Oddsmakers Smell Regression From Baker Mayfield
August 30th, 2025
The Joe typing here is almost flabbergasted by the throngs of fans and media expecting Baker Mayfield to play better than he did last season.
Do these folks realize how high Mayfield set his own bar? The guy is not Superman.
Mayfield ranked second in touchdown passes last season (41) and third in completion rate (71.4 percent). He also ranked third in total yards (4,500) and third in first-down throws 224. If he ranks sixth in all those categories this season, he’ll still be among the great QBs of the game.
Neither Josh Allen nor Patrick Mahomes threw for more than 28 touchdowns last season, or in 2023.
The Bucs need to play a lot better around Mayfield. Todd Bowles knows it, and Bucs fans should, too.
When it comes to futures wagers, Florida sportsbook Hard Rock Bet set Mayfield’s over/under on total touchdown passes this season at 29.5.
Remember, Mayfield threw 41 TDs last year.
Joe’s not advising anyone to jump on this wager, or to ignore it. Just keep in mind only five quarterbacks threw 30 or more touchdowns last season. That total was four in 2023.
August 30th, 2025 at 5:28 pm
Wouldn’t be surprising. What he did last year, only two other QBs have ever done.
August 30th, 2025 at 5:32 pm
It’s hard to complete 71.4 percent of your passes. If they push the ball downfield it will go down instead of dink and dunk high percentage routes. I can’t even hit the toilet 71.4 percent of the time.
August 30th, 2025 at 5:54 pm
I’m glad he beat out Kyle!
Man that was close.
August 30th, 2025 at 5:57 pm
Good point Dewey.
August 30th, 2025 at 5:59 pm
@ Dewey: I often find myself dinking and dunking at the toilet.
August 30th, 2025 at 6:20 pm
Everyone thought he would regress last year after a break out 2023. He’s gonna be better, just watch.
August 30th, 2025 at 6:20 pm
Baker is a big part of the offense but he needs the OL and receivers to play well too. Grizz is a rookie play caller that will impact Baker too. If Bucky and the run game really take off then there may be more rushing TDs and fewer passing ones this year. I care about points and this offense is very capable of being number 1 in points.
August 30th, 2025 at 6:56 pm
I expect some regression, Mayfield has been up and thus far.
August 30th, 2025 at 7:05 pm
Jimbo. Baker has a good running game with good receivers and he’s not ask to throw 45 times a game up the field Baker has no more excuses. He has to better in the playoffs. And I will also say this every team Lee Carso pick has won today. That’s a big coincidence!! Lol 🤣
August 30th, 2025 at 7:15 pm
He threw for a 41 touchdowns and his three top receivers missed 17 games between them.
August 30th, 2025 at 7:36 pm
He’s gonna need to throw for 45 for the Bucs to have a chance with the modified Swiss cheese defense.
August 30th, 2025 at 7:36 pm
No worries we got Blooper Bilgewater just in case.
August 30th, 2025 at 7:43 pm
If our D is strong and we successfully run the ball, Baker could very well have a regression – which would be a great thing. Who cares if he throws the most TDs if we running over people.
August 30th, 2025 at 8:01 pm
Enough speculation, the season can’t start soon enough. Soon everyone’s predictions, and opinions will be based in reality.
August 30th, 2025 at 8:01 pm
A few less Mayfield TD passes hopefully means more rushing touchdowns !!
Go Bucs 2025 !
August 30th, 2025 at 8:16 pm
No reason to think Baker can’t equal his numbers from last or improve upon them.
If Jameis can throw for 5000 yards, Baker definitely can.
And 40+ TD passes and like a given with our stud WR’s.
70% completion percentage would be awesome to achieve again.
And he most-likely will have fewer INT’s and fewer fumbles this year.
So, I see improvement coming. And definitely possible, Joe.
*side note, I don’t think our run game will be as good this year unfortunately.
