Handicappers Place Odds On Derek Carr Landing With Bucs
February 15th, 2023
“Derek, we met a lot of these guys in Vegas. They’re like Colin Cowherd. They’re about action, not accuracy.”
If you believe the wiseguys –or as Brent Musberger likes to say, “Our friends in the desert” — the Bucs are a top-five team to reel in veteran Pro Bowl playoff quarterback Derek Carr.
That’s the intel offered by Matt Severance of Sportsline. It seems, while the Bucs are not the favorite to sign Carr, who was released by the Raiders this week, they are in the running.
Whether the Buccaneers go after Carr (and how intensely they do so) may depend on whether Tampa Bay thinks it can still contend sans Brady with an aging roster. If the Bucs think it’s reboot time, they may want to get a look at young Kyle Trask under center. Jimmy Garoppolo has been linked to Tampa. Some QBs might be leery of trying to fill Brady’s shoes.
Joe senses there is a major tug-of-war going on at One Buc Palace. The personnel people probably want to launch a rebuild. Bowles, knowing how Team Glazer does not like coaches with losing records in two straight years, wants nothing at all do to with a rebuild.
Bowles also likely knows if he doesn’t win this year, it may be his last as a head coach in the NFL. Very few coaches get a third shot to be a head coach.
As a result, Bowles is likely heavily lobbying for a durable veteran quarterback who has had success and stayed consistent. Carr has both.
Of course, it won’t be cheap to land Carr and the Bucs’ salary cap situation is dreadful. Still, the worst team in the league with cap space, the slimy Saints, had the foundation of a trade for Carr in the works before Carr nixed it leading to his release.
If the slimy Saints can find quarters between the cushions in the couch to sign Carr, so too can the Bucs.
Per Severance’s research, here are the odds on where Carr lands:
Via SportsLine oddsmakers: Which team will Derek Carr sign with?
Saints +300
Panthers +350
Titans +400
Jets +600
Bucs +750
Commanders +900
Patriots +1500
Packers +1800
February 15th, 2023 at 2:49 pm
I just need an explanation on how can we afford him…Like if I was a 5 years old or a Golden Retriever….2+2 is not 4 anymore
February 15th, 2023 at 2:51 pm
This is not happening. Do the friggin’ math. If they did, they’d just be kicking the can down the road another few years because they can’t afford his 30+ million salary this year, so they’d be backloading the hell out of it, and the cap pain continues… And for what? A team that still won’t be able to sign other quality free agents (even its own), and will probably finish in the bottom half of the league and turn over another coaching staff next year? No. This is not the time for a huge investment in a QB who has never won a playoff game. We’d get more bang for the buck by signing Mayfield, Brissett, or maybe even Gabbert.
This is just more of the NFL speculation industrial complex doing what it does to generate clicks and sell ads.
February 15th, 2023 at 2:53 pm
I have it on good authority that Carr will sign with the jets or titans. That authority being me. I want nothing to do with him. He’ll command large dollars we just don’t have. Nope, ride out the year with our wasted second time rounder and let the chips fall where they may.
February 15th, 2023 at 3:02 pm
Lock it in Redeemer!
February 15th, 2023 at 3:06 pm
Me, I’m just waiting to see what happens. Instead of breaking out the popcorn and watching, I’m guzzling colonoscopy juice in prep for this coming season.
It’s gonna be a real nail-biter!! 😉
February 15th, 2023 at 3:09 pm
Cap number is just something that can be kicked down the road. What do you think the federal government does with our national debt.
February 15th, 2023 at 3:22 pm
Oh Goody Goody. A has been QB with a has been HC just in order to virtue signal and spin before the real season of the losers starts. The guy is a loser to match Bowlzo. Perfect.
February 15th, 2023 at 3:24 pm
Regarding Carr it’s a matter of should they; not can they because they can afford him. It would just further compromise future years of cap space for somewhat of a win now kind of move.
