BSPN: Chaos Is Coming

October 7th, 2023

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield.

Numbers guys don’t like Baker Mayfield.

Joe has learned this in the months following the Bucs signing Mayfield. The numbers guys almost hate him.

So it is no surprise to Joe that a numbers guy who predicted chaos if the Bucs chose Mayfield as a starter believes chaos is coming. Just wait, types Seth Walder of BSPN. Walder, a guy who never met a number he didn’t like, believes it is a matter of time before the Bucs bench Mayfield. And Kyle Trask, Walder types, likely won’t be any better.

Original prediction: Three QBs (Baker Mayfield, Kyle Trask and John Wolford) will start for the Bucs this season.

Why I’m pivoting: Mayfield has been … good! He ranks seventh in QBR (68.9) and sixth in completion percentage over expectation (plus-6%), per NFL Next Gen Stats. I remain unconvinced, however, because I remember Mayfield’s 26 QBR from his time with the Panthers and Rams last season. I’ll amend this prediction to be: At some point Mayfield will hit a cold streak, and the Bucs will bench him for Trask, but then turn back to Mayfield before the end of the season, because I’m guessing the Trask experiment won’t work, either.

For Mayfield to get benched, he would have to play so horrifically it would make folks beg for the Bucs to sign Mike Glennon. Joe doesn’t believe Mayfield can or will sink to that level.

If Mayfield gets benched, that tells Joe that Bucs coach Todd Bowles is panicking. And if he is panicking, that means his job is on the line.

And that means a new quarterback getting selected in April’s draft.

59 Responses to “BSPN: Chaos Is Coming”

  1. HC Grover Says:

    Mayfield is not bad. The test is the LIONS but it is a test of the whole team and system. beat them and we are looking good. A loss would mean not ready for good teams.

  2. Tye Says:

    They’ve been predicting bad things for the Bucs all year long…
    Until things actually go south, things like this is just coming from doom and gloom writers pulling things out of their But!

  3. Casual Observer Says:

    Just hot air. This is a new season. And a good one.

  4. BA’s Red Pen Says:

    3-1 is my favorite number of Baker’s.

  5. Citrus County Says:

    That was a big hunk of bait you just tossed out Joe.

  6. Don’t tell me it’s raining Says:

    Ja ja ja!

  7. Woodenman Says:

    Yada,yada,yada, just refuses to be wrong.

  8. Joe in Michigan Says:

    What did this ESPN one-man-circle-j£rk predict the Bucs record to be this year? The Bucs probably already have more wins than he predicted them having for THE WHOLE SEASON. Hahahahahahahaha

  9. sasquatch Says:

    I don’t agree with this guy. The Bucs will stick with Mayfield unless he starts to turn the ball over consistently. His grasp on the job is not as tenuous as the national people think, and I believe the Bucs are committed to him and will show it. All the talk from Jason Licht about the players loving Mayfield, I believe is sincere. He’d really have to go off the rails badly to be replaced. I don’t see that happening.

  10. Citrus County Says:

    There was absolutely nothing wrong with my first, second, or third attempt at a recent post.

    I will regroup and try later because it was a good one. It involved a recent exchange with Ira and Lee.

    Had this have been a call in show, I know there would have been a laugh or two.

  11. Kord Says:

    None of these people watch bucs games, none of them

  12. K_bassuka Says:

    Well darn! Not even I would come up with such harsh conclusions about Maybefield. As long as the defense and special teams keeps us in games I don’t see reason for Barker to struggle or start forcing things.

  13. Walter Says:

    My message to Seth Walder: This isn’t last years Ram’s or Carolina Panthers, there is no logic in basing Mayfield failing this season based on his performance on teams with inferior talent last year. This Bucs team is LOADED with talent across the board. And Mayfield has proven that he can lead talented teams to the playoffs.

  14. Craig Says:

    I am not sure if Baker will become the next Ryan Fitzpatrick, but it is possible.

    His historical sample says he only has so many good games. I know that if he plays well the Bucs will have to pay big next season, and that might doom the Bucs for quite a while.

    Right now I just want to see him and the team play well. Not a bad run so far, but it is going to get tougher. They had two cupcakes and a contender so far, the next game will tell us a lot. I hope it is good.

  15. ScottyMack Says:

    Remind me, please, what really good teams did the Bucs beat last year? Remember, the Bucs were supposed to absolutely suck this year with Mayfield and a bunch of rookies and second year players starting due to the salary cap jail the Bucs are in. Anyone who thinks the Bucs need to beat one of the top teams in the NFL in order to gain their respect is definitely not a true fan of the team.

