Baker Mayfield: More Explosive Plays, Hopefully
June 11th, 2025
More vertical this fall?
Joe has a tendency to p!ss off someone, somewhere with every story typed here.
Joe offers opinions many times daily. That’s almost guaranteed to rub someone the wrong way.
Take last year, for example. Joe wasn’t trying to get anyone ticked off calling the Bucs offense dink-and-dunk off. The dink-and-dunk offense worked and why would anyone want to fool with one of the best offenses in the game?
Rarely did Coen have pass plays 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. And it worked!
Well, then-Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen didn’t embrace Joe’s label for his offense, and he called Joe out in a press conference for referring to his offense as “dink-and-dunk.”
That may change with Josh Grizzard, Coen’s successor.
Yesterday, after underwear football practice, Mayfield noted the Bucs want to develop more explosive plays. And to do that requires being more vertical, Mayfield said.
“When you look at the stats – I’m not a big stats guy, but we weren’t as much down-the-field explosive,” Mayfield began. “We were creating a lot of open, in the middle, and guys getting some YAC (yards after catch).
“But, yeah, working on that, being able to connect on the chemistry we’re trying to build right now and just the timing of some of these routes – where the landmarks are and understanding that if it’s two-high [safety coverage], one-high [safety coverage], where we’re trying to throw the ball.
“This is the time of year we’re working on it. Obviously, you would love to have more down the field shots, but any completion is a good one.”
Joe isn’t sure of what to think of this. All things being even, would Joe like to see Mayfield go deep more often? Yes! But is that smart?
Joe has a hunch the following is true: Coen had a mostly short-passing game (dink-and-dunk) because he thought that type of offense played to Mayfield’s skillset better than a vertical attack.
You sure cannot argue with Coen’s results, and Joe is a huge believer in not changing something that is not broken.
Is it really wise to stray from something that worked so damn well? Especially when all 11 starters return?
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June 11th, 2025 at 7:18 am
hmmmmm. the eternal question.
June 11th, 2025 at 7:19 am
Team officials can get annoyed all they want but the passing offense was a significant amount of intermediate throws and screens. Nothing wrong with that if you have a good run game and it’s effective. Plus it keeps the offense on the field longer and that helps if you have a poor defense, which we qualified.
However, there is nothing wrong with developing the ability for what romo calls ‘chunk plays’. If you don’t have that, it’s a problem. Doesn’t have to be a huge part of your game but the defense has to know you’re capable of it.
Outside of a few throws downfield to Evans and a couple of Jmac TDs, I don’t recall defenses having to account for that.
June 11th, 2025 at 7:20 am
“Coen had a mostly short-passing game (dink-and-dunk) because he thought that type of offense played to Mayfield’s skillset”
I assumed he watched the film, concluded Baker’s long was WAS long, just not real accurate. It hurt ME13 a bit, but that was about it
June 11th, 2025 at 7:27 am
There’s no question the dink and dunk offense worked last year.
We had a few chunk plays, but not enough in my mind to keep opposing defenses honest.
I haven’t looked up any numbers, but my impression is that we struggled with completion percentage on throws of 20+ yards last year compared to the shorter ones.
If it ain’t broke don’t fix it is sound logic to me too.
But, I’d also like to see Grizz and the offense work on those longer vertical plays this offseason.
June 11th, 2025 at 7:32 am
I’ve said a few times that once in awhile, they need to bring in the fastest receivers on early downs and have them run deep routes. If one of the receivers is open and they connect, great! If not, the DBs will be winded and won’t be as effective against the receivers running routes on the next play. I’d try to do that 3-4 times each game.
June 11th, 2025 at 7:57 am
Hopefully he is meeting with Arians ,,,, Big Bruce def has the down field game simplified and Coen was a master at short to mid range . 70 /30 Coen / Arians mix would be a great formula.
June 11th, 2025 at 7:58 am
Remember that you gotta change things every year. Going deep more often will be a change for us and simply lowers the probably of any one defense being the right one on that play.
But of course everyone says they want to be more explosive. The defensive equivalent is “we plan on playing more aggressive this year. We are going to dictate to the offense.” Blah, blah, blah. Show me on the field in the games.
June 11th, 2025 at 8:13 am
Woody Hayes said only 3 things happen when you pass the ball and 2 of them aren’t good. I understand what Baker is saying, wants to see more completions on those chunk plays than incompletions, they fire up a team. I don’t think the offense will just start slinging the ball down the field, they will build off what worked last year, refining it. They are trying to create situations for those chunk plays to have the highest chance for success. It sounds like the offense wants to come out and command the game and score on every possession. If they can put a team down a few scores from the start it puts pressure on the opposing team and plays into the hands of our defense.