GA from Fox sports and formerly of the athletic said: “Let’s say he wants four years, $150 million, half guaranteed. He gets minimum $1.2m base salary, $50m bonus this year. Add two void years, his 2023 cap number is just $9.5 million. It’s viable.”
Viable, but not a good investment, especially long term, which is why ultimately I believe the Bucs should roll with Trask to see if he is the answer.
It will give the organization a clear direction to go whereas signing Carr is wasting future money on what could be no more than a bridge QB that has a losing regular and post- season record on a rapidly aging team that lacks quality leadership.
February 15th, 2023 at 3:26 pm
BOwles is a defensive minded, old school coach. He doesn’t think he needs Carr to win. He’s thinking Kyle Trask, a good running game and great defense. I really doubt if Bowles would link his success with Derrick Carr.
February 15th, 2023 at 3:27 pm
The Toadster has four consecutive losing seasons as a headless coich already, right now. He’s the losingest headless coich in the NFL . But, we’re stuck with him. Let’s all get out the clown noses.
February 15th, 2023 at 3:29 pm
Redeemer Says: “ride out the year with our wasted second time rounder”
You gotta be a complete ignoramus or have a lot of pent up bias to say that, likely both. By your logic Brett Favre and Jalen Hurts were wasted second rounders too.
February 15th, 2023 at 3:30 pm
I’d go to the Carolina, maybe Atlanta. Those teams are on the rise.
February 15th, 2023 at 3:31 pm
YucsBall … ‘Cap number is just something that can be kicked down the road. What do you think the federal government does with our national debt.’
Oh wow, that’s wrong on so many levels. When was the last time you saw the Bucs print money like the Feds do to get out of debt (ie, our salary CAP hole)? Or the last time you saw the Bucs write an IOU to the Social Security trust fund owned by their ‘shareholders’ (aka, taxpayers) to bail them out and, oh ya, ‘kick the can down the street for another year’?
Inevitably the bill comes due YucsBall. It’s not Monopoly money.
In the Bucs case, you can thank your GM. In the Feds case, you can thank the politicians.
February 15th, 2023 at 3:31 pm
That being said, if Carr were signed, it would significantly limit his ability to resign defensive stalwarts like SMB, Gholston, David, Nunez-Roches et.al . SO, do you think Bowles, a defensive coach, wants to sign Carr or keep his current defensive stars?
February 15th, 2023 at 3:39 pm
Why does anyone care he is a loser with a total losing record. Like Bozo.
February 15th, 2023 at 3:42 pm
Goatfarmer head bags are better. Break them out in the 3rd qtr of another Bowzo game loss blunder the head for the tailgate.
February 15th, 2023 at 3:50 pm
A Bucs Fan … I agree with you that signing Carr is not a good, long-term investment. And just for the record, I like Carr. But we simply can’t keep on going like we have been, and signing him would set us back several years (and we’re already deep in the salary CAP hole for not just 2023, but also 2024 AND 2025 AND 2026. It’s already to the point of being absurd.
As of today, Bucs are officially in LAST PLACE in the salary CAP sweepstakes (yup, New Orleans has officially moved into #31 position). We’re MINUS $55.7 mil in terms of the 2023 salary CAP, and needing to sign quite a few FAs AND draft picks just to field a team for this year.
Spotrac has an excellent analysis of our ‘situation’ in the section on the Bucs’ 2023 salary CAP page entitled ‘What’s Next: Tampa Bay Buccaneers’. Before you read it, have a beer or 2. Or a couple of margaritas. Or maybe both. It’s enlightening, but disheartening at the same time. Beer helps.
February 15th, 2023 at 4:15 pm
Vegas also had the Bucs winning the NFC and going to the SB last preseason.
Never underestimate what a bad head coach does to a team.
February 15th, 2023 at 4:22 pm
Defense Rules – I haven’t seen that article yet, but I’ll check it out, since I enjoy salary cap talk.
