Study: Top-Shelf Veteran QB A Quicker Road To Super Bowl

March 31st, 2023

Next veteran QB to find glory?

The NFL is a quarterback league. Without one, you are just p!ssing in the wind.

(Joe knows these facts annoy old high school players from the 1960s who played in wishbone offenses under coaches that served in the Marines on Tarawa — and preached no player is more worthy than any other. Well, welcome to the 21st century.)

However, a deep dive by handicapper turned stathead Warren Sharp has found that in recent years, you need someone else’s quarterback to win the ultimate prize. Teams that pry a star quarterback away from the team that drafted him have far more success chasing a Super Bowl than teams with quarterbacks they drafted in the first round.

A few things Sharp discovered:

* Only five quarterbacks have won a Super Bowl since 2014 (Pat Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, Nick Foles and Peyton Manning). Brady, Manning and Stafford won Super Bowls with their second teams. Foles won his ring on his second stint with the Eagles.

* There have been 38 quarterbacks since 2011 who have been drafted in the first round. Those 38 quarterbacks guided their teams to the playoffs 19.2 percent of the time.

* Of those 38 quarterbacks, only six have led their teams to at least a conference championship. Only one has won a Super Bowl (Mahomes).

* The record of those 38 quarterbacks? 1034-1035-7.

* Of those 38 quarterbacks, only 11 got a second contract with his original team.

Now Sharp made it clear he is not advocating teams pass on drafting quarterbacks in the first round. But there is strong evidence that if a team pulls a Bucs — build the roster and then pounces on a top-shelf veteran quarterback who wants to leave his original team — it can win.

That, however, is leaving a whole lot to chance.

Of course, this approach goes against the NFL’s business model. Drafting a quarterback in the first round and developing him successfully is a massive moneymaker for teams that pull it off

Being relevant and popular for a decade or two brings in untold millions of dollars. Relevance = revenue. For example, before Tom Brady got to Tampa, the Bucs were a bit more than a curiosity with Jameis Winston because they were entertaining.

Since Brady retired, the Bucs are a total afterthought in the NFL world. Less attention = less revenue.

Always remember the NFL is a business.

39 Responses to “Study: Top-Shelf Veteran QB A Quicker Road To Super Bowl”

  1. BFFL Says:

    So you’re saying Mayfield has a chance bc brady and manning did it?

  2. Fansince76 Says:

    QB is a complete unknown for Bucs until like next November.
    We should know by then if Mayfield or Trask are looking capable going forward.

  3. Joe Swanson Says:

    Somehow I don’t believe Mayfield is in that class and even if he was we didn’t improve our team this year. Sad but true Bowles wil get a bye on this year.

  4. ChiBuc Says:

    I believe Warren, and you for that matter, make a better case for building a well balanced cap friendly TEAM through the draft and smart FA acquisitions wins Superbowls. The reasoning being that when an opportunity arises to improve your team with a known commodity who compliments and improves your TEAM, you can afford it.

  5. Bojim Says:

    I want Trask to have a fair shot buy Mayfield will start anyway and I’m kool with that. Think he’ll find success with us and we with him. I’m ready for some football. Go Bucs.

  6. Just Leave Trask Alone Says:


    Bucs won’t win 6 games with Mayfield. He’s a bum.

  7. Topdoggie Says:

    Brady makes thise stats have a higher degree of error. He sucked up half the AFC Superbowl stats for two decades. Without him there would have been a lot more AFC qbs in the mix.

  8. Stormy Says:

    Interesting analysis for the ‘we need to develop our own qb’ obsessed folks.

    It’s pretty obvious you do not. And it seems the quicker path to glory is to build a solid ‘team’ and then find a QB to seal the deal. The Bucs have now done this twice.

    I don’t give a damn whether the Bucs win their next Superbowl with a homegrown QB or a mercenary.

  9. Chris@Apple Roof Cleaning Tampa Says:

    Signing Baker IMHO was the best thing we could have done.’

