72 Percent Chance Of Winning The NFC South

November 30th, 2022

Playoffs, baby!

Sure, the Bucs are bad, losers of four of their past six games and sitting with a 5-6 record despite Tom Brady at quarterback and a bunch of Pro Bowl talent on the roster.

Scoreboard is scoreboard, however, and the Bucs lead the NFC South and control their destiny. Also, their remaining schedule isn’t too rough. If the Bucs win their remaining division games — all against worse teams and quarterbacks — the math says they’re about a 95 percent lock for the playoffs.

With six games remaining, the ESPN computers were barking this week that the Bucs’ current chances to win the division sit at 72 percent. Carolina, Atlanta and New Orleans divide the remaining 28 percent.

Joe likes those odds. And who the hell knows how good the Bucs might look in 6 1/2 weeks when/if they line up for a playoff game at The Licht House against the likes of the Cowboys or the Giants?

Any team can get a lot better — or a lot worse — over the course of a month.

32 Responses to “72 Percent Chance Of Winning The NFC South”

  1. Alanbucsfan Says:

    72 percent chance Bucs get outcoached in 2nd half of every remaining game this season

  2. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    We need to win a game….any game.

  3. Marine Buc Says:

    In most NFL Divisions it’s which team is best.

    In the NFC South it’s which team sucks a little less…

  4. Sal Says:

    They might not win another game all year 5 and 12

  5. ViSyl Says:

    Honestly, I don’t care about playoffs anymore, because this team like it’s now is a 1 and out in the playoffs. We need to improve.

  6. Bucsfanman Says:

    With everything going on, from bad coaching, bad play, and a 5-6 record, you cannot convince me that a Brady-led team won’t right the ship in short order. This team has way too much talent.
    Win the division and get into the playoffs. From there it’s anybody’s game.

  7. BA’s Red Pen Says:

    How far will it drop when we get our butts kicked by New Orleans next Monday?

  8. Winny Testaverde Says:

    Que Jim Mora with this article. I expect the Bucs to get boat raced Monday night…they’ll be lucky to go into Atlanta in Week 18 with a chance to win the division. The Taints, Bengals, 49ers will be tough games as well.

  9. Lini Says:

    Seriously? A 72% chance to win division and secure a home playoff spot! Who really cares, given that there is no chance this team will do anything in the upcoming playoffs! Extremely poor coaching, a team that is undisciplined and unmotivated is not a winning NFL formula. Tom, thanks for memories and a Tampa Bay Buccaneers SB Trophy! Good luck wherever you decide to play next year, as it surely will not be Tampa!

  10. John Sinclear Says:

    72% chance? This team, as it now plays, can’t beat NO or Atl. Doubtful they could even win against the Panthers. They need to pick it up, or they’re gonna pack it up!

  11. Hodad Says:

    We’ll be favored to beat Car, Atl, and N.O., but I’m not sure why. Carolina beat us, Atl was right there, and N.O. always has our number. Is Leftwich, and Bowles going to out coach anybody down the stretch? I’m not counting on it. Now Wirfs is out. I’d put our chances at 50-50 at best. I’d rather miss the playoffs and get Bowles fired then make it this year keeping Bowles as our coach. I think the only way Bowles gets fired is us not winning the division. A low bar for sure, one Bowles will probably trip over.

  12. D-Rok Says:

    Well said, Hodad. Honestly, D-Rok has little confidence we will beat the Saints. Why would I have any confidence? The way the Browns game unfolded, the Bucs, from top to bottom, don’t inspire much confidence.

    I will be VERY impressed if the Bucs turn around their season. Sure, it’s possible, but at this point, it just does not seem likely.

  13. AbucAway Says:

    It’s been 11 weeks. If Tom had the ability to right the ship, he would have. If Lefty had the ability to right the ship, he would have. Todd has had 11 weeks to right the ship and… nada.
    Wirfs is out. Replaced by the original turnstile, Wells. Winfield out(?). Shaq, out.
    72% chance it ain’t happenin.

  14. Tye Says:

    Just win the division and not the Saints!

    Let Brady call the plays and we might be surprised how far they go in the playoffs..

