“Sorta Shaky Quarterback” Baker Mayfield Drags Down Offense
June 18th, 2025
Stunning analysis.
Locals often look at Joe funny when Joe says there’s still a lot of anti-Baker Mayfield bias in the national media. This following is a prime example.
Joe’s been told hearing this kind of stuff motivates Mayfield, so here you go, Baker.
A data nerd sort of squealed like a pig today when talking about the Bucs offense.
You know the stat geeks are excited when they start talking real fast, dropping acronyms and their voices get higher.
NFL analyst Ben Solak of ESPN is one of those stats-crazy guys. He’s got access to the high-level data churned out by ESPN gremlins in the basement of their Connecticut headquarters.
Solak sat down on The Mina Kimes Show to rank and detail the NFL’s 10 best offenses, and he nearly lost his mind talking about the Bucs. Joe had to rewind several times because Solak was talking so fast.
“Top-5 in all of success rate — EPA per play, points per drive and downside conversion rate — one of three offenses to be top-5 in all of those metrics,” Solak said of the Bucs offense.
“They were the best offense in the league in terms of third-down conversion rate. They converted on 50.4 percent of their third-down conversions despite having the 16th-most yards to go on third down. You might say, ‘Ben, that screams regression to the mean; that screams that’s going to come back down.’ But a fun nugget for you, new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard … was the third-down guy last year! He designed the third-down offense; it was the best third-down offense in football! You go and you watch them in their designer stuff, their third-down and their red-zone situational football, I mean they are with gas cooking.”
Solak gushed more about the Bucs and he’s in awe of Bucky Irving’s “37 percent missed tackle rate.” But after all that, he ranked the Bucs the seventh-best offense in the NFL.
A year ago, Tampa Bay ranked fourth in total points scored and third in total yards. That means he thinks the Bucs offense will take a half-step backwards.
Kimes also raved about the Bucs offense in detail and talked about her dissection on film of the Bucs’ run game, but she ranked the Bucs as having the 10th-best offense.
Why? Because Baker Mayfield is a “sorta shaky quarterback,” she said. “He’s good, but I’m just saying, and then then loss of the coordinator.”
June 18th, 2025 at 8:57 am
If any QB can handle an offensive coordinator change, it’s the guy who’s had nine OC’s in his 8 years in the NFL!!
June 18th, 2025 at 8:58 am
I hope Baker puts this on the board, as if he needs extra motivation. Baker is solid, regardless of what the contrarians say.
June 18th, 2025 at 9:10 am
Baker, Baker Head Coach maker!!!
Bring on the hate, but our QB is still going to Bake up defenses in the Fl heat
June 18th, 2025 at 9:27 am
just lost all respect for Mina
June 18th, 2025 at 9:36 am
I guarantee that all you regular posters in here know a hundred times more about this team than Mina Kimes and her ilk.
June 18th, 2025 at 9:37 am
Baker has literally lost his coordinator every single year since he was drafted.
“They converted on 50.4 percent of their third-down conversions despite having the 16th-most yards to go on third down.” I think Baker is better at 3rd and long than even Tom Brady was. Brings to mind Bosa hanging on while he dragged that dude across the field
June 18th, 2025 at 9:38 am
What the heck Mina?
Watch and learn B!tch!
June 18th, 2025 at 9:39 am
Bucky Irving’s “37 percent missed tackle rate.”
Man Bucky is a stud.
Awesome find in the 4th round…
Baker is a solid starting QB – I would put him in the upper mid-tier. I believe PFF had a proper ranking at #12.
June 18th, 2025 at 9:48 am
Typical Mina Kimes: “He’s good, but I’m just saying.” She throws out her opinion as fact without anything to back it up. I’ll never understand why she has such a large following.
June 18th, 2025 at 9:48 am
Go 4 of 5 on third down and drive ends in a field goal. Then next 2 drives go three and out. Results are 3 drives and 3 points to show for it. Hey only 1 point per drive but @ 57% you lead the league in 3rd down conversions. May impress some. Throw out a couple landslide wins and 30+ point games against garbage teams and Bucs are middle of the pack scoring.
