Football Outsiders: Forget The Future, Play For The Ring
March 9th, 2022
Bucs GM Jason Licht
A national football analyst has an idea what the Bucs should do after kicking the salary cap can down the road to craft a run like they’ve had the past two seasons.
Keep kicking.
That’s what Bryan Knowles of Football Outsiders believes. Knowles is of the mind that no one knows what the future will bring but we know about the now.
And now is the time for Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht to restock, reload (whatever verb he wants to use) and go for another Vince Lombardi Trophy. To hell with the salary cap.
Knowles typed this for BSPN as part of Football Outsiders’ “bold moves” for each NFL team.
Blow up the future.
The Buccaneers stand at a crossroads after Tom Brady’s retirement. They sit pretty much exactly at the salary-cap limit, with 25 pending free agents and no starting quarterback to speak of. The long-term strategy is to let most, if not all, of those free agents go. You promote your 2021 draft picks to starting roles, you build back up through the draft, you roll cap space into 2023 as you evaluate what you have, and you spend 2022 seeing whether Kyle Trask is a viable long-term answer. That might be enough to win a division in transition in 2022! There’s an opportunity here to both compete and rebuild at the same time! And if we write a “conservative moves for all 32 NFL teams” article, the Trask-and-build strategy will be highly recommended.
Tampa Bay’s other option is to destroy its finances for the middle of the decade in an attempt to win another Super Bowl right now. Simple restructures for Shaquil Barrett, Donovan Smith, Mike Evans and Lavonte David alone could free up $40 million of cap space, with $20-30 million more doable depending on just how deep the Buccaneers want to dig. That should give them more than enough room to re-sign Chris Godwin, Ryan Jensen, Carlton Davis, Alex Cappa and any other of their free agents they desired. And when you put that level of talent together, you can then entice an Aaron Rodgers, or a Russell Wilson, or a Deshaun Watson to try to force his way to your team. If it’s good enough for Brady, it’s good enough for them, right?
There are middle grounds between the two options, often ending with a Kirk Cousins-type under center for 2022. But the Buccaneers have the flexibility and the potential draw to remain top contenders next season despite their free-agent, salary-cap and quarterback situations. They just have to have the will to accept that the piper will have to be paid in the future; a problem for future Tampa Bay to worry about. It would cost the Buccaneers an arm and a leg to not only return their key starters but also draw a top-tier quarterback to the team, but it’s all worth it if the season ends with another Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Joe sort of understands Knowles’ suggestion. If Licht does what Knowles suggests, the Bucs will stink in three years. By then, Lavonte David will be gone along with several other players (Mike Evans will be 31 in three years). So that becomes a good time to rebuild and pay off the debts.
Basically, it comes down to this for Joe: If Tom Brady comes back, hell yes you keep kicking the can.
If Deshaun Watson can be acquired, you may want to slow down kicking the can.
If Kyle Trask is the quarterback, you are in a rebuild so you definitely want to pick up the can and put it in the recycle bin.
March 9th, 2022 at 9:05 am
I think they are going all in. Bruce Arians isn’t a spring chicken he didn’t come back to do a rebuild. Also as crazy as it sounds how many GM’s/coaches survive “rebuild” years. This is the nfl a couple crap seasons and you’re fired so I don’t think Licht has rebuild on the mind no matter how good he’s been for us this is still the NFL. Win or else.
March 9th, 2022 at 9:07 am
Wasn’t Brad Johnson a QB with so-so physical skills? Still led the Bucs to a SB win. He was a smart QB. Couldn’t Trask be just as good as Brad J.? Give him a few games (or a season), perhaps. Just wondering.
March 9th, 2022 at 9:09 am
Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson? How long ago was this quote?……
BS on the chasing another ring…..we had our shot with Brady & all starters and weren’t able to get it done….it’s time to be very smart with this team
Get younger, get leaner with the cap……hold onto our draft picks….give Trask a shot.
The worse that can happen is we get a better draft pick next year….without tanking.
March 9th, 2022 at 9:10 am
Do what you can do to saved the team!!!
March 9th, 2022 at 9:18 am
No one is going all in with Gabbert and semi retire Arians running the ship
March 9th, 2022 at 9:19 am
They should have been all in last season with Brady. Vonn Miller, OBJ, not taking Trask in the 2nd round.
March 9th, 2022 at 9:19 am
I would agree to keep kicking the can down the road if we have viable options at QB. Problem is the draft doesn’t have any good QB this year. Plus there really is not any good FA QB either. A lot of mid level players and all the really good and elite QB won’t be traded. This was probably the worst year for Brady to retire. They might not have much of a choice but to play Trask and just build the team around him. Worse case is if he sucks and you continue to build around him then in the future you just have to find a good QB because everything else is built.
March 9th, 2022 at 9:19 am
I would view Gronk signing with Buffalo as a signal that Brady is not coming back. OTOH, if the Bucs could get 10 wins out of Gabbert / Trask, they could save a ton of money
March 9th, 2022 at 9:23 am
You try to entice Brady to come back. Make some
Moves .
March 9th, 2022 at 9:23 am
I say either go with Trask, or Gabbert until he is ready.
We are not one QB away from being Super Bowl contenders, so why mortgage our future to sign a big name QB ?
About Arians not being here to lead a rebuild, that’s BS. He has an easy job that pays millions to ride around in a golf cart.
