The Todd Bowles Files: Pretty Good Against Rookie QBs, Not Good Against Backup QBs

December 8th, 2022

Bucs coach Todd Bowles.

Perhaps Joe is walking into a trap, but Joe feels if Bucs coach Todd Bowles will unchain his offense and worry more about scoring points and winning a game as opposed to guys sucking wind in January, the Bucs can beat the 49ers on Sunday.

Yeah, the 49ers have a ferocious defense. But it is not like the Bucs defense is soft. And throw in the fact rookie seventh-round pick, the last pick in the draft, quarterback Brock Purdy will make his first NFL start, Joe thinks the Bucs could steal a win in Levi’s Stadium.

So last night Joe decided to do some research:

Bowles, since he came to the Bucs in 2019, has a winning record against rookie quarterbacks but has a losing record when backup quarterbacks start.

Bowles’ defense with the Bucs is 6-2 against rookie quarterbacks, 5-6 facing backup quarterbacks.

The two losses to rookie quarterbacks were once at home and once on the road. The first was when the Bucs gagged all over themselves, choking away a 28-10 halftime lead to the Giants and Bucco Bruce Arians botched a last-second field goal with Matt Gay by having Jameis Winston take a two-yard loss to set up Gay who barely missed.

Had Arians not instructed Jameis to take the loss, Gay possibly would have made that kick.

The other loss to a rookie came this year when Kenny Pickett of the Steelers shamed the Bucs as the Bucs employed maybe the worst offensive gameplan Joe has ever seen.

As for backups, the Bucs with Bowles running the defense have faced Jacoby Brissett three times and Bowles is 2-1 against him, the lone loss coming a couple of weeks ago at the “Mistake by the Lake.”

15 Responses to “The Todd Bowles Files: Pretty Good Against Rookie QBs, Not Good Against Backup QBs”

  1. VATom Says:

    Ive felt that this D scheme is VERY reliant on prediction. It struggles when they dont have film. And it struggles when the WB gets confident because he either finds the crease or the scheme breaks down (see Andy Dalton, the Dude’s no pro bowler but when he hit a gew throws and wasnt worried about being sacked he lit the 2ndry up).

    Bowle’s scheme seems to be weakest when the coaches and players are dealing with a wildcard. Hopefully they have enough film on San Fran and this kid from college they’ll know his preferences. But of he starts hitting a few throws it’ll be a long day. Dalton was robbed by his own receivers and that step out of bounds. By all rights he was the better QB for 59mins.

  2. Defense Rules Says:

    ‘Joe feels if Bucs coach Todd Bowles will throw off the chains of his offense and worry more about scoring points and winning a game as opposed to guys sucking wind in January, the Bucs can beat the 49ers Sunday.’

    I’m half with you Joe; the Bucs CAN beat the 49ers this Sunday. But no, I wouldn’t bet money on it at this point.

    As far as ‘Bowles throwing off the chains of his offense’ goes, I guess I need SPECIFICS to understand what ‘throwing off the chains’ means. What SPECIFICALLY should Todd Bowles DO to get this offense to score more points. Should he demand that BL get more creative with his play designs & play calling? (Good luck with that). Should he urge Donnie to stop holding, or demand that Leverett play at least as good as Marpet, or Hainsey play better than Jensen or Wells play better than Wirfs? (Not in the cards, especially against San Fran’s #1 ranked defense). Or should he insist that his 45-year old QB hold the ball longer so deep routes can develop better? (Get the stretchers ready if that happens).

    Oh wait, he could run LESS, and telegraph to the 49er defense that they can let the dogs loose on every play. (Wouldn’t matter much anyways since the 49ers are #1 against the run). Oops, I forgot; more hurry-up offenses. That’ll do the trick and keep the 49ers from substituting & tire out their #1 defense. (Might tire our offense out too if it’s used too much, but that’s just an excuse for poor conditioning).

    Reality is that San Fran has won 5 in a row. They’re hot, BUT they just lost their starting QB. They won those 5 averaging over 27 PPG thanks to BOTH their passing & their rushing (excellent ‘balance’ so I think they’ll favor the run & try to keep their rookie QB from having to do too much). Their defense has been playing lights-out, giving up just a little over 11 PPG.

    Yet 4 of those 5 wins were against teams with losing records playing poorly. Of those 5 teams, the Chargers most closely resemble the Bucs (more air attack than rushing). They lost 22-16, but COULD have beaten the 49ers if not for getting shut down in the 2nd half (3 punts, downs & 1 INT in their 5 drives). Maybe we’ll fare better.

  3. Beej Says:

    Pickett didn’t beat us Trubisky did

  4. Bobby M. Says:

    Shanahan > Bowles…..we should have lost Monday night, we did lose against Cleveland….on the road, across the country, Bowles won’t have the team ready.

  5. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    We did well against Pickett….then he was injured….Trubisky came in and ate us up…..

  6. MadMax Says:

    We always lose against backup QB’s….thats not a Bowles thing, thats a Bucs thing….its a curse thats been there forever….all good, just gotta try to figure out the next one and change the outcome.

  7. Statistically Insignificant Reader Says:

    My optimism is tough to maintain when each week the Bowls Leftwich circle jerk shet show is on full display.
    Go Bucs

  8. MadMax Says:

    ^ Lol, agreed man…its fn stupid….

  9. Jmarkbuc Says:

    This one is a rookie AND a backup.. what’s the metric on that?

  10. Alanbucsfan Says:

    Brock Purdy? Please
    Deebo Samuel, C McCaffrey, B Aiyuk, G Kittle, K Juszczyk – Bucs need to focus on containing these players and blocking N Bosa and F Warner if they’re going to win this game.

  11. R.O. Says:

    Its not about Purdy. Its about the SF OL Vs the Bucs D. A QB who can just stand there will hit passes. No Matter the QB.

  12. Bring back the lawn chairs Says:

    Trubinsky owns the Bucs. Remember when he played for the bears and he had his way with the Bucs. We didn’t even get kissed that day. Ouch. He Scored around 50 that day. The Bucs d was in full lawnchair mode, I think that was the day ‘smitty’ got his walking papers if memory serves….
    I hope we don’t see this effort against the niners….

  13. Craig Says:

    The only way to unchain the offense is to chain up the OC. He trips over his own feet by not playing the right players at the right time, on top of only having 6 plays in his book.

    He will unleash D. White and he will give a few plays away by over running them and missing tackles. The D backfield can’t survive having to watch after D. White’s patch too.

  14. 99 55 47 20 Says:

    D needs to get some Turnovers this week

  15. unbelievable Says:

    Bucs have been losing to backup and rookie QBs long before Bowles got here…