Heck throw a ton of high percentage passes with short routes and a ton of screens and you can lead the league in passing percentages too.
Stats can be interpreted any number of ways. Even the upwards of 20 INT’s that lead the league can be explained away as the lineman let a ball get tipped, the receiver was at the wrong spot on a timing route, and blah blah blah.
It all comes down to which teams are played. Drop the Bucs in any of the other 3 NFC Divisions the last 3 seasons, they probably don’t make the playoffs, and Joe is bragging up Ben Johnson or Kellen Moore as the next best thing to come to Tampa.
June 18th, 2025 at 9:50 am
41 TDs is great, but almost averaging an interception a game and definitely averaging a turnover a game isn’t good for any offense. Baker can quiet all this noise by being more efficient in the pass game and committing less mistakes i.e. turnovers.
5 games with > 1 turnover isn’t going to allow us to be great or at least not as great as we can be.
Losing the OC is an easy cop out, but he just posted a bunch of career bests with an OC he didn’t even spend a full year with. That counts for something, but that doesn’t explain everything good/bad thing that comes with his play style.
June 18th, 2025 at 9:57 am
“Sorta Shaky” = lack of consistency, led the league in turnovers, loss of too many games We should have won, turn overs led to playoff elimination the last two years , maybe not fair , but improve these and he’ll get a better ranking.
June 18th, 2025 at 10:11 am
@ Warren and JD
I agree 100%.
Too many mistakes/turnovers.
Led the NFL in INTs (16)
Led the NFL in Fumbles (13)
Led the NFL in turnovers (18)
If Baker wants more respect (like a $50M/year contract) he needs to take better care of the football this year.
The Bucs also led the league in dropped passes (25) – this needs to stop. The WR group needs to step up and be more consistent.
June 18th, 2025 at 10:59 am
Mina Kimes is secretly a Baker/Bucs fan and she knows Bake needs some fresh bulletin board material. LFB!!!
Thanks Mina, Baker just took that personally!
June 18th, 2025 at 11:08 am
Not worried about Baker or the offense. The only concern I have is with this defense and Bowles clock management which both have been poor the last 2 seasons.
June 18th, 2025 at 11:09 am
Sorta shaky? Guy is a stat guy, what stat exactly makes Baker shaky? His height?
I prefer to listen to actual football guys critique the game than nerds, especially from ESPN.
June 18th, 2025 at 11:15 am
Baker’s issues are not regular season games it’s if the team makes the playoffs and those final drives or drive that’s his problem. For some reason he isn’t as mentally strong in those moments especially the past 2 years a pick and a fumble
June 18th, 2025 at 11:16 am
Baker is a warrior. An o-lineman playing QB. He just needs to cut down on interceptions. He gets dinged for not throwing the ball away when no one is open. But, IMO, that desire to make a play is what makes him so exciting and more often than not successful in converting 3rd downs. Sure he sometimes gets sacked because of it, and as many rightfully argue, it increases the risk of injury. But, he wouldn’t be Baker if he didn’t scramble trying to make plays.
June 18th, 2025 at 11:26 am
Marine Buc, Fan of the South, Warren, and JD. You trolls have plenty of sports teams that you can follow down there in Tampa. Maybe you can find one that you know Jack Shi! about.
June 18th, 2025 at 11:26 am
I believe the NFL had a proper rating this year at #6.
June 18th, 2025 at 11:46 am
Our WRs and TEs (Otton) need to reduce their drops, I just rewatched the away Saints game and Bake hit J-Mac in the hands and went through his hands for a pick. Sure Baker makes some bad throws but guys are dropping them too.
June 18th, 2025 at 12:00 pm
it’s too bad our defense was so crappy the offense was more than good enough to get it done. should have gone further than wild card weekend…
June 18th, 2025 at 12:01 pm
Baker is not shaky, it’s called moxie! He has proven himself. It’s not Bakers first big gig with changing coordinators, coaches, … He keeps getting better each time.
