Bucs Have 15 Percent Likelihood Of Postseason Play

November 27th, 2023


It was a rough weekend for Bucs optimists, but hope is easy to find if you want to.

The Bucs are 4-7, just a game behind both the NFC South-leading Saints and Falcons at 5-7. Yesterday, the Saints were humbled in Atlanta 24-15. Atlanta ran the ball down the Saints’ throats. Joe watched the game this morning — 41 carries for 228 yards. The approach was right out of the 1980s.

The Falcons and Saints have one more game against each other and the reeling Bucs face each team one more time.

Per the New York Times playoff probability calculator, the Bucs have a 15 percent likelihood of earning a Wild Card berth (that took a hit with Week 12 wins by the Rams and Packers) and an 11 percent shot at winning the NFC South. Atlanta leads the division with a 55 percent probability of finishing first.

Of course, the Bucs have lost six of seven games, so this all seems rather silly. But it will all be very real if Tampa Bay can beat 1-10 Carolina on Sunday and the Saints lose to the Lions and Atlanta can’t find its way past the Jets in New Jersey.

50 Responses to “Bucs Have 15 Percent Likelihood Of Postseason Play”

  1. Arn Platz Says:

    This team right now making the playoffs would be ugly. Hosting a wild card team, Dallas or? Whoever it is no thanks to being a embarrassed on national television.

  2. Boss Says:

    just glad the game was not on in my area. did not even have to consider watching.

    thats how bad this team is.

  3. Aaron Says:

    Some where if you listen closely – you can hear Jim Mora

  4. ChattBucsFan Says:

    Seasons over, as should be this coaching staff and GM. Licht has bungled drafts and coaching hires and should not be here to hire the next HC and manage draft. To date he has a 70-87 W/L record as GM and, if you take out the years where he rubbed the lamp and got Brady and some of his friends, his record is an abysmal 38-69. He has to go.

  5. SB~LV Says:


  6. Tbbucs3 Says:

    The Colts loss was likely the nail in the coffin….

    Its a damn shame that Licht ruined last years stout defense by letting key affordable players walk and replacing them with bust Ryan Neal and Greg Gaines.

    While the offense took a small step forward from last year, the defense took a giant step back.

  7. David Says:

    The fat lady was in the room and she has been singing since we lost three games in a row at home. Most Fans don’t want to fill the stands. There has to be a drastic change starting this Sunday.

    Shocker news: Bucs only have won three games more that a worst team in NFL.

    Fire Toilet Bowl now and bench Baker now. Why is he still here ? We can easily go 6-0 with a new coach and Trask. Bucs fans have spoken per polls. They don’t want Todd Bowls.

  8. Buc1987 Says:

    At this point…just tank.

  9. Havenbuc Says:

    Season died with the offense that has scored above 21 3/11 times this year. I still have hope though, I saw a spark at the end of the 1st drive…

  10. David Says:

    Can you imagine Bucs do not fire Toilet Bowl or bench Baker and we lose to 1-10 Panthers with their busted qb ? That will go down as the most disappointed season, worst HC and GM in Bucs history.

    Not too late: Preferably fire Toilet Bowl. If not, bench Baker and start Trask. I guarantee we will win. Even if we lose at least Bucs will reflect their desire for change in addressing their fans requests.

  11. Buckeyebuckchuck Says:

    Kirk to Spock: ” Never tell me the odds”

  12. SlyPirate Says:

    Do we really want to see the Bucs get embarrassed in the playoffs again?

  13. BA’s Red Pen Says:

    What’s the percentage that every head coach in this crappy division get fired this year?

  14. Cobraboy Says:


    At this point I hope the Kitties catch fire!

    A top 3 pick sounds nice.

  15. Upstate NY BUC Says:

    I kind of felt sorry for Bowles yesterday!! Clearly his DEFENSIVE players have quit on him.. Devin White are you kidding me, Terrible. Kancy was nice!! But otherwise every player was dogging it! It was disgusting because the night before I watched a High School defense win a State championship with my son.. 15 year old was even disgusted with that lousy performance, sorry for the rant!!!

  16. WyomingJoe Says:

    The Bucs are still in the hunt no matter what the haters on this site say. I’ve never given up on Baker and the boys and neither should any real fan. There are a number of good teams with 5 and 6 losses, and I suppose their “fan” bases are whining just like ours.

  17. DS Says:

    I’m content with the tank and cleaning house

  18. Onetrickpony Says:

    We don’t need the on purpose, TB is doing that for us all on his own

  19. Tucker Says:

    Lol yup one game out of first in the division and three games from being the worst team in the league, it’s a bucs life.