June 11th, 2025 at 8:19 am
Grizz gets that from McDaniels play book. This offense won’t be Coen’s. Sure the base is the same, concepts, verbiage, but this will be where it ends. Grizz has already said they added new plays while scouting the draft. This will be a different offense this season. It will be Josh Grizzards offense. Can’t wait to see it, let’s go Josh!
June 11th, 2025 at 8:31 am
I wonder who our offensive coordinator will be next year? After we win the Super Bowl this year.
June 11th, 2025 at 8:38 am
Joe … ‘ Joe is a huge believer in not changing something that is not broken. Is it really wise to stray from something that worked so damn well?’
Great (and pertinent) question Joe, and I agree 100% with you on ‘not changing something that is not broken’. Back on May 19th, there was a somewhat similar discussion that prompted me to take a look at Baker’s deep passes for 2024. Used Pro-Football-Reference’s data and it appears to me that they use 15 yards (vice 20 yards) as their ‘deep’ criteria.
Found in looking at Baker’s deep throwing that he threw a TOTAL of 89 deep passes last season, plus an additional 6 deep passes that resulted in DPI penalties (but don’t count in his stats obviously). Of those 89 deep passes, Baker completed 43 passes for 8 TDs, had 41 incomplete, and another 5 were intercepted. Based on those stats, he threw slightly more than 5 deep each game on the average, and completed 48.3% of those. That’s an outstanding ‘deep’ accuracy in my book.
Baker attempted 571 passes last season, and if 89 were ‘deep’ then the remaining 482 had to be ‘short’. He completed 408 passes last season, and if he completed 43 ‘deep’ then he must’ve completed 365 ‘short’. Baker’s total completion percentage for 2024 was 71.4% … of that he completed 48.3% of his ‘deep’ passes and 75.7% of his ‘short’ passes.
Personally I like the mix of short & deep that Coen called, because it seemed to play very nicely to Baker’s strengths AND produced a very healthy 41 passing TDs & 502 points … 29.5 PPG average. What made it work is that we DIDN’T get greedy with the deep throws, but rather it appears that Coen used the short passing game and the running game to (selectively) set up the deep throws. It played to Baker’s strengths and produced almost 30 PPG average. And oh ya, it also produced 31:41 Time of Possession (TOP), our highest TOP since 2003 it looks like. That’s also significant (to our defense especially).
June 11th, 2025 at 8:40 am
You have to remember who the head coach is and his philosophy. Force turnovers and don’t turn the ball over. Even though he may leave the offensive Coordinators alone, his rules apply at all times. Unfortunately; mistakes on offense happen even without throwing the long ball so maybe they will loosen up on going deep.
June 11th, 2025 at 8:45 am
Joe
” Is it really wise to stray from something that works so well???”
Well Joe, ask Brady how it worked out for him when the new coach took over.
Point of Truth, Buccaneers had a record breaking Regular Season the Very Season Before 13 to 4 in 2021! It Was a HUGE SUCCESS in 2021!!! Massive!
Next coach seemed No Less than Disgusted by the Winning technique and Stripped it from top to bottom! The results were Clear.
You certainly Don’t have a to look very far or hard to find out All you need to know.
June 11th, 2025 at 8:50 am
Apologies, To Be Clear …. The Very Next year (2022) , the WINNING FORMULA WAS STRIPPED by Todd Bowles.
The Results WERE CLEAR! We haven’t even come close to the success we had in 2021!
June 11th, 2025 at 9:01 am
Obvious One … ‘We haven’t even come close to the success we had in 2021!’
Not totally fair Obvious. Bucs scored 511 points in 17 games in 2021 with Brady at the helm of a very seasoned offense. We scored 502 points in 17 games in 2024 with Baker at the helm of a less seasoned offense. ONE TD difference over a season isn’t a mammoth difference.
They’re obviously very much different offenses, but BOTH worked. The offense we’re using right now appears to me to be somewhat more ‘balanced’ in terms of CAPABILITY (our passing & running capabilities BOTH rank quite well against other teams (Passing #3 in yards, and Running #4). That ‘balance’ yields a LOT of flexibility to our OC and it also seems to allow us to control the TOP in various games better, which is helpful to the defense IMO.
June 11th, 2025 at 9:33 am
the problem with the bucs and dink /dunk is on the defensive side. the defense couldnt deal with it. people talk about dink and dunk like it is a slur or something, i dont get that. yards are yards.
