up Bijan Robinson against Lavonte David on pass plays mainly because David is old. Schwartzstein said he played against David in high school and they are both the same age.
“So that makes [David] old,” Schwartzstein said.
Good thing the Bucs have a defensive coach for a head coach.
December 11th, 2025 at 12:13 am
So then it was time for a nasty Bucs defensive stat. Per Schwartzstein no linebacker unit in the NFL gives up more receiving yards when a quarterback targets a linebacker than the Bucs.
———
Are they counting edge rushers as DE’s or LB’s? If they’re LB’s, I have no doubt that it’s probably a true stat.
If it’s just ILB’s in the stat, yeah, sorry to say it, but it’s still likely true or close to it. In addition to all those early season whiff’s by Dennis (who has improved but still is good for a few boneheaded plays a game), you do see guys get to the edge more on David than ever before – time is catching up with him. He’s not awful or anything, but looks average more this year than I’ve ever seen before.
I’d say with Dennis out the solution this week might be to use Winfield basically in a roaming LB role – but with Smith also out, that removes that possibility.
This game could be a real mess on defense, which is why we need Baker to finally show-up. If the offense isn’t good for more than 20 points, this team isn’t winning many games.
December 11th, 2025 at 12:19 am
‘Good thing the Bucs have a defensive coach for a head coach.’
That is one of the absolute worst DCs in the league….
Klint Kubiak will make a great replacement as HC… Him of Monken!
December 11th, 2025 at 12:33 am
Tye Says:
December 11th, 2025 at 12:19 am
‘Good thing the Bucs have a defensive coach for a head coach.’
That is one of the absolute worst DCs in the league….
————–
Bucs defensive rankings…
10th in points again
12th in yards
This is like the nonsense of claiming the Bucs defense lost the game on Sunday vs the Saints when they literally made a stop and gave the ball to Baker with 2 minutes left and chance to win the game. The same defense that gave up TD drives after the Saints got the ball at their own 46, the Bucs 48 and the Bucs 46.
It’s fake news to constantly whine and complain about the defense. The Bucs are on this losing streak mainly because the QB has been playing terrible football, including throwing for 122 yards and an INT this last Sunday.
If Baker doesn’t snap out of it, the team has no chance. The money on the team was spent on offense, and it needs to not depend on the defense allowing less than 20 points a game to win.
Good news though, with all his weapons back, I actually think Baker will have a big game tomorrow. BIG game, take the over on everything. I’m putting my money on it.
December 11th, 2025 at 12:34 am
Deion Jones is going to ball out.
He’s going to prove me right.
That he should have been starting since week 1.
December 11th, 2025 at 12:50 am
He said “linebackers.”
The video is linked above.
December 11th, 2025 at 1:07 am
i agree with rod on baker…
i think he has a big game tomorrow, with the 2nd half becoming a little bit of a shoot out…
cousin kirk is gonna be super confident coming in…and he will be slinging it…!
but i think we counter everything they do and muster up enough for victory in a mild shootout…
a mild shootout is like a soft rebuild…not a true shoot out, but remnants of a freakin’ shootout…
lavonte has been quietly getting a pass, but now people are starting to bring it to the surface…
(of course no one wants to, that’s our guy)
if baker has a sh!t game, this is the game where the real scrutiny begins for him
December 11th, 2025 at 1:38 am
Rod … ‘The Bucs are on this losing streak mainly because the QB has been playing terrible football, including throwing for 122 yards and an INT this last Sunday.’
Agree that Baker’s performance is ONE factor Rod, but only ONE. This team is in meltdown mode on offense, defense AND Special Teams. Coaching in all 3 phases has been abysmal this season. Our manning in all 3 phases has shown major deficiencies, and especially when it comes to DEPTH.
For his part, Baker is throwing at at full 10% LESS completion rate than he did last season (61.6% vs 71.4%). That’s HUGE, but it doesn’t all fall on Baker. Our OLine has been in shambles all season. Our premier WR (ME13) has missed all but 4 games, and another of last year’s starters (McMillan) has missed the entire season. Godwin has only played in 5 games, so we’re left with several receivers who aren’t exactly #1s or #2s. Our premier RB (Bucky) has only played in 6 games. And to make matters worse, we’ve got a new OC who’s still trying figure out what OJT means.
I’m not saying that Baker is the ‘be-all-and-end-all’ but his performance last season (71% completions, 4500 yds & 41 TDs) showed me what he’s capable of with a decent supporting cast and quality OC. And in terms of his running to keep plays alive, he’s actually doing almost identical this season to what he did in 2024. Last season Baker ran 60 times for 378 yds, 3 TDs & 21 first downs. This season he’s on-track to run 56 times for 373 yds, 2 TDs & 27 first downs. Losing, like winning, is almost always a team effort.
December 11th, 2025 at 1:54 am
Opponents have the formula. Target the middle. LBs are not defending the pass. It’s like they aren’t even there. It gets worse when you drop an OLB into coverage.
The big thing for me is this has been the problem for at least two years now. going back to Diva White! Still it seems we can’t or won’t figure out how to stop it!
Go Bucs!
December 11th, 2025 at 2:24 am
If someone held a gun to my head and forced me to pick a winner for this game and said that I get shot if the team I pick loses, I think I would have to pick the Falcons.
Sad, but true.
December 11th, 2025 at 2:35 am
There are so many ways that teams can abuse this defense that they don’t even need to focus on the most glaring holes until they feel like exposing them.