June 18th, 2025 at 12:03 pm
Drops need to be cleaned up, but so do the turnovers. I’ll take a dropped ball and the ability to run another play afterward, over loss of a possession 10 of 10 times.
@Marine
Funny part is Dean can get dragged through the mud for not getting enough INTs, but the moment you mention the QB throwing one too many now INTs those don’t matter as much. I have $20 for anybody than can make that make sense.
June 18th, 2025 at 12:07 pm
Think it’s been 8 years since Baker came back to the same offense. It’s a matter if you think Baker has it in him to take it to a championship level. I think he can do it.
June 18th, 2025 at 12:14 pm
More Kaye Adams and less Mina Kimes.
June 18th, 2025 at 12:16 pm
Baker knows he has a cannon for an arm, one that marine buc probably said he DIDNT HAVE earlier. Baker is going to play his game. Nothing you trolls say is going to change that in the least. It sure isn’t Bakers play that has kept this team from winning. He has performed excellent, especially in the playoffs-146 passer rating-none higher. You know why? Because that is knocking on a perfect passer rating. In fact, this year he played better than any qb in the playoffs according to the NFL–146 passer rating, none higher, oh did I say that already? I’m quite sure that matters a little more than 4 boys on a bolg site giving their “opinion”. You do know the passer rating takes into account the interceptions, right?? And Baker essentially tied for second this year in passer rating. So I guess while the interceptions arent great, they arent that detrimental either or he wouldn’t have the second best passer rating in the league, would he?
BRING ON THE HATE, OUR QUARTERBACK’S GONNA BAKE!!!😆
June 18th, 2025 at 12:29 pm
Two career seasons. What does he have to do? Three? Four? Ten?
June 18th, 2025 at 12:44 pm
Kenton Smith Says:
June 18th, 2025 at 11:26 am
Marine Buc, Fan of the South, Warren, and JD. You trolls have plenty of sports teams that you can follow down there in Tampa. Maybe you can find one that you know Jack Shi! about.
_____
You must be new here.
MarineBuc is no troll.
Get your sh!t together man.
June 18th, 2025 at 12:55 pm
A real Joe just made a great point. Brett Favre won MVP 3 years in a row. 1995, 96 & 97. In those years his interceptions were 13, 13 & 16. He averaged almost 18 interceptions. Went to 2 superbowls and won one and is in the HOF. Baker averages 13. Patrick Mahomes averages 10. I would venture to say 3 per year are inconsequential.
June 18th, 2025 at 12:58 pm
Kenton Smith…your schtick is old.
June 18th, 2025 at 1:41 pm
@Davy
Farve also leads the NFL all-time in interceptions w/336.
Has a career avg of 16.8 INTs a season.
Has more INTs than games he’s played in and also had 96 games with 2 or more INTs.
In 24 playoff games, he threw 30 INTs.
Not the greatest comparison in terms of ball security for any QB.
June 18th, 2025 at 2:24 pm
Dooosh, I’m not “new” here. MarineBuc and I are having a little fun. My calling him a troll surely isn’t as creative as his referring to me as “Kunton”. And MarineBuc, I know you know some football. I know some football. Watching football since 1960 and I haven’t seen 10 QBs better than Baker. And you say he’s not top 10 of the current crop? We may have to start calling you Doosh MarineBuc.
June 18th, 2025 at 2:31 pm
Warren, you left out Brett Favre is also a HOF. I think my point was, interceptions, while not good, arent the end all and be all of being a great qb. If it was BF sure wouldn’t be in the HOF, but he is, so…
June 18th, 2025 at 2:44 pm
To further the point, these guys act like Bakers interceptions are oh so bad but they aren’t. There are plenty of qbs who have only a few less. And again, he is miles and miles behind a GREAT HOF in Favre. Baker is fine, he will get his interceptions down…maybe. You know he loved Favre growing up. There might not be any hope for Baker getting them down. Maybe the die is cast. And if thats the case, i guess you guys will just have to put your big boy pants on and deal with it. Besides, if you take away his ricochets this year he is right there with you guys best buddy Mahomes.