March 9th, 2022 at 9:25 am
It’s still shocking when a player still leaves at his best. Saw it with jordan. You never saw it though with some QBs. Manning and ben where shot. So was drew brees. Brady can still play.
March 9th, 2022 at 9:38 am
I’m pretty sure Arians would have retired if we were planning on going with Trask or Gabbert. My guess would be it may be a QB we haven’t even thought of yet. Most likely we’ll be going all in for this year as well.
March 9th, 2022 at 9:39 am
Has Gabbert won 10 games in his entire career? Any coach that puts their season on the line for him is playing for a top 5 draft pick. The NFC South sucks but the Bucs will average under 20 points a game with Gabbert. Saints defense will eat him up and so will Carolina’s. He has no experience leading a winning team.
March 9th, 2022 at 9:43 am
sell the farm like Denver? no thanks. Save The Licht House….sign our free agents!
March 9th, 2022 at 9:43 am
This team didn’t do squawk before Brady. This team as of now has no leader much less a QB. Trask could be the guy eventually so it makes no sense of kicking the can down the road.
March 9th, 2022 at 9:59 am
They sold their souls last offseason for a run at back-to-back Super Bowls. That moment and that team are basically gone with the amount of free agents this year. If they try to pretend going into this next season that they have the same team they will be doomed.
March 9th, 2022 at 10:06 am
Knowles … ‘but it’s all worth it IF the season ends with another Vince Lombardi Trophy’.
BSPN is just as delusional as many others seem to be right now. The Bucs have a shell of a team at present, and quite frankly it’s not THAT good of a shell to compete for another SB. As of today we have $2.1 mil in salary CAP space available with only 46 players signed. And there’s an excellent chance that at least 10-12 of those won’t make the team this year. Meaning that we’ll have to sign at least 20 FAs & draft picks to form our 53-man roster. And maybe more than that IF we release several players (very likely BTW).
You don’t TEAM BUILD by kicking any imaginary cans down the street. We had a very nice 2-year run THANKS TO TOM BRADY. He saw the writing on the wall (GOATs know things) and moved on. So will many of our UFAs because the grass really is greener on the other side of the fence.
March 9th, 2022 at 10:27 am
Go with Trask/Gabbert. You will probably only win the South Division, but at least you know what you have so you can go all in on a veteran QB next year (when the cap goes way up with the new TV contract) or draft a QB in the first by moving up/trading future picks. Don’t mortgage the next decade for one year. The last decade was painful and nobody wants to go through that again.
March 9th, 2022 at 11:33 am
Bryan Knowles: “You promote your 2021 draft picks to starting roles, you build back up through the draft, you roll cap space into 2023 as you evaluate what you have, and YOU SPEND 2022 SEEING WHETHER KYLE TRASK IS A VIABLE LONG-TERM ANSWER. THAT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO WIN A DIVISION IN TRANSITION IN 2022!”
Wow, surpised Joe allowed that to sneak in.
Remember, “Trask hasn’t taken a regular season snap! All other NFL quarterbacks have had many regular season snaps before their first regular season snap!” /s
March 9th, 2022 at 11:44 am
“Bucs Guy Says:
Go with Trask/Gabbert. At least you know what you have so you can go all in on a veteran QB next year or draft a QB in the first.”
What if Trask works out? Or is that not an option?
March 9th, 2022 at 11:55 am
Licht has said that he will not mortgage the future to win now. He has his career to thunk about. Trading away the future and not winning the Superbowl ends his career. Building on what you have within the confines of the salary cap is what smart managers do. We have enough talent to win the NFC South. Especially if Trask performs like he is capable of. I don’t want to cheer for a perennial loser 2 years from now because we gambled and lost. Model yoir franchise after successful teams like the Patriots and Steelers. Not one and done teams like the Rams and Chiefs.
March 9th, 2022 at 12:27 pm
The Brad Johnson, Bradshaw and Trent Dilfer plan only works if you have the top 3 defenses in football history. I think the rule changes even eliminated it from currently working. So please stop with the Trask could be the next Brad Johnson comparisons. That could make you a .500 team in todays NFL. Purgatory. Not good enough to make the playoffs and too good to get a franchise player in the draft.
March 9th, 2022 at 12:47 pm
When a drunken idiot tells you to go take out another $10k from the cash machine at the Bellagio, you do it bc any chance to mortgage the future to win today is a must-do move!
And if/when it fails we’ll all just be so content that we tried, right?
March 9th, 2022 at 1:20 pm
“Stanglassman Says: Please stop with the Trask could be the next Brad Johnson comparisons.”
You’re right. Trask will be much better. He played toe-to-toe against Joe Burrow of national champion LSU in 2019 in Death Valley and against Mac Jones of national champion Alabama in 2020 in the SEC Championship game – both of whom were on superior teams to Florida – and Trask came out with virtually identical QB stats as them. Of course, these are just facts, and they don’t hold a candle to your FSU jersey.
March 9th, 2022 at 1:54 pm
Why not trade for Kirk Cousins?
March 9th, 2022 at 4:52 pm
“Go all-in” for what? Without a Tom Brady level QB (and there are none of that level, frankly) completely mortgaging the future makes no sense given what’s happening.
Sure, you could restructure a bunch of the veterans, but do you have a SB winning team if that is done? No. It was a struggle getting this team even with Brady to play consistently. Injuries were