June 11th, 2025 at 10:33 am
Give me YAC and moving the chains versus a 50 yard bomb that leads to a FG. YAC is key to the modern offense, relying on 40 or 50 yard bombs to move the chains is not consistently effective
June 11th, 2025 at 10:51 am
The deep passing game will allow for more “killer instinct”. You want to close people out, score more points, not lead in time of possession.
June 11th, 2025 at 10:52 am
Play to Baker’s strengths – which might not be the long ball. Whatever he is best at – go with that. I do agree that mixing things up a bit more is a necessity, but don’t turn into Arians bombs away offense. Dink and dink worked really well and we have the studs to succeed at that.
June 11th, 2025 at 11:17 am
“If it ain’t broke don’t fix it.” That may sound good but I guarantee there are things Griz and Todd and Baker are working on right now to fix. It’ll be the same offense as far as most everything of course. But there will be upgrades. And we’ve got a year of experience with this offense! And we have a few more playmakers! The main thing we as fans will notice is that we’re going to be a better offense! Ain’t no standing still in life-you’re getting better or you’re getting worse. We’re getting better. Just watch.
June 11th, 2025 at 11:21 am
The offense must be the strength of the team. Short or deep, however the opponents play us.
Until proven otherwise, the defense hasn’t stopped a dead yak from getting a first down in a long time. Injuries, blah blah blah. Fix the pass defense.
June 11th, 2025 at 11:25 am
I agree that Bake’s strongsuit is suited for the short-to-medium passes. While he’s definitely got a cannon for an arm, his accuracy can come into question. It’d be great if he could re-invent his passing motion similar to how Brady had to as he progressed. His arm got a lot more loose he says in one of his youtube videos. Not sure if that’s the solution to Bake’s problem but anything the greatest passer of all time should be listened to. Yes, I’m biased.
June 11th, 2025 at 12:05 pm
The deeper and wider you can stretch what their defense must cover the more it opens up everything else our offense has , runs or passes.
June 11th, 2025 at 12:52 pm
I’m not a fan of the chuck and duck approach. Short and intermediate passes work just fine when using high leverage concepts. That’s what frustrated me with Arians sometimes. Baker is not Brady so why force it.
June 11th, 2025 at 12:59 pm
Funny how the narrative even continues with Joe. Several times last year on Monday film replays, the so called experts used Mayfield highlights saying he put the ball only where receiver could catch it on passes over 20 yards. But it is easy following the narrative.
Unlike Defense rules, who gave some real analysis. Hat tip to Defense Rules
June 11th, 2025 at 1:18 pm
If I recall correctly, last year it was noted that although we had decent pass-pro, we seemed to struggle on the O-line holding longer blocks.
Hence, a strategy for shorter passes (less blocking time) seemed to work very well.
This year, if the O-line can hold their blocks a tad longer, I believe we will see more, and more successful, deeper passes.
Wasn’t this a topic of discussion about last year’s O-line? (Or am I mixing up other years – man, getting old stinks, LOL).
June 11th, 2025 at 1:41 pm
Joe was posting the chart showing all of Baker’s throws after each game last year.
Most weeks the number of throws 20+ yards was 2,3 or 4.
Coen was absolutely focusing on the short and intermediate passes the majority of the time – many throws were completed behind the line of scrimmage last year.
Baker has a cannon for an arm – but in his 2 years as a Buccaneer – he hasn’t shown himself to be particularly accurate on 20-25+ yard throws which is what I consider a “deep” pass….
Coen WAS playing to Baker’s strengths last year with the behind the line and shorter passes…. because all you have to do with these weapons is get the ball in almost anyone’s hands (ME, Godwin, Otten, Bucky, etc) and they are as likely as not to break a tackle, get some yac and make a nice play out of that short completion.
June 11th, 2025 at 5:49 pm
this take is so annoying..anyone who thinks baker is inaccurate on deep passes has clearly never seen any footage from when he played at oklahoma. he also had great deep ball accuracy at cleveland when he had an oline that could hold blocks long enough for those longer plays to develop. he has a cannon for an arm and can thread the needle into tight windows. you can see some of this on his highlights toward the end of last season as the line improved. it’s only going to get better as they play longer together and develop their chemistry and he has receivers who are explosive and run great routes.
June 11th, 2025 at 6:40 pm
I always thought Coen’s offense was more about getting the ball into the hands of the guys who know how to make plays, make people miss. Take the easy stuff the other team gives you and let the playmakers take it from there. I never thought it had anything to do with Baker’s skillset. That’s the type of offense the man came from so why would he do something different with the Bucs?