But, with that said, you can keep it going, if you have a reason to. For Carr, they could just do a backloaded deal with a ton of guaranteed money and void years. They still have to make moves to get under the cap this year, but the 2024 cap is going to explode, I’d guess at least $60m or more, which is actually why it’s not a bad idea to tie up anyone you want to keep now, since as the cap goes up, so will players salaries.
The issue is Carr is absolutely not worth blowing up future years for. He’s a guy that might, in a very good year, get you to 7-10, or maybe even 8-9 if everyone is healthy and the Bucs get every single break possible.
I mean why would the Raiders give up an alleged ‘pro-bowl’ QB in his prime years for nothing? Makes no sense at all, other than they got sick of his act.
February 15th, 2023 at 4:22 pm
For me, Im looking forward to see what Trask can do. No pressure, no Brady expectations just pure football. Scrape all the fat, wrinkles and loafers off this roster and start from scratch. Get younger through the draft. I would ask Evans if he would like to be shopped, he doesnt deserve another rebuild, let him decide. LVD, if he wants to stay, give us a discount or hit the road. DW45, I wouldnt ask, just trade him to the highest bidder. Brate, thanks its been real, good luck. Dean=sign, SMB=the exit is that way. Shaq, might as well keep as he is untradable and guaranteed cash. Nelson is a keeper if affordable. If we could cut ties with Lenny without cap implications, see ya. LT Smith, pay cut or your cabs out front. And finally Jensen. Love him but if he could bring in some draft capital, see ya.
February 15th, 2023 at 4:24 pm
If you don’t think the Glazers haven’t been on the phone non-stop to Brady to clear some of that dead money you’re insane. Even Gronk said that if Brady was going to play this year it was going to be in Tampa, and I don’t think he wants to leave a sour taste in the mouths of Bucs fans or the Glazers. I mean he doesn’t need the money we all know that plus he’s got a multi-million dollar TV deal starting next year so I think anything he can do to clear some cap space he’ll concede to the glazers. He’s always been about his own public perception and he knows his late retirement decision kind of screwed the organization over so I think he’ll do something to help. Now do I think they’ll use that money for Carr, or to retain some of the key free agents…. that’s another question entirely… Am I totally wrong JOE?
February 15th, 2023 at 4:24 pm
Rod … Even the best QBs are only as good as the TEAM around them. Ask Tom Brady.
February 15th, 2023 at 4:30 pm
If Carr goes to the Panthers they will run away with the NFC South
February 15th, 2023 at 4:42 pm
If the Glazers and Jason want him bad enough they’ll get him. We got Brady.
February 15th, 2023 at 4:42 pm
Titans and Jets are a cold weather team so they might be out as Carr does not like cold weather.
February 15th, 2023 at 4:44 pm
Noleriff … I think that the only way for Brady to ‘help the Bucs’ is for him to un-retire, rework his contract, then re-retire the next day. Do I think he’ll do that? He would’ve already IF that was his intention.
Best ways for us to save 2023 salary CAP dollars without totally screwing up 2024, 2025 & 2026 (which already screwed up) would be to:
o Release Succop: save $3.8 mil
o Release Brate: save $2.0 mil
o Rework Godwin’s contract: savings TBD (depends how they restructure him)
o Rework Evans’ contract: savings TBD (same)
o Rework Davis’ contract: savings TBD (same)
Beyond that, they’ll need to decide what they want to do about D Smith. Lots of options there, to include releasing him (save $10 mil), let him play out this year at his existing salary, or even restructure his contract for say 3 years (and save several mil this year by doing so). A lot depends on how well they think he’ll recover from last season (injuries, etc) AND what they believe about Wirfs & Goedeke in particular.
We’re in a similar situation with Devin White. He’s entering his 5th year making $11.7 mil. If he’s really looking for $20 mil a year after that based on how he’s played, I’d be looking at a trade then draft a MLB high & re-sign LVD to break him in. (Giving him the 5th year option may have been a tad premature?) But then again, compared to some of JL’s other signings last year (like Hicks, Julio, Gage, Rudolph) Devin White’s looking like a steal for ONLY $11.7 mil.
