Oddsmakers Favor Baker Mayfield (In The Short Run)

March 17th, 2023


Joe is passing along some good news and some bad news.

By way of Matt Severance of Sportsline.com, news of the Bucs signing journeyman quarterbck Baker Mayfield is good. Initially.

By way of Matt Severance of Sportsline.com, news of the Bucs signing journeyman Baker Mayfield is bad. In the long run.

It seems oddsmakers believe that yes, Mayfield is your Bucs starting quarterback. Oddsmakers have Mayfield at -200 to be the Bucs’ Week 1 starter. Kyle Trask is now +150.

[Mayfield] was quite terrible last season with Carolina and was eventually released. With Matthew Stafford hurt, the Rams claimed Mayfield off waivers, and he played five games and started four, going 1-3. He was better in L.A., completing 63.6% of his passes for 850 yards, four touchdowns and two picks for a rating of 86.4 – which still isn’t great, but better than his 74.4 in seven games with the Panthers.

… Tampa Bay is one of the few teams with a potential starting job open. Trask, a 2021 second-round pick out of Florida, has seen action in one regular-season game in his career. He entered in relief of Brady in last season’s regular-season finale in Atlanta. Trask completed 3 of 9 passes for 23 yards. …

If head coach Todd Bowles wants to keep his job, he can’t afford another losing season in 2023. He would surely prefer to go with the veteran Mayfield over the inexperienced Trask – and with a new OC, Trask doesn’t have a leg up on knowing the offense like he would have with Leftwich.

Severance also notes the SportsLine Projection Model predicts the Bucs to be at least a win better this season (1.2 to be exact) than if Kyle Trask is the Week 1 starter.

Now for the bad: Vegas oddsmakers lowered the Bucs’ chances of winning the Super Bowl with Mayfield as the Week 1 starter. The projection model gives the Bucs a 0.10 percent shot of winning the Super Bowl if the season opens with Mayfield behind center Ryan Jensen.

29 Responses to “Oddsmakers Favor Baker Mayfield (In The Short Run)”

  1. ATLBuc Says:

    Trask’s will start and take us to the Super Bowl

  2. Tye Says:

    WELL, it is what it is…
    IMHO, having Bowels for a HC is FAR MORE likely the reason the odds of the Bucs in the SB is so low…

  3. Who Says Says Can't Say Says:

    so 0.10% is like 1000:1…. I’d take those odds.

  4. SOEbuc Says:

    They will get another QB to compete with trask for backup or Baker for starting. I don’t give a sh!t about Vegas, that’s not what excites me. Canalas long QB coaching has me excited to work with Baker, as long as he’s not a b!tch. Jason Licht and Canalas sat down for a while and finally chose Baker because Trask is PS material.

  5. MadMax Says:

    Joe Flacco….theres the cheap experienced guy in the room…but trust me, Baker is starting.

  6. MadMax Says:

    Well, we might just have to draft Hooker at 19…yeah we might be able to trade down a few spots, but its fine. Im ok with drafting him at 19.

    Cooking with Baker at the helm, Trask as his backup, Hooker healing and learning, Flacco as the uncle bringing them along….

    Something about that scenario just brings a little happy tear to my eye

  7. sasquatch Says:

    I don’t listen to what the football yakkers and oddsmakers say. I know where the team stands. Until I see otherwise, I’m going to hope and expect will Mayfield do a good job as a starter. I’m looking at the upside. He’s certainly got incentive to play lights out. If he can play within the system, and they can rely on a revived running game, they have a chance.

  8. MadMax Says:

    ….and you’re welcome


    The NFL is rich with stories like the one that Baker’s could end up being.

    As just ONE example, Jim Plunkett was a Heisman Trophy Winner who was chosen #1 overall by the Patriots. He flamed out there, and then flamed out in San Francisco.

    Finally after several years, he found himself being an Oakland Raider. He went on to win 2 Super Bowls and may STILL find himself in the Hall of Fame.

    Just saying… you never know how these stories can play out. We know THIS of Baker Mayfield. If nothing else, we know he has passion & guts. Let’s just see what happens.

  10. SOEbuc Says:

    Hooker will be a 2-3 round and Bucs need much more important position in both sides of the trenches and a safety that has the Logan Ryan type game that can rotate with weinfield. Ryan for secondary coach!!

  11. Vlad The Impaler Says:

    What I get from the various Mayfield critiques is that he’s got physical skills and enthusiasm but lacks where Brady excelled: Decision making and reading the field.

    Personally I’d love for him to have a good season because I can’t help but root for the Bucs. Having a (relatively) young, loud-mouthed winning QB would be awesome.

    It really hinges on 3 people: Licht, Canales and Mayfield.
    IF Licht can field a competitive offense and IF Canales and Mayfield can out-think the good defenses in the league.