June 11th, 2025 at 6:50 pm
Kudos to Defense Rules for pointing out the one thing that Bowles seems to be very concerned with – time of possession. Two long passes leading to a TD and a one minute drive doesn’t give the defense much time to rest.
June 11th, 2025 at 9:40 pm
So what I knew he wasn’t throwing the ball up the field that much last year and that’s ok . Brady dink and dunk all the way to the hall of fame but I know that’s call hating now days when you just telling the truth about surtain players. I watched the game against Baltimore when Brady was with the Patriots. It was a dink and dunk offense and he would throw a 10 yard pass and Gronk picked up a extra 15 yards. Brady threw the ball on average even with us about 4 or 5 times a game and I mentioned that a lot but y’all thought I was just saying stuff because I hated Brady. I keep telling y’all that I don’t know none of these players personally I judge what I see on the field during games. I wouldn’t mind Baker Mayfield having Jalen Hurts stats as long as we get to a Superbowl or at least a conference championship. I keep telling y’all that the only stats that matter is a scoring offence which means how many points your offense puts up. And a scoring defense is how many points your defense gives up. All other stats is good for players personal accomplishments on the field to get them to pro bowls and all pros.
June 11th, 2025 at 10:05 pm
Defense Rules as usual has the facts-nothing but the facts. He concludes and I agree that Mayfield is very accurate on deep balls. This is in sharp disagreement with those who claim that Mayfield is a dinker and dunker. In fact, Mayfield has a cannon arm and given enough time–like all QB’s need–he can make every deep throw including long seam routes which are the most difficult long throws. Let’s see if the O line can provide the necessary time to complete long passes this year. I think this young O line is still very much a work in progress. Expect them to get much better on pass blocking this year as Barton gets more confident in calling out protection schemes.
June 11th, 2025 at 11:25 pm
Baker stinks at throwing the ball down the field, but he’s really good at the short, quick passing game. Do what works. With Sucke in the lineup at tackle, and getting blown past like he wasn’t even there on half his snaps, Coen had to change up the offense before that Eagles game – that was when the offense went from more of a traditional offense, to a quick short passing game, and we saw how the offense took off from that point until the end of the season. If teams can’t stop you, don’t just change things for the sake of change, keep doing what works until it stops working.
June 12th, 2025 at 1:39 am
Coen was all about taking what the defense gives you and making the easy completion to your skill guys. In many instances, this was dink and dunk. Nothing wrong with that. We excelled at it.
Bakers long throws were decent though good, but not amazing. He did have a higher iNT% on deep throws (even if some of them were due to WR mistakes). So I agree with Joe, in that I hope they don’t force it. Of course I don’t mind a few more deep shots, but Coen’s philosophy was quite effective.
June 12th, 2025 at 3:24 am
Bakers 2024 deep throw “completion percentage” was 42.9%. Which ranks 7th in the league which is almost in the 80 percentile.
His deep throws that were “highly-accurate” were 34.7%. Which ranks 13th or in the 60 percentile.
His “Completion Percentage Over Expected” (CPOE) was 3.6% Which ranks 9th or in the 72 percentile.
78%–60%–72% these 3 averages are 70%
The 3 rankings of 9–7–13 average is 9.6
Now it’s obvious some people’s definition of stink varies from others but when a quarterbacks average long ball is 70% and his average rank of 9.6 out of 32 that doesn’t fit in too many people’s stink category. 🤔 😂
June 12th, 2025 at 8:18 am
Just do what works. Pass rushers are beasts these days. The days of Daryll Lamonica having it all day to throw 70 yard bombs to Cliff Branch are over.
June 12th, 2025 at 2:58 pm
Davyboy — and what is the yardage that is considered ‘deep’? Most of those are bogus nonsense where they’re talking about 15-yards and more, which is not deep. What’s his numbers once you’re talking 25+ yards and 30+ yards? The eyeball test says he’s very inaccurate on those passes. How many times the last two years have we seen a wide open Palmer running deep and Baker misses him by 15 yards? Quite a bit (although more in 23 than 24).
In any case, the point was that Baker is really good at something, the short passing game. He’s accurate, he’s safe with the ball, and he’s good at creating time in the pocket if he needs to. To say he’s good at one thing, and to do that one thing unless the other team can stop you, that is called common sense and not outsmarting yourself. The team should absolutely take some shots down the field, but it shouldn’t be a focus, just do what works.