Bucs’ Strength Of Remaining Schedule

December 2nd, 2023

Help with the schedule?

The Bucs have a sorry record. Good thing they are in a sorry division.

At 4-7 through 11 games, the Bucs have six games to go just one game out of first place in the horrid NFC South.

Joe’s favorite stat geek, handicapper Warren Sharp, decided to break down the strength of schedule for the remaining six weeks for every team at Sharp Football Analysis.

Sharp loathes strength of schedules before the season to try to determine who has or doesn’t have an easy route to the playoffs. He smartly says you cannot bank on how strong or weak a team will be based on the previous season’s record because rosters change so much.

He’s right. Joe remembers former Bucs coach Dirk Koetter saying roughly a third of a team changes each year. So doing a strength of schedule roughly two-thirds of the way through a season is a much better apples-to-apples comparison.

Looking at the Bucs’ remaining six games (Carolina, at Atlanta, at Green Bay, Jacksonville, New Orleans and at Carolina), Sharp believes the Bucs have the third-easiest in the NFC. Only two teams have an easier road, per Sharp’s calculations … the slimy Saints and the Dixie Chicks.

You know, the horrid NFC South?

The way Joe looks at it, to have a prayer of winning the division, the Bucs must win four of their next six games. Five wins may just win the division.

Sadly, the way this team is playing, Joe isn’t brimming with confidence.

40 Responses to “Bucs’ Strength Of Remaining Schedule”

  1. Pelsbuc61 Says:

    Strength of schedule at this point is irrelevant. Bucs players have checked out, the coaches are to blame and there is not one player on this team that raises the play or inspires other players. Quite the contrary. Bowles has done an incredible job of destroying so fast the culture Brady created short term.

  2. CleanHouse Says:

    The team sucks

  3. CleanHouse Says:

    Tom Brady effect really took hold of this organization well into the future

  4. CleanHouse Says:

    That’s no knock on Tom

  5. Derek Says:

    Will we get anymore podcasts this year or did you guys quit

  6. BA’s Red Pen Says:

    Whichever team “wins,” the NFC South will be embarrassed at home in the first round of the playoffs.
    Who’s the next head coach? Which quarterback are we drafting?
    It’s a Buc’s Life.

  7. CleanHouse Says:

    Todd Bowles lost the Podcast

  8. CleanHouse Says:

    Morale is very low around here

  9. Mike S Says:

    Bucs will go 3-3 and finish 7-10

  10. Mike S Says:

    CleanHouse whatever Tomn Brady effect Bucs had was obliterated by Todd Bowles.

  11. adam from ny Says:

    5 of 6 or win out to grab the division is what i’m guessing…

    i’m not so sure 4-2 is gonna cut it…

    and 3-3 is more apt to happen, after going 1-6 in last 7

  12. MadMax Says:

    Lose out and we just might be in position to grab Harrison Jr….thats what im saying!!!!

  13. adam from ny Says:

    preseason sort of extends into the early first quarter of the season…

    especially with how they have changed all the rules with no pads and all that…and 3 games, etc…

    so while teams were getting settled in, a few teams come flying out the gate and can steal a few wins…

    we caught minnesota and new orleans sleeping in their buildings early…

    otherwise we’d have started 1-3…

    add that 1-3 plus the 1-6…and that equals 2-9…throw in one win for good measure and because coach doesn’t rock a toupee, and our most logical record is 3-8…

    we are a 3-8 team with this regime

  14. adam from ny Says:


    would love to see us draft harrison jr…

    but if you draft him do you let mike walk in free agency…

    or sign mike and trade away godwin…

    we probably aren’t keeping all 3…

    and then there’s the hope of palmer developing into a real solid 3rd…

    with chris and mikes salaries, something has to give…

    you can’t spend 40-45 mil on those guys and put up 14 points a game – something isn’t right with that, lol…

    also lets say the front office really has their eye on harrison, then they already have a potential plan in place for mike and chris moving forward, if harrison falls into our lap

  15. adam from ny Says:

    personally, i think you can really develop palmer…

    not sure he can ever be a number 1, but he’s shown serious flashes at times, and eventually can be a number 2……..eventually

  16. MadMax Says:

    adam, as much as I hate it….cap h3ll and Evans age and drops ive seen this year, (not to take away from his still spectacular catches) yeah, we let him go.

