Handicappers weigh in.

People who invest in the NFL (indirectly) are not hip to Bucs stud receiver Mike Evans. This year.

So, so, so many folks are down on Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield outside the Tampa Bay area, so much so that it’s not unusual to read or hear that the Bucs are tanking. Why else would they turn to Mayfield, the NFL sophists wonder?

To many, Mayfield is to football teams what Isiah Thomas is to basketball boardrooms. So in the minds of football short-term investors, this means Evans will have an awful season.

Matt Severance of Sportsline has the numbers, which include bettors wagering that Evans’ streak of 1,000-yard seasons ends this fall.

Here are Mike Evans’ props active at DraftKings:

To win Offensive Player of the Year: +15000
To lead NFL in receiving yards: +6000
To lead NFL in receiving TDs: +2000
To lead NFL in receptions: +8000
Over/Under 925.5 receiving yards: Under -140 favorite
Over/Under 6.5 receiving TDs: Under -145 favorite
Over/Under 65 receptions: Under -125 favorite
To have at least 200 receiving yards in a game: +1000
To have at least 150 receiving yards in a game: -110
To have at least eight 100-yard games: +300

He had the good fortune of catching passes from Tom Brady the past three seasons. Now it will be Baker Mayfield, so one can understand why his yardage total is below 1,000. Evans has 33 career 100-yard games in the regular season, and the Bucs are only 13-20 in those. His career high was 209 yards on Nov. 16, 2014, vs. Washington but had 207 in Week 17 last season vs. Carolina.

Joe understands Mayfield is the easy, knee-jerk culprit for the Fourth Estate to doom Evans’ NFL-record streak of beginning a career with nine straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons.

Joe believes there is a bigger issue here. Bucs coach Todd Bowles wants a run-oriented attack and a measured passing game.

So if a team is going to run more, that means fewer passes. Fewer passes mean fewer yards, in theory.

Since Dirk Koetter’s second season coaching the Bucs, the team has never been lower than sixth in the NFL in pass attempts. The past two seasons, the Bucs led the league in pass attempts. The Seattle Seahawks, former team of new Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales, ranked 15th in pass attempts last season.

Bucco Bruce Arians and Dirk Koetter were big believers in the vertical passing game. Todd Bowles, not so much. This year, look for both pass attempts and passing yards to drop.

That doesn’t help Evans and his streak at all, though Evans had one of his best seasons (96 catches, 1,321 yards) in 2016, when the Bucs were more of a run-first team.

Bucs pass attempts rankings under Dirk Koetter, Bruce Arians and Todd Bowles.
2016: 16th
2017: 3rd
2018: 4th
2019: 4th
2020: 6th
2021: 1st
2022: 1st