Drafting An Edge Rusher Great For Long Run, Awful For Short Run
April 19th, 2022
Drafting a pass rusher.
Long-time readers know how much Joe values and covets a pass rush. Nothing, and Joe means nothing, shuts down an opponent’s passing attack like a damn strong pass rush.
The joke is that Joe has an erection for sacks. That may only partially be hyperbole.
Everything for the Bucs needs to be a full 110 percent focus on winning the Super Bowl this season. Nothing else matters. Nor should it.
Joe sees some folks begging for Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht to draft a pass rusher at No. 27 next week. Normally, Joe would have no issue with that, not even after Licht drafted Joe Tryon-Shoyinka last season with the team’s first round pick (No. 32).
So why does Joe have an issue this year?
Well, everything must be about 2022. And outside of dudes named “Bosa” rarely do rookie edge rushers make an impact. This is why Joe would much prefer a cornerback or a wide receiver over a defensive tackle or an edge rusher.
Let’s look at last year. Five pass rushers were selected before JTS — Jaelan Phillips, Kwity Paye, Payton Turner, Gregory Rousseau and Odafe Oweh.
Jaelan Phillips 8.5 sacks (not bad, that’s Bosa production.).
Kwity Paye four sacks.
Payton Turner one sack.
Gregory Rousseau four sacks.
Odafe Oweh five sacks.
So all the pass rushers drafted before JTS accounted for 22 sacks, an average of 4 1/2 per player. Phillips clearly had the best year and he was selected by the Dolphins at No. 18. (JTS had four sacks so only two rookie edge rushers had more. and he was the last pick in the first round.)
This is just an example of how banking on rookie edge rushers for a significant impact is a bad gamble.
In the long run, drafting a rusher in the first round is always smart. For immediate impact? Look elsewhere.
April 19th, 2022 at 4:01 am
Drafting a #4 WR or #5 CB won’t have an impact this year either unless their are a bunch of injuries.
April 19th, 2022 at 4:24 am
Couldn’t agree more with Joe. The great Warren Sapp only had 27 tackles and 3 sacks (not an edge rusher). To be fair Simeon Rice had 12.5 sacks as a rookie. So it does happen from time to time but not likely. Micah Parsons had 13 sacks last year as linebacker. I don’t see any Rices at #27 in this draft.
The only Edge that could be available #27 that I’d be happy selecting with our first rounder is;
George Karlaftis, Edge
Another Ryan Kerrigan. I remember when the Bucs passed on Kerrigan. Not holding out hope he’ll be there but some mocks have him slipping.
April 19th, 2022 at 4:31 am
Bucs Guy,
There may be a wide receiver at #27 that would immediately compete for the 3rd receiver spot which is a starter in our offense. That’s an immediate impact player! There may also be a cornerback that falls to us that could take over the #2 cornerback position by the end of the season. I’d call that an immediate impact player also. We’ll have to see how the draft plays out. I wouldn’t rule out either position.
April 19th, 2022 at 4:33 am
Like last year.
Looked like a MASH unit
April 19th, 2022 at 4:46 am
Bucs Guy: What if the Bucs got a 4.36 return man who is big enough that he wouldn’t fall down before anyone could tackle him?
“Watson has proved to be an elite kick returner and so offer dual role appeal”
April 19th, 2022 at 4:47 am
Last year we ran out of receivers.
Ran outa OL too.
Depth is good.
I see the Bandits won, but I couldn’t find it on TV.
I don’t think USFL is serious. I won’t try to watch it again.
April 19th, 2022 at 4:50 am
Yeah and if parsons lined up at edge rusher all season. How many would he have had? If there’s a good rusher. Always go with pass rush. You can get other talent later in the draft.
April 19th, 2022 at 4:56 am
Evo,
Micah Parsons was drafted at #12. We’re picking at #27 there will be no elite pass rushers at that spot in this weak draft class. Micah was exception not the rule.
April 19th, 2022 at 4:57 am
Sorry I mentioned the USFL Joe, I didn’t know you’d take away my posting for it.
Gimme back my posting and I won’t mention them again.
April 19th, 2022 at 5:33 am
Percentage of Defensive Snaps
1. Micah Parsons – Percentage of Defensive Snaps: 84% <—
2. Azeez Ojulari – Percentage of Defensive Snaps: 67% <—
3. Odafe Oweh – Percentage of Defensive Snaps: 65%
4. Jaelan Phillips – Percentage of Defensive Snaps: 54% <—
5. Gregory Rousseau – Percentage of Defensive Snaps: 49%
6. Kwity Paye – Percentage of Defensive Snaps: 49%
7. Joe Tyron – Percentage of Defensive Snaps: 49%
What could’ve Tyron done more playing time?
Excluding Payton Turner (Shoulder Injury Nov. 8th) 41% defensive snaps before injury.
April 19th, 2022 at 5:42 am
Let’s no pretend like…
-Brian Burns
-Maxx Crosby
-Montez Sweat (Before the injury news)
-Josh Allen
-Jeffery Simmons <–
…Aren't major contributors to their teams
Jeffery Simmons might not have the sack numbers but that kids a menace to opposing offensive linemen and running backs.