  17. teacherman777 Says:

    For the record.

    Keanu Neal has started all year for the Steelers.

    And…. As I said…

    He is playing SS and Dime Linebacker!

    Anybody remember me suggesting that?

    Neal should have replaced White last year as our dime LB.

    He should have played more last year.

    He should still be here this year as a SS (not Ryan Neal)

    And White should come off the field on passing downs.

    Anyway. I told you guys Mark Barron should have been converted to LB and I told you guys Neal should have been our SS/LB,

  18. Defense Rules Says:

    MadMax … We won’t have to let Evans go, he’s already decided to move on next year IMO. He’s a premier WR in this league, is only 30 years old right now & keeps himself in excellent condition. He’ll command top dollar (Market Value projected at $23.2 mil right now) & the Bucs can’t afford that next year (not to mention that we’ll STILL owe him over $12 mil next year from PAST contracts). Lots of top competitors have the salary CAP space to afford his services & we can’t compete.

    Our problem right now isn’t WR as much as it is QB because it all starts there. This year’s draft is the year of the QB. IF we end up picking in the Top-7 we can draft a potentially franchise QB I’m convinced (might mean we’d have to trade up a couple of spaces though to get ‘the guy’ who best fits the offense we want in the future (and no, dink-and-dunk isn’t it).

    It’s about PRIORITIES and we have zero room for error this year. We have tons of NEEDS, but drafting a franchise QB has to be our highest priority.

  19. MadMax Says:

    DR, if we’re picking around 7, then Bo Nix and get it over with.

    I know Mike is top dollar, deservedly so. Thats why I just see him and us moving on, we cant afford him. Im hoping Harrison drops to around 5-7 and we trade back into the 1st for Nix….its according to where the top 5’s priorities are. I dont know.

    Been a Bo Nix fan since last year though. Reminds me of a young Favre.

  20. Defense Rules Says:

    MadMax … I admittedly don’t know enough about the various top college QBs to have a preference, but Nix certainly did very well this season. Yet there are several others who MAY fit our needs better, depending upon what offense we opt to run. There are a bazillion question marks right now over our coaching situation, and that makes it impossible to project anything.

    Looking at our current roster & projecting who we’ll keep/let walk, it looks to me like we don’t have a single position group that I’d consider to be a true STRENGTH of this team. Not a single one, meaning that we’re building a team from pretty much a blank slate IMO. IF that’s truly the case, we need to start at the most important position on the team: QB. I would’ve loved for Kyle Trask to be ‘The Guy’ but he’s never been given a chance to show what he can do. And because of that, I’m of the opinion that we need to draft a QB in Rnd 1 and let the 2 of them duke it out for starter. Trask MAY decide to move on after the 2024 season in any event (as a Rnd 2 pick, he’s in control of his future after next year).

  21. MadMax Says:

    Trask is a backup and theres a reason (i guess) the ones on the inside know, he just hasnt been consistent…dont know what it is. A waste of a 2nd just like a waste of a 1st on JTS when I was calling for us to grab Landon Dickerson, and now look at him on that Philly O line!….