  10. AnonymousBuc76 Says:


    When did Baker Mayfield become top shelf geeze…
    Mentioning his name along with guys like Brady and Manning is just flat out criminal…

  11. Jeff’s grandpa Says:

    And 4 with trask

  12. Nicholas Carlson Says:

    More reason for teams to go get Lamar rather than rolling the dice on a first round QB — a losing bet usually

  13. Craig Says:

    Pointless drivel for a slow day.

    Most of the “top-shelf” QBs are retired and the others aren’t going anywhere. The only way to get a “top-shelf” QB is to draft a QB and build him into being top-shelf.

    It looked like that was what the Bucs wanted to do with Trask. Now it looks like they forgot to give him any coaching. Seems almost as wasteful as drafting a 1st round QB.

    That might change if Trevor Lawrence wins to big one this season. He looked like another wasted talent, but a new coach resuscitated his career, maybe that can happen here too.

    Mayfly is too old to learn any new tricks.

  14. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    Wallowing in irrelevancy………it’s a Bucs life.

  15. Goatfarmer Says:

    This is good research, and speaks to the point of the crapshoot that is the draft.

    Also entertaining, now we have more posters certain that Trask got no coaching and more of this “unfair treatment” nonsense. So, all that spew such twaddle, you were there every day for the two years of Trask being in training camp and at practice, eh? Because that’s genius. Take your second round draft pick and intentionally bury him, intentionally set him up for utter and complete failure. Nothing better says “give ourselves the best chance to win.”

    I don’t like Bloweszo either, but even I don’t think he’s trying to lose on purpose and lose his job intentionally.

  16. Lt. Dan Says:

    I immediately thought of Jaymiss going to the Saints after leaving the Bucs…that didn’t quite fit into Warren’s model. That being said, I’m cool with the Bucs getting Baker. There really wasn’t much available in free agency and we pick 19th.

  17. Joe in Michigan Says:

    Just Leave Trask Alone Says:
    March 31st, 2023 at 9:08 am

    Bucs won’t win 6 games with Mayfield. He’s a bum.
    To put your post in context, the guy you call a “bum” has started many games in the NFL. Your guy has only been 3rd string, or the backup to the backup.

  18. Goatfarmer Says:

    Nothing screams objectivity and credibility like someone with their favorite player’s name in their handle.

  19. Defense Rules Says:

    Nicolas Carlson … ‘ More reason for teams to go get Lamar rather than rolling the dice on a first round QB — a losing bet usually’.

    If Lamar couldn’t win a Super Bowl with the Ravens, why should we believe that he could win one with the Bucs? Ravens have had a better team over the last decade than the Bucs.

  20. Goatfarmer Says:

    No one will pay Lamar what he is demanding, and he seems too arrogant or proud or stupid to realize that. Invariably if someone were that foolish, Lamar would come in and remind everyone of DeShaun Watson in Cleveland, minus the fetish for rub&tug.

  21. Defense Rules Says:

    BTW Nicholas, just looked up Lamar’s record in the playoffs. He’s 1-4 lifetime. That doesn’t scream ‘Pay me $40 mil and I’ll play for you’ in my mind.

  22. gp Says:

    I appreciated the viewpoint.
    I’d like to point out though, that there’s a whole lot of QB’s who have signed their second contract with a new team, and never even sniffed the super bowl. There’s always a different angle to view something from.

  23. Alanbucsfan Says:

    Maybe Lamar just doesn’t like the city of Baltimore and who could blame him..
    NFL teams are making $500 million revenue/year – build the team and then entice a great QB- if Trask or Mayfield work out, all the better.

  24. Mike Johnson Says:

    many here are concerned with Trask being the starter. Who cares? There are 17 games in the season. And most QB’s go down at some point. Trask will get his shot and more. He needs to be ready to perform. Thats all that counts. Performance and results. If you look at Bakers results, He is an up and down QB.
    I bet Trask gets his shot very early on in the season. I just don’t think he starts though.

  25. Greg Says:

    Top shelf??? LMFAO!!!!!!

    Come on Joe its one thing to constantly throw shade on Trask before hes even had a chance. Its another thing to talk about Winston like he was a hall of famer before he threw his first pass/INT. But now Mayfield who has already failed at 3 teams is top shelf????

    Come on man!

