Computer Model Spooked By Jahmyr Gibbs

April 11th, 2023

Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs.

Joe is pretty much against drafting a running back in the first round. But, like anything, there are exceptions.

And yes, Bijan Robinson is an exception. But it does seem doubtful the star Longhorn back will fall to No. 19.

Joe’s been on the bandwagon of trading up in the second round (or trading down in the first round) to perhaps grabbing Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs, who is lightning fast. And boy, the Bucs need speed.

Nathan Forest of Football Outsiders notes draft analysts and #DraftMedia largely believe Gibbs is the second-best running back in the draft. But hold up! Football Outsiders thinks Gibbs is the No. 3 back in this month’s draft. Who’s No. 2? DeWayne McBride of UAB.

There’s more: A computer model crafted by the gang at Football Outsiders isn’t blown away by Gibbs. This program spits out that Gibbs is a middle-of-the-draft kind of back.

Why the mediocre projection? BackCAST is skeptical of Gibbs’ college production. We expect top running back prospects to dominate their backfields, and Gibbs’ share of his teams’ carries is only very slightly above the average drafted running back. At Georgia Tech, Gibbs ceded carries to fellow runners Jordan Mason and Dontae Smith; at Alabama, he split duties with Chase McClellan. Gibbs’ career yards per attempt was also just so-so, but it is worth noting that his yards per attempt improved significantly after he transferred to Alabama.

The bright side here? This same model projects Gibbs to have a much bigger impact in the passing game.

Gibbs does have very good potential as a receiver. Approximately one-third of Gibbs’ production was in the passing game, and of all the running back prospects in this year’s draft, BackCAST rates Gibbs as the most likely to have his production skew more heavily towards receiving yards than rushing yards.

So let Joe get this straight: This computer model is eh on Gibbs as a runner but believes he can be a player in the passing game?

Isn’t that basically saying Gibbs is a quicker clone of Rachaad White?


33 Responses to “Computer Model Spooked By Jahmyr Gibbs”

  1. Chris@Apple Roof Cleaning Tampa Says:

    BiJan Robinson might fall because of slow 40 yard dash times

  2. Statistically Insignificant Reader Says:

    Ah Yes, the highlight reel. Makes prospects look all world.
    Plenty of other needs on the Bucs roster BUT a player of Bijan Robinson’s caliber would hate to pass up if he lands into the Bucs lap in the draft. Pair him with w White and watch the speed kill. Awsome tandem. Would also be affordable for a few years to come. Let your imagination run wild with all the exceptional running backs the Bucs passed on over the years. If he falls into our lap and is not taken we can still follow as he runs wild as we play the what if game for years.

  3. Joe in Michigan Says:

    Chris@Apple Roof Cleaning Tampa Says:
    April 11th, 2023 at 9:08 am
    BiJan Robinson might fall because of slow 40 yard dash times
    He ran a 4.46, which is good.

  4. ATLBucsFan Says:

    He’s not going to get holes like that in the NFL. Middle LBs will eat him up.

  5. gotbbucs Says:

    Was that meant to be a joke? 4.46 is slow?

  6. Goatfarmer Says:

    No to this newer version of Joleen Dardung.

  7. Statguy Says:

    The exact same 40 as LaDanian Tomlinson, who he plays exactly like

  8. Statguy Says:

    B Robinson that is..

  9. Jeebs the Honey Bear Says:

    He mostly ran through MASSIVE holes at Alabama. Unless you’re Derrick Henry, who can make his own holes and massively move the pile, you will be restricted by the ability of the O line and the ability of the play caller. My hope is that Canales will utilize this O line to its strengths and call run plays more strategically (no more first down HB dives over and over, aka the Leftwich Special). This will make it easier for the O line to make holes, and will allow Rachaad White an opportunity to shine. Over and over again it has proven mostly worthless to draft a RB in the first 2 rounds. I would wait until round 4 minimum.

  10. Jack Clark Says:

    Not impressed seeing a college running back run through holes large enough to fit a wide-body aircraft through

  11. Jack Clark Says:

    Jack Clark Says:
    April 11th, 2023 at 10:09 am
    Not impressed seeing a college running back run through holes large enough to fit a wide-body aircraft through

    ^^^^ Especially when we don’t have an offensive line good enough to create them for running backs

  12. SufferingSince76 Says:

    As has been mentioned, he has to have a hole to run through. O-line first.

  13. TampaBayBucsFanSince1976 Says:

    Oline please , early and often

  14. UKBuccaneer Says:

    Best player available with every pick. Drafting for perceived need leads to reaching.

  15. Cobraboy Says:

    I am skeptical of RBs who played behind monster OLs.