June 18th, 2025 at 2:47 pm
All Bucs have a sour taste in their mouth losing that WAS game at home, all the players knew they should’ve won that game, mistake free football comes down to discipline in those crucial situations, Bucs aren’t going to let it slip away this year. SB bound 50th Anniversary Season. LFG!!!!
June 18th, 2025 at 2:50 pm
Remember a lot of folks here asking why we didn’t draft the Kentucky RB last year since he was good and Coen coached him, well, now we know. Inside intel can bring a lot of info we don’t know about. Just like Mina doesn’t know everything. Sad cause I like her but that was a contradictory statement with all she has said pro Baker.
June 18th, 2025 at 2:57 pm
@Davy
And Simeon Rice is not an HOFer, go figure, right?
June 18th, 2025 at 3:04 pm
Any “sports analyst” still questioning Baker Mayfield’s talent, should probably have their own talent questioned.
June 18th, 2025 at 3:07 pm
If you really want to just how good our qb is this example will help you figure it out. In 2016 Mahomes and Baker went head to head. It was a big game with a lot of pressure.
Baker Mayfield: 27 of 36 for 545 yards, average 20 yards per reception. 75% completion, 7 TD, 0 interceptions, passer rating 266, QBR 98
Patrick Mahomes: 52 of 88 for 734 yards, average 14 yards per reception. 59% completion, 5 TD, 1 interception, passer rating 145, QBR 91
Baker dominated Mahomes, this is why Baker has the highest passer rating in the playoffs. He plays best when the pressure is on. He has done it his whole career. I’m certain Baker will come through regardless of his interceptions.
June 18th, 2025 at 3:08 pm
Never had any respect for her.
The all 22 film is great. It can show you how the play unfolded. What it doesn’t tell you is what was called or planned. That’s a significant part of the equation and for outside observers, it’ll always be a missing variable.
June 18th, 2025 at 3:21 pm
@Davy
our last 2 postseason games ended on turnovers on offense. The last one was after the defense, that was plagued by injuries made a stand in their own endzone with the lead. When that fumble happened, we also fumbled away our ability to put the Commanders away which we could’ve done had we not fumbled.
dont are who is to blame for that, but I dont want the guy touching the ball every play for our team leading the league in giveaways. It’s that simple
June 18th, 2025 at 3:22 pm
its 60mil plus for Baker next, heck, some shady qb’s r getting 50mil dude; also, He, Baker, is
sooo Worth it!!,
this yr is gonna b even better, he has qualified guys, instead of rookies having 2 cover 4 Mike and
Chris; years gnna be Super for the BUCS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
June 18th, 2025 at 3:51 pm
I love seeing the comparisons to Brett Farvre. He was also great fun to watch. And, no, I am not a Green Bay fan. I am also a fan of John Elway. Excellence is excellence. I love Baker Mayfield. I also love Tampa Bay along with the Buccaneers.
June 18th, 2025 at 4:02 pm
@ Kenton
“Evans, Godwin, McMillan, Egbuca, Tez Johnson, and Sterling Shepard. Baker probably has to pinch himself after waking each morning.”
It’s all good bro – but at least you should learn how to spell the name of our 1st round pick correctly… LOL.
EGBUKA.
June 18th, 2025 at 4:09 pm
there is nothing wrong with baker as a qb. on paper he can win any game anywhere anytime against anyone. the game gets played and whatever happens happens but it isnt cause he lacks skill and certainly not cause he lacks toughness. sorta shaky? lol that is so stupid.
June 18th, 2025 at 4:16 pm
No one wants to consider regression for the offense and I hope they are correct.
Historically, rookie running backs that had superior 1st years running the ball, have taken step backs their 2nd year. Is it because those guys got worse? Almost for sure NO! But NFL teams watch film and adjust.
Stats to back my assertion.