    Oh well, a miss here and there is normal. But yeah, you’re right, we cant miss on QB right now. And to me, Nix has what it takes to fit into anything but a run first system, even though he has decent legs. Then WR afterwards if we use our 1st on him. I’ll do some research here and there i guess on other wideouts. Its not like theres a check in the mail sent to us for our advice so….lol

  22. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    Strength of schedule means nothing if you don’t win games

  23. salary cap hell Says:

    we will be lucky to win 2 more games , to finish out the seaon…

    D. F. is right QB 1st round ( new Head coach) is a must

  24. MadMax Says:

    @DR, i respond and its you know where lol….nothing to mod but is what it is

  25. Beeej Says:

    That 6.5 wins the prognosticators predicted seems to be right on the money

  26. Hodad Says:

    Season ends next week at Atlanta when we get swept by the Falcons. Following week at G.B. pack your bags, vacation time for the Bucs right around the corner. Maybe Carolina puts us out of our misery tomorrow.

  27. Texasbucsfan Says:

    TB & BA walked out because they realized that they did not have a winning roster going forward. Time for a rebuild.

  28. danang Says:

    Strength of schedule means little in the NFL where any team can beat any team. This ain’t college football.

  29. stpetebucfan Says:

    How about an honest look in the mirror which will p!sss off many here.

    I’m not sure where Beeej got 6.5 expected victories. Perhaps smart money in Vegas set that line however S.I. for example said the Bucs would win two! Many other “experts” agreed and the consensus in my old memory was that the Bucs would finish last in a sorry Division.

    And so again…BEFORE throwing the baby out with the bath water and blowing a first round pick on a QB consider the results.

    The Bucs have already won 4..double the EXPECTATIONS! The SHOULD be at least 5-6 if not for the defensive CHOKE in Houston after the runt staged a great 4th Q rally to win…er should win the game.

    I think the major disappointment ironically is that we all saw that glimpse of hope in the start that raised expectations unrealistically! If the Bucs win even 3 of their remaining games they SHATTER expectations!!!

    So grading on the curve (realism) the Bucs are not as bad was we keep pounding. We knew they would suck the question is are the Bucs improving?
    Again IMHO the verdict is still out but the OL and White certainly have improved, play calling and schemes have not. I’m still with this team!!!

    If the Bucs lose out they will still have exceeded predictions. If they go 4-2 with losses to the Jags and Packers they will make the freaking playoffs! They may back in with 3-3. I’m not a Bowles fan anymore because of his strategy. I think this coaching staff left a couple of wins on the field. But again if you’re honest and grade on the curve IE consider challenges of new OL…New OC loss of a GOAT at QB…again..”The kids are alright”.

    OK now for perhaps the majority of the rest.



  30. Irish Laughter Says:

    When the substitute teacher (Bowles) took over, the students (players) learned nothing, but it was easier to go to school (No pressure). Joe stated at the beginning of the season, “the team plays better without Brady.” Joe, be careful what you wish for, the Bucs have returned to their usual place in the NFL, irrelevant . Keeping it real in Ireland.

  31. RagingBrisket Says:

    So if only the Bucs weren’t a bad football team they could win the winnable games? What insight 🙄

  32. Glass used to be Half Full Guy Says:

    I hate to say it but in our current state, both physically and mentally, our remaining opponents probably look at us as the easiest team to beat on their schedules.

    Even if we somehow make it to the playoffs, this team is in dire straits for the foreseeable future. If Bowles is fired, and he probably will be, who out there within the assistant coaching ranks where we’d likely be shopping, is going to instill enough confidence to keep guys like Evan and others from saying “adios”?

    Who could we get as a new HC who would make us an attractive option for a FA QB like Cousins to want to come here, especially if we lose Evans and others? There’s only one HC candidate out there who could possibly save this team from itself and that’s Harbaugh.

    Otherwise I predict Licht will thrill the fans by drafting a QB in round 1 of the draft and, even if he’s really good, he’ll either get his development stunted like Mayfield did by not having decent coaches around him early on or worse….the team will stubbornly mortgage their future around the kid, hoping to prove to the world that he was a great pick, kind of like what the Panthers are doing with Bryce Young.

    To my eyes it’s Harbaugh or bring back the Creamsicles for the next 5 to 10 years.

