BSPN Spreadsheeter Has Bucs Projections

September 4th, 2023

Tired of the folks outside the Tampa Bay area shatting on the Bucs? It’s starting to get old for Joe too. At least we have a game to focus on in a few hours when Bucs coach Todd Bowles is expected to speak.

This guy explains why he has more faith the Bucs are going college quarterback-hunting than he has faith in the Bucs making the playoffs. Mike Clay of BSPN, a spreadsheeter, broke down in detail why he thinks the Bucs will get dragged down by the second-worst offense in the league.

First, Clay’s numbers-crunching says the Bucs will have the second-worst season point total in the NFL this fall — with only Washington worse by one point.

Clay thinks the Bucs will score 311 points on offense. Offensively last season, the Bucs scored 313 for an average of 18.4 points a game. The 311 points Clay expects from the Bucs works out to a hair less per game, 18.29.

And what do his numbers tell him is the reason for a stagnant offense? You guessed it, Baker Mayfield.

Tampa Bay’s defense is still very good, but beyond wide receiver, the post-Tom Brady offense has potential issues all over the board. The most notable, of course, is a quarterback position that will be manned by Mayfield.

Clay has each position group on every team ranked. He has the Bucs’ quarterbacks and running backs room both at No. 31. Only Desmond Ridder of the Dixie Chicks is ranked lower, and at running back only the Jonathan Taylor-less Colts are lower.

Clay also has Bucs tight ends at No. 28 and offensive line at No. 29. How you can have an offensive line with Tristan Wirfs rated that badly, well, Joe can’t figure that out. Unless Clay believes the rest of the line is that p!ss poor.

Interestingly, Clay has every Bucs defensive position group ranked in the teens. Joe thinks the Bucs secondary could be special but Clay and his numbers do not. He has Bucs corners and safeties rated No. 16 and 17, respectively.

36 Responses to “BSPN Spreadsheeter Has Bucs Projections”

  1. Chris@Apple Roof Cleaning Tampa Says:

    Buc Bashing seems to be the new sport.
    I think we are going to surprise some teams this year

  2. Lukrazs Says:

    Bashing is so widespread and over the top that we’re going to surprise people by default.

    Anyway, excited for the game. Any expectation shaping for this season will depend on how our offense will performs against the Vikings. Before that any expectation shaping is a crapshoot.

  3. Tim Says:

    Buc bashing has been a thing since their inception.

  4. HC Grover Says:

    Who am I to argue with the Pros. Oh wait I agree. Ready for the Bowles Mayfield Snafu Season.

  5. Infomeplease Says:

    Seeing is believing…only 6 says away!

  6. Obvious Says:

    “Buc bashing has been a thing since inception” Amen..

    “Any expectation shaping is a crapshoot” Amen…

    “This website is a pinball machine” Amen…

    “Bowles / Mayfield snafu” Amen…

  7. Defense Rules Says:

    Gee for a couple articles there I thought we were actually talking football instead of betting. My bad.

  8. ATLBuc Says:

    Lazy reporting by this guy. Apparently, he took last year’s numbers and then looked at the additions that were made at those position groups to reach his findings. But how do you factor in a Trey Palmer or a YaYa or Kancey or a slimmer and faster Mike Evans if you have not put eyes on the team? All of these talking heads do the same thing every year. When their predictions of doom fall through they jump on the team’s bandwagon.

  9. Brandon Says:

    Comeback Player of the Year… Baker Mayfield.

    The idiots writing the Bucs off will spout “Nobody saw it coming”… no. Media was so hellbent on lazy analysis that they wrote off a team with a top 5 defense and Pro Bowlers at many of the most important positions on offense… two WRs and a LT. This team will score close to a touchdown more per game. They have talent on O… more talent than last year on both sides of the ball.

  10. Joe in Michigan Says:

    Agreed, Brandon. Habitual Complainer Grover will have to come back under a different name.