  16. Beej Says:

    Backs we have probably be serviceable if there were HOLES they could run thru

  17. Dooley Says:

    Really not interested in taking an RB on day 1, but some of the moves Licht has made this offseason probably frees up a draft selection on day 2 or 3 to add to the collective of White, Edmonds, Vaughn, and Laird.

  18. David Says:

    I still think they need OL and DL in the first two rounds followed by DB. They also need RB and WR… Fast and quick ones. If they take one of them in the first couple rounds, I wouldn’t be against it, but it would not be my major priority.

  19. HC Grover Says:

    Where’s the Beef? Draft linemen.

  20. Cobraboy Says:

    Big. Uglies.

    OL & DL determine the outcome of football games.

    The rest just sells tix to bandwagon casuals.

  21. Mikey Says:

    [What distorted photo? — Joe]

  22. Mikey Says:

    You know. Nobody buys your BS.

  23. Allbuccedup Says:

    Definitely trade down get an extra pick the Chiefs, Bills and Cowboys are rumored to be possibly wanting move up. Draft best offensive tackle available then Gibbs if hes there at 50. Sounds like a plan to me Joe.

  24. HomerSimpsonRocks Says:

    I’d rather have Roschon Johnson. Not impressed by Gibbs. He’s got speed lijw Scotty Miller has speed. Isn’t very shifty and goes down pretty easily.

  25. sasquatch Says:

    If we don’t come out of round 1 and 2 with an OT and an Edge rusher, I’ll be a little surprised. A speedy playmaker is needed, but we gotta fortify the trenches. I’d trade Devin White to get another pick to add an explosive weapon.

  26. RBUC Says:

    Somebody tell me what ranked team Texas played in 2022 where B. Robinson had a dominant performance leading his team to victory?? I watched the TCU match up and Texas abandoned the run game not being able to pickup a 1st down on 3rd and 1!!! I TOTALLY DISAGREE WITH M9ST COMMENTS ABOUT GIBBS THOU!! Let me go on record right now saying Gibbs will effect his new team’s offense in a positive way RIGHT OUT THE GATE more so than Robinson will! Gibbs is a more explosive HYBRID McCaffrey/Kamara playmaker(not just a RB) His combination of vision, start-stop-change direction while going from 0 to FULL SPEED is off the charts ELITE! No matter where you line him up at IF he makes the 1st defender miss HE instantly applies pressure on your WHOLE defense. He can routinely be on the field while another RB( Raachard White) is at the same time lined up in a way the play could be pass or run. Yes the Bucs need to improve the O-line the reality is to TRULY fix it’s gonna be a process of multiple moves to do so including adding a TE or 2. I just think there are a handful of rare players that they’re game changers few teams possess and most of the time those rare players don’t play for the Bucs(not in their prime anyway)!! If Canales is any good I wonder what he could do with such a player?? BOTTOM LINE I DOUBT HE GETS PAST THE SAINTS AT #29

  27. SlyPirate Says:

    I really like UCLA’s Charbonnet. Johnathan Stewart clone. He might be available R4.

    I still don’t think RB is a priority.

  28. SB~LV Says:

    Bucs certainly need EXPLOSIVE players on offense, all you need to know is what the 2022 Playoff teams had and how lacking the Bucs are in the explosive play capability

  29. Steven007 Says:

    Sly, I’m also a Charbonnet fan. He’s my favorite running back in this draft, after Robinson.

  30. Rod Munch Says:

    The issue I had with Gibbs, watching his highlights, is that he’s running through huge holes on seemingly every play. His speed jumps off the screen, and if he can catch, he could do some real damage there as a change of pace back.

    As for Bijan, he looks like he’ll be a very good runner, but to my eye he doesn’t look like someone that is truly special, and the only way I’d take a RB in the first round is if I thought they were the next Barry Sanders, and he’s not that. Also his ‘power’ runs in college, I don’t know if that comes through at the NFL level. Watching his tape I just assumed he was a lot bigger than he really is, since, in reality, he’s smaller than White (and not as quick). Again, I think Bijan will do well in the NFL, but I also think White is going to be a star if they just give him the ball and do more than run up the middle on every first down into 8-man boxes. If you had Bijan in the Bucs offense last year, he’d have the exact same stats as White.

  31. Goatfarmer Says:

    Big and ugly. Ugly and big. Big ugly and fast. Fast ugly and big. And all combinations of the preceding, for the TRENCHES.

  32. Power of Pewter Says:

    Day1 – OT. Day 2 – DL and Edge. Day 3 – depth at WR, CB, S, ILB, and a #3 QB.

  33. unbelievable Says:

    Sounds more like a Charles Sims clone based on that passing description