Bucs Popular Team Not Expected To Make Playoffs

February 22nd, 2023

Todd Bowles

It seems like the subscribers and readers of a popular stat site are not down with what the Bucs may be doing this offseason.

Joe’s good friends at Football Outsiders ran a readers poll. No, not a confidence poll. This asked all sorts of questions about the NFL from the usual (MVP) to the unusual (best touchdown dance).

One questions was, which playoff team will not return to the postseason in 2023? Sadly, the Bucs ran away with this query, documents Vincent Verhei.

Well, they weren’t that good before, and now their quarterback’s gone. That’s a pretty good reason to be skeptical of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Lavonte David and Akiem Hicks are about to be free agents. Oh, and they’re dead last in effective cap space (yes, behind even the Saints) per Over the Cap. It seems the question in Tampa is not whether the Bucs will decline, but if the Falcons, Saints, or Panthers will improve enough to catch them.

Here is the ugly truth. Joe doesn’t understand how a team gets better when it loses the greatest quarterback who ever lived (Tom Brady), might lose a Hall of Fame linebacker (Lavonte David) and may lose the best cornerback in free agency (Jamel Dean).

Joe doesn’t rightly know how you lose that kind of talent and improve.

Last year the Bucs finished with an 8-9 regular season record. The rest of the NFC South finished in a three-way tie for second place with 7-10 records.

Playoff Teams Not Expected To Make Playoffs In 2023
(Voted on by Football Outsiders readers)

47.8% Tampa Bay
16.1% Minnesota
12.4% New York Giants
6.7% Seattle
3.8% Dallas
3.8% Miami
2.7% Baltimore
2.7% Los Angeles Chargers

21 Responses to “Bucs Popular Team Not Expected To Make Playoffs”

  1. Tye Says:

    Looking at their HC, I would have voted Tampa Bay all day!

  2. Larry Says:

    Why wasn’t Bowles included in this/ He has never done well as a HEAD coach. great DC. Hope I am wrong but I don’t see the Bucs better 6-11 in 2023. Just too many problems including the salary cap.

  3. Voice of Truth Says:

    Well, that’s better than the 85% or so of fans that voted to have the HC removed

    There are going to have to be multiple miracles that occur for this team to be competitive, much less sniff the playoffs

    Over/under 5 Wins with Bowles in charge and a roster that is gutted

  4. Tye Says:

    ‘It seems the question in Tampa is not whether the Bucs will decline, but if the Falcons, Saints, or Panthers will improve enough to catch them.’

    Not expecting the Saints to improve BUT I would not be shocked if the Panthers and Falcons make a next level leap to contenders…

  5. Rod Munch Says:

    We have no idea who the QB is going to be, so they should be at the top of that list until that gets settled.

  6. Goatfarmer Says:

    The biggest no-brainer of the off-season. But at least we have Toad.

    Oh, wait, that’s negative. Sorry.

  7. Erik Hesson - Fine Artist - Founder of UniqueModernArt.com Says:

    Everything having to do with the Bucs at this time is just simply depressing. How can they not give the HC job back to BA? I’m done with this suckfest til the season starts. What an embarrassing contrast from the past few years. Garbage franchise once again!

  8. Rand Says:

    Go after FA QB Gardner Minshew or Cooper Rush and let them compete with Trask for the start.

  9. sasquatch Says:

    Is it a surprise we would be picked? We were by far the worst playoff team this year. We sucked and had no business in post-season. We lose Brady. Now we’re worse. We are in salary cap hell and won’t be able to sign a bunch of defensive free agents. There is no good reason to think we’ll be a good team.

    On the other hand, maybe we have a more consistent offense that can actually run the ball in 2023. The point production was such sh!t last year that, if they’re more efficient, they could be more productive even without Brady.

    I’d say, if we manage to get competent QB play and a running game, and the NFCS still sucks, we could still win the division… That’s a lot of “ifs” but every other NFCS team has a lot of “ifs” and question marks, None of the teams have an established QB. If Licht handles the cap maneuvers smartly I’d say we have as good a chance as any of the other NFCS teams.