  16. orlbucfan Says:

    joes, under what rock do you check to find these yahoos? Just once, I want to read a B(lech)SPN deal that sounds like they halfway did their homework!

  17. orlbucfan Says:

    These B(lech)SPN yahoos really need to do their homework.

  18. orlbucfan Says:

    Sorry about the duplicate post. 🙄

  19. A Bucs Fan Says:

    The only thing that will sink the ship this season is injuries.

  20. Big Papi Rojo Says:

    Baker’s been okay. Only been with the organization for 6 months? Running live reps with team for 12 weeks? Barring injuries he should only get more comfortable with the offense. His accuracy leaves much to be desired in comparison to the Brady’s of the universe. I think we’ll win another 6 to 9 games. Probably get punted in the wildcard or divisional game. Our defense would really need to carry us come playoff time if we’re going to beat the philly’s or niners. Pass rush needs to level up. Best way to mask vulnerable secondary is by getting to the QB.

  21. stpetebucfan Says:

    Bucs Fan

    I agree injuries are the major threat. And while I’m very positive I have to confess we have a lot of potential problems with health. DW45’s groin, ME’s Hammy’s, Baker’s shoulder, Vita’s pec, Calijah’s calf, David and Dean never play an entire season hopefully they both have their injuries past them for this year, Shaq’s repaired achilles…if I was a nervous nellie I’d be upset but then I remember the Serenity prayer…Accept the things I can’t change and enjoy it all while we can.

  22. stpetebucfan Says:

    Oops…Davis as in Carlton not David as in Lavonte.

  23. Citrus County Says:

    The 4th attempt at that post got kicked out immediately apparently for no reason other than the previous posts weren’t allowed.

    What a world we live in. Random series of letters representing vulgarity can pass muster. But clean humor can’t.

  24. James Says:

    I have to be honest, I don’t like this media tour Baker has been on this past week. Feels like he’s gone from having something to prove to being cocky and I think it will affect his play. He also went from low expectations to high expectations which will affect him mentally.

  25. A Bucs Fan Says:

    @Stpete I’m with you! That’s why the bye week being so early works out this year. The big test will be December football. How healthy are the Bucs then, has the offense progressed and scoring more points? Will the defense hold up? And will the young players Zyon, Dee, Izien, Mauch, Yaya, Thompkins, Palmer continue to overperform and avoid the “rookie wall.”?

    All time will tell.

  26. A Bucs Fan Says:

    @Citrus County – don’t take it personal. It happens from time to time. It’s not a person but the mod thinks you’re spam or commenting too fast.

    From my own experience it gets released some times. Other times I think it just gets deleted. mod jail lasts a day or two.. unless you’ve insulted Joe directly or persistently attacking others/not talking football.

  27. Beej Says:

    Joe bought the mod software at Walmart

  28. Wild Bill Says:

    My concern about Baker is he gives himself up running with the ball. I know he is going all out to prove to the team and the fans that he deserves the job and is much better than the past few seasons indicated. Well I believe he is a good qb. And perhaps one of the more exciting qbs in the league. And the teams that make the playoffs are likely the teams that are lucky with few injuries to key players. So if Baker is reading this (haha) be a little more careful man!!!!

  29. Joshua porter Says:

    I think they draft a qb no matter what the bucs do this year. With all the good qb’s this year wouldn’t it be irresponsible not to?

  30. D Cone Says:

    In that Amazing 11-5 season with the Browns two wins were against teams that finished above .500. One 8-8. One 7-9. Seven wins against teams that won anywhere from 1 and 4 games.

    Once again Baker is shining against bad completion. They had Cleveland Fans in a Frenzy too. ‘This is the Year’ Baker’s gonna take us to the Super Bowl.

    I’m not expecting too much from him either. He’ll play well, get a nice deal next year, and a team will be paying him to play somewhere else.

  31. B Says:

    I mean they are just making the point Baker is historically a streaky quarterback. Which is objectively true. Thats why he’s on team number 4.

  32. Pewter Power Says:

    Who the hell cares about your prediction. You have no title probably no real football knowledge outside of math. Why did the nfl make these nerds relevant.

  33. A Bucs Fan Says:

    @ D Cone that statistic doesn’t carry a lot of weight when you consider Bucs most recent success.

    The Bucs SB season they beat one winning team (GB) and out of the other 10 wins 9 of them were under .500. 7 teams winning 6 or less.

    It’s all about timing. Hopefully the team continues to grow and is playing their best football in December.

  34. Defense Rules Says:

    Seth Walder of BSPN should’ve been a meteorologist. If they bat 50% the world’s good & their bosses are happy. Unfortunately he’s on the wrong side of 50% on this one. By his own admission, he’s already pivoted once. There ya go, 50% at best to start with.