If every team just wanted to set a recieving record for their running backs against the Bucs, they could, but then nobody else would get to have big stats for that game too, so they share the love.
December 11th, 2025 at 2:55 am
I’ve never understood why we don’t do more dime packages and why it’s taken so long to get Izien on the field. That guy would start on several current NFL teams.
December 11th, 2025 at 3:14 am
Defense Rules Says:
December 11th, 2025 at 1:38 am
Rod … ‘The Bucs are on this losing streak mainly because the QB has been playing terrible football, including throwing for 122 yards and an INT this last Sunday.’
Agree that Baker’s performance is ONE factor Rod, but only ONE.
———–
I’ve mostly given Baker slack all this year for injuries around him being responsible for his lack of production. However, come on, at some point, enough is enough. On Sunday, it was on him, he lost the game, the ball was in his hands, vs a terrible team, and he blew it. Meanwhile the headlines after the game are about how the defense, who gave up 260 yards, forced a TO and had 3 sacks, didn’t do its job, even as it made a huge stop to get the ball back to Baker with a chance to win the game.
Enough is enough with this nonsense about nothing being his fault (not talk about you, just in general). Baker is supposed to be an MVP caliber QB, and he’s coming off a 122 yard passing game. It’s OK to call him out.
Also, as I said above, I think tonight is the game where he finally snaps out of it. He should have a near full cast around him, and the Bucs HAVE to win. I honestly think he’s going to get it done, I’m laying money on him, starting him everywhere in fantasy. I honestly hope they try to get Mike some big yards, at least it would give the offense a purpose, a goal, maybe that’s what they need. But in any case, it’s now or never. If Baker wants that huge new deal, he needs to get on an all-time hot streak to end the season and carry it into the playoffs. It’s time to hit the afterburners.
December 11th, 2025 at 3:21 am
capebuc Says:
December 11th, 2025 at 2:55 am
I’ve never understood why we don’t do more dime packages and why it’s taken so long to get Izien on the field. That guy would start on several current NFL teams.
———
While I disagree on Izien being starting material for many other teams, I will agree with you in using him more in dime. I think his biggest issue is speed, he’s borderline for a safety, which I think limits him quite a bit. But if he added a few pounds, he might get some more playing time as a hybrid LB. He’s a good tackler, and in more of a LB role, he’d be a very good coverage guy. He’s listed a 5′ 11″ 200lbs, so if he was able to put on 15-20 pounds, he’d still be very small for a pure LB, but in that hybrid role he might do well. Considering all the depth issues at LB, it’s worth a shot. I’d also be OK with using him at safety and using Winfield in that hybrid role since he’s a beast when he’s actually allowed to play and isn’t just told to stand around in zone.
December 11th, 2025 at 3:21 am
I usually read the comments… And then I see this rod munch. His love for our QB is astonishing! Guess I’ll just read the article from now on.
December 11th, 2025 at 3:45 am
How can Anyone defend a Defense that gives up 24 to a team that Averages 12….. The Defense Sucks! I will blame it, and Anyone who thinks it is all the QBs fault is a @%#$ing moronic old fart…
December 11th, 2025 at 4:16 am
Cape Buc
I was calling for a dime, 1 LB defense since the pre-season!
I want Izien on the field too!
He hits hard. He plays with his hair on fire. He causes turnovers.
Deion Jones and Izien need to take SVD’s snaps.
Bowles was too loyal to KJ Britt. Now he’s being too loyal to SVD.
December 11th, 2025 at 6:29 am
Rod Munch Says:
December 11th, 2025 at 12:33 am
Bucs defensive rankings…
10th in points again
12th in yards
^^^^^^^^^^
Rod, you read that wrong, they’re 23rd in points allowed, 21st in yardage allowed.
This defense doesn’t pass the smell test.
December 11th, 2025 at 6:30 am
What is so weird is WE CONTAINED MCCAFFREY! He’s like the hardest RB of all to cover. We had a plan to counter all those clearing option routes and it worked.
It’s really ultra SPEED running backs that kill us- like Gibbs and Robinson. And Achane who we will also see soon… running backs that can get wide and run to the sidelines and get around our linebackers.
December 11th, 2025 at 6:30 am
Rod – Baker isn’t playing well like most of the team. Like always the QB gets the blame. Funny thing though, It wasn’t Baker running into the center of the line on the 46 or the 48 or the 46. Maybe he could have played better on the final drive but the plays and the blocking could have been better too.
December 11th, 2025 at 6:33 am
Part of our LB problems are ANGLES. we take the wrong angles or one step too much forward then it’s a foot race instead of just driving the RB to the sidelines and and over it. Our defense takes bad angles. I’ve seen almost everyone do it but especially the LBers..
December 11th, 2025 at 6:36 am
We don’t need advanced stats to know that this team has fallen off a cliff. We have eyes and we see it every week for the last 2 months. Bowles is clueless. Grizzard is clueless. ST coach is clueless. This is their last rodeo. We’ve seen enough of this absolutely awful staff.
December 11th, 2025 at 6:40 am
As far as our offense we need to see wide receiver separation statistics this year vs. last year. I bet there’s a HUGE difference.
December 11th, 2025 at 7:22 am
Evans and MacMillan were our biggest separators last year at #2 and #6 in the entire NFL! That’s what Baker has been missing.
December 11th, 2025 at 7:23 am
His last year 😞