  10. FortMyersDave Says:

    I have to agree with everyone who has already posted. It is hard to see this team being better than 5 or 6 wins this fall. Sasquatch is right that the Bucs are playing in a very weak division and 7 or 8 wins could win it again but consider that of the 8 wins the Bucs got last season, how many were due to Brady pulling a rabbit out of his hat (Saints at home, Rams, Cards, etc)? This team could have easily been 5 and 12! Thus the low expectations are warranted. Hey miracles happen but I would not be surprised if the Bucs (and Saints) win o/u is going to be around 5.5 or so. Like Sasquatch I hope for the best but Bowels does not exactly make a Buc fan very confident. This year might be the year to get the cap heck behind the team and go 4-13 and start the rebuild.

  11. Allbuccedup Says:

    I am sure the HC was in the back of their minds also.

  12. Defense Rules Says:

    Excellent write-up Joe, especially that analysis by Verhei. How can you lose as much talent as we have (and probably will lose more) and expect to even be as good as we were last year (8-9)? And especially given our league-worst salary CAP situation.

    None of THAT was Bowles doing; that’s the inheritance that BA ‘gifted’ him last March 31st. It’s like finding out you’re the sole heir in a will, only to later learn there’s nothing but unpaid bills that just came due. I’ll give Bowles this: He’s not setting us up for a tank job like all too many of the purported Bucs’ fans would have us do. You don’t hire decent coaches IF your intention is to tank.

    The big question in my mind is ‘Can the Bucs dig out from this deep deep hole and turn this puppy around to where we become competitive in a reasonable period of time’?

    I personally like what I THINK is the new offensive direction that we’re building … a more BALANCED attack. I don’t see any indication of ‘run-first’ (whatever that term is supposed to mean) … yet (I’ll wait-and-see what the draft holds). I also like the George Edwards hire … a lot. The fact that his background is totally 4-3 tells me that our own defense MAY be in for some significant ‘modifications’ starting this year.

  13. Duane Says:

    It seems to be conventional wisdom, which is rarely “wise”, that the Bucs will suck and not make the playoffs in 2023.

    But to use Joe’s language, the Eagles were also a popular pick to miss the playoffs in 2022. It was also a popular pick a year ago that Jalen Hurts would get booed out of Philly and be out of a job by mid-season.

    Oh, and the Bucs were also a consensus pick to win the Super Bowl in 2022-23.

    So much for conventional wisdom and popular picks as tools for predicting the future.

  14. Bucfan Says:

    The staff that BA gifted to bowles won a SB and made it to the NFC championship game the following season. THEN bowles worked his magic. The Bucs will NOT improve until bowles is history!

  15. Ed Says:

    No surprise here. Time for the Bucs to get younger and even if a raw quarterback is available in the draft that has athletic ability to keep plays alive with his legs, that is a draft pick that needs to be made. There are some good prospects that may fall down to the 19th pick. If they are there you have to take one.

    Anthony Richardson (FLA) ran a 4.48 40 and has one of the strongest arms in the draft.

    Jaren Hall of BYU is also fast 4.52 40 and is a very good passer. A little small at 6′ 1″ but very accurate and athletic.

    I just think the NFL is now being dominated by quarterbacks that are moving around in the pocket and are running threats. Dropback guys like Trask could be good passers but thats only half of the skill set needed. The Super Bowl is a testament to that, both Maholmes and Hurts have excapability skills that set them apart from others.

  16. Jimbo B Says:

    47.8% ???
    They got it backwards. It should read 87.4%

  17. 1sparkybuc Says:

    Brady won games last season for the Bucs, but he also was the reason we lost some too. I’m optimistic about the future of this franchise, even though I have doubts about our HC. Given a strong ground attack, and some actual game experience with Evans and Godwin, I believe Trask will be more than capable. Any QB that can perform like he did in the SEC, can at least be competitive in the NFL. He has been underestimated before and exceeded all expectations. I will root for his success as long as he wears a Buccaneer uniform, and I will never understand the “fans” here that do not. Brady is gone. Trask is still here. It’s time to move on.

  18. Simeon97 Says:

    up surprised people think we have any chance. Barely made the playoffs with the best QB ever.

  19. Kevin Says:

    Well when you’re best db is Jamal Dean you got serious problems to begin with.

  20. 1sparkybuc Says:

    Brady was not the best ever last season. He could move the chains, but he couldn’t score points. Yards don’t matter if you can’t score points. He was sporadic and inconsistent. It definitely was time for him to hang it up.

  21. Roc Says:


    This is the Craziest Article Ever

    BUCS won’t make playoffs

    Excuse Me do you know who our COACH is ?????