Bucs Still On Track For Playoffs But Bye Unlikely
November 12th, 2025
Just a couple of weeks ago the Bucs were looking like a team that would have a bye in the NFC playoffs, and maybe a shot at the No. 1 seed.
But the computers at the New York Times-owned The Athletic now have a very different view of the Bucs: Instead of an NFC powerhouse and perhaps a Super Bowl contender, the Bucs are a massive pretender that will win just four more games this season — still the best team in an otherwise lousy division with almost no shot at a bye or a Super Bowl appearance.
The Bucs have a 90 percent chance of a playoff berth and an 88 percent chance of winning the division. That’s about all there is to it, per The Athletic.
If the Bucs win at Buffalo on Sunday and at Los Angeles next week, Joe is guessing these calculations will flip.
But the way the Bucs have played against two good teams the past month, Detroit and New England, no way Joe’s betting the Bucs can or will win these next two games.
Todd Bowles beating Sean McVay on the road in primetime? Talk about a stacked deck.
November 12th, 2025 at 12:38 am
Given how poor this team does under Bowles after the bye, I don’t want that top seed.
November 12th, 2025 at 12:53 am
When you think you know, you really don’t.
Who picked Miami to win last week?
Buffalo is not better. Get to Allen and they are done.
November 12th, 2025 at 1:16 am
Let’s revisit this subject in 2 weeks when we’re sitting at 6-5. (Most-likely)
November 12th, 2025 at 1:29 am
Bucs will probably be the #4 seed unless the Rams, San Fran and Seattle beat each other up and no team in that division takes a firm lead and the Bucs grab the 3 seed. Either way, the Bucs probably get a team from the NFC West or the second place team behind Detroit in the wild card game at RJS. Depending on the match-up they could win only to have to travel to Philly or Detroit or it is one and done again. We shall see. Right now just figure out how to avoid a 1-4 skid but alas, having a mid-season flop and getting worked coming out of the bye are 2 of Bowles’ serious flaws which have never been corrected. I hope the Glazers are noticing.
November 12th, 2025 at 1:50 am
I agree most likely the 4th seed playing the 2nd place NFC West team… unless they all rack up some extra losses from playing each other and we slip into 3rd. The Rams look for real. Don’t see us catching the Eagles or Lions considering they own head to head tie breakers either.
November 12th, 2025 at 2:16 am
Well, i called what i saw at the bye….3 L’s and win out. But i hope we win them the rest of the way. GM’s and HC’s need to pay more attention to the bettors and figure out whats going wrong sooner rather than later….action instead of reaction.
Or maybe they dont care much, i dont know.
November 12th, 2025 at 2:21 am
Typical year by this time !
November 12th, 2025 at 3:30 am
Todd Bowles = 1 and done. Nothing changes.
November 12th, 2025 at 3:54 am
The Athletic … ‘Instead of an NFC powerhouse and perhaps a Super Bowl contender, the Bucs are a massive pretender that will win just four more games this season’.
They could be right (10-7 overall), although I still think that 11-6 is within reach. Even IF we lose the next 2 games (6-5), we SHOULD be able to win 4-5 of our last 6 games.
But there’s a key, and it’s NOT the Bucs’ offense. Our Bucs’ defense is physically in better shape right now than our offense, and it needs to do 1 thing much better: GET THE POINTS ALLOWED PER GAME DOWN. Right now we’re allowing 22.9 PPG to rank #14 in the NFL. That’s unaceptable. IF we maintain that rate, that’d end up being 389 Points Allowed on the season, worse than any year we’ve had since 2019 (and just a tad worse than last year).
I’m not seeing the big plays on defense that I’ve seen in years past for the most part. But this defense has been fairly consistent in one way: it’s given up 83 points in our 3 losses (27.7 PPG average) but only 123 points (20.5 PPG) in our 6 wins. So better defensive play … the equivalent of 1 TD LESS Allowed in our wins … made a difference. Hit that same goal for the rest of the season against our scheduled opponents, and we SHOULD be able to finish 10-7 or 11-6, win the NFC South, and who knows what condition we’ll be in by the playoffs. It’s still one game at a time.
November 12th, 2025 at 4:42 am
Please, please beat the Bills on Sunday!
ModHairKen – Absolutely, get to Joshie all day long and we get the win!
