Has The Bucs’ Defense Really Changed?
July 15th, 2025
Changes?
Now if the data guys have the correct numbers, this may be why the Bucs’ pass defense has been the fourth-worst in the NFL two years running, and why the pass defense, aside from one season, has ranked in the 20s since Todd Bowles arrived in 2019.
Bowles has mentioned he has to change his defense up every two or three years. Otherwise, he said, offenses will catch up.
That’s very true and very savvy of Bowles. But NFL humorist/numbers guy Mike Tanier, typing for the Aaron Schatz’s FTN Football Almanac, suggested the way Bowles is using defenders is pretty damn close to the same way he was using them in the Super Bowl-winning season in 2020.
Tanier studied player usage, via Sports Info Solutions (SIS), and noticed the defense last year was the same ol’ Bucs defense.
Head coach Todd Bowles was the defensive coordinator for the 2020 Super Bowl run. His Buccaneers blitzed on 39.0% of passing plays that year, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. Last year, Bowles’ defense blitzed 34.2% of the time, the third highest figure in the league.
Bowles’ scheme has changed so little that some defenders are playing almost the exact same roles they played five years ago. [Jamel] Dean, for example, lines up almost exclusively at right cornerback. By the end of 2020, his second NFL season, he lined up almost exclusively at right cornerback. [Antoine] Winfield, per Sports Info Solutions, blitzed 48 times in 2020. He blitzed 52 times in 2023 and 38 times last season. [Lavonte] David dropped into coverage 597 times and blitzed 83 times in 2020. He dropped into coverage 546 times and blitzed 135 times last year. Same guys, same roles.
And you know what else has been the same? With the exception of 2022, the Bucs’ pass defense has ranked in the 20s every year Bowles has been here.
Coincidence? Joe doesn’t believe in coincidences when it comes to the NFL.
Now, maybe Bowles is doing differently things up front. And maybe the changes Bowles professes to have made are much more nuanced than what SIS has picked up on. But what Tanier discovered sure has Joe’s antennae up.
July 15th, 2025 at 5:25 am
Those numbers seem to mean a whole lot of nothing. Our best coverage linebacker drops into coverage a lot? Our safety that’s good on the blitz blitzes a lot? The thing I’d want to be investigating to see if the scheme changed is what the guys outside the core stars are up to or what kind of blitz/cover we’re running.
July 15th, 2025 at 5:51 am
This can’t be true
Bowles is a defensive Guru
Must players or other coaches or possibly the weather
Bowles is the Best Coach the Bucs have ever had
(Just helping out the Bowles’ Buddies) 😜
July 15th, 2025 at 5:55 am
Tanier … ‘[Antoine] Winfield, per Sports Info Solutions, blitzed 48 times in 2020. He blitzed 52 times in 2023 and 38 times last season.’
I’d love to know where Sports Info Solutions got their stats Joe.
According to Pro-Football-Reference (PFR), using their ‘Advanced Defense’ stats for Winfield, he blitzed 45 times in 2020, only 30 times in 2023, and only 24 times in 2024. BIG disparity IMO.
And Joe, y’all keep focusing on Bowles’ pass defense being the ‘fourth-worst in the NFL two years running’. And by exclusively using ‘Passing Yards Allowed’ as the sole criteria for that assessment, you’re correct. But as a number of us have said before, there are other criteria which are obviously far more important to Todd Bowles … the most significant being POINTS ALLOWED. And that criteria tells a much different story about our defense’s effectiveness over the 2020-2024 period than PASSING YARDS ALLOWED does.
o 2020: Passing Yards Allowed: #21 … Points Allowed: #8
o 2021: Passing Yards Allowed: #21 … Points Allowed: #5
o 2022: Passing Yards Allowed: #9 … Points Allowed: #13
o 2023: Passing Yards Allowed: #29 … Points Allowed: #7
o 2024: Passing Yards Allowed: #29 … Points Allowed: #16
So in our 3 best years (2020, 2021 & 2023) Todd’s defense averaged a #7 ranking in Points Allowed but only a #24 ranking in Passing Yards Allowed. Of course in those same 3 years our Running Yards Allowed averaged a #3 ranking, giving an indication of where our defense’s priorities were (and BTW that correlates much closer to our overall Points Allowed average ranking of #7 in those 3 years).
The same holds true for the other 2 years (2022 & 2024). Our Pass Defense overall ranked higher (#19 average), but our Points Allowed average ranking was far worse (average #15 ranking). Interestingly though, our Running Yards Allowed ranking averaged #10, significantly higher than in those 2020, 2021 & 2023 years.