    And Joe, you know Todd Bowles much better than any of us I’m sure. Does he seem like the type of coach who ‘panics’? If Mayfield does for some reason end up getting benched, it’ll be because he’s playing crappy football, not because Bowles is panicking. But I agree with your last line in any event. Odds are excellent that the Bucs will end up taking a QB in Rnd 1 (Rnd 2 at the latest) IF there’s one available when we pick who fits what Licht, Bowles & company are looking for in QB.

  35. Irish Laughter Says:

    Baker is a diamond in the rough. He was a tremendous college player and would be a no brainer for high success in the NFL if he hadn’t would up on the no class Browns. If Baker could have started his career with the Bucs, we would be working on our 3rd Super Bowl by now. Go Baker and Go Bucs!!!!

  36. Old School Bucs Says:

    If Mayfield gets benched it wont be because of Mayfield per se. Just as the team success to this point isnt because of Mayfield per se. O line doin gits job and the defense preventing big plays. That had been the success of this team and what wD missing last year. So the numbers guys can punch numbers on their calculators all they want. If the Oline sucks and the D is getting gashed to hen this team goes no where. The game against the lions will tell me how good this team will be. Tough as nails team that plays D and has a great Oline.

  37. John McKay Says:

    another JBF Cassandra piece

  38. Marine Buc Says:

    To quote Al Davis – “Just win baby!”

  39. Bucs4Life Says:

    More hot air blowing from a who’s who in the world of professional football. Let the man play, it’s solely up to him wether he’s gonna do hero $hit or be a failure. I personally hope he has the best season of his career and throw a middle finger up at all of ‘em. Go Bucs!

  40. Crickett Baker Says:

    I’m glad to see Baker enjoying the bye. Especially his joy at the OU win. He should know partying will be for only 24 hours at a time (mostly) from now on. We will be in Very, VERY serious mode.

  41. 1#bucsfan Says:

    Team sport. The loss to the eagles isn’t on baker. It’s on the whole team win or lose against the lions and it’s on the team unless baker pulls a Winston and just gives the ball over like candy on holloween. Doubt that happens. Seems like baker isn’t trying to be super man and plays with in the systems which shows he’s matured. He’s playing with heart and being smart. What more could you ask for. The more the offense plays the more it will develop and get better let’s go Bucs

  42. Capt.Tim Says:

    Hard to be stupid and full of sh*t.
    Isnt it, Seth Walder

  43. R. Strader Says:

    @Irish Laughter…

    I love your take and optimism!

    I’m lovin’ Baker and the Bucs!

    We got positive vibes goin’!


  44. garro Says:

    Laughable Joe

    A stat nerd says…”because I’m guessing”

    Go Bucs!

  45. AtlBuc Says:

    I was really wanting Trask to start but right now, I think Baker is best for the team. I think this analyst and all of the other analysts are wrong because they fail to recognize one fact: For the first time in his career there’s no pressure on Mayfield. Even when he had the great defenses and running backs in Cleveland, there was stress with OBJ.
    For the first time, Baker is surrounded with non-diva talent. As a result, he doesn’t have to try to make the big play with his arm.
    Also, with Canales’ offense, he’s hitting his receivers almost wide open. Even when they’re covered, the receivers are always in a good position to make the catch.

  46. stpetebucfan Says:

    Joshua and D.R. As far as spending a lot of draft capital on a QB in the next draft…I beg to disagree a bit here…assuming(and we know how dangerous that is) Baker stays healthy and plays at his current level.

    “wouldn’t it be irresponsible not to?”

    “Odds are excellent that the Bucs will end up taking a QB in Rnd 1 (Rnd 2 at the latest)”

    Baker already fits the mold of a Bowles/Canales QB. I suspect that fit along of course with the experience differential is why Trask is still holding the clipboard.

    Perhaps I’ve fallen under the spell of all the UF guys here but Trask looked pretty good to me in preseason and according to Joe in practice.

    IF they can afford to resign Trask, and Baker still wants to stay why GAMBLE on a draft pick QB who have shown nothing in the NFL. They’ve been playing with kids not men and it frequently shows up after they’re drafted.

    The only advantage I see is that a drafted QB gives a few years of contract relief compared to what Baker will be able to command.

