“Can’t Miss”

April 24th, 2023

Texas RB Bijan Robinson.

Man, if this isn’t a window into the future, Joe doesn’t know what is.

NextGen Stats, the NFL model of computer-generated data from sensors implanted in players’ equipment, has developed a formula using analytics to predict a draft prospect’s success.

In the past three years, players NextGen Stats labeled “can’t miss” have almost all been solid extra-base hits if not home runs.

Go ahead and look at the list. Pretty damn good batting average. Better than the best general manager’s batting average (Hall of Fame general manager Bill Polian said the very best general managers bat .560 on draft picks).

Atop this year’s “Can’t Miss” list, per Mike Band of NFL.com, is a guy some think may slide to the Bucs. And that would be Texas running back Bijan Robinson.

For the second year in a row, a running back tops our list of prospects based on the Next Gen Stats draft score. Although this may seem counterintuitive in light of prevailing analytical trends, selecting Bijan Robinson significantly increases a team’s chances of adding a valuable contributor to the roster. There may not be a more complete prospect in this year’s draft class, relative to position, than this Texas product. Boasting an exceptional combination of size, speed, elusiveness, power, production and accolades, Robinson embodies the qualities of an elite NFL running back. His remarkable skill set challenges the prevailing wisdom that often downplays the importance of running backs in today’s game.

In an NFL environment where versatile workhorse backs are increasingly scarce, Robinson’s three-down abilities set him apart as a distinct outlier. The 2022 Doak Walker Award winner proved his capacity to carry the load during his time in Austin, averaging more than 22 touches per game in consecutive seasons. Just three NFL players averaged 22-plus touches per game in 2022: Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley.

Robinson’s unparalleled elusiveness led to an astounding 104 missed tackles last season.

Various draftniks believe Robinson won’t get past the Eagles at No. 10. We will see.

Robinson played slot receiver at Texas. He can go deep for a pass and is an excellent receiver.

Ordinarily, Joe would not draft a running back in the first round unless he is the last piece to an offense’s puzzle. The Bucs have a lot of missing puzzle pieces on offense.

However, since new Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales wants to run the ball, and he took over the league’s worst running attack that lost a key veteran in Playoff Lenny, perhaps Robinson is the right choice?

FanDuelTV and former NFL Network vixen Kay Adams said if the Bucs start Baker Mayfield, they absolutely need a guy like Robinson because you cannot allow Mayfield to toss the ball 30 times a game. Not if you want to win ballgames.

Given his versatility, Joe guesses Canales would be drooling to work with Robinson.

With NextGen Stats’ strong record of citing “Can’t Miss” prospects, Joe thinks Robinson is even more valuable.

Remember: Robinson had only had two visits to NFL team facilities this past month. One was in Tampa.

27 Responses to ““Can’t Miss””

  1. David Says:

    No thanks.
    Any running back in the first round is a wasted pick. I don’t care how good he is. What RB lead his team to a Super Bowl in the last decade? What Super Bowl team in the last 20 years drafted running back in the first round that they absolutely would not have gotten to the Super Bowl without?
    You can argue argue MAYBE a couple, but it’s a weak argument.

    It is a passing league.
    You’re better off with 2-3 backs and stacking your O & D line.

    If this is Bowles plan, bringing a run, heavy, O C, and draft are running back in the first round, then the Buccaneers are doomed to be average at best for the next decade, or at least until they fire the coach

  2. Pewter Power Says:

    Maybe we have a lot of missing peices maybe not. It’s weird people say a player needed to go somewhere else for a fresh start but have a new coordinator and new scheme is different. Maybe the new scheme fits out o lines skill set and the play a lot better. If they plan or being a heavy run team then a home run hitter at running back makes complete sense

  3. Esteban85 Says:

    Would be much better than drafting another Logan Hall or Tryon-Shoyinka

  4. Rand Says:

    Would be sweet but improbable though. We need OT badly unless we resign D. Smith as depth, but even then, we are in need for a pass rush too. If by #19 there are no more considered first round OT or DE talent left, and Robinson is there, don’t hesitate and take him.

  5. Goatfarmer Says:

    Hmmmm. Maybe. Don’t trade up for him, though.

  6. Rand Says:

    Also, like I have been saying for a couple months now, we should offer QB A.J.McCarron a contract. He would be perfect competition for Traskfield.

  7. Rand Says:

    At least a better prospect than Hooker.

  8. Fansince76 Says:

    Definitely they take him if the is there but unfortunately there is no way he will last to 19.