July 15th, 2025 at 6:15 am
BTW Joe, just came across a PFF article posted only 23 hours ago titled ‘NFL Position Rankings: Grading All 32 NFL Teams at Every Unit’. They definitely don’t think much of Tampa’s defense.
o DLine: #27 ranking (obviously don’t think much of the NFC South since they have the Panthers at #28, Falcons at #30 & Saints at #32).
o LB unit: #25 ranking (Saints ranked at #8, Falcons at #17 & Panthers at #30).
o Secondary unit: #22 ranking (Falcons ranked at #17, Saints at #20 & Panthers at #30).
Obviously PFF doesn’t think much of the Bucs’ defense.
July 15th, 2025 at 6:42 am
I don’t think those stats say much about if changes were made to the scheme.
July 15th, 2025 at 6:48 am
Thanks Defense Rules.
July 15th, 2025 at 7:06 am
It is hard to watch CBs line up 10 yards off the WR and then have the pass completed anyhow. It was frustrating to watch JTS stick to OL like Velcro. It seemed like the Bucs gave up a lot of 3rd and longs. Being unable to stop a team on 3rd down has to be demoralizing to the Offense.
But the points allowed is the only stat that matters on Defense, and as Defense Rules points out, the Bucs have been Top 10 several times and Top Half every year.
July 15th, 2025 at 7:08 am
lol! No. Betcha Todd has learned nothing. We’ll still see endless zone coverages and DB’s 15 yards off the ball.
July 15th, 2025 at 7:35 am
It is the Putrid Pass Defense that will make or break this team this year. The Offense is a Top 5. We must get a Pass Rush that can get us off the field on 3rd down or we will be watching the Super Bowl instead of playing in it again this year. It is all up to Todd and the D this year. Go BUCS!!
July 15th, 2025 at 7:38 am
Wait a minute, so he points at Dean & David basically doing what they’ve been doing since Bowles got here in 2019 and saying “aha, nothing has changed”, except for all the personnel around them do to them:
-No longer playing football
-No longer being with the Bucs
-Being injured whilst on the roster
And you’re trying to convince me “nothing has changed” with your examples being 5 years apart? Choosing the 2 of the 3 most tenured player on the defense doing their jobs as a sign of “things not changing” is hilarious to me.
July 15th, 2025 at 7:49 am
Bowles being to loyal to his coaches. Ross, and Rapone should’ve been replaced before last season, certainly before this season. They have been the one constant through all these secondary woes.
July 15th, 2025 at 7:51 am
Going to have to agree with Defense rules. He’s the voice of reason most of the time. The tweaking that needs to be done is getting off the field on third and fourth down. Seems like Bowles main goal has been stopping the run and not give up the big play. If teams aren’t able to run or throw deep, they’ll have to dink and dunk down the field, which increases yardage against the secondary.
July 15th, 2025 at 8:05 am
TB played DB. He also coached DB’s. Then DC. Then HC. I like Todd a lot but the backfield sucks.
July 15th, 2025 at 8:09 am
This year will be the telling year.
Bowles said he/they did some hardcore self-scouting this offseason, and he figured out what the ‘problem’ was and he knows how to ‘fix it’.
So, let’s see.
I suspect it was way too much Zone Coverage and not enough Press Man Coverage.
July 15th, 2025 at 8:33 am
Tanier … ‘David dropped into coverage 597 times and blitzed 83 times in 2020. He dropped into coverage 546 times and blitzed 135 times last year. Same guys, same roles.’
I admittedly don’t have access to SIS (where Tanier got his stats) because it’s rather costly, but Pro-Football-Reference (PFR) keeps similar stats (although the results seem to be quite different). PFR doesn’t keep track of how many times a player drops into coverage however like SIS apparently does, but it does keep track of blitzes.
According to PFR, LVD blitzed 65 times in 2020, and 80 times in 2024. But instead of looking at JUST LVD though, look at the combination of our TWO ILB positions … LVD & White/Minter in 2020, and LVD & Britt/SVD/Russell in 2024 when it comes to blitzing (to see if Todd Bowles changed anything regarding the ILB position group) involvement in blitzes.
o 2020: LVD – 65 blitzes … White – 91 blitzes … Minter – 8 blitzes … Total for the 3 ILB: 164 blitzes in 2020
o 2024: LVD – 80 blitzes … Britt – 23 blitzes … SVD – 12 blitzes … Russell – 9 blitzes … Total for the 4 ILB: 124 blitzes in 2024
So Todd had his ILBs blitz an average of 10.3 times per game in 2020, while he had them blitz an average of only 7.3 times per game in 2024. That’s roughly 30% LESS, which would seem significant in terms of a ‘change’. I think the reason is because he had better blitzers in 2020 (Devin White?) as opposed to 2024 (KJ Britt?).