  11. BigBucsNoWhammy Says:

    Check ya sheets!
    I checked my sheet, and I have some of the same rankings for the Bucs too.
    Losing to the Vikings means they have to beat the Bears in the 2nd week.
    After that can they beat the Lions, Falcons, Texans?
    All these sheets, I’m checking to see which teams they can beat.
    What about the stinking slimy Saints this year?
    I need a drink thinking about this…
    Maybe, just maybe, the Bucs see all the bashings and use it as motivation to be competitive this year.
    Are you ready for some football? Hells ya!

  12. Glass Half Full Guy Says:

    Predictions are like azzholes. Everybody has one…you know the rest.

    The ones making the predictions? Ditto.

  13. ghost Says:

    “we are who they thought we were!”

  14. Derobbins Says:

    Lol Brandon. More talent on offense than last year?


  15. Pewter Power Says:

    Sure doing math without the formula sure that always works out. You have no idea what our offense will look like

    I crunched some numbers of my own fella. Our offense was horrible last year but we scored 313. Your projecting us to score less?

  16. Obvious Says:

    .Why is it that teams continue to give a shot to Mayfield? What is it that I can’t figure out?

    His college days? The “one decent season” he had 4 years ago? Is he just so handsome to some fans that they dream of a poster of him on the wall but CAN’T continue to justify that poster on the wall anymore and are desperately hoping for a reason to place a new one of him in his robe on the wall of SHAME…?

    You know, Last year I BANGED THE DRUMS with a few others (PRE SEASON) to fix the O line…. Banged a Gong to bring back SUH… And now I’m looking around to find an “Old Friend” because I need to Bang my Bong!

    I BEGGED. I PLEADED… I RAISED HE!! BECAUSE I knew if we DIDN’T demand as an entire fan base, “BETTER” then we would AS I SCREAMED along with a Very Few Others, (Defense Rules) sticks out as another desperately trying to rally support from the fan base and this Organization to take Very Seriously the “LIKELYHOOD” that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and EVERY SINGLE, EVERY SINGLE FAN would be THROWN BACK INTO COMPLETE AND UTTER Obscurity, without action taken, NOW!

    A GROSS football fan existence and FACT that “the LOSINGEST TEAM IN ALL OF SPORTS HISTORY WOULD BE RIGHT BACK IN HE!! IF, IF, IF this Organization didn’t wake up and WAKE UP NOW!


    Man we were on the mountain top YODELING… Everybody was so Punch Drunk that You All thought it would last forever…

    I’ve been Raising HE!! Ever since! Like I KEEP SAYING! I’ve had a taste of the “Good Life” and I DON’T EVER WANT TO GO BACK! I’M WILLING TO FIGHT OVER IT DAY IN AND DAY OUT!

    I DEMAND A Franchise and DARE I SAY, a DYNASTY LEVEL Quarterback!


    All this Pathetic infighting over table straps shows CLEARLY that fans “in general” have No Business in playing the GM game even on their couches.

    We WILL NEVER have Respect much less a chance at GLORY with the “thrift store” exceptence and attitude. And YES, I know why THANK YOU VERY MUCH…
    The FACT that I have to explain that last sentence SAYS IT ALL!

    It “LOOK LIKE” you guys have “finally SOBERED UP” And NOW THAT YOU HAVE, maybe IT’S TIME that you ALL “GET BEHIND” a REAL QB going forward!

    Trask “WAS” the Best Chance we had but OF COURSE WE NEED TO SAVE TOAD’S JOB. Instead of Millions of FANS Utter Sunday Ecstasy. BUCCANEERS FANS THAT IS! And, I’M NOT SAYING TRASK IS AN ELITE QB… I wouldn’t have a CLUE since they have ruined his career so far. I’d be DEMANDING an exit strategy from my “handler” if I were Trask! I would LOVE to find out IF HE COULD BE the Answer. O wait, I forgot. It’s WAY More important to save TOADS job than the Success and “WINNING FUTURE” of this team, of which Bowles has SHOWN NO ACTUAL ability of doing. WINNING!



  17. Duane Says:

    Yak – it’s all useless, pointless, zero value yak.

    I prefer to wait and let them play the games before making any judgements.

    By the way, these same professional yakkers had the Bucs in the NFC championship game and/or the Super Bowl the last two seasons, on account of Tom Brady. And we know how true their yakking proved to be.

