Data Dumps On Baker Mayfield

May 23rd, 2023

Joe sure hopes Baker Mayfield has a great 2023 season. Not only would that mean the Bucs are a good team, but it would send the stats nerds scrambling like roaches that caught a flashlight beam.

Consider this gem from Larry Holder, the former Saints beat writer turned columnist and data guy for

“Every Baker Mayfield metric suggests his play is not starter-quality,” Holder wrote as part of a data deep dive on quarterbacks that was loaded with annoying acronyms.

“His passer rating did improve 12 points from his time with Carolina (74.4) to his time with the Rams (86.4) last season. And maybe an entire offseason with a team could benefit the 2018 No. 1 pick since Mayfield didn’t touch the field with the Panthers until training camp a year ago.”

Yes, the stats faithful largely think Mayfield is hot garbage and claim they will put Kyle Trask in the same Hefty bag if he can’t win the starting job from Mayfield this summer.

Joe won’t argue the data on Mayfield, but he also comes with many variables/excuses on his résumé.

It’s not like this guy was playing for well-run organizations before he landed in Los Angeles, where he did a solid job when thrown into the fire.

34 Responses to “Data Dumps On Baker Mayfield”

  1. HC Grover Says:

    Sadly he is no Brady. The 4th qtr comeback is history. Normal Bowles game plans lead to 10 points behind to start the 4th.

  2. Who Says Says Can't Say Says:

    I’m a big believer in data-based decisions, but you have to look at EVERYTHING not just one or two metrics.

    Mayfield’s case needs to account for being with two very dysfunctional teams. Rich Gannon bounced among several lousy teams, but when he got to Oakland became a league MVP.

  3. PSL Bob Says:

    “It’s not like this guy was playing for well-run organizations before he landed in Los Angeles..”

    And he will be in Tampa? Bowles hasn’t impressed so far. New OC Coordinator. O-line rebuild. He’s not exactly being placed into the driver’s seat of a well-oiled machine.

  4. Winky Says:

    If life didn’t change it wouldn’t be life.

    History, sure. But, new happens every moment.

    Go Bucs!!!

  5. BBQBUC Says:

    “if he [Trask] can’t win the starting job from Mayfield this summer”

    Since Mini Mayfield was signed you’ve thrown nothing but cold water on the notion of a competition between the two. So, which is it? Will there be a legitimate competition? Or is Bowles simply going with the veteran because his job is on the line?

  6. Steven007 Says:

    I would argue that as an organization, the team is well run. I don’t think Brady would have gone to a team he hadn’t adequately vetted in that regard just because they have a couple of good offensive players. As for coaching, though that’s part of the equation, I think it’s separate from determining whether or not an organization is well run. If we have a crap year and they get rid of the coach, I will maintain that. It’s a well run organization.

  7. Lt. Dan Says:

    Canales will take Baker’s game to new heights. Is he the second coming of Brady – of course not. Canales will shape the offense and weekly game plan to Mayfields strengths. Guarantee it.

  8. #99 the big fella Says:

    Joe , question you post a lot of articles about everyone being down on mayfield.. do you like Mayfields fit with the bucs or no ?

  9. Brandon Says:

    HC Grover Says:
    May 23rd, 2023 at 10:47 am
    Sadly he is no Brady. The 4th qtr comeback is history. Normal Bowles game plans lead to 10 points behind to start the 4th.


    Yes, It’ll be so sad to see the Bucs not throw their first 10 passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, for the offensive line not have to protect for a QB that is so immobile that his release spot was literally the exact same spot for every throw., and for the QB not try to check the ball off immediately instead of going through his progressions. It will be sad that our offense has a shot at not being one of the worst in the league like last season.

  10. Smashsquatch Says:

    Just went back and watched Baker’s highlights from Oklahoma. So far, his success of the past hasn’t translated to the NFL. I forgot his story includes walking on with two teams. Winning is part of his DNA. Bringing him to Tampa was a shrewd move, with big upside. It’s an excellent low risk, high reward move by Licht. His hands were tied with cap constraints. If this team returns to the playoffs, a lot of careers will be vindicated, especially Licht, Bowles & Mayfield. They’re all looking for redemption.

  11. AnonymousBuc76 Says:

    Much love Lt. Dan…

    Hate to burst your bubble but Baker is nothing more than a rockstar backup…He’s had plenty time and opportunities to prove his worth in this league and here we are; 4 teams in less than 2 years later some people are still giving home way more credit than he deserves…

  12. eric Says:

    Lol, man Baker is Hot Garbage!

  13. A Says:

    I think if Baker is not significantly better than Trask – you cut him and play Trask. Nothing to be gained by playing an avg at best Baker, but love the move by the Bucs to see if he has anything left in the tank.

    Go Bucs!

  14. eric Says:

    But he got swag right, Baker please prove me wrong please, but I am not hopeful!


    My buddy, who is from Cleveland and a Browns observer, made these observations about Mayfield:

    “He throws interceptions when he’s pressured..”

    “He fumbles too many times on QB sneaks….”

  16. sasquatch Says:

    A Says:
    May 23rd, 2023 at 11:40 am

    I think if Baker is not significantly better than Trask – you cut him and play Trask.