    That’s exactly what Brady and Arians did in 2020.

  12. Vlad The Impaler Says:

    It really hinges on 3 people: Licht, Canales and Mayfield.
    IF Licht can field a competitive offense and IF Canales and Mayfield can out-think the good defenses in the league.

    ^This should be the Mission Statement for 2023

    Vlad has spoken
    Make checks payable to VladTepish c/o Romanian Consulate DC

  13. MadMax Says:

    @SOE, I get you, but without a competent quarterback, teams lose

    We have Baker, Trask, draft Hooker (wherever…a 2nd or 3rd will be sweet) and lets roll into 2024/2025…Baker is 2023

  14. steele Says:

    That entire paragraph from Severance basically says absolutely nothing. Zero new information, zero insight. A typical puff of nowhere national sports mediot hot air. One of an army of outside fools making flatulent noises, trying to drum up sports gossip. Nobody cares about what “oddsmakers say”.

  15. Defense Rules Says:

    I don’t know diddly about Canales, except what general type of an offense he says he’s looking to create. I’m gonna assume at this point that WHOEVER does the best job of running that offense will get the starting nod when our 1st game kicks off this Fall. If not, Canales is a fool.

    Neither Mayfield nor Trask truly excites me at this point. Baker’s been inconsistent & Trask is an unknown. Chances are pretty good that regardless of which one opens the season, the other will see plenty of action in 2023.

    Ironically, IF Baker does well, we probably wouldn’t be able to afford him in 2024. IF Trask does well, we’ll have 1 more year with him on his initial contract before we probably wouldn’t be able to afford him. So regardless, in 2024 the Bucs better be looking at drafting a QB with our top pick. Supposed to be a very good QB class & we’ll probably have missed a fantastic opportunity to find our franchise QB.

  16. HC Grover Says:

    1000 to 1 we win the SB. Better than expected…Tied with the Skanks and ahead of Falcons and Panthers. This means that we battle the Skanks for the division,

  17. K_bassuka Says:

    Mayfield is like Fitzpatrick, he will give you 4-5 good games per year just to turn around and completely destroy the team spirit.

  18. Oddball Says:

    The Baker Act.

  19. BucsfanFred Says:

    Vegas is going to completely RUIN the NFL.

  20. Dooley Says:


    nice to see you’re backing away from the re-drafting of OJ Howard at 19th overall and picking a player that comes with more value than a Y-TE, good job. Also nice to see the lot of you coming around to having a 3-way competition at QB, because duh this is football handing the job over to anybody is a good way to eff around & find out

  21. PA Buc Fan Says:

    Agree Tye. Bowles is the reason we have no shot at winning a Super Bowl. I means let’s be real. Dude has never won and couldn’t win with Brady. Now we are supposed to buy in he can with with Mayfield or even draft and develop a qb and win with that. Please Tampa do the smart thing and fire him.

  22. PA Buc Fan Says:

    Also why does everyone love Hooker. He was a product of the system he played in. That style will never be duplicated in thr NFL. He is a total bust and is coming off a major injury. I loved him at Tenn but do not see it translating to an NFL franchise chasing qb whatsoever!

  23. JBBucs_06 Says:

    In the words of Jim Mora….”Super Bowl!?!? Super Bowl!?!?!???”. yeah right.

  24. Dooley Says:

    @PA Bucs

    Because he’s the best QB in this class, you’re judging the system more than the player and that’s partly why the Bears passed on Patrick Mahomes for Mitch Trubisky

  25. Goatfarmer Says:

    Fans, face it, Bloweszo could coich the 1979 Steelers to a 5-12 record.

    Licht is taking away all his excuses, bringing back LVD and Dean, signing Baker, firing Leftwurst. Now it’s all on Bloweszo, so when he notches his 5th consecutive losing season as head coich, Licht fires him easily.

  26. Just Leave Trask Alone Says:

    The inference is obvious. Trask has better upside.

  27. Rand Says:

    You gotta love how these reporters make themselves look like geniuses by going out on a limb to predict Mayfield will get the start. Well it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure that out, not when there is potentially $8.5 million reasons why. Talk about going out on a limb, This move will be the nail in coffin for Jason Licht and Todd Bowles. If they had just started with the virtual rookie in Trask they might’ve had a built in excuse for a down season but not now.

  28. Mike Johnson Says:

    I truly want Baker to succeed with us. But right now, I’m not seeing or feeling it. Dumped by 3 teams in 2 yrs says to me, you are not a starter in this league. Sure, He will give you 3 or 4 great games then go South..Way South. Its going to be interesting fellow Buc fans. But Don’t expect to much. 7-10..at best. And I do mean at best.

  29. TampaBayBucsFanSince1976 Says:

    No significant Oline improvement and none of it matters-none of it.