  33. Buccos Says:

    Yes I agree we definitely should have re-signed Keanu Neal. If he is good enough to start for Pittsburgh he is definitely good enough to start here. Way more impactful than this azz clown Ryan Neal. He is a serious thumper like John Lynch

  34. Conner50 Says:


    So the ones on the inside of one Buc place know trask ain’t it huh? So your saying you trust Bowles,Canales evaluation on a qb when they have proved they are not the future Tampa needs. Lmao

  35. Defense Rules Says:

    Glass Used to be Half Full Guy … ‘Who could we get as a new HC who would make us an attractive option for a FA QB like Cousins to want to come here, especially if we lose Evans and others? There’s only one HC candidate out there who could possibly save this team from itself and that’s Harbaugh.’

    Bucs’ ownership probably knew last year that it was time for a full rebuild, but hung on for 1 year too long because Brady agreed to come back. We spent a ton of money last year trying to stay relevant for 1 last shot, but to no avail. We did have a fairly decent 2022 draft however (Goedeke, White, Otton, Camarda, McCollum and who knows, maybe Hall eventually) and that’s a respectable start to the rebuild.

    The 2023 draft continued that rebuild with some intriguing talent (Kancey, Mauch, Diaby, Palmer and hopefully Dennis, Durham & Hayes). Plus we added several other rookies (Izien, Watts & a couple others) who might be able to help us down the line.

    We’ve got several other decent players still on their 1st contract (Wirfs, Winfield in particular) plus several young veterans (Vea, Godwin for starters) who we can build around. Got a hunch that most of our older veterans (Evans, Shaq, LVD among others) will be moving on after this year.

    Add all those guys together and we’ve probably got 25-30 ‘keepers’. That’d put us in a position of needing to replace about half of our roster with ‘quality talent’. We obviously can’t do that in a year, or even 2. Our only recourse is to set our priorities & rebuild through the draft like we’ve been doing. Hopefully we can develop the talent that we draft such that we can retain them after their 1st contract ends.

    And that’s where the next coaching staff comes in. We can’t be looking for a 1 year turnaround; it’s not feasible IMO. We need a coach who’ll be great at developing talent AND is in it for the long haul. I don’t think Harbaugh’s THAT GUY, but I have no clue what experienced HC … and key coordinators … would even want to tackle the situation the Bucs are facing.

  36. 1sparkybuc Says:

    If Mayfield plays the rest of the season, the Bucs will go two wins (Carolina) and four losses. Oh, and we still won’t have factual evidence whether Trask can succeed at this level. His success in college is there for all to see. They can’t deny that, though truth has reall taken a beating over the last seven years.

  37. stpetebucfan Says:

    @Irish Laughter

    One day I’m going to make it to the home of my ancestors. I might have to take up up for a pint in Dublin.

    In the meantime if you ever make it back to Tampa Bay let me know. I live just across the bay in St. Pete, I even have a spare bedroom for an ACTUAL Irishman!
    Certainly I can give you a great tour. If I ever make to the Emerald Isle you can return the favor.

  38. MadMax Says:

    Conner, something’s up or he would be out there, simple as that. My guess is inconsistency….maybe it’s something else, i dont know. The whole thing just looks funny and smells funny. And yeah, like we should trust this coaching staff, im 100 there with you on that. But i trust mr Light unless he’s given up too. If i was Light, id say reel it in, rest Bakers ankle, start trask tomorrow and the next one and see what we’ve got. Pass the test or fail. Why not? Thats just what i would do.

  39. MadMax Says:

    ^^^hahaha, and Nix has better comps and looks better than those other 3…. go back to your studies kid, you look stupid.

  40. orlbucfan Says:

    DR, you don’t have a crystal ball just like me. We have plenty of fake fans on here, but you aren’t one of them. How do you know ME13 and LVD are leaving? There’s plenty of players that better be gone like D. White. That will start loosening up the stranglehold of the cap. My concern is Canales. Is he cutting it or not? So far, nope.