Gambling Props For Mike Evans

September 6th, 2023

Handicappers weigh in.

People who invest in the NFL (indirectly) are not hip to Bucs stud receiver Mike Evans. This year.

So, so, so many folks are down on Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield outside the Tampa Bay area, so much so that it’s not unusual to read or hear that the Bucs are tanking. Why else would they turn to Mayfield, the NFL sophists wonder?

To many, Mayfield is to football teams what Isiah Thomas is to basketball boardrooms. So in the minds of football short-term investors, this means Evans will have an awful season.

Matt Severance of Sportsline has the numbers, which include bettors wagering that Evans’ streak of 1,000-yard seasons ends this fall.

Here are Mike Evans’ props active at DraftKings:

To win Offensive Player of the Year: +15000
To lead NFL in receiving yards: +6000
To lead NFL in receiving TDs: +2000
To lead NFL in receptions: +8000
Over/Under 925.5 receiving yards: Under -140 favorite
Over/Under 6.5 receiving TDs: Under -145 favorite
Over/Under 65 receptions: Under -125 favorite
To have at least 200 receiving yards in a game: +1000
To have at least 150 receiving yards in a game: -110
To have at least eight 100-yard games: +300

He had the good fortune of catching passes from Tom Brady the past three seasons. Now it will be Baker Mayfield, so one can understand why his yardage total is below 1,000. Evans has 33 career 100-yard games in the regular season, and the Bucs are only 13-20 in those. His career high was 209 yards on Nov. 16, 2014, vs. Washington but had 207 in Week 17 last season vs. Carolina.

Joe understands Mayfield is the easy, knee-jerk culprit for the Fourth Estate to doom Evans’ NFL-record streak of beginning a career with nine straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons.

Joe believes there is a bigger issue here. Bucs coach Todd Bowles wants a run-oriented attack and a measured passing game.

So if a team is going to run more, that means fewer passes. Fewer passes mean fewer yards, in theory.

Since Dirk Koetter’s second season coaching the Bucs, the team has never been lower than sixth in the NFL in pass attempts. The past two seasons, the Bucs led the league in pass attempts. The Seattle Seahawks, former team of new Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales, ranked 15th in pass attempts last season.

Bucco Bruce Arians and Dirk Koetter were big believers in the vertical passing game. Todd Bowles, not so much. This year, look for both pass attempts and passing yards to drop.

That doesn’t help Evans and his streak at all, though Evans had one of his best seasons (96 catches, 1,321 yards) in 2016, when the Bucs were more of a run-first team.

Bucs pass attempts rankings under Dirk Koetter, Bruce Arians and Todd Bowles.
2016: 16th
2017: 3rd
2018: 4th
2019: 4th
2020: 6th
2021: 1st
2022: 1st

10 Responses to “Gambling Props For Mike Evans”

  1. BillyBucco Says:

    ME13 just needs more of the knock out punch catches when they take the gloves off as Canales put it.
    DK and Lockett thrived just fine in this style of offense.
    If we can run the ball, I still believe ME13 has a better season this year than any season with Brady.
    EVERYONE knew we were passing the ball. BL even abandoned play action.
    ME13 will be the recipient of a ton of good play action passes this year.
    75 receptions
    13 TDs
    1250 yds

  2. garro Says:

    Got Football news Joe?
    Dont give a rip about any mob casinos Joe! Plenty of football in here. –Joe

    Go Bucs!

  3. SufferingSince76 Says:

    So, is the news that contract talks with Evans are moving in the right direction correct or not? One of the posters to that story said it was bogus. Your answer is in what Joe wrote (not the commenter). –Joe

  4. K_bassuka Says:

    One of the main reasons Bowles wants to be a run first team is because if successful it will help the Defense and also because who’s behind center. He doesn’t want to put the game in the hands of unreliable or unproven QBs.

  5. Show Me the TDs Says:

    “Gambling is for suckers! Art Schlichter.

  6. Smoothbayrider Says:

    The 2022 Seahawks had a RB and 2 WR gain over 1000 yards with Geno Smith at the helm. Mike will be just fine.

  7. Infomeplease Says:

    We’ll see how well ME13 will do come Sunday! Don’t bet against him. Only injuries can stop him. LFG!!

  8. Sly Pirate Says:

    A balanced offense doesn’t mean there’s not passing attack. Seattle had 2×1000 yard receivers.

  9. SufferingSince76 Says:

    Thanks, Joe. I’m feeling much better now.

  10. Brad Says:

    Did anyone watch last year? Brady phased Evans out all year until he needed him to get his 1000k at the end.

    Baker represents an upgrade for ME. Dirty secret that only Bucs fans know, Brady wasn’t good last year.

    The one major worry I have with him being gone is the play of line which was terrible. The Saints wonderful line was terrible as soon as Jamies stepped in and Brees stepped out.
    Makes me think that the Hall of Fame quarterbacks make the line good.