  15. Darin Says:

    I’ll take Atlanta +700. I thought these clowns would have figured something out during the bye. I’ve seen enough

  16. Craig Says:

    So what? I would much prefer some good football over the playoffs, at least then there would be a hope for next season.

    I can’t find a lot of that at this moment. Trash football and a gaslighting Bowles.

  17. BucU Says:

    All u need to know about this coaching staff is that they had 2 full weeks to gameplan for Cleveland.
    They looked like they had a 4 day Thursday night game. Playoffs? Don’t make me laugh.
    This team is dead on arrival. You know it. I know it.

  18. Buddha Says:

    I took Atlanta when they were + 1800 and playing everyone close. They have great coaching and will be the team to beat the next 5 years I am still rooting for the Buccaneers, but the offense has been damaged goods from day 1 this season. Too many critical injuries. 66 was the blood guts leader of the offense. Being a great defensive coach and being even a decent head coach or two very different things.

  19. robert Says:

    who cares at this point. its a participation trophy. if they do make the playoffs it will be one and done.

  20. Bucsfanman Says:

    AbucAway- Brady won with inferior talent in NE, just saying! He also had his own issues out of the gate this year.
    I find it difficult to dismiss him and this team, even with everything that has transpired.
    I’m still hopeful. Prove me right Bucs! 11-6! Do it!

  21. SufferingSince76 Says:

    I wouldn’t lay money on it. If I did, it would be on not making it and then let them prove me wrong.

  22. firethecannons Says:

    I hate these kind of articles–people believe this garbage stats–every team in nfc south has just as good a chance as Bucs. we are saddled with leftwich and bowles and that means we are going to implode long before year end. I give us a 25% chance. I hope for more but am realistic and we are hot garbage on offense and defense has a coach that every player and every other coach knows is a fraud.

  23. Bojim Says:

    Still my team.

  24. orlbucfan Says:

    Nothing like getting on blogs I’ve visited for years, and the regulars are gone. Bucs should be 8-3. GOAT cost them 3 games cos he’s too old and freezes up. He’ll be gone next year, and will take the groupies with him. Good. The genuine fans will come back.

  25. OrlandoBucFan Says:

    At this point, worrying about making the playoffs seems like a waste of time. I am not sure we are good enough to win more than a couple of our remaining games. The last game is in Atlanta. If that games decides the division, then we’re probably screwed. Other than our games against Dallas and Seattle (and maybe L.A.), we have shown no backbone.

  26. PSL Bob Says:

    Ah, the Joe with the optimistic outlook. I’m all for optimism but can’t ignore reality. Joe says the Bucs remaining schedule isn’t too rough, all against worse teams and quarterbacks. I would say Pittsburg, Carolina, and most recently Cleveland all fall within that category, and the Bucs lost to all of them. With the lame brain OC developing the game plan and calling plays and the head coach’s obsession with playing it safe, this team can lose to anyone. Such a sad, sad, state of affairs.

  27. AbucAway Says:

    Bucsfanman- I find it hard to dismiss him and the team as well. I don’t want to! I want to find a reason to believe, but, when top players are out, with less than adequate backups and Tom is not playing this year like he has in past year’s. Yes, at one time he could carry a team to a winning season, to the playoffs and beyond but this is not that year for whatever reason. He’s in a losing season which hasn’t happened since his earliest time in the NFL. And knowing how competitive he is and still not able to get this team to a winning record is what tells me this isn’t our year. But I’ll still watch it play out like I do year after year. Go Bucs

  28. Jeff Says:

    Lol! Zero chance. We’re about to see three losses in a row MI-NI-MUM. This is a 7 to 8 win team at best. Reality sucks.

  29. Goatfarmer Says:

    Brian Flores or Eric Bienemy.

  30. ClwJB Says:


  31. Cliff Says:

    Bucs need to get rid of the O C & H C … now, like a month ago – obviously the team isn’t liking the coaching staff calls or lack of & Brady & team are frustrated ! Bring back Bruce A now as H C & see what happens.

  32. captivajim Says:

    IF we’re #4 seed –looks like we would play Dallas.. It will be one-an-done….. Plus that will keep bowleszo around another yr ….