Bucs Playoff Percentages Spike

November 17th, 2022

Bucs coach Todd Bowles.

Big changes in the odds that the Bucs make the playoffs.

Joe’s good friends over at Football Outsiders have a weekly feature each week calculating each team’s percentage change of making the playoffs. And boy, did the Bucs make hay last Sunday.

Combined with the Bucs beating the first-place Seahawks and the slimy Saints beating the Dixie Chicks, the Bucs saw their postseason chances jump nearly 20 percent.

The Bucs now have an 83 percent shot of winning the division.

For Bucs fans, it’s the NFC South title or bust for the Bucs. As of four days ago, that became a bit more likely.

28 Responses to “Bucs Playoff Percentages Spike”

  1. Stuck on a farm Says:

    Nice resolution on that micro graph, Joe

  2. Chris@Apple Roof Cleaning Tampa Says:

    Of course we are going to the Playoffs. That is what Division Champions generally do, and make no mistake, we will win the NFC South.
    How far we go in the playoffs is anyone’s guess. The Eagles looked absolutely invincible, until Washington exposed them.
    And Minnesota look very tough, or lucky, depending on your viewpoint.

  3. Casual Observer Says:

    We’re getting healthier. Watch out.

  4. Thisisouryear!!! Says:

    Didn’t the Panthers beat the falcons last week? I was thinking the Saints lost. If our defense is healthy, we can beat anybody.

  5. Beej Says:

    We need to take up a collection and buy Joe a better mod program

  6. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    Wasn’t it the stinking Panthers who beat the Falcons?

  7. Sean Says:

    5-2 over the last 7 should be the minimal expectation. The 49ers and Bengals are the only games where they shouldn’t be favored by at least 3 points. 10-7 is what a lot of people predicted. Playoff football is a different animal.

  8. stpetebucfan Says:

    I’ve always viewed the long grind that is the NFL SB chase as divided in thirds.

    We’ve just completed the first third. It’s the part of the schedule that helps position the team for the far more important second 1/3 of the season which itself leads to the only 1/3 that counts…THE POST SEASON.

    So how did the team do in the first 1/3. Fine! The Bucs are set up with a bye and increasing health to replicate their first Brady SB run. Muddle around the first third of the season…improve dramatically the second third of the season..and then what truly counts…PEAK for the post season!!!

    The Bucs are still well on track to repeat their last SB run.

  9. geno711 Says:

    I like the start of your proposition Stpetebucfan.
    I tend to be an optimist for the Bucs.

    However, when you suggested that we are still well on track.

    That discounts the loss of Shaq Barrett, JPP, Arians, Gronk, AB and a strong and steady offensive line that we had in that Super Bowl run. Now we may end up having a better interior “IF” Hicks is healthy, and a stronger defensive backfield again “IF” everyone is healthy.

    Someone or some group is going to have to surprise us if we are clearly on a Superbowl track.

  10. Beej Says:

    Buncha nattering nabobs of negativism up in here

  11. Buddha Says:

    Football Outsiders is the best NFL site on the internet. They now have the Buccaneers as the 7th best defense in 16th best offense. The defense has really come on since the game against the Ravens. Keeping Hicks healthy is the key to the rest of the season assuming no other major injuries to the offense and would be a big plus to get the starting center back. Surely we all should have learned that you can’t just look at the schedule and say well that’s a win well that’s a win well that’s a win. Every week is a challenge in the NFL.

  12. Your Mom Says:

    “So it’s the NFC South title or bust for the Bucs.”

    Joe that’s an incorrect interpretation of what you are looking at. That chance looks low because it’s including the division win cannibalizing it.

    If Atlanta wins out and goes 11-6 to take the division, the Bucs chances of winning the division would be near zero, but that wild card percentage would be much much higher.

  13. JD Says:

    We need to teach Joe that when you copy and paste an image, you have to save it in the correct file type so that the compression algorythm of that file doesn’t destroy the quality and resolution of the image.

  14. HC Grover Says:

    Agree. Division or out. Bye timing was good.

  15. Dooley Says:

    It’d be nice if this Browns matchup plays out like the Lions game back in 2020. Coming out of the bye, with a decisive victory would be a great first step in finishing this season strong.

  16. NEfan Says:

    Love to see it but a little to early to start drinking the koolaid.

  17. Buc1987 Says:

    NEfan…you don’t have to drink the kool-aid…in fact you can find a Pats site to do that on.

  18. Rod Munch Says:

    Sean Says:
    November 17th, 2022 at 9:13 am
    5-2 over the last 7 should be the minimal expectation.