  47. AnonymousBucsFan76 Says:

    I didn’t think much of Baker coming in…

    I thought Kyle out performed him in camp and deserved to be the starter, however the coaching staff thought otherwise…

    That being said, Baker has been solid at best as the starter; the one thing he does well that Brady never could is improvise when the play breaks down…

    Our inability to run the football consistently is my biggest concern at the moment…

  48. JD Still Says:

    I don’t know why the word “hate” is used so irresponsibly, it has nothing to do with “hate” , that would be irrational, what it does have to deal with rationally are numbers, statistics , and probability, after four games distinct patterns are emerging, we have one of the lowest scoring teams in the league , in our remaining regular season games the only teams that have scored less points than us are the other three teams in our division, and we are tied with one team, Jacksonville, in points scored , that’s it , we also play a good number of top tier teams who have greatly outscored us, Detroit , Buffalo, San Francisco, and Greenbay for example, many of which we will see again if we do make the playoffs, if we do nothing to improve ourselves , probability , pure dumb luck , gives us a chance to beat someone in that top tier on any given day, but not everyday.Our defense and Special teams are playing great , it would be illogical to see great improvement in these groups that are already playing at an extremely high level, and our offense has some great and some very good players , but we are not putting enough points on the board to be competitive in the play offs , so if we have a great receiving corps , a surprisingly good offensive line , and an improving running game , that kind of narrows it down from what position , a position that starts , directs and puts the ball into play on almost every down , the improvement must come .

  49. BucaneroJim Says:

    Hot/Cold guy?

    My guess, is Baker will stay on top of his game this year. He seems very enthused to be at Tampa. Could he go cold?… well, sure any quarterback can (Brady last year). If his production falls, likely it will be injury related. The O-line is looking much better so far and Canales is having success. The D-line is stepping up, too. Our kickers are great… how nice to say that! We shall see about ST over all. It is not all on Baker’s shoulders to singly win every game.

    We are a kind of a half way, first year team. Of course, we will likely lose some games to more established teams. There will be growing pains and surprise pleasures. Bring on the Kitties!

  50. Robbie Says:

    Two words……Aiden Hutchinson!! He will put Baker on his ass and in comes Trask and then we play football!!

  51. Sly Pirate Says:

    I could see his prediction coming through only if Baker gets injured. What might be interesting is if Trask comes in and lights it up. It’d create an interesting off season.

  52. Duane in Sanford Says:

    What the stat guys do not understand is that this team does not need a quarterback to carry it. The defense is heating up. I am not sure you can quantify decision making, but I know when you win on the road in New Orleans convincingly, that its going right. Also very foolish to single out one player for prediction when the whole offensive unit improves each week.

  53. Cobraboy Says:

    I LOL @ Robbie. Somehow, deep in the uncleansed bowels in his Casual Fan World, Mayfield can’t escape an injury from Hutchinson, but Kyle the Statue can.

    All I can do is SMH…

  54. 954Joe Says:

    Win or Lose the Lions game is just one game like the Eagles. a Loss doesn’t mean we arent ready for the good teams. If they’re on the schedule we’re ready

  55. No I in team Says:

    As one bucs fan to another love to see fan loyalty hope Baker,Evans,David and many others get respectful contact extensions.

  56. Pappabill Says:

    Who the hell is..BSPN…
    A numbers guy who probably weights 120 lb with 50% body fat and an iq of.0988554…
    I agree with the number I like is 3-1 with a top 10 QB and 2 top 10 receivers and a top 10 defense
    HOW’S THAT FOR NUMBERS ?????????
    These so called experts have been all over us all year long ……and we’ve proven them wrong all along and they don’t like it so they throw out negative comments hoping we’ll fold somehow……IT AIN’T HAPPENING MR. NUMBERS GUY…..
    After this year it will be 4 straight playoffs…

  57. BakerBucs Says:

    holy cow this garbage never ends baker was busy on his bye week most of it was no pay for his time out of respect & loyalty to all that run their mouths on this site we have a 4 million dollar starting QB doing a really good job for this team yet at least half of the responders on this site is still negativity what in the heck do u get out of constant garbage mouth r u mad at u r wife or u r kids r u mad u don’t have a wife maybe change u r attitude & u might get a wife so get a life if u r on this site say something positive it’s contagious BAKER keep up the good work & word

  58. BakerBucs Says:

    I watched all games today boy the saints killed it but this site most said the saints suck! bills lose,Indy wins etc all these teams except the Panthers can win on any given day.there r like 4 rookie QB that were all supposedly superior new in NFL I don’t c any of that so this year’s draft hype is bogus remember Geno smith sucked not anymore lots on this site says cousins sucks I think u don’t know what u r talking about at least 20 teams wud take cousin in a split sec. BAKER is a hell of a buy how smart was licht positive talk goes a long way

  59. BakerBucs Says:

    I think it’s funny when commentators say baker is a veteran he is only 28 yrs old that means compared to Brady he wud still have 17 more years think about that & stupid stats welcome aboard BAKER