  9. Jon Grudin Says:

    Ok if Licht and his scouts think he is a generational talent and he’s there at 19 but to trade up is a huge risk.

  10. PA Buc Fan Says:

    I again have been stating for months he is the guy this franchise desperately needs. Unfortunately with all the hype he is getting not a chance we land him at 19. He will be gone before that. Have been seeing Lions in addition to the mentioned Eagles as drafting him early come Thursday. Such ashame cause he would be been a game changer for this offense that won’t have a qb even if they draft one. I will be sick if they waste their 1st round pick on a bum qb like Levis Richardson or Hooker. None will change this franchise.

  11. Chris@Apple Roof Cleaning Tampa Says:

    His 40 time was quite average at 4.6

  12. Shane247 Says:

    Bijan would have a huge impact on this team. Anyone who thinks this team is poised to win it all this year is diluted. If Bijan is there you take him! This will open up the offense, take pressure off Evans, Godwin, Mayfield & the O-line. O-line.

  13. Obvious Says:

    Joe, I appreciate you trying to push for Robinson but HE’S NOT GOING TO BE THERE AT 19!
    He’s “TOP FLITE” and we’re in the Jokers Seat at 19. NO WAY HE’S THERE!

  14. Onetrickpony Says:

    I wonder what Alstott is up to these days?

  15. Lakeland Steve Says:

    He won’t be there at 19. If they want him that bad they better move up and get him.


    Package #19 and Devin white (since he wants to play for the eagles) and trade up to 10. Pipe dream, I know.

  17. Fred McNeil Says:

    A lot of JBFers seem to love that Archane kid.
    He’s smallish, but very fast. I like what I hear about the kid too. He might be available in the third.

  18. Fred McNeil Says:

    We can’t afford to part with White this season.

  19. D-Rok Says:

    Great article – I was not aware of NexGen’s “Can’t Miss” list until now. What an impressive list!

    I’d like to have Robinson on our team and feel he would make an impact, but drafting him at 19 is too high for this team based on our other more pressing needs.

    Using our pick at 19 should yield an elite player, theoretically. Tackle and pass-rusher are our greatest need and also the most important to get studs.

    I’d prefer us take a quality OT in 1st round, then EDGE, then CB, then TE or OG, then perhaps RB. Just please do NOT use the draft to find a long-snapper, please, Mr. Licht.

    Luckily, we don’t have long to wait to see what the draft yields. Just a few more days and we’ll have some answers, fellow JBF fans!!!!

  20. Goatfarmer Says:

    Let’s ask Mark Dumfuknik what to do. Just kidding. I’m still laughing about what that boober listed as his draft priorities for the Bucs.

  21. Who Says Says Can't Say Says:

    This makes football about as exciting as banking.

  22. Oxycondoms Says:

    For people who think he will be a waisted high pick i guess you are hoping the falcons or saints draft him

  23. Bucs Guy Says:

    OT and Edge/DE.

  24. Capt.Tim Says:

    Cadillac Williams was “Cant miss”
    Drafted alot higher.
    Knee injury.
    Knee injury.
    Career over.

    Running backs have short careers, frequently hurt.
    Nah. Besides- our line is still gonna suck this year. Jim Brown wouldnt be able to gain yardage.

    Great line? An average back looks great
    Crappy line? You mean like last year?
    Made the greatest QB in NFL history look bad. Made our good RBs worse rushing team in the league.

    Anybody catching on yet?
    Go ahead. Draft Robinson. Everyone will call him a bust by week 6
    We wont get a decent LT drafting 19th, but we could get a fantastic Right Tackle or guard.
    Then, Suddenly!!, our backs will have mysteriously improved!

    Or, draft Robinson. Trade for Mahommes. Bring Back Brady. Sign Barkley
    We’ll still suck.

    Our lines are bad. Teams with bad lunes are bad teams. I dint care who your skill players are. It doesnt matter.

    Draft a RT, Guard, or an edge rusher.
    We’ll actually get better

  25. #99 the Big fella Says:

    Let anyone in our division draft him other than the bucs, then all the crying will be really bad..

  26. Resilient Says:

    Bucs could create a very unique and versatile offense with Rachaad & Bijon starting together and rotating them in the slot and backfield in multiple offensive sets.

  27. Ed Says:

    If he is the second coming of Barry Sanders or Eric Dickerson another team with a top 10 pick will grab him. Nothing seems more remote than a player with that level of talent dropping to 19.

    If you want to see this “dream running back”, you’ll have to tune in an out of town game because thats where he’ll be playing.