  26. Joe Says:

    Can someone point out where Joe mentioned Mayfield in the story?

  27. Rod Munch Says:

    All those stats tell me is that you want an older veteran QB, unless you hit the lottery on a draft pick.

    Baker doesn’t fit either category.

    See, we should have done what Bowles really wanted to do and get Joe Flacco.

  28. Rod Munch Says:

    Joe Says:
    March 31st, 2023 at 12:35 pm
    Can someone point out where Joe mentioned Mayfield in the story?


    Um… the picture of Mayfield, with the caption, ‘Next veteran QB to find glory?’

  29. Rand Says:

    Duh ..Mayfield’s picture is plastered over the article as a point of reference

  30. LakelandSteve Says:

    In the Bucs entire history how many QB’s drafted in the 1’st round won a Super Bowl with the Bucs? We all know that answer is none. In the two Super Bowls we won who were the QB’s. The first one Brad Johnson was not considered a top flight quarterback. We won with great defense and a balanced efficient offense. The 2’nd QB was of course the greatest QB ever and the football Gods had pity on poor old Tampa Bay and we were blessed with his presence for 3 years. Both Super Bowl QB’s played on other teams their entire career before joining the Bucs and winning the Super Bowl. If anything, this tells us all the genius GM’s in this league don’t know their history and continue to chase lightening in a bottle by drafting guys in the first round as QB who ultimately all fail except one. I think Jason Licht knows if he puts all the pieces together we can possibly pick up a QB from another team and do it again.

  31. HC Grover Says:

    With Bowles running the 23 Skidoo season he has plenty time.

  32. JimbobBucsFan Says:

    In the 2017 NFL Draft the quarterbacks taken were Mitchell Trubisky (2nd), Patrick Mahomes (10th) and Deshaun Watson (12). What does this say to you? Tanking for “________” is a losing gambit for any NFL franchise most of the time.

  33. Defense Rules Says:

    Gp … ‘ There’s always a different angle to view something from.’

    Totally agree. The 2017 draft was a great example IMO. Mahomes was drafted later than Trubusky but he was drafted into the perfect situation FOR HIM. Andy Reid is a great coach IMO and has built a great offense to complement Mahomes’ skillset. Trubisky (and Watson) wasn’t nearly as fortunate.

    The Bucs have been historically bad when it comes to developing QBs. Steve Young among others comes to mind.

  34. Dapostman Says:

    Brady didn’t do squat without Gronk & AB. He started 7-5 when Gronk was getting into shape after sitting out 2019. AB didn’t join until the second half of 2020. Then Brady goes 8-10 without them in 2022. So he’s 15-15 pretty much without Gronk & AB. The point is in order to win you must have a team around a QB. The Brady years in Tampa prove this.

  35. Just Leave Trask Alone Says:

    I figured as much as this board hates Trask I’d go against the grain and support the guy.

    Baker has a looking record as a starter. Throws a lot of INTs. Not a big yardage guy. He’s as overrated as it gets. With Mayfield you know what you’re going to get and it ain’t much.

    Trask is an unknown. Everyone pretty much knows this is a lost season. It makes sense to see what we got and get the guy reps.

  36. Goatfarmer Says:

    The guy with his night time fantasy in his screen name thinks everyone hates his boy.

    No one hates him. The people in this website aren’t putting him at third string behind Goobert or signing a bunch of other quarterbacks because they’ve seen two years of Trask and unlike fanboys, know what they have.

    People that put their favorite player in the screen name, they’re kind of east to hate however.

  37. Brazen Zebra Says:

    Them Okie fans started callin Baker “Shake & Bake” while he was playin college ball. I love it!! Let’s bring back some of that Mayfield Magic! The “Shake & Bake Bucs”! Go Baker! Go Bucs!

  38. Just Leave Trask Alone Says:

    LOL Goat project your strange fantasies elsewhere. This is a football message board.

  39. garro Says:

    Wow that is incredible!

    Aquiring a known comodity versus the crap shoot of drafting an overhyped college QB who played in a college offense. Who woulda thought! Geez! Oh BTW, even if you hit the pick chances are by the time he “develops” the coach who drafted him is gone.