2016 Henry 4.5 to 4.2 his next season.
2016 Zeke Elliott 5.1 to 4.1 his next season.
2016 Jordan Howard 5.2 to 4.1
2017 Cook 4.8 to 4.6
2017 Fournette 3.9 to 3.3
2017 Hunt 4.9 to 4.6
2017 Kamara 6.1 to 4.6
2018 Barkley 5.0 to 4.6
2018 Chubb 5.2 to 5.0
2018 Phillip Lindsay 5.4 to 4.5
2019 Jacobs 4.8 to 3.9
2020 Taylor 5.0 to 5.5
2021 Harris 3.9 to 3.8
2021 Williams 4.4 to 4.3
2022 Hall 5.8 to 4.5
2022 Walker 4.6 to 4.1
2022 Pacheco 4.9 to 4.6
2022 Allgeier 4.9 to 3.7
2023 Gibbs 5.2 to 5.6
2023 Robinson 4.6 to 4.8
2023 Achane 78 to 4.5
16 of 22 recent RBs dropped in YPC from Year 1 to 2.
June 18th, 2025 at 4:26 pm
Geno…
Bucky will be in that 27th percentile. LOL
Honestly, but he could drop a little and percentage but if they use him more and he’s still up around 5 yds per carry, he has a better season with a possible 2,000 yds from scrimmage.
I’m okay with the drop in stats if it’s only yard per carry and it’s only by a fraction.
June 18th, 2025 at 4:27 pm
@ geno
Dam you with you facts and accurate analysis…
You must be some sort of troll!
LOL!
June 18th, 2025 at 4:29 pm
Also come the only time I read Mina Kimes is when her crap is posted here at JBF.
She lucked out getting a job in football and now she spends all her time doing crappy analysis, not impressed. I know more about the Bucs than she does.
That’s why I prefer the analysis coming from local writers and ex player/coaches.
June 18th, 2025 at 4:34 pm
Well warren I definitely want THE guy who HISTORICALLY plays better than any other qb when he is playing in the playoffs and last years 146 passer rating is part of that history, according to the NFL anyway. 146 is awful close to a perfect game and it was the best out of all the qb last year. Honestly, I can’t imagine someone not wanting THAT guy but to each his own. You should get a qb that doesn’t have a rookie running the route too deep and can’t throw or run the ball but never throws an interception.
June 18th, 2025 at 4:45 pm
I still see a lot of comments about “most ints in the league” as if that single stat tells the whole story. There’s a reason they use touchdown to int ratios as a metric because its easy to have a season without a single interception but its likely that you will also have no offensive production. Any attempt by a coach to aggressively demand no or low interceptions from their QB will likely kill their production as well. Its a balancing act and 41TD to 16INT is quite acceptable in my eyes. Sure it would be nice if the int’s were maybe 13 but to expect low ints and 41TD’s is not going to happen. The only way it improves is for Baker to learn over time reading defenses but any attempt to overcoach this would be disastrous.
June 18th, 2025 at 5:02 pm
One more time for the guys that never played or coached the game. When you run the jet sweep Warren the receiver IS SUPPOSED to run just off the quarterbacks heels. A yard at the very most. When you practice it that way and trust me they practice it that way, you have to do it that way in the game because there is no time to make adjustments due to it is designed to happen very quick, catching the defense off guard and getting to the corner before they know whats happening. The qb turns and only turns and hands off, NO reaching is suppose to happen, NONE. If there is reaching it is being ran wrong. If you notice Baker was REACHING back. The reason he was reaching BACK is because the rookie was about 1/2 to 3/4 of a yard too deep. Might as well been a mile in the jet sweep. To make matters worse he wasn’t even running parallel to the line. He was actually running away from the line. I don’t have a clue why he screwed it up that bad but he did. When you can find someone in college or the NFL running it different than let us know because I have told this crew too many times exactly where and who to watch run it just like I described it today, again. And Baker took the blame because he is that kind of leader.
June 18th, 2025 at 5:20 pm
Davyboy is spot on. Anybody who watched the fumble closely knows that the receiver was the culprit.