Leads me to question Tanier’s conclusion though that ‘the way Bowles is using defenders is pretty damn close to the same way he was using them in the Super Bowl-winning season in 2020.’ Personally I think that Bowles adjusts his defensive philosophy based on the TALENT that he can put on the field. And our 2020 Super Bowl defense was far more TALENTED IMO than what we put on the field last year (and a lot more injury-free too).
July 15th, 2025 at 8:38 am
Bucnjim … ‘If teams aren’t able to run or throw deep, they’ll have to dink and dunk down the field, which increases yardage against the secondary.’
Hmmm, offenses adjusting to what a defense is giving them. Whodathunkit? Nice analysis.
July 15th, 2025 at 8:43 am
HC’s get too much credit and too much blame in all sports. QB’s are in the same boat in the NFL. Don’t know Soccer but I suspect Goalies are under the gun as well..just guessing.
Todd Bowles is a SB winning Player, a SB winning DC, and now looking for the trifecta of SB winning HC.
He is far from perfect. And while I give respect to the “importance” of coaching the players PLAY and the coaches Coach!
Todd got VERY lucky that Baker saved the Bucs bacon and secured two guys HC jobs in the NFL. He GOT unlucky that his SB winning D was devasted by retirements, age, and cap restraints forcing Jason to choose…start with the Offense where the Bucs lost virtually EVERYBODY except for the two star receivers.
So Jason constructed a new OL, found not one but two good RB’s, and of course BAKER!!! No Baker and this is an entirely different conversation.
Hindsight is supposed to be 20/20, but not here at JBF that’s for sure.
I’ve seen guys post Todd inherited a SB defense and failed with it. Seriously?
July 15th, 2025 at 8:44 am
I’m pretty sure he likes stopping the run 1st because it keeps time of possession in our favor. Can’t say I’ve loved watching his soft zone defense but being objective we didn’t really have the safety, coverage ILB, or Edge horses to be PD dominant so Todd has made it work surprisingly well considering points allowed had typically been top 10 which is solid.
July 15th, 2025 at 8:46 am
D.R.
Obviously agree with Kenton and appreciate your efforts which produced some clarifying results and also exposed the dangers of interpreting STATISTICS.
I’m glad you’re retired and can do this for us it’s always great info presented well.
July 15th, 2025 at 8:48 am
Eric
Kudos!!! An objective look! What a concept. Some guys here post as if Todd had an affair with their wives.
July 15th, 2025 at 9:02 am
I think Bowles is playing old school 3 down defense…the issue is that more and more teams are going for it on 4th down…(minus the Bucs)
Go Bucs!
July 15th, 2025 at 9:42 am
StPete .. ‘I’m glad you’re retired and can do this for us’.
Wait a minute, you mean I’m NOT gonna get paid for this? Obviously I’ve reached that ‘old & senile’ phase early.
July 15th, 2025 at 9:43 am
@ the end of the season when the Bucs are Top 5 in Offense & Defense and have just finished with their greatest regular season win total ! Bowles Haters will still be calling for his head!
July 15th, 2025 at 9:56 am
“ Has The Bucs’ Defense Really Changed? “
Is the pope a woman?
Performance and results say no. Watch all 8 losses from 2024 and it will be clear to you.
Todd’s defense makes it so easy on opposing QBs because of the charmin soft, cover no one zones he employs to “avoid getting beaten deep.” It’s why any ferocious pass rush from the edge will be neutered because they’re letting the QB have the checkdown for free regardless of situation.
And for the “only points matter, yards don’t” mantra, look at statistical correlations. You keep going to that well, the reversion to the mean will happen and it will be ugly. That chicken started really coming home to roost last year and unless significant changes are really made, taught well in practice and executed in games, prepare for another ugly deterioration.
The truth is, Todd’s pass. defense has been exposed, and it sucks. Either we see a lot more press man and much tighter zones, or better hope Baker flips 40 burgers every week.
July 15th, 2025 at 10:05 am
He is a lack luster HC and quickly becoming a lack luster DC!
If Grizzard can’t make up for Bowels incompetence, then Bowels will be exposed as one of the leagues worst HC/DC…
July 15th, 2025 at 10:06 am
CROWN US!