  20. stpetebucfan Says:

    I can no longer defend Bowles. He’s a defensive coach and it’s the defense that has failed just as badly if not worse than the offense. The D can’t cover receivers and THEY CAN’T TACKLE!!!

    If the Bucs had the SB defensive play of a few years back they could easily be 7-4 instead of 4-7. Then people would really be screaming for Baker’s head saying he won’t get us past the first round of the playoffs.

    I do NOT want to trash it and start fresh! I DO NOT want to waste draft capital on a QB in the first round. Do we respect John Lynch? Of course. He signed off on trading THREE FIRST ROUND picks and ended up with a 4th rounder next year and he hit the freaking LOTTO when Mr. Irrelevant turned out to be good.
    But of course Lynch had already built a great team for whichever QB.

    Do whatever it takes to get Jim Harbaugh!!! He’s a winner who can coach and who knows talent! He succeeded with the much maligned Colin Kaepernik at QB. The dude is a flat out WINNER!

    13 YRS as a college coach…115-46 just over 70% win %.
    4 yrs NFL 44-19 just a whisker under 70%

    And he could actually PLAY QB.

    During his college career, he completed 387-of-620 passes for 5,449 yards and 31 touchdowns; all four statistical categories still list among the top 12 in school history.

    in the NFL Jim Harbaugh played 14 seasons for 4 teams, including the Bears and Colts. He threw for 26,288 yards and 129 touchdowns. He was selected to play in 1 Pro Bowl.

    He won’t be cheap but the good news is he won’t affect the salary cap!

    $$$ and roster control. I like JL and think he’s done a good job but Harbaugh would be worth his surrender of some power. GET HARBAUGH!

  21. Buc1987 Says:

    Yep keeping Bowels is just like tanking.

  22. stpetebucfan Says:

    BTW NO a 1000X NO to Bill Belechick. He’s a great defensive mind who failed as a head coach without Brady. He sucked in Cleveland, had a losing record with the Pats until the GOAT showed up. No credit for BB there he waited until the SIXTH round to select Brady. He’s lost since Brady left.

    IE Literally without Brady…BB is a LOSER! That’s just simple scoreboard not my opinion…a FACT!

    Just the ticket…a LOSING HC with the worst personality in the league!!!

    If they sign BB they lose at least one fan! I’m NEVER going to root for a Bill Belichik team!

  23. SB~LV Says:

    Does that mean
    85% chance not to make it?

  24. Marine Buc Says:

    @ Buckeye

    “Kirk to Spock: ” Never tell me the odds””

    I thought it was Han Solo’s comment to C3PO… lol.

  25. ElioT Says:


    100% – couldn’t agree more.

    Glazer’s need to clean house with the exception of Mike Greenberg.

    Maybe a President of Football Operations is in order, someone who can find the next GM & HC.

  26. Buckeyebuckchuck Says:

    Marine Buc, i believe you’re right but Kirk said it first. Anyway, sweep the division games and the odds go up exponentially. Somewhere on the order of Mayfield either bitch slapped David S or had his GF at some point in the past. Not enough data there

  27. Joe Says:

    Marine Buc:

    Please check “Morning Cup of Joe.” There is a Marines element that want your feedback on.

  28. ChattBucsFan Says:


    Maybe someone like Derrick Brooks or Ronde Barber?

  29. realistic-optimistic Says:

    As long as we’re mathematically alive Bowles gets a free pass to run this team into the ground. Watch us enter week 18 at 6-10, still alive.

  30. TampaBayBucsFanSince1976 Says:


  31. Hodad Says:

    Atlanta will sweep us, and the old Saints, and win the divsion. There will be three new H.C.’s in the South next year. Riecht is gone already, Allen, and Bowles will be holding the door for each other on the way out.

  32. D-Rome Says:

    Kyle Trask should start if that becomes 0% chance.

  33. First Name Greatest Says:

    Jeez, Todd Bowles sure knows how to kill my optimism.

  34. Let EM Bake Says:

    Question: Just before the Colts made that 4th down conversion over the top, and the Bucs put all 11 on the line, wouldn’t a time out at that critical juncture been the correct move? Is no one screaming in his earpiece from up top? And not challenging MEs late grab on the sideline? I like Bowles, and respect his cool demeanor, but I don’t want a cool demeanor when the game is on the line. Critical mistakes late, the failure to huddle the troops ( Houston end game meltdown) are mistakes great coaching doesn’t make . I do give him credit for that ballsy fourth and ten call ( great pass/ catch)..I dunno..Id love to see Harbaugh with Baker .

  35. Pewter power Says:

    Playoffs!!!! The Bucs are done. We’re back to those days of players making their family vacation plans before December. Hey great job Bowles, I really do think you and lovie hang out in the offseason.

