BSPN Projection: Shaq Barrett With 8.2 Sacks

August 22nd, 2022

More Shaq dances?

OK, Joe is going to get this right out of the way.

When Joe uses the word “model,” it has little if anything to do with numbers and absolutely nothing to do with football. OK, with that established…

Seth Walder of BSPN, a guy who never met a stat he didn’t like, a guy whose patron saint is Chargers head coach Brandon Staley, who blindly dives headfirst into tricky situations based solely on numbers and not what his players are doing on the field, thinks he knows how many sacks players will get this year based on a model.

No, not a her.

The make-believe concoction he programmed predicts Bucs sack king Shaq Barrett will lead the Bucs in sacks with 8.2.

Barrett is a good pass-rusher but his forecast benefits from his circumstances. The Bucs have the highest projected win total (11.5) among teams of players in the top 10. More wins leads to more opponent passing and more situations where the defense knows the offense is going to throw.

In addition, Barrett plays for blitz-happy coach Todd Bowles, who led the league in blitz rate last season at 38% — well above the 26% league average.

Walder believes 8.2 sacks is enough for Shaq to have the 10th-most in the NFL. So Joe has to be fair here with Walder. Those are reasonable building blocks to help conclude that Shaq will get eight sacks. Here is a reason Walder did not touch upon:

The Bucs’ pass rush might be better this year as a whole. Carl Nassib is back and he did pretty well for the Bucs back in 2019. Anthony Nelson is capable of sacks off the bench. The Bucs added Logan Hall and Akiem Hicks on the line, in part, to provide more of a pass rush and that also should free up Vita Vea a little.

Additionally, the Bucs are eager to see the new Joe Tryon-Shoyinka. The Bucs have streamlined his responsibilities and added pass rushers should take heat off of JTS.

So if all of these guys can help pressure quarterbacks, that will free up Shaq even more.

Joe doesn’t think it’s crazy to believe the Bucs could have more sacks than last year when they tied for or eighth in the NFL at 2.7 per game.

17 Responses to “BSPN Projection: Shaq Barrett With 8.2 Sacks”

  1. Maniac Buc Says:

    I’m calling it now. Shaq will have 15 sacks this season. JTS will have 12. Bucs as a unit will have close to 60 sacks and lead the league but at least 7-8 sacks.

  2. adam from ny Says:

    i think d white is going to get back in the sack mix…

    i could see him getting 6+ sacks this year, as he comes swooping in behind the 2 big behemoths up front

  3. Joshua porter Says:

    Top 5 defense this year that will carry us for the first part of the season while brady settles into the season.

  4. Defense Rules Says:

    The optimist in me is still hoping for a Top-5 defense, but the realist (or pessimist, whatever) says that we’ll end up ranking closer to the middle of the pack. Bucs defense seems to be injury-prone (as we saw last year?). Our DLine held up well in 2021, but our starting ILBs & OLBs missed a total of 12 games, while our starting Secondary missed a total of 24 games. And some of those starters were hurting in a number of games that they did start.

    This year I’m more concerned about the DLine & ILBs than I am about the OLBs & Secondary. We have decent depth in those latter two, but depth will be an issue in case of injuries to our ILBs or DLine. HOPEFULLY everyone stays healthy this year.

  5. Bird Says:

    A .2 sack really gets the crowd going at RayJay

  6. PassingThru Says:

    You should be worried about the defensive secondary, they’ve been getting worked in practice.

  7. JA Says:

    How can one earn credit for one-fifth of a sack?
    A half sack, sure, but the percentages end there.
    Ok, I’ll bite.
    My Fantasy Island prediction totals say Shaq will have 9.8725 sacks this year.
    Providing Baker Mayfield is listed as only 99.1275% of a real quarterback, a single sack of him and nine others should put Shaq right on the number.

  8. Jeff Says:

    6-8 is about right. If he stays healthy all season.

  9. Beeej Says:

    Had 10 last year, whilst hampered from JPP’s ineffectiveness

  10. Allbuccedup Says:

    Thats about 2 million dollars a sack a little expensive.

  11. SOEbuc Says:

    12-15+. JTS looks like he could have 10 from the action he has shown in preseason. Akeem Hicks a big man that can collapse the pocket and Bowles has praised Hall, but we will have to wait and see about the rook.

  12. Jack Burton Mercer Says:

    Shaq might just lead the league.

  13. J Ghotier Says:

    I can’t wait to that point .2 sack……and WHICH other 4 players contribute to the full sack 😂

  14. BucsfanFred Says:

    The defence will be better overall. I’m anticipating a very good rush this year.

  15. Buczilla Says:

    Based on my most current model, brain dead idiots will continue to give the snake oil nerds at pft their hard earned loot in the hopes of filling their heads with even more useless stats and info than they managed to absorb last year. This will of course embolden them to think that they know more about football than fans that actually watch games. When their views are poked and prodded instead of being automatically universally accepted as gospel, they will turn beet red, pout, and storm off in a fury of self righteousness.

  16. Rod Munch Says:

    If this projection is saying he’s 10th in the NFL at only 8-sacks, it sounds like they’re projecting a down year for sacks overall. But last year, keep in mind, the Bucs had to play a ton of zone after all the defensive backs kept getting hurt, and when you’re playing zone, you’re not blitzing much. I don’t know the blitz numbers, but I’m guessing Shaq’s numbers were down a decent amount last year. This year, if they play more man, which I’d expect, that should put him back in the 10-12 sack range, with an outside possibility of getting more.

  17. Alvin Scissors Harper Says:

    He sure as hell better have more than 8 sacks for the money he’s making, unless he leads the league in hurries.