    The yakkers also predicted that Jalen Hurts was the worst starting quarterback in the league at this point 1 year ago, and would certainly be yanked for the backup after the first month of the season, with the Eagles finishin no better than middle of the pack.

    Instead, Hurts placed second in the vote to multi-MPVPer Patrick Mahomes for MVP, and took his Eagles to the Super Bowl.

    So much for the credibility of the yakking class.

  18. Duane Says:

    Obvious – you need to chill, man. You’re just a fan, not a coach or GM or owner of the team. They make the decisions, and all you get to do is watch the result. Just like all other fans.

    If Mayfield fails quickly, he will probably be yanked for Trask who then may or may not succeed like Brock Purdy did last year for the 49ers. Or Mayfield may surprise a lot of people and thrive in this new Canales offense to which his skill set appears well suited.

    Just chill, and let’s see what happens.

    Life is like a box of chocolates – you never know what you’re getting until you unrwap the treats.

  19. Mike S Says:

    Mayfield is garbage. We’re doomed in 2023

  20. Oneilbuc Says:

    Obvious. I agree with everything you said bro !!! But we stuck with Baker Mayfield as the starter. He didn’t earn it in fact Kyle Trask was the better quarterback all training camp and preseason. But Baker Mayfield popularity is the only reason why he’s the starter. And I also believe that if the bucs would have known that Kyle Trask would play this good in training camp and preseason they would never snig Baker Mayfield. But again that’s more proof that the bucs neglected Trask when Brady was here. And now that narrative about Trask couldn’t beat out Blain Gabbert was a lie pushed by Joe . Imagine what kind of quarterback Trask would be if they would have given him a chance to practice with the starters his rookie year ? But the bucs spent 2 years protecting Brady’s insecurities by having a rookie quarterback behind him!!! Maybe that’s why Brady got BA thrown up stairs because BA was going to start transitioning to Kyle Trask!!

  21. SufferingSince76 Says:

    Oneilbuc, same old. Do you have anything else? Obvious, you need help before you have an aneurysm. It’s a game. Not life and death.

  22. Pewter Power Says:

    I’m not arguing we possibly won’t be a bad team but the worst or serving worse in the nfl? Our defense alone kept us in a lot of games.

    I hope they are low key tanking or good enough to earn a top 5 pick. The worst thing in the nfl is to be middle of the Pack, that’s no man land, you’d have to hit home runs on 2-3 draft picks for couple years to move up

  23. PSL Bob Says:

    Hey if we’re bad, everybody expected it. So, no harm. I’d rather have it this way than everyone expecting a good year and then the team tanks. Hard to be disappointed when you’re predicted to be in the gutter.

  24. Buc Fan in CO Says:

    If (and yes, it is not insignificant “IF”) the Bucs manage to find themselves on contention for the division title or a wild card spot, I very much look forward to all of the “NOBODY SAW THIS COMING!!!” takes from the national sports media.

  25. Buc Fan in CO Says:

    * (it is A not insignificant “IF”)


  26. Glass Half Full Guy Says:

    Another astute observation by Oneilbic from the nose bleed seats. Too bad he forgot his binoculars. Again.

    Poor mistreated Trask. Got no help from coaches, other QBs on the team, blah, blah, blah. Hey Oneil, we’re you at camp with them? In-season practices? In the QB room studying film with Brady, Gabbert and Trask? C’mon man. Backups don’t get 1st team reps on ANY team.

    As for Bowles choosing Mayfield as the better option to try to keep his job? Wouldn’t you opt for self-preservation? It’s not a team-first move (if that’s the case) but doesn’t it also mean that he feels Mayfield can win more games THIS season? Isn’t winning the goal?

    Bowles keeps his job with a winning record = he feels Mayfield can lead the team to a winning record = he keeps his job = Bucs have a winning record.

    A lot of “fans” want Bowles to fail (which means the Bucs lose A LOT) so we can get a new HC. Some say it’s inevitable anyway, so why prolong our agony? I for one want to watch the Bucs win now and in the future. Crazy, right?