August 30th, 2025 at 8:33 pm
What is the OU on Kyle Trask TD passes? (Asking for someone who is dumb)
August 30th, 2025 at 8:36 pm
Regression? Not going to happen. Mayfield is the guy who outdueled Patrick Mahommes in the greatest college shootout of all time. Oklahoma beats Texas Tech and Mahommes with Baker throwing 7 TD passes. If you think Mike Evans won’t be getting a lot of touches in 2025, put down your pipe. If ME stays healthy, he will have 1500yards and 15TD’s. Ebuka will pick up early season slack until Godwin and McMillan return. Baker 45 TD’s in 2025 to go with 4800 yrds and 70% comp. Bucs finish 12-5 and play in NFC Championship. Book it.
August 30th, 2025 at 8:47 pm
More yardage is definitely possible. More TDs could happen. Less picks = sure.
Completion % will be hard to match but improved overall QB play from Baker including more wins is what I expect….. Not worried.
August 30th, 2025 at 9:10 pm
It’s essentially his second year in the offense and this is a dude who has almost NEVER had the same OC for two years in a row. And that’s after he cheated by studying ahead at his time with the Rams. He should and will have a better grasp of the nuances of this offense and it will help. Oh yeah, this applies to the rest of the returning offensive players as well. Less thinking and more instinctual play.
They may well not be better, but there is ABSOLUTELY a reason to believe they can.
August 30th, 2025 at 9:11 pm
Right on Gipper!!!
August 30th, 2025 at 9:21 pm
Joe, it’s not really a regression if the Vegas boys have Baker throwing the 2nd most TDs in the league. He’s at 29.5. Burrow’s at 33.5. Herbert is 22.5. Mahommes, Jackson and Allen are 26-28.5. The oddsmakers have Baker throwing for the second most TDs in the league. Maybe a more savvy reader could confirm whether that’s right. So if the line has Baker’s over/under 29.5 on TDs they have him second highest in the league. Absolutely not regression. I’ll bet they had him at 24 last year.
August 30th, 2025 at 9:50 pm
Baker is going over 5k yards and 50 tds this year if we can keep at least two good WR healthy at all times.
August 30th, 2025 at 9:54 pm
Joe…greetings from the great Northwoods. I heard your discussion with Ira as to why Micah Parsons wasn’t the right move for the Bucs. I think you guys are right. But…. he is the right move for the Packers, and I’ll explain why…. 1. The pass rush was arguably the greatest weakness on the team and now it should have one of the best pash rush tandems in the league. When you can turn your greatest weakness into a strength, it is hard to pass up. 2. They are in a division with two teams with potent passing games, and success without a substantial and disruptive pass rush is practically the kiss of depth. The team is the youngest team in the league and can’t afford to regress into a “good enough to compete” but never good enough to have high draft pick mode to pick a premier pass rusher. 3. The Packers have young talent at every position in a developmental stage and have had multiple high picks from the AR trade, leaving them with a great deal of young talent at a number of positions, at lower salaries, allowing some cap opportunities. They got rid of a 30-year-old D lineman and replaced him with a 26-year-old likely HOF player. It is a gamble, as is every transaction. But for the Packers, it is very logical.
August 30th, 2025 at 10:34 pm
They want him to collapse so badly just so they can bash him again
August 30th, 2025 at 10:57 pm
The highest-rated playoff passer in NFL history, with a 105.9 passer rating, 12 TDs to 3 INTs and averaging 268 yards per game, needs to be better in the playoffs.
August 30th, 2025 at 11:04 pm
Assuming the defense improves, I expect him to perform at a similar level but with fewer turnovers.
August 30th, 2025 at 11:06 pm
I would expect somewhat of a regression just based on the law of averages, considering how good his season was last year. But LOL at writing this article like 2 stories after saying this about Baker:
“Or, what happens if Mayfield is better?
Remember, last year was Mayfield’s first season not just with then-offensive coordinator Liam Coen, but with Bucs’ third-down strategist Josh Grizzard. That same third-down strategist returns this year leading the offense.