February 15th, 2023 at 4:45 pm
NO! Then Todd should quit. Seriously.
No tears here. QUIT!
February 15th, 2023 at 4:48 pm
Bowles was given a great team with a HOF QB. The best of all time. And he could only get to 8-9.
What in God’s name makes anyone think he could do better with worse?
February 15th, 2023 at 4:49 pm
I think Carr would likely be the best fit of the FA’s, if we want a chance to be at least as good as last year. Primarily because he does have talent, one of the faster releases among QB’s which is critical with our O line, and is in his prime. But the question is, do we bite the bullet now and hope to find a QB next year in the draft, or do we make another push? If it is about the push, I’m Ok with it. But still think Rebuild is like better. Another thing. If we don’t do well this year, are we more likely to interest a new, good HC with Carr at the helm? Or Trask and a higher draft pick?
February 15th, 2023 at 4:58 pm
Defense Rules Says:
Rod … Even the best QBs are only as good as the TEAM around them. Ask Tom Brady.
————–
Carr has had offensive talent around him. This year he had the league’s best rusher, one of the best WRs, a very good #2 WR, and two good TEs (Waller was injured for a lot of the year, but even when he was healthy the offense still was a mess).
Also their offensive line wasn’t terrible, again they had the NFL’s top rusher.
In Tampa, you get a downgrade at RB, run blocking and TE, and an upgrade at WR and pass blocking. Although, if the Bucs did dump Fournette, I could see White having a monster year.
On defense, if the Bucs lose Dean, SMB, David, Hicks, and Shaq isn’t 100%, then this defense isn’t going to be any better than what he had there.
Carr is vastly overrated. He lacks leadership, which people here nonstop complained about with McCoy. But he also lacks a winning mentality, he’s all about his stat sheet. While Carr can look good at times, other times he just goes through the motions. Again, I’m not going to root against him if the Bucs sign him, but all you’re doing is putting the team on a treadmill of losing for years to come with him. I’d rather blow it up and just start over than be stuck going 6-11 for the next 5-years.
But, I could be wrong. Like how you’re completely wrong talking about Devin White, saying the Bucs shouldn’t have given him a 5th year option? You anti-White people are insane. One of the best interior rushers in the NFL and you think they should get rid of him? That’s just dumb beyond reason. Instead, use him correctly. If he stinks in coverage (and he does) then don’t use him in coverage. Problem solved.
February 15th, 2023 at 5:47 pm
Bowles is pitching his mediocracy to save his sorry coaching butt again.
Prolly pitched it the same way with the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets.
February 15th, 2023 at 5:56 pm
The handicappers should well know when a team is handicapped by a handicapped coich, as the Bucs have, in the Blowzo Toad.
February 15th, 2023 at 7:17 pm
No no no no no no no. Carr is a bad idea.
And I don’t see Brady playing nice with the money Glazers owe him. Bucs don’t owe Brady a nickel. It’s all salary cap stuff, strictly accounting on paper. —Joe
He’s going to stick it to them in the same way they stuck it (another season) to him.
February 15th, 2023 at 7:52 pm
Why throw big bucks at a qb when you can’t block worth a dam. Might as well use Trask as cannon fodder until the oline has been rebuilt. Why would any top qb want to come join the mess in Tampa. You saw what Brady looked like this year in panic mode. No running game, mediocre pass blocking = no high quality qb coming to Tampa.
February 15th, 2023 at 7:55 pm
Bucs don’t owe Brady a nickel. It’s all salary cap stuff, strictly accounting on paper. —Joe
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I know it’s all cap management stuff, but I thought they literally still had to pay him out of pocket as well. That’s interesting if he already got all his cash, since that means any QB they deal with, they can just do the same thing. I thought a lot of the money would literally not be paid out for a year or more, even if it was guaranteed.