Bucs Playoff Percentages Take Massive Hit

October 30th, 2023

Bucs coach Todd Bowles.

Losing three games in a row has turned the Bucs from a possible playoff team to one standing in line outside the restaurant waiting for a table to open.

A week ago, just losing to the Dixie Chicks saw the Bucs’ playoff probabilities plummet from 73 percent to 40 percent. Some folks who play with calculators to determine playoff probabilities think the Bucs really took a knee to the groin losing to the Bills on Thursday night.

The New York Timesplayoff probability chart now has the Bucs with a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs.

That is better than PlayoffStatus.com. A site dedicated to tracking NFL team’s playoff probabilities, it has the Bucs with a 15 percent shot of winning the NFC South and an eight percent chance of landing a wild card berth.

The same site gives the Bucs a 55 percent shot of missing the playoffs.

One way to change this narrative? Beat a rookie quarterback next week in Houston.

20 Responses to “Bucs Playoff Percentages Take Massive Hit”

  1. Bucfan1988 Says:

    I do wanna see Trask running the offense before the Bucs are totally out of it…

    Mayfield had turned into Captain Checkdown…
    He’s scared to pull the trigger and push the ball down the middle of the field…

    I just feel like Trask may open some eyes….

  2. optimisticbucsfan Says:

    Play the kids…zero reason to even try to make the playoffs.

    We are in a rebuild. Let’s be honest with each other.

  3. Tye Says:

    Today could very well be the turning point!
    While the Bucs seem to be getting left behind by the rest of the league (49ers and Chiefs on losing streaks) The Saints and Falcons both seem to improve greatly…
    Saints were playing like their old selves and the Falcon realized their best QB was on the side lines…..

    IF the Bucs don’t step up this next game, just fire Bowels NOW and play to evaluate players for the future!

  4. Proudbucsfan Says:

    I don’t think we are going to win another game. Maybe the panthers once.

  5. Tony Marks Says:

    As a programmer by trade this is faaaaaar from impressive. Every such algorithm feeds in assumptions. So the numbers change every time an actual game is played and it doesn’t match the assumption in the algorithm

    Whats usually never fed into the algo ( because its much more difficult if not impossible to program in)is the fact that in the NFL every week there are unexpected wins and losses.

    IN other words its a veritable LOCK that the numbers expressed are not going to be an accurate reflection of anything. Due to the nature of the NFl over two to three weeks span the chances are near 100% the assumptions are wrong for some games. Its more entertaining than meaningful until you get much later in the season

    The ONLY number that matter is the bucs are half a game from the division title . It s totally insane as some are trying to push that the season is over.

  6. Hammerhead Says:

    Play Tony Dungy/Canales run the ball up the gut it’s probably to late.
    Have to win.

    Or do we play Wayne Fontes Detroit Lions football and coach so we’ll you get fired because you drafted mid teens every year.

    We forever Buccaneers fans know where Fontes was from don’t we.
    He Coached himself out of a job and he grew up in Tampa.

  7. David Says:

    Bucs are third in their crappiest division with a busted HC and QB. Toilet Bowls made a risky decision to hire Baker and his gambling did not work out. Bench the trash Baker now and start Trask to defeat the Texans.

  8. adam from ny Says:

    seems we play 2 rookie qb’s back to back in houston and what seems to be with tennessee as well…

    back to back rookie qb’s for a so called wizard head coach/dc means we should be in good shape going into san fran…

    because san fran has come down to earth and their qb purdy is looking more turdy

  9. garro Says:

    Playoffs? …Playoffs!!?? Said in my best Jim Mora voice…Geez!

    Lets just hope for a few more competitive games and maybe lucking in to a few more wins. If the refs will let us play football that is.

    Go Bucs!

  10. Darin Says:

    Yeah we’re talking about playoffs. With bowles and Mayfield we are talking playoffs. And Bucsfan…that’s Mayfield his whole career. He’s scared to pull the trigger because he cant see the field and anticipate. Ten points a game bake

  11. Hodad Says:

    As it stands three teams, us Atl, NO, have a 50, 50 chance to win the division. Just check yo sheet. Winner will probably have a 8-9, 9-8 record, and it might come down to a tie breaker. As others have said, what does it matter?

  12. Fansince76 Says:

    Buc’s seem to have a terrible record against rookie QBs!

  13. Defense Rules Says:

    Hodad … I was thinking the exact same thing as I read this article & comments. All 3 are fighting for bragging rights to be ‘The Best of the Worst’. And the prize is? Drafting much lower.

  14. power sweep Says:

    Tye Says: “The Falcons realized their best QB was on the side lines.”

    You don’t say!

  15. D Cone Says:

    As it sits right now it’s Philly, Detroit, Atlanta, SF, Dallas on the the inside. Spot 6 looked like it might be the Vikings until yesterday. That leaves 2 spots and as it looks right now they could come from the ‘’worse’ Division in the NFC.

    Lions were 1-6 coming out of the gate in 22 and finished just a little short. 3-4 is not much better but still in it.
    I don’t see where selling off parts for picks is a good idea when the picks from last year have not even been playing long enough to get a grip on playing at the NFL level.

    Not every pick is going to be a Tristen Wirf and excel right out of the box.

    Both lines have plenty of room for improvement and don’t need to go 8-2 the rest of the way like the Lions did. 6-4 might just be good enough to at least get a spot. From there I don’ see much happening but at least they finish in the top half of the Conference.

  16. Bojim Says:

    They won’t play Trask bececause Mayfields not the problem. If they don’t get a RB by the deadline they’re looking ahead to the draft. I’d love to see what Trask can do but that’s not the problem.

  17. Jeff Says:

    Playoffs! 😂😂😂 We need to start talking about new head coach candidates for the soon to be open vacancy in Tampa.

  18. power sweep Says:

    Bojim Says: “They won’t play Trask because Mayfield’s not the problem.”

    Mayfield IS the problem. That said, Bowles won’t play Trask because Bowles cannot risk Trask looking good, as Trask did when Bowels started him in preseason away against the Jets and Trask’s performance forced Bowles to postpone his (predetermined) quarterback announcement. Bowles would look like an utter idiot if he started Trask now and Trask put looked good and put up points (like fellow second-rounder Will Levis did yesterday). Bowles can’t take that risk.

  19. Lokog Says:

    Why do we want to go to the playoffs for just to get blown out we couldn’t beat a sorry team like the failcons who straight up suck. This team has no heart

  20. Bucs Fan Says:

    Bucs are 1 game behind in the division and everyone is panicking. Yes we have problems but I’d take our team over any other team in our division. We already beat the Saints and I’m confident we’ll beat them again. I believe we’ll split with the Falcons and sweep the Panthers. Winning the division is very much in reach. I don’t think any team in our division could beat the Eagles, Lions, or the Bills. Everyone wants to jump ship all the sudden. Losing sucks but being fair weather fans suck more! Go Bucs!