So Mayfield already knows what Grizzard wants on third downs and very likely Grizzard has expanded on the foundation he worked on with Mayfield last year.
While Mayfield was superb last year, who says he can’t get better?”
August 30th, 2025 at 11:16 pm
I smell bull. I’m picking mayfield for mvp, especially when all 3 wr’s get healthy.
August 30th, 2025 at 11:37 pm
He can play soooo much better. Just getting started with this unit. Go Bowles!
August 31st, 2025 at 1:09 am
Todd teaches regression techniques. He excels at it.
August 31st, 2025 at 3:25 am
He better play A LOT better. Can’t lead the league in INT’s and turnovers AGAIN.
August 31st, 2025 at 4:43 am
Baker is only getting better. This is the guy that has played on four different teams with several different coordinators. Baker is doing pretty darn good! Forget the fancy plays though.
August 31st, 2025 at 7:49 am
Baker Mayfield projected stats by MSM haters
comp att yds td int
300 750 4575 5 100
My predictions
Bakers stats before season starts
comp att yds td int
0 0 0 0 0
****PARODY****
Why . . . . If you didn’t laugh at this then you might have a sense of humor.
August 31st, 2025 at 8:36 am
This is all about sports writers hating to Be wrong. They are hoping and praying Baker regresses so they can be right again. QBs last longer these days because of all the rules to protect them. Baker in away was a rookie 2 years ago. He finally got the Mahomes preferential treatment were he ended up with a top organization with stability and great coaching. He survived the mess that is Cleveland and it is onward and upward from here. Of course he can improve. For starters cut down on fumbles and interceptions. Keep the same other numbers and he improves.
August 31st, 2025 at 9:16 am
INTERCEPTIONS–2 YEARS
Baker Mayfield-26
Patrick Mahomes-25
Josh Allen-24
August 31st, 2025 at 9:27 am
The only people that think BM6 is going to regress are those that don’t know BM6.🏴☠️
August 31st, 2025 at 9:36 am
I’m going 30 tds on the nose, 3,908 yds passing, a 68.4 % completions rate and 15 picks, because of more risky long balls and WR deficit in alot of games….im good with all of it…screen shot this
August 31st, 2025 at 10:16 am
One More Week, I’m going crazy waiting for the first Sack. The first Touchdown by Emeka, Parrish’s Picks, and all of it y’all.. Let’s Go Bucs!!!!
August 31st, 2025 at 10:35 am
Would it be regression if Mayfield’s stats are less impressive this year, but the Bucs win more games and go deeper in the playoffs. Do you think Mahomes or Brady really cared more about stats? Stats are a means to an end. I will judge Mayfield’s season on how the Bucs finish their season.
August 31st, 2025 at 10:39 am
Orlando Buc. Bingo! As it should be. That’s why QBs make the big bucks. Winning championships. And Baker ain’t got any. Yet.
August 31st, 2025 at 12:41 pm
I took the under about a month ago. It doesn’t mean I’m down on Baker. If the running back group improves, Baker gets hurt, or our receiving corps gets decimated with injuries I can easily see him throwing 27-29 TDs.
I’m rooting for 50 TDs though.
August 31st, 2025 at 4:44 pm
I’d take the over. He has too many fabulous weapons. Some games are going to be very high scoring.
August 31st, 2025 at 11:48 pm
The first TD this season is likely to be a Penix TD pass. Better hope Baker has the ball first and works with Griz down the field. Defense is gonna do what they do, let the opponent have a gimme drive and score in the opener so the genius can figure out what they’re doing and adjust. LOL. Just like in the Washington playoff game.
September 1st, 2025 at 12:35 am
“The Joe typing here is almost flabbergasted by the throngs of fans and media expecting Baker Mayfield to play better than he did last season.”
I seem to recall a regression prediction from one of the Joes either last year or the year before? I honestly don’t recall.