    Cut him? You do realize that he is guaranteed 4 million this year, so why would you just let him go rather than keeping him around as a backup? That’s retarded. You cut him and then they’ll probably just have to spend more money to pay another backup.

    Some people just don’t get how rosters are managed. Oh yeah, you don’t like a player, just cut him! Jeezus…

  17. sasquatch Says:

    He’s still a young player. He’s been to the playoffs in a sh!tty organization… Who says we’ve even seen what he can actually do? I’m kind of excited to see what he can do in the new offense.

  18. Dooley Says:

    Most completed passes of 20 or more yards than any other QB in the NFL since 2020, not even a Baker Mayfield “fan” but that’s gotta speak for something. I’ll be the last one to don a cape for Mayfield, but to sports media types he gets talked about critically because he’s low hanging fruit.

  19. BBQBUC Says:


    “He throws interceptions when he’s pressured.”

    “He fumbles too many times on QB sneaks.”


    Both caused, at least in part, by his small size.

  20. Rand Says:

    Larry Holder was the Buc’s beat writer before he went to NOLA. It’s a shame how the opinion on Trask will be shaped negatively because Mayfield was brought in to be the starter regardless of what Bowles says.

  21. Iamabuc Says:

    I don’t know about all of you negative nellies;
    but I trust the process and I believe we’ll be alright. Just Go BUCS (if you really are a BUCS Fan). Go Baker!!

  22. Hodad Says:

    Watched GMF today, McCoy was the guest commentator. They put up pictures of the starting QBs in our division. For us it was Baker, already penciled in. Not even a mention that he would be competing with Trask, and would have to win the job. Nope, it was his. Than Gerry said Baker was his boy, and thought he’d have a good enough season for the Bucs to win the division. Not one mention of Trask by anybody. From the local pen, and mic club, to the national media there is no QB competition Baker is the starter, done deal. I will root for whoever our starting QB is, but I’ll go on record saying I hope it’s Trask. Would love to see all the experts, and sour Buc fans eat crow.

  23. Bojim Says:

    Still excited for the season.

  24. Dooley Says:

    GMC is also a Sooner alum/homer, so no way is he going to get asked about Mayfield on national tv and not big him up, but same I want whomever the team trusts the most after the next 60-90 days to be QB. Got no problem rooting for Trask or Mayfield as long as either or both earn it.

  25. Jeff’s grandpa Says:

    He is what his record says he is all the rest is excuses

  26. SlyPirate Says:

    The DBs and LBs are solid. Vea is solid.
    Defenses success/fail comes down to Kancey, Hall, JTS, and Shaq.

    The WRs and RB are solid. Jensen, Wirfs are solid.
    Offenses success comes down to OL and QB.

    The season hinges on six topics: Kancey, Hall, JTS, Shaq, OL, and QB.

    Let’s mix up the articles a little.
    How’s are Hall and JTS looking? What have they done to improve?
    How’s Shaq’s health?
    How’s Jensen’s health?
    What are the potential OL fits (what are the coaches saying)?
    What do the players think of Canales’ playbook?

  27. K_bassuka Says:

    Even a blind man can see that Maybefield is not that good and a bust as a #1 overall pick (should’ve been drafted in the 3rd or 4th round).

    Joe, just because the Rams though Maybefield was a better option at QB than their 4th and 5th string QB doesn’t make him a good QB. The fact that they chose to pass on him even though that Stafford’s future is unknown speaks volume to Maybefield’s talents or better yet, lack thereof.

  28. A Says:


    I didn’t say I didn’t like Baker – I just said I’d rather give Trask the reps if Baker is not significantly better. Baker could be his normal average self but Trask shits the bed and therefore is significantly better by default.

    Also, if Baker is not starting, he’ll ask to be traded or released, he did last year. Plus, you don’t need the distraction.

    Go Bucs!

  29. Letsbucinggo Says:

    Well run organization Bwahwahwahwah take away Bradys first two years in Tampa this is a rag tag organization.9

  30. Rand Says:

    Joe is not an investigative reporter. He’s more a cut and paste opinionist.

  31. Voice of Truth Says:

    Let’s all hope and pray Kyle just lights it up in camp and preseason

    Baker is gonna be just good enough to lose most games – very similar to another 1st overall pick we know well

    If Kyle isn’t the answer – we might only win 4 games

    Baker is a busted play waiting to happen

  32. Steven007 Says:

    Rand, it was Stephen Holder not Larry.

  33. sasquatch Says:

    Rand Says:
    May 23rd, 2023 at 12:49 pm

    Joe is not an investigative reporter. He’s more a cut and paste opinionist.

    Correct. JBF is an opinion, rumor, and speculation aggregator. Nothing very original here. It’s a way for Bucs-obsessed people (myself included) to waste time and get no value in return.

  34. Geno711 Says:

    A says.

    … you cut him and play Trask…

    I got to agree sasquatch, suggesting that Baker will be released seems such a non-likely event in the Buc world. Whether or not he got traded last year or asked to be released.

    He has more value on our team even if he is a reserve.