Four Aprils In A Row?

March 31st, 2024

Bucs power brokers Jason Licht and Todd Bowles.

Yes, you can wager on the NFL Draft, as in what position the Bucs will target with their very first pick next month.

You may have an addiction problem if you’re placing such a wager today, but Joe still has a little guidance.

First, Joe would advise not pulling the trigger with any significant amount. Calling the Bucs’ first pick is dangerous territory. Too much can change between now and draft day, and Buccaneers Ring of Honor general manager Jason Licht is hard to read.

The Bucs have gone defensive line/edge rusher with their first pick in each of the last three years. Who saw that coming? The current betting line says, dammit, they’re about to do it again.

Draft Kings sportsbook has set the lines as follows for Tampa Bay’s first pick:

Defensive line/Edge + 130
Offensive Lineman +225
Cornerback +300
Wide Receiver +850
Safety +1500
Linebacker +1500
Tight End +4000
Quarterback +7500
Running Back +10000
Kicker/Punter +20000

Joe has mixed feelings on the odds. All signs point to the Bucs drafting an edge rusher in Round 1 for one simple reason: that’s their position of greatest need. Todd Bowles also loves interior defensive linemen, so Joe can’t rule that out with Vita Vea turning 30 next year.

Joe would put offensive line and cornerback as doubtful for a first pick, but Joe does think wide receiver could be a nice value wager here (not pick, “wager”).

If a stud receiver prospect falls to the Bucs, and there are many in this draft, Joe could see the Bucs being attracted to the firepower. It’s still a passing league and Tampa Bay is a passing team.

22 Responses to “Four Aprils In A Row?”

  1. Pickgrin Says:

    I would bet on interior OLine.

    Simply because the top 3 edge rushers will be off the board and the Bucs would (hopefully) much rather have Barton than Chop Robinson….

    Barton in the 1st – Kneeland in the 2nd

    I would be SO happy if Jason pulled that off…

  2. Defense Rules Says:

    Pickgrin … I agree; OLine first, and most likely a starting Center. That pick would almost surely have a lot more impact than adding an Edge. Even Joe admits that rookie DE/OLBs usually are still cutting their teeth by the end of their 1st season.

  3. Delusional Intelligence Says:

    I’m holding out hope for Laiatu Latu. Hope we don’t settle for Chop Robinson.

  4. Irishmist Says:

    I agree with Joe, I’d bet on WR if the odds are 8 to 1.

  5. Tucker Says:

    I’ve been saying wr for a while now don’t think they are as down on certain positions as much as the fans are anyway. If you are drafting for strictly need you are probably reaching and that’s a bad drafting strategy. I want the bucs to really draft bpa and that’s probably going to be a wr.

  6. Tucker Says:

    Well in the first round anyway.

  7. Tucker Says:

    Don’t think Barton lasts and i don’t think teams are very high on jpj not nearly as much as bucs fans are anyway.

  8. sweti_yeti Says:

    The best offenses have 3 top-shelf receivers to be accounted for. Trey Palmer could become that guy. He’s got the speed, seems to have reliable hands, will go up and get the ball in traffic… the rest is technique/route running and understanding the offense, being where the QB expects him to be, and building a solid connection.

    Anyway, back on topic… I could easily see WR being our pick if it’s BPA from Edge, CB, WR, and IOL… that is my best guess of what they’re looking for in that position… but if Brock Bowers made it there or anywhere close, we’re going Brock Bowers.

  9. Capt.Tim Says:

    Yup, great picks for rounds 1&2.
    Id be really happy with that!

  10. Bucben61 Says:

    Isn’t doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results the definition of insanity

    The bucs have a historically crappy running game so yeah let’s put running back at the bottom of the list…makes perfect sense

  11. JimBobBuc Says:

    Pls no Chop Robinson, not enough production, just a bunch of unrealized potential. I don’t see a WR getting in the field much over Evans and Godwin, not a big number of snaps. Even a great starting edge would be platooned. We would get more snaps, maybe 100%, from a rd1 IOL.

  12. Bucben61 Says:

    If the top 3 de are off the board draft a center

    At 26 de is a crap shot…better to roll the dice in the second or 3rd round

    Show some love to the offense for a change…draft some big uglies and get a stud RB and let’s see this offense take off

  13. Jordan Says:

    Xavier Worthy to bring us back what we never replaced in Antonio Brown.

    You can’t assume Mike Evans or Godwin won’t get hurt, and one of them or both are gone in the next 1-2 years. I really like Trey Palmer, but we’ve gotta be stacked at WR in case the run game struggles again next year.

    I like Barton, but ideally he falls out of the first and then becomes a trade up candidate for us in the second. We already have a lot invested in the offensive line.

    Kool Aid would be a good pick too, but I just don’t see an edge rusher that we want at 26 with what else will be there. Jared Verse is not falling that far

  14. jeffrey becker Says:

    what if they trade back to 33 or something, it’s a push?

  15. Toad Bowels Says:

    Picks 1-4 Edge, WR, DT and IOL in whatever order the Bucs draft gurus think best.

    Then finish up the draft with ILB, CB, S

    Adding Undrafted at ILB, IOL, OT, TE, CB, S, DT, WR

    The team has done a great job with signing UNDRAFTED players during the past several years and I hope that continues. I think 2-4 undrafted have a shot at making the team or taxi squad this year. Perhaps even more undrafted players can make the team and taxi squad if there are injuries in camp or surprise veteran trades or cuts.

  16. Toad Bowels Says:

    No Chops for me either. Limited production means another JTS-type risk which is OK to take with a second-rounder, but not with one of the first 3 picks.

    WR or Edge depending on who is available or CB or DT if someone falls that the Bucs draft brain trust sees as a top 15 pick.

  17. Lou. Says:

    @Joe — the Reddick mess may give you indigestion — but was there ever a real chance? Philly traded out of conference. They got a “conditional” third round pick that will increase to a second if he has a decent year. There also are money matters that I don’t care about (but the team has to).

    Seems to me like your hope was never more than just a hope — the Eagles were NEVER going to trade with the Bucs and probably not in-conference (outside of, say, the Stinkin’ Panthers). AND the Bucs just didn’t have the juice to climb that high. A 3rd this year could be fine. But to roll the dice on next year’s 2nd would be a loser move. You got to know when to fold ‘em.

    So the Joes can cry but they can’t really complain.

  18. Dew Says:

    Payton Wilson 6’4″ , 238lbs, 4.43, ILB

  19. LANshark Says:

    If we’re looking at UDFA – consider Drake Stoops of Oklahoma. His father’s a pretty good coach and he just seems to get open, and catches everything. Of course he’s small, but decent speed. And all heart.

  20. stpetebucfan Says:

    How does Vegas manage this? What’s to prevent NFL insiders who are literally looking at their team’s draft boards from getting friends to make a wager.

    That’ not throwing a game or doing anything to taint the NFL…just the wise guys in Vegas who might not be happy.

  21. 941Boltsfan Says:

    I’m just grateful that you didn’t give us Hard Rocks betting lines

  22. quezter Says:

    We just let a stud receiver go!