November 12th, 2025 at 5:16 am
If we couldn’t lay a hand on Maye i doubt we will get close to Allen either
November 12th, 2025 at 5:59 am
Bills can’t stop the run,,, 200 yards rushing game ,, we get back to old school
November 12th, 2025 at 6:24 am
Based on the way the Bucs have played recently, I’d say the Athletic is right. The team’s focus right now should be on winning the division. Forget a first round bye. That’s over! However, once we get into the playoffs, we should have Bucky and Chris back Perhaps McMillan as well. The added bonus would be having Evans back. If just a couple of those guys are back on the field, our chances of doing damage in the playoffs increases significantly. Don’t think we’ll reach the SB, but who knows what may unfold if we can field a healthy team.
November 12th, 2025 at 6:47 am
Agree….Bowles is about to go into one of his mid season slumps. This team is built to ride the offense and our offense is missing three key weapons. Grizzard is no offensive wizard the way Coen was. He’s good enough if he’s got all our guys but I don’t think he’s out scheming opponents. Our defense is boom or bust, we live by the blitz, if it’s not getting to the QB, our defense is exposed. We’ve strategically let teams score simply because we can’t actually get a stop so our offense can potentially have enough time to save us. That’s not going to be good enough in the playoffs. Eventually the Bucs must decide if first rd exits are good enough or are we genuinely trying to win championships.
November 12th, 2025 at 7:09 am
Joe, if Bowles has no shot of beating McVay on the road, what’s the point of having him as our head coach? His defense at home let us down against McVay in the championship game. Got out guessed by McVay they went on to win the SB. So if Bwoles isn’t up to beating the McVay’s of the NFL, shouldn’t we hire someone who can?
November 12th, 2025 at 7:21 am
imo, we play better on the road for whatever reason….i think we’ll bounce back in BUF…
the year we won the SB with Brady, i dont think we beat a “good” team outside of GB…we got snacked against the saints twice, Bills, Rams and KC…
remember, we havent lost back to back games yet this year!!!!
GO BUCS!!!!!!
November 12th, 2025 at 7:34 am
This team is destined to lose after a bye. I understand taking a mental break but I hope they aren’t being irresponsible. They still get paid a ton of money to be professional
November 12th, 2025 at 7:46 am
the goal was to win 2 out of the next 3 coming out of the bye…
now 1 out of 3 seems more logical…
if such is the case, we’re only one game down on the 2 out of 3 scenario…it’s not the end of the world if we hit our stride after that…
who’s to say we don’t heat up and win the next 2…it’s possible…
but we are a hot mess if we lose the next 2 – and that’s possible too…
hang on tight little bucaroos, it’s gettin’ crazy !
remember we are the bucs – and that means there is never ever smooth sailing 🙂
November 12th, 2025 at 7:57 am
Y’all are crazy assuming the Bucs get the #4 seed like that’s automatic. The Stinking Panthers could very well beat the Bucs twice. And Atlanta again, they nearly took the Bucs to the brink. With all these injuries, this may well not be a playoff team. There is no amount of talent Todd Bowles can’t squander.
November 12th, 2025 at 7:57 am
Playoffs…..Playoffs?!!!
November 12th, 2025 at 8:00 am
We definitely seem more focused on our away games than we are on our ‘away’ games at home. I’d prefer if we do get in the playoffs, it be as a wild card away. Season ticket holders would just $ell their seat$ to the ‘visitors’.
November 12th, 2025 at 8:44 am
The Bucs are what they are due to injuries with key players on both the offense and defense.
As the season progresses the HOPE is they will be available for the playoffs.
Some good signs this could happen was Jason Licht not chasing after players from other teams.
Now it’s wait and see how this all plays out.
November 12th, 2025 at 9:23 am
Need to play complementary football from all three phases. I’m not sure the Bucs have a home field advantage, so playing on the road isn’t terrible. The biggest problem with losing the bye is not getting players back from injury.
November 12th, 2025 at 9:55 am
6-5 incoming. Bowles is NOT a great coach. He is average and his defense flat out suck. Zero pass rush. Licht owns it too.
Licht is a Brady boy. Loser GM without Tommy saving his job.
November 12th, 2025 at 3:06 pm
Allen Lofton Says:
November 12th, 2025 at 8:44 am
The Bucs are what they are due to injuries with key players on both the offense and defense.
______________________________________________
We’re missing 1 defensive starter – Kancey.
Kancey isn’t the reason that SVD, Winfield and Tykee Smith were out of position on multiple plays that turned into huge long touchdowns. Kancey isn’t the reason that Benjamin Morrison is getting abused in coverage.
The defense has NO EXCUSES.
November 12th, 2025 at 7:25 pm
78945