July 15th, 2025 at 10:14 am
D.R.
You’re not getting paid but you do have the appreciation of all of us here for your efforts and I suspect Joe as well.
I volunteer at St Anthonys and this past Friday a terrific old dude of 94 tried to give me a $20 bill for showing he and his wife how to get to their appointment.
Obviously I turned it down but told him the thought meant more to me than the money anyway.
Hopefully our thoughts and appreciation can equal us all sending you a twenty. LOL
BTW if you find too much time on your hands…I’m trying to calculate the true value GM’s place on players. Millions of dollars mean NOTHING.
The stat I’d like to see is the % of CAP invested in each player, position, and position group. Then we’d really know how a team plans strategically. They’re going to spend the money regardless I’d like to know how they prioritize more specifically.
July 15th, 2025 at 10:15 am
the fact that the bucs didnt get a full time DC and extended bowles is big trouble. this season will be more of the same.
July 15th, 2025 at 10:24 am
Jimmy
I always tend to look for the bright side. In your case you should make a bundle this upcoming season betting against Bowles and the Bucs.
July 15th, 2025 at 10:27 am
You guys that keep griping about not having a DC, what are coach Rogers & coach Footes’ job titles dating back to the offseason of 2022?
July 15th, 2025 at 10:59 am
A title means nothing.
Bowls is the DC. Everyone knows it. Todd knows it. He runs the defense. He designs it. He makes the defensive calls in the games. Ask him, read his interviews. He’ll tell you.
He sucks at doing both, going back to his Jets days. Performance and results. Period.
July 15th, 2025 at 11:43 am
Wasn’t expecting an answer, just like I don’t expect pizza on the menu at a korean bbq
July 15th, 2025 at 12:34 pm
Aqualung … ‘The truth is, Todd’s pass. defense has been exposed, and it sucks.’
Like Joe, you’re cherry-picking Aqualung. I can prove anything I want based on selective statistics. True analysis IMO is being able to look at pretty much all of it and come to some reasonable conclusions. No cherry-picking needed.
Bucs’ defense is a good example. There are a LOT of different aspects that go into evaluating a defense … Pass Defense stats (multiple), Run Defense stats (multiple), Takeaways stats (multiple), plus a number of other ‘stats’ (like 3rd & 4th Down Conversions?). The PFF article I referenced earlier titled ‘NFL Position Rankings: Grading All 32 NFL Teams at Every Unit’ ranked each team’s various position groups, but didn’t give a ‘final ranking’ for each team. Based on their rankings of OUR position groups, where would you rank our defense for this year?
o DLine: #27 ranking
o ILBs: #25 ranking
o Secondary: #22 ranking
Average all those PFF rankings out and you end up with around a #25 predicted ranking for our 2025 defense. I’ll predict that virtually every JBFer would say that’s bullcrap.
Our major issues last year IMO were injuries and lack of talent (depth). We made some pretty good strides this off-season & draft in fixing our talent issues. Obviously we don’t know what this season’s injury situation will look like. But with better backups (for the most part), we SHOULD surrender fewer points this year than we did last season. How many fewer? Your guess is as good as mine.
I’ve previously predicted that our defense will end up in the Top-10 for 2025 (and so will our offense). The Dolphins ranked #10 defensively last season, giving up 364 points (21.4 PPG). The Packers ranked #10 in 2023, giving up 350 points (20.6 PPG). Average those 2 most recent years and you’d end up with the #10 ranking allowing 357 points … 21.0 PPG average. Turns out that’s almost exactly what Todd Bowles’ defenses have averaged for the 2020-2024 period. And BTW, our defense’s average ranking for the 2020-2024 period has been 9.8 … pretty danged close to the #10 ranking.
Now maybe to you that ‘sucks’. To me, that’s a pretty danged good track record. And I sure like that much better than what PFF is trying to pedal.
July 15th, 2025 at 12:44 pm
Time will tell guys. If we have a decent Pass Rush this year? we have changed our Defense. Id not, the secondary will be working extra hard just as they have the last few yers.
July 15th, 2025 at 12:56 pm
DR – your own analysis shows the defense has declined each Bowles season, 23 vs 22, and 24 vs 23.
24 saw a significant uptick in points allowed which is consistent with the general statistical correlation between yards allowed and points allowed.
I want to see better use of pass rushers rushing the passers, beasting up the middle with pressure to better enable the edge, fewer pass rusher drops, lower incidence of blitzing, tighter zones and press man.
I believe you have supported those hopes, and I agree with your many detailed analyses as to why.