    If they win the games they should win, that’s 5 wins right there, then if they split with the good teams, they’d be 6-1.

    I’ll take 5-2 or 6-1. Either way they’d be on a 7-2 or 8-1 streak going into the playoffs.

    Also, at 6-1, they’d end up 11-6, which is exactly what I predicted before the season. Not how I expected them to get there, but the final result would show some real momentum, at the right time of the year.

    Things are looking up if Leftwich can stop being an idiot and not just call the same plays in the same order over and over and over again.

  19. stpetebucfan Says:


    All excellent points. I certainly concede the formula that worked for the Bucs a couple of years ago would have to repeat. The OL wasn’t considered awesome in the middle of that season but they just seemed to keep getting better and better.
    By the time the SB rolled around the OL was considered top tier.

    I think that CAN happen for the Bucs. As for the “losses” I’ve moved beyond them they are no longer on the team or at least available in the case of Shaq.
    The guys who are now lining up are starting to appear up to the challenge of filling their predecessor’s shoes.

    I AM NOT SAYING our young guys have done that yet. Just that even with all the injuries, lack of cohesion and the rest that made the first part of our season a struggle our young guys have been one of the brightest spots of all.

    First let me say I think Jake Cmarda is the rookie of the year in the NFL if they actually counted “effect on games”. He has been spectacular! If he keeps it up we’ll have a Ray Guy type weapon for another decade. White is starting to blow up with his new found touches. Otton is starting to look very comfortable and ready to roll. Brate is healthy. Kieft blocks like a beast and can actually catch the ball as well. NONE of them is Gronk but the 3 off them together can take up some of those responsibilities. If Gronk hadn’t been a Kieff level blocker he might still be playing, he abused his body against some much larger men.

    I think the 2nd year DL are starting to really show up as well. In short I’m becoming bullish on the Bucs.

  20. Redeemer Says:

    Even during the losing streak, I had little doubt they’d win the division. Unbelievably, the 3 seed isn’t out of the question. How they finish will depend on two things imo. The defense and the running game. The blueprint for this team is the Dallas and Seattle games. They’re going to have to hold the score down, and stay balanced on offense.

  21. Mike Johnson Says:

    Just stay focused Bucs. The Browns have a tough game this week. You will be well rested. There is absolutely no excuse as to why we should not pulverize them. Lick and heal your wounds and be ready to ball out.

  22. Goatfarmer Says:

    Cue Jim Mora Sr. rant here.

    Bowelswich are very capable of bringing the Bucs out flat and uninspired in Cleveland. Boron will run over left guard 15 straight times. Browns will send pressure up the middle at Brady. It will look a lot like the loss to the Steelers.

  23. captivajim Says:

    I just hope that BA dosen’t push leftworst to call more dumb plays like was done in munich on the pass play to Brady on recognized very slippery grass !!!!! Arians is meddling behind the scenes & now throws Brady under the bus to save leftworst’s sinking reputation.

    Ba cost us the SuperBowl last yr when he forced out AB in that Jets game. Had AB been playing in that Rams game-we would have won…!!!

  24. orlbucfan Says:

    What’s with the white noize that Ko Kieft and Joe Otton who are ROOKIES can’t replace Gronkowski? How long did Gronkowski play before he was anointed? And the AB crap. I will be glad when this site attracts long time Bucs fans again. If the Bucs win the division which they will, then what? The SB? That’s a bit of a stretch.

  25. NEfan Says:

    Oral, so Gronk and AB weren’t major assets to the Bucs success? Man you are a all around hater.

    Bucs1987, as long as BL is calling the plays the O will be challenging. It’s like the D having a 12th man. You CANNOT ignor the fact Baltimore D stated they knew what BL was calling. Do you really think Ravens are exclusive?

  26. Goatfarmer Says:

    Losing to the Steelers and Panthers when decimated was a fire-able offense. Bowelswich proves their staggering ineptitude at that point. Other teams are going to have a random flat day. The Seahags came out flat, thinking they could sleepwalk to victory over Bowelswich and they were over-confident.

    Browns will not make that mistake.

  27. Reach87 Says:

    Leftworst…funny….in kindergarten. Go Bucs!

  28. Redeemer Says:

    orl, Gronk had 43 catches and 10 TDs his rookie year, in an extremely complex offense. So you could say he was anointed quite quickly. The next year he had 90 catches and 17, that’s right 17tds. If by long term bucs fans, you mean fans accustomed to being cellar dwellers, you won’t have long to wait. When Brady leaves, it’s back to unlovable loser status.