The Bucs And Three-And-Outs
October 1st, 2025
Offensive line coach Kevin Carberry.
This isn’t great, but it isn’t bad.
And if you peel back the onion skins, it may be better than it appears.
What is “it?” How often the Bucs’ offense exits the field after a three-and-out series.
The Bucs are middle of the pack, 15th for least amount of three-and-out rates. That’s not ideal but it sure is better than the alternative.
This actually might be good. Consider for the first three games, the Bucs played with a makeshift offensive line. Two guys were playing out of position. Two other guys, and later a third. were backups.
The Bucs haven’t dealt with this type of havoc on their offensive line, especially since the start of the season, since lousy Lovie Smith was doing his best to destroy the franchise.
So given the turmoil the Bucs have endured, still being in the upper half of the league with fewest three-and-out rates is actually a solid job.
The Eagles' offense currently leads the league in three-and-out rate: pic.twitter.com/XuA2mEl24i
— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) September 30, 2025
October 1st, 2025 at 4:59 am
And on the Brighter side, did everyone let the Second Half of our last game sink in??
Now THAT WAS IMPRESSIVE!
Come on, -1 yards was The Best the Champs could do against us in the second half?? And after the smack down we had to endure in the first half, it made the Second Half ALL THE MORE IMPRESSIVE!
It Also PROVES our “eventual” defensive Was NO ACCIDENT!
I for one am REAL PROUD of my team for THAT Stunning show of DOMINANCE against the Super Bowl champs in the second half…
I took Plenty of credit away from Bowles and company yesterday for the first half of the game. Today, I’m giving Plenty of credit back to Bowles and company for the extraordinary second half STAND…
October 1st, 2025 at 5:02 am
I know everyone wants to bash Grizz , but look at the hand he was dealt. If you would have told me that we would have this many injuries and be 3-1 i would have not believed it.. wait till we get healthy and I believe the offense will look totally different. Grizz can’t even use the tight ends right now because they have to stay in and block.
October 1st, 2025 at 5:06 am
Sounds about right for Bowles….middle of the pack. Hopefully good enough to beat the Chicks for NFC South.
October 1st, 2025 at 5:34 am
Maybe it’s me, but I have issues with a run up the middle on 2nd and 10 in your own territory. Most often it leads to a short gain and sets things for an annoying 3rd and long. Dungy was famous for this during his Tampa reign and it drove me crazy. Don’t have the stats, but I’m guessing it’s one reason we’re in the middle of the pack as 3rd down chain movers.
I scream at my wife, “Watch this. Bet ya anything this play will be a run up the middle.” Of course she doesn’t care, but I can’t remember being this frustrated dating back to Dungy.
I see this dubious, wasted down play called time and again with Grizz’s game plan. At least Dungy had an excuse because he never had a decent QB, and he did have Dunn and Alstott.
Don’t mind it so much when you’re deep in an opponents territory and an easy FG is there for the offing.
Is it me, or is this really happening? Enter Defense Rules for a tedious, but informative stat check. What say you?
October 1st, 2025 at 5:34 am
HC Grover … ‘Hopefully good enough to beat the Chicks for NFC South.’
Have seen a lot of earlier comments that just ASSUME our Bucs will win the NFC South. Whoa big fella! With this level of injuries, I wouldn’t assume anything. Our injury situation looks to be even worse than it was last season.
October 1st, 2025 at 5:35 am
I am not sure of the importance of this stat when the Titans are #3, Bengals are #4, Raiders are #6 and Jets are #7?
October 1st, 2025 at 6:11 am
JA … ‘Is it me, or is this really happening? Enter Defense Rules for a tedious, but informative stat check. What say you?’
I say no. Not gonna sucker me in on that one JA (you lost me when you interjected ‘tedious’). Bucs led the league last season with a 50.9% 3rd down conversion rate. This season we’re sitting at a measley 37.0% and ranked #22 in that category. That’s a HUGE drop and I’m sure there are multiple reasons for it.
What’s changed? Tons of stuff, including (1) a new OC; (2) a battered OLine; (3) loss of a number of key ‘weapons’. Those 3 factors alone appear to have impacted Baker’s QB playing significantly already. Example: Baker’s already rushed 14 times in 4 games for 129 yds & picked up NINE 1st downs (more 1st downs rushing than anyone else). Sounds great (a 9.2 YPC average), but it is taking a toll.
Last season we were 3-1 after 4 games. We’d rushed 94 times for 384 yds (4.1 YPC average). This season we’re also 3-1 after 4 games, but we’ve achieved it quite a bit differently (as in THREE 4th qtr comebacks for wins?). We’ve rushed quite a bit more actually … 113 times for 496 yds (4.4 YPC average).
Why? Maybe because we were missing Godwin & McMillan as WRs, plus Evans in this last game? Despite that, we’ve actually run MORE plays already this year thru 4 games (260) than we did last season (238). And yup, that 22 difference is real close to the increase in the number of rushes this season (19).
Still, thru 4 games last season Bucs had scored 97 points. Thru 4 games this season, Bucs have scored … 97 points. Coincidence? Actually yes it is (although Joe would disagree; there are no coincidences in JBF World).
October 1st, 2025 at 7:23 am
Take away Baker’s increased running and we’re 99 for 367, that’s RW ’22/’23 numbers
October 1st, 2025 at 7:30 am
YUP! Pretty much my thinking Joe. I was very surpised to see Haggard in the lineup though. Klien was not that bad it seemed to me. In Carberry we trust though.
Go Bucs!
October 1st, 2025 at 7:34 am
Haggard isn’t doing too bad, 52 pff, 2 penalties, no sacks. SLIGHTLY above average
October 1st, 2025 at 7:52 am
Grizz has been dealt a touch injury hand. He will learn and get better. However, with the makeshift line, I would like more passes where Bake get the ball out quickly. Quick passes can also target the TE’s more. Grizz has to protect Bake with his playcalling.
