Bucs Still On Track For Playoffs But Bye Unlikely
November 12th, 2025
Just a couple of weeks ago the Bucs were looking like a team that would have a bye in the NFC playoffs, and maybe a shot at the No. 1 seed.
But the computers at the New York Times-owned The Athletic now have a very different view of the Bucs: Instead of an NFC powerhouse and perhaps a Super Bowl contender, the Bucs are a massive pretender that will win just four more games this season — still the best team in an otherwise lousy division with almost no shot at a bye or a Super Bowl appearance.
The Bucs have a 90 percent chance of a playoff berth and an 88 percent chance of winning the division. That’s about all there is to it, per The Athletic.
If the Bucs win at Buffalo on Sunday and at Los Angeles next week, Joe is guessing these calculations will flip.
But the way the Bucs have played against two good teams the past month, Detroit and New England, no way Joe’s betting the Bucs can or will win these next two games.
Todd Bowles beating Sean McVay on the road in primetime? Talk about a stacked deck.
November 12th, 2025 at 12:38 am
Given how poor this team does under Bowles after the bye, I don’t want that top seed.
November 12th, 2025 at 12:53 am
When you think you know, you really don’t.
Who picked Miami to win last week?
Buffalo is not better. Get to Allen and they are done.
November 12th, 2025 at 1:16 am
Let’s revisit this subject in 2 weeks when we’re sitting at 6-5. (Most-likely)
November 12th, 2025 at 1:29 am
Bucs will probably be the #4 seed unless the Rams, San Fran and Seattle beat each other up and no team in that division takes a firm lead and the Bucs grab the 3 seed. Either way, the Bucs probably get a team from the NFC West or the second place team behind Detroit in the wild card game at RJS. Depending on the match-up they could win only to have to travel to Philly or Detroit or it is one and done again. We shall see. Right now just figure out how to avoid a 1-4 skid but alas, having a mid-season flop and getting worked coming out of the bye are 2 of Bowles’ serious flaws which have never been corrected. I hope the Glazers are noticing.
November 12th, 2025 at 1:50 am
I agree most likely the 4th seed playing the 2nd place NFC West team… unless they all rack up some extra losses from playing each other and we slip into 3rd. The Rams look for real. Don’t see us catching the Eagles or Lions considering they own head to head tie breakers either.
November 12th, 2025 at 2:16 am
Well, i called what i saw at the bye….3 L’s and win out. But i hope we win them the rest of the way. GM’s and HC’s need to pay more attention to the bettors and figure out whats going wrong sooner rather than later….action instead of reaction.
Or maybe they dont care much, i dont know.
November 12th, 2025 at 2:21 am
Typical year by this time !
November 12th, 2025 at 3:30 am
Todd Bowles = 1 and done. Nothing changes.
November 12th, 2025 at 3:54 am
The Athletic … ‘Instead of an NFC powerhouse and perhaps a Super Bowl contender, the Bucs are a massive pretender that will win just four more games this season’.
They could be right (10-7 overall), although I still think that 11-6 is within reach. Even IF we lose the next 2 games (6-5), we SHOULD be able to win 4-5 of our last 6 games.
But there’s a key, and it’s NOT the Bucs’ offense. Our Bucs’ defense is physically in better shape right now than our offense, and it needs to do 1 thing much better: GET THE POINTS ALLOWED PER GAME DOWN. Right now we’re allowing 22.9 PPG to rank #14 in the NFL. That’s unaceptable. IF we maintain that rate, that’d end up being 389 Points Allowed on the season, worse than any year we’ve had since 2019 (and just a tad worse than last year).
I’m not seeing the big plays on defense that I’ve seen in years past for the most part. But this defense has been fairly consistent in one way: it’s given up 83 points in our 3 losses (27.7 PPG average) but only 123 points (20.5 PPG) in our 6 wins. So better defensive play … the equivalent of 1 TD LESS Allowed in our wins … made a difference. Hit that same goal for the rest of the season against our scheduled opponents, and we SHOULD be able to finish 10-7 or 11-6, win the NFC South, and who knows what condition we’ll be in by the playoffs. It’s still one game at a time.
November 12th, 2025 at 4:42 am
Please, please beat the Bills on Sunday!
ModHairKen – Absolutely, get to Joshie all day long and we get the win!