    Brady sat behind Bledsoe, Rodgers behind Favre, Young behind Montana. Etc. Now Trask sits behind Mayfield. Not the biggest hurdle for a backup to overcome (by comparison, not a dig at BM) if he truly proves himself. We may see it this year or never. Let the games begin

  27. bucsfaninOregon Says:

    Note to Mr. Obvious:
    I would not feel comfortable if you were my neighbor. I’d hate to see your reaction if there was something significant happening. The Bucs’ season,which we all consider important enough to post here, is not it.

  28. ScottyMack Says:

    The way I see it is that Bucs fans cannot possibly be more disappointed in this year’s team than they were last year. I mean, these same “experts” had the Bucs finishing either #1 or #2 in the conference and most had them back in the Superbowl. That’s what WE expected!

    This year, the pundits are expecting the opposite and so are most fans. Anything better than that is a plus.

    Sit back, watch and see what happens. And, for heaven’s sake, stop whining about this year’s team and mythical moves the Bucs could have made with no money to do so (and please, enough about Kyle Trask’s upside ever being anything more than a career backup, if that).

  29. Pewter Power Says:

    Mike S

    I think you meant Trask is garbage. Nobody is game planning for Trask on the preseason. If you want to tank properly start Trask.

    I’m guessing Blaine Gabbert wanted too much money otherwise Trask should be backing him up again. For some reason they went with Baker. We’re about to find out why.

  30. Rod Munch Says:

    Well considering Mayfield has been the worst QB in football over the last two years, it seems optimistic to only have him at 31.

    At RB, it’s a matter of White proving himself, and I have no doubt he’ll do just that.

    Assuming other teams don’t just stack the line vs the run because they want Mayfield throwing the ball, and BM can’t get it done.

  31. Fred McNeil Says:

    How the heck does anybody come up with such a precise calculation for such a nebulous thing? Anybody with the slightest lick of common sense would say they’ll score about some fairly round number or some narrow, but nonspecific range. Like “about 300 points” or 300 to 350 range. Does he have Marty McFly’s almanac from Bast to the Future? Did he divide that angle of that dangle by the mass of the @ss? Einstein he is not.

  32. David Says:

    Joe says;
    “And what do his numbers tell him is the reason for a stagnant offense? You guessed it, Baker Mayfield.”

    Exactly Joe. That isn’t a guess. It is the fact Jack.

  33. Buckeyebuckchuck Says:

    It all depends on staying healthy. When you have this many drafted and UFA rookies on the roster thats common sense. Viewing Mayfield as the weak link is just bullcrap. Living in Ohio i get force fed a bunch of Browns/Bengals games. Fun fact, as a starter old boy has never lost to Jie Burrow. Also has never beat Mahomes.

  34. Thisisouryear!! Says:

    Either they’re wrong or we are. I’m glad it starts in less than a week. I’d love to see Evans sign and I think with are defense is going to be stout. I say we win 11 games. LFG!!!!

  35. Goodbuc'nlife Says:

    Arizona Cardinals anyone? Texans maybe? How about the Panthers? Sam Howell led Commando’s? What about the Belicheater’s? This is getting out of hand! Who cares what the “so-called” stat heads are conjuring up with their computers. Last I checked, people coach, people play, and people win or loose. That said, the people we have are more than capable. “If” we fail this year, there will be only a handful of culprits. One being the low hanging fruit in Mayfield. The other will be Bowles. I personally think Rashaad will be good. Our line will be serviceable, not great, but ok. All else, very good. There ARE way more teams with significant holes to fill than we do. I get it, QB is a concern but the games must be played. Brady was not the BUCS. Brady did not come to us because he wanted to be the entire team. He came because we actually had a team in place already. That team is largely still in tact just with some youth sprinkled in. I’m so tired of all the talking. Sunday can’t get here fast enough. Let’s F’ing go!!!!! Go Bucs!!!!!

  36. garro Says:

    Joe please repost this and send copies to all of your “spread sheet” stat geeks after we beat all of the “projections” by a mile.

    BTW Any real footbal stuff to post?

    Go Bucs!