  36. EEK Says:

    trending toward zero

  37. Tb bolts Says:

    Wyjoe “I’ve never given up on Baker”

    We know man. We know.

  38. PewterStiffArm Says:

    Playoffs, Playoffs??

  39. Crazyhorse54 Says:

    Just stop with all this playoff talk. The NFC South is an embarrassment. Someone will win because they have to have a winner with a pathetic record. Not one team deserves to be in the playoffs. So, let’s not talk like this is something grand.

  40. UKBuccaneer Says:

    If Trask comes in and fails, there’s going to be a lot of excuses made as to why he failed. ‘It was the blocking, it was the lack of running game. It was coaching, it was the defense’

    Mark it.

  41. Rod Munch Says:

    UKBuccaneer Says:
    November 27th, 2023 at 4:35 pm
    If Trask comes in and fails, there’s going to be a lot of excuses made as to why he failed. ‘It was the blocking, it was the lack of running game. It was coaching, it was the defense’

    Mark it.


    Get over it dude.

    Everyone has already explained to you, it’s not about people thinking Trask is better – it’s the unknown and getting ready for the rebuild. Baker isn’t the answer, and he’s not under contract next year – you have one QB under contract next year, you need to know if he’s any good or not. Most likely, he’s not, but the Bucs wasted a 2nd rounder on him, so you might as well see what you have.

    Baker stinks, he’s a loser, a choke artist, literally the worst QB in football the previous two years, and now that things have started to go bad for him this year, history shows he’s only going to get worse.

    If you actually care more about the Bucs than being a Baker Boi, you’d get on board now, since Baker is about to fall off a cliff. There’s nothing in his history that says he will bounce back at this point – everything shows he will press, and his play will only get worse from here.

    If you think winning now is important, than you’d want him out of the game, because he inevitably has his full fledged meltdown, which is coming in the next few weeks.

  42. Rod Munch Says:


    LETS GOOO!!!!!


  43. UKBuccaneer Says:

    I do care about winning now, Rod. You’re right. That’s why I don’t think it’s wise to hand the team over to a guy who’s attempted 9 passes is his 3 year NFL career with a season on the line. How often do rookies (because that’s essentially what Trask is) light it up when game time comes? Pretty rare, right?

    Of course you’ll be one of the ones making excuses for him. It’s ok dude, I see you.

  44. K_bassuka Says:

    The chances drop to 1 percent chance when Maybefield is the QB1.

  45. SBucs Says:

    15% seems awfully high considering that they’ll win only one game in the next six.

  46. Rod Munch Says:

    UKBuccaneer – the team is 2-7 over its last 9 and is in a full collapse with Baker in charge. What exactly makes you think this guy who has a history of doing this, of looking OK for a while, followed by a massive collapse, is suddenly going to turn things around?

    The Bucs are not making the playoffs, even in the NFC South, with Baker as the QB – not unless somehow the math works out to being able to win a division with 6 wins (which is the upper end of the win scale).

    Trask is at least a wild card, if he comes in and steady the ships, maybe puts up more than 18 points a game and 230 yards a week passing, perhaps the Bucs can turn it around.

    But in any case, if you just keep doing what you’re doing, it only ends in disaster.

  47. BucsFan2520 Says:

    Mayfield hasn’t played a full season since 2020 when he helped get the browns to the playoffs and win a game. In 2021 he was injured and 2022 the browns held out so long that he had no shot wherever he went. The guy should be given a year to get comfortable with the offense, and be judged next year. Clearly hasn’t been great this year but let’s slow down on the hot takes and give a little room. This team needs more help at other positions that qb.

  48. Rod Munch Says:

    BucsFan2520 – Baker has literally started 35 games since 2021, going 12-23 in those games, with a pace, on a 17 game season of 3600 yards, 20 TDs and 12 INTs, which is terrible for a QB in 2023.

    The idea that he needs to start an entire season, all in a row, before you can judge him is truly ridiculous. Also he’s not under contract, and in case you didn’t know, the Bucs don’t have any cap room next year. The idea of sticking with this dullard at QB, on an inflated contract where he’s getting $20-million, to go 5-12 again next year, is truly disturbing – not to mention him getting $20-million means you’re losing Evans for sure. No thanks, I’ll take my chances with Trask and Evans, and whatever QB we’re drafting with the 5th overall pick that Baker got us.

  49. BucsFan2520 Says:

    Trask hahaha

  50. Conner50 Says:

    Start Trask if he can help this offense score more than 18 pts per game and win games, then perhaps we don’t need to draft a qb, not saying mayfield is bad but he’s not the answer. Think our first pick should be the best offensive lineman available imo