A Battle To Reach Vegas Projections

May 24th, 2022

Bucs coach Todd Bowles.

As Brent Musberger would say, “our friends in the desert” seem to like the Bucs’ season win-total at 11.5.

That has held pretty steady since season win-totals came out by various oddsmakers. BetMGM still has the Bucs at 11.5.

NFL writer Vic Tufur of The Athletic, who also covers the Raiders for the same outfit, seems to have gone to his favorite book in Las Vegas and put a bunch of money down on the Bucs. But not in a good way, it appears.

Tafur is not a believer that the Bucs will win 12 games or more. He believes a combination of an old roster getting older, a roster not as good as 2020 and a brutal first month schedule adds up to the Bucs unable to reach 12 wins.

Buccaneers Under 11.5 (-110)

Well, we can’t count on Tom Brady retiring … and staying retired. But at some point, as this team keeps getting older, they are going to have to focus on staying healthy for the playoffs and not on stockpiling regular-season wins. The roster is not as good as it was in 2020. Not even close. The Bucs’ opening stretch of at Dallas, at New Orleans, Green Bay and Kansas City has me feeling pretty good about the Bucs only going 11-6 or 10-7.

Remember, there are two Joes who run this here website. One of the Joes doesn’t see winning 12 games to be much of an issue. The other Joe thinks winning 12 games is a bit of a reach. Sure, 10 wins, maybe 11 wins, of course. But 12 might be maxing it out.

But you know what? Who cares in the long run how many wins the Bucs get, so long as the Bucs get home-field advantage for the playoffs. That’s what really matters.

21 Responses to “A Battle To Reach Vegas Projections”

  1. Biff Barker Says:

    Biff thought 12 wins max at best. I’d settle for 11 wins, NFC South title and be somewhat healthy for the playoffs.

    Like everyone lse here, I can’t settle for losing to the Saints twice.

  2. GOB Says:

    I’ve got them at 11 wins Joe. I don’t think it’s enough for home field throughout. It might not matter, as the number one seed often gets bumped off. Look at last year. Had the bucs defeated the Rams, they would’ve hosted the NFC title game. What’s more important is improving as the season progresses, and peaking at the right time. You can’t control injuries.

  3. Buddha Says:

    Neither team that had home-field advantage made it to the super bowl last year. The buccaneers didn’t have home food advantage when they made it in 2020. The packers seem to have home-filled advantage every year and haven’t been in the super bowl in a decade. Be rested be playing your best football Don’t have too many injuries and you can win the super bowl if you are in the playoffs.

  4. Casual Observer Says:

    Foolish to speculate about 10,11, 12, or +. Silly worries, imo.

  5. Buccos Says:

    Tough schedule, no Godwin… hmmm Tom Brady. Take the over. Brady always covers the over for regular season wins. No problem!!

  6. Chris Tucker@Apple Roof Cleaning Tampa Says:

    Honestly, I do not care how many games we win, as long as we get into the playoffs. Home Field advantage is nice, but it is not everything. Remember, we had the Rams here at home, and we sh!t the bed.

  7. Steven007 Says:

    So when did we go back to 16 games?!

  8. Pickgrin Says:

    Hope you lose a BUNCH of money Vic Tafur.

    And I’ve got news for you buddy. This 2022 team (once Gronk and Suh re-sign) is a BETTER team than the 2020 team. Not substantially worse as you claim.

    That 2020 team had many struggles through 3/4 of the regular season (7-5 heading into Dec). Then got hot and stayed hot through 8 games to win it all.

    Year 3 with Brady there is a MUCH greater comfort level playing with this set of team mates shared by the entire team. And so many of the younger players like Winfield and White and Edwards and Dean and Wirfs etc are better players now because they have more experience playing in this league. Not to mention that Jason Licht continues to draft valuable talent every year and has had 2 drafts since that Super Bowl win to increase the talent level of the team with young fresh legs….

    Its hard to win 12 games in an NFL season. But this team is SO talented and we’ve got the GOAT for 1 more year and he’s on a mission to win another Super Bowl. I sure wouldn’t bet against TB12. But at least you put your $ where your opinion is Vic…

  9. Aaron Says:

    Vegas tries to balance out sides – People love to bet overs and Tom Brady – Vegas bumped up that Win total by at least a game…at 10.5, I bet (no pun intended) that Vegas was looking at a 30% to 70% split at a min….11.5 makes it interesting.

  10. SPARKY Says:

    Just saw a video of Brady taking some batting practice. Take a guess who is shagging the balls. I would bet they are playing a little catch the football too.

  11. SC Bucs Fan Says:

    Per Twitter, TB took some batting practice today. With Gronk. Yeah, Gronk is going to retire…

  12. GOB Says:

    Why the hell does everyone here think Suh and Gronk are the keys to a Superbowl? Gronk doesn’t have a whole lot left in the tank, even when healthy. Suh’s play has steadily declined the past three seasons. Most here think he’s doubled all the time, which frees up rushers. He isn’t doubled the way he once was. Gronk is a freaking walking blue tent. Licht’s answer was drafting a developmental TE, and nothing in the FA market.

  13. GOB Says:

    Go sign Hicks and Brandon Phillips, or Sheldon Richardson. You’ll get the same or better production for half the price

  14. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    I guess we did get older…..because all the players aged a year…..but they gained a year’s experience.

    We lost Cappa, Whitehead…..(younger) haven’t signed McClendon, Suh, JPP, Minter, Pinion, Gronk (older)

    Next year we will probably get younger…….LVD, Brady, Gronk, Brate

    Don’t be surprised if we get younger at Kicker….this year.

  15. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    Also Gholston next year…..

  16. PSL Bob Says:

    Well, I’ll tell you one thing. 11-6, much less 10-7, won’t win you home field advantage for the playoffs. 10-7 might only see you in as a wild-card. We better hit at least 12 wins if we want the Bucs playing at Licht Field for all their playoff games. Remember, last year 13 wins didn’t even get it done.

  17. GOB Says:

    All this talk about home field, while the saints have kicked your ass the past two years. Focus on winning the division and guarantee a home playoff game.

  18. alton d green Says:

    I don’t blame anybody if they are pessimistic about the 1st four games. The Bucs are notorious for starting slow INCLUDING Tom!!!! But Tom is not your average bear. I can’t imagine the headaches he must cause Vegas hahahaha

  19. Bucsfan4ever Says:

    I’m thinking 12 wins or more. At least 3-1 start. Then 6-1.

  20. TJ Says:

    There is NO way we win 12. I Love Brady and the Bucs but the schedule is waaay waay too tough. Especially with a new HC in charge. 10-7 11-6 tops and a division/conference title. The under is Easy money from Vegas. Silver lining if I lose my money, its because we had a kick butt year!

  21. unbelievable Says:

    I agree.

    Unless JTS and the rookie have a pass rush explosion, this defense is gonna struggle.