October 1st, 2025 at 8:11 am
Does graph/stat means nothing. Look at that graph. There are 4-0 teams and 0-4 teams on both ends of the spectrum.
October 1st, 2025 at 8:32 am
I still think we get to 5-3. 6-2 would be wonderful.
October 1st, 2025 at 8:39 am
I am kind of surprised by that 3-And-Out chart. I thought I would see a clearer correlation between wins and lower 3-And-Outs.
October 1st, 2025 at 9:08 am
“This season we’re sitting at a measley 37.0% and ranked #22 in that category. That’s a HUGE drop and I’m sure there are multiple reasons for it.
What’s changed?”
well third down guru yalie is now OC. so nothing has changed there. braintrust supertodd probably thought “well he can make it happen on third down so therefore he can do it for all downs so i’ll make him OC” and so far that was wrong.
grizzard isnt up to the task at least so far. of course he will get a pass on the whole season due to the OL situation. the crap playcalling on the run game is already taking its toll.
baker running for his life doesnt count as “rushing” in spite of what you read. egbuka going for 70+ on a semi hail mary through double coverage isnt something that was designed in a lab at yale.
the bucs are fortunate that as tough as he is baker hasnt gotten his block knocked off yet. he’s taking hits and if the game calling doesnt improve he’s likely to get knocked out one of these times.
October 1st, 2025 at 9:28 am
“So given the turmoil the Bucs have endured on the Bucs’ front line, the fact the Bucs are still in the upper half of the league with fewest three-and-out rates is actually a solid job.“
We’re top 10 in punts per game
We’re top 10 in FGs per game
We’re also bottom 3rd in Red zone scoring when it comes to TDs
We’re also bottom 3rd in Red zone scores per game
A 37% 3rd down conversion rate
4th in Average FG attempts per game
Middling in avg TDs per game.
October 1st, 2025 at 9:44 am
Not to mention they played against 3 teams who are top 10 defensively in completion percentage allowed, yards per attempt allowed and passer rating allowed. Those 3 teams are the Falcons, Texans and Eagles.
October 1st, 2025 at 10:29 am
Don’t hate on me but I’m starting to miss Coen’s play calling.
October 1st, 2025 at 11:01 am
This team misses Lain Coen, soooooooooooooooooooooooooooo bad. A day after the Washington playoff loss they should have given Liam a FAT raise or promoted him to the Head Coach position.
Todd has been here since 2019 and we’ve seen his peak
October 1st, 2025 at 11:47 am
D.R.
Thanks, I think.
Is this one of those deals where “no” means yes?
Good job … as usual!
October 1st, 2025 at 1:40 pm
When we get fully healthy we are a problem!
October 1st, 2025 at 2:02 pm
Getting harder to avoid an inconvenient truth around here.
In spite of @ least 1 Joe’s Repeated articles about how the offense wasn’t a problem, and how Todd needed to level up the defense to avoid wasting our talent, it would appear our offense – thru 4 games, IS a little bit of a problem….. 🤷🏼
And all you Liam worshippers continue to be embarrassing.
October 1st, 2025 at 2:56 pm
Jim Hennessey Says:
October 1st, 2025 at 10:29 am
Don’t hate on me but I’m starting to miss Coen’s play calling.
———————–
You’re on the wrong team blog, bud. Go back to the Jacksonville Jaguars. The spelling is radically different.
October 1st, 2025 at 3:15 pm
@GoneGator
That’s been evident at least since the Jets game. Offense gets the glory for actually coming alive at the end of the game in which they only scored 1 damn TD, but the defense gets trashed for playing 3 of 4 quarters pretty damn well in spite of the fact they contributed a TD to our scoring effort. While also giving the offense the ball back
It’s a such an ssa backward way to look at things.
Wild part is, that same defensive score gets factored into the offensive scoring output when they had nothing to do with it.
Our scoring output through 4 games w/the pick 6 & safety = 24.5 ppg
Without the pick 6 and Saftey at the end of the eagles game we’re looking at 20 ppg in the same 4 games
It gets uglier if you factor out the FGs and just look at TDs scored. 9 total TDs look like our offense is good for 15.75 ppg in 4 games, that’s is turrible
Being 3-1 with that type of scoring output it’s really not hard to tell who’s kept us in all 4 games.
October 1st, 2025 at 7:06 pm
WBL, no need to be placing blame. I am sure glad that the team knows they win or lose together. Defense bailing us out this year. That’s mostly true. And thank goodness for that! I think the biggest thing it tells me is how important continuity is on the offensive line. But I haven’t heard one player or coach blame any player or coach. We’re a good football team and we are going to win games this year. Alot of them. Watch closely WBL. And learn.
October 1st, 2025 at 10:05 pm
JASON LIGHT REALLY SCREWED UP WHEN HE DID NOT GIVE COEN THE HEAD COACH JOB. SHOULD HAVE HAD THE BALLS TO DO IT .WE COULD HAVE BUILT ON THAT GOOD OFFENCE . JAGUARS SAW THAT OFFENCE AND JUMPED ON IT FOR HEAD COACH . NOW WE HAVE A ZERO EXPERIENCED OFFENSIVE COACH SAD TO SAY . GIVING BOWLES A EXTENSION ? ARE YOU KIDDING ME .I KEEP WAITING FOR HIM TO BREAK OUT BUT THE FACT IS HE CAN ONLY TAKE US SO FAR ! SEE THE SAME THING EVERY YEAR .PLAY IT SAFE .TIME MANAGMENT .NOT PREPARED ,SLOW STARTS .ENOUGH !