April 19th, 2022 at 5:44 am
Let’s not pretend like…
April 19th, 2022 at 7:09 am
Chris Olave! Work your magic Mr. Licht.
April 19th, 2022 at 7:49 am
Banking on a career backup, formerly undrafted practice squad player to be your starting LG is risky business if your entire teams’ success depends on Brady.
Plus the Bucs just invested 3 years $21 mill in Fournette.
Draft a Guard- there are 2 or 3 that will be available at 27 who will be instant starters.
April 19th, 2022 at 7:56 am
If this years draft turns out as bad as 2021 draft Brady will be playing for the Dolphins in 2023.
April 19th, 2022 at 9:01 am
Drafting a DT or OG is boring but a very solid choice……players that will likely start and play for years…..low gamble..
But a CB or WR would have the possibility of contributing right away….
I disagree that a CB @ 27 would be our 5th CB……should be at the very least our 3rd & possibly 2nd.
A WR at 27 should be our 2nd but would probably be our 4th…
I’m not worried about Godwin being out….my sense is that he will play week 1….
But, my worry is that we will lose one of the 3 Evans, Godwin Gage during the season…..you can never have enough WRs or CBs.
April 19th, 2022 at 9:01 am
He beats the drum daily for a pass rusher but then writes this article
April 19th, 2022 at 9:02 am
The Bucs have a draft board. It has players names on it regardless of position. It would be interesting to see if they had any WRs Burks or Olave ILB D. Lloyd over the positions of need like DT like Wyatt or G. Z. Johnson.
How heavily do they weigh the need part when the players are so close in talent. They always say trust your board. That’s got to be difficult to do in reality with so much pressure to get it right.
April 19th, 2022 at 9:19 am
Stanglassman,
I like the picks of Olave, Burks and Lloyd. I don’t think we have a chance at Olave though. As for Wyatt I’m not even sure he’s on the Bucs board because he has arrests for domestic violence against family and few he wasn’t arrested for. This leaves us with no DTs with first round grades to chose from at #27.
April 19th, 2022 at 9:43 am
I partially agree with TBBF.
Draft a CB or WR at 27. We are not going to fix the D THIS YEAR with a DT or a rookie at EDGE. A rookie at CB would be our #2 hopefully and give us depth. But same goes for WR – correct pick at 27 and we have more depth at WR, which proved our downfall with injuries. Then teams are not going to outscore us.
Really, we can get a solid CB in the 2nd Rd, draft a WR at 27, DT or EDGE in 3rd Rd.
April 19th, 2022 at 10:07 am
Whomever is saying we don’t need a DB/Wr early this year must’ve loved watching the pass defense last year.
April 19th, 2022 at 10:16 am
WR? Are u nuts?
Miller, Darden, Grayson, Johnson, Perriman, Godwin, Gage, Evans….
One is getting cut!
We dont need a WR this season at all!
We need an OG. A CB. A big DT/DE (Gholston clone)
I hope we trade back into the 2nd or 3rd.
Id be happy with just 5 picks this year.
1- 1st
2- 2nd round picks
2- 3rd round picks
For me? Forget 4th, 6th and 7th round picks.
I would trade those picks away every in order to pick up extra 2nd and 3rd round picks.
April 19th, 2022 at 10:21 am
If you draft a wr that takes the #3 spot from gage, why sign gage for 10 mil? I would think the obvious positions this won’t be in rd 1 is QB, WR, OT, S. Other than that, your guess is as good as mine.
April 19th, 2022 at 11:59 am
Edge rusher is behind interior DL in terms of need.
I’m confident we have 2 good starters, as I expect JTS to take the next step. Nelson is a decent backup rotational guy. Gill makes plays. It’s not a bad 4 at all. Of course, having another serious outside rusher wouldn’t be bad though.
We also need CB, SS, and ILB… ILB may be the most overlooked need, as David is still recovering from the Lisfranc injury, he’s getting a little older and has knee flare-ups… and Devin White seems to be more hype than production.
Edge rusher is just one of many needs on our defense.
April 19th, 2022 at 12:05 pm
I’m going with teacherman…they should be able to find a quality plug n play Guard at 27th overall.
April 19th, 2022 at 12:49 pm
All I can say is it will be interesting. I’d like a CB but guard would be fine.
April 20th, 2022 at 12:01 am
I wouldn’t mind if we traded back and piled up some mid round picks. Licht seemed to indicate the middle rounds are where the talent lies in this draft. Slide back and draft that hoss from UConn or a long and strong CB.
April 20th, 2022 at 12:45 pm
I hear you, but I plan on being a Bucs fan for another 50 or so years. Plus, you could argue that a rookie may not get production, but will soak up some reps and keep veterans fresh…
April 20th, 2022 at 7:55 pm
It’s a shame no one on the Bucs staff had the guts to shut down JPP when his injuries shut his production down last year. JTS could have learned by attrition and would have been so much better for it this year. Now the Bucs are in limbo whether JPP will be back and there’s this call for wasting a draft pick because people aren’t comfortable with JTS yet. Reminds me when the Bucs drafted Booger over Kearse. The positions are reversed but the end result may be the same