Gamblers Unmoved By Todd Bowles

April 2nd, 2022

What’s the spread?

So the Bucs were a popular bet for some in Las Vegas to make a run at the Super Bowl. This was before Bucs Super Bowl-winning coach Bucco Bruce Arians announced he was stepping aside.

A day later, defensive coordinator Todd Bowles was named as Arians’ replacement. So what did the sharps in Vegas have to say about that? Not a thing.

Matt Severance of notes the odds were unchanged.

Tampa Bay is +800 at Caesars Sportsbook to win Super Bowl 57, +350 to win the NFC and -270 in the NFC South.

So why didn’t the Bucs’ odds sink at least some going from one of the better coaches in the NFL to a guy who had a rough four years in his previous head coaching gig? Severance notes that handicappers care more about players than coaches.

Are coaches/managers important to a team’s success? Sure they are, but to oddsmakers they are essentially irrelevant. Players matter in game results/spreads, not coaches. Sure, there could be an occasional slight exception if, say, Bill Belichick was away from the Patriots for a game, but this writer can’t remember a time when a coach/manager stepping down changed a team’s futures odds. The move to Bowles should increase the influence of Leftwich and Brady on game plans and play-calling.

This is very interesting to Joe. So if the Bucs went from — and Joe is just spitballing here — Arians to Lovie Smith or Matt Rhule, that odds would not have changed? That’s wild.

So the Bucs are at +800 to win the Super Bowl? That might be worth placing a few shekels on the next time Joe is in Sin City.

24 Responses to “Gamblers Unmoved By Todd Bowles”

  1. Joseph C Simmons Says:

    I’m sure that baked into those odds is the fact that a new head coach is the ONLY change. It’s not going to be a new offensive or defensive philosophy, the playbooks are staying the same, mostly same coaching staff, etc.

  2. SOEbuc Says:

    These Nattys talking about “Bowles got that job because his relationship to BA.” He got extended for three years after LV. This was the plan the entire time. And if Byron leaves next year, I vote Clyde Christiansen for OC. Good, close, coaching squad.


  3. Bucsfan4ever Says:

    Seeing as BA delegated most of the job to his staff anyway …..
    What would really change on the field?

  4. Bird Says:

    Cmon joes

    And i Love me some arians. He wasnt calling squat. He admitted this. This is why bowles or leftwich was going to be the successor . He wanted them to be the guy(s)

    He rode around in a golf cart. He carried around a star wars pack.
    He made game time decisions on down distance and time. Sure

    Hey i can make one too. On 4th and 1 …go for it.

    Saying lovie and those teams is like comparing 💩 to a 🍎

  5. Bird Says:

    And matt rules for one more year
    Its difficult to make sam darnold look real
    He will be gonzo

    Lovie will get 2 and then a fan layered in horse spit will start flying everywhere

    Do they know the fighting Illinois were just know as iIl under him (ill)

  6. bucschamp Says:

    sign Gronk and Suh and those odds will go up

  7. Buc4evr Says:

    Add Bowles step daughter’s boyfriend and the odds will really go up.

  8. Defense Rules Says:

    Interesting article Joe & some solid comments. Agree with Bucsfan4ever that very little will probably change in the way we do business on the field. BL & TB12 know how to put up 30-35 PPG with this offense & Coach TB is too smart to screw with that type of productivity. Our defense will be close to the same, and hopefully better, once we sign a couple more missing FAs & have a solid draft.

  9. 2022 Year of the GOAT Return Says:

    We need SUH, and a healthy JPP, if not we need lots of depth….

    We need experienced depth or talented depth on the OL ….

  10. Onetrickpony Says:

    Bowles ?
    We will see.

  11. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    Of course the odds held up because…….Arians was an incompetent, pompous, arrogant fool who assaulted his players….didn’t care about their injuries and kicked pro-bowlers off the team…..and ran off Tom Brady.


  12. Bucsfan4ever Says:

    Now watch Lovie Smith’s Tenants and Mat Ruhles Panthers face off in SB VIV…….

  13. Listnfrmafar Says:

    That’s because BA did nothing so no loss in value. Coaches can sure as heck change the outcome of a game, Charges coach calling TO against the Raiders, Haugbar going for it on 3rh down against GB, Sherman not squib kicking against KC and Toile Bowels all out blitz against the Rams. It would if been nice seeing a different face leading the Bucs this season. Just stay out of Brady’s way.

  14. Listnfrmafar Says:

    Ravens 4th down multiple times against GB. Freaking autofill

  15. Pruritus Ani Says:

    His winning percentage as a HC is Shiano, Smith (TB), and Morris.

    The defense was suspect last year, even before the injuries. We just barely beat Dallas and played too many other teams way too close.
    Then, there was the Rams game…

    Out of the two coaches, I think Leftwich would be better. However, because Bowles and Arians have been attached at the hip for so many years, this was his reward.
    It is what it is… Hope for the best

  16. Pruritus Ani Says:

    meant to say the winning percentage is less than Koetter but better than Schiano Smith and Morris..

  17. #8 Says:

    Hope to see some help on D-
    Rams & Bucs in an arms race-

  18. Listnfrmafar Says:

    Puritus, in Bowles defense (no pun intended), in the Dallas game Bucs had back to back turnovers inside Bucs 25, Rojo fumble and a screen pass that bounced right off Lenny’s hands into Diggs. Dean was Daks biache that game.

  19. Allbuccedup Says:

    As long as Bradys there Pew Wee Herman could be the head coach.

  20. Stanglassman Says:

    Brady wouldn’t believe that. The funny thing is Allbucced would argue with TB himself that’s it’s true. Some people need a great wt savor to make them feel comfortable.

  21. RPK Says:

    The line didn’t move because BA had no impact on whether the team won or lost.

    He literally did nothing. He admitted to this. He was semi-retired driving around on a golf cart all day.

    ALL OF HIS GLORY in Tampa is a result of Tom Brady, not elite coaching.

    BA couldn’t even get a W over the Saints when Sean Payton was out for the game and Taysom Hill was the starting QB LOL.

    Best coach in TB history?


  22. stpetebucsfan Says:

    I think something we’ve discussed but not given enough credit…

    This is as little “change” as possible in an NFL franchise leadership.

    First Bowles obviously knows ALL the players and coaches and has worked with this team for two years. Certainly it’s a huge increase in “power” for Bowles but the Bucs braintrust that actually puts things together literally hasn’t change a bit.
    Titles and responsibilities have certainly shifted but BA is leaving just cutting back.

    How unusual eh? An older dude who doesnt’ want to give up completely simply dials it back. Admittedly many folks don’t have this opportunity but many do.

    See Tiger Woods! See retired politicians who still hang around as political pundits because they miss the game but not the demands of actually running and fund raising. How many people fortunate enough to own their own business turn it over to their sons or daughters but still hang on in an advisory role and simply switch title. Still CEO perhaps but no longer President.

    This is very common which is why I wonder why people can’t simply accept BA’s explanation?

  23. Barry S Says:

    @joe it must suck living so far from a state where you can place said wager on your phone, I just rolled out of bed and put a hundo on the Bucs at +700!! Got the Rays at +800 as well!! Go Bucs and Go Rays!!

  24. Captain Dan Lawrence Says:

    Betters look at this much closer to the way I look at it than to the way Joe looks at it. Betters believe that Bruce leaving only helps Brady be all that he can be, and any drop off in coaching ability is countered by the possibility that Bruce Was interfering with the gameplay that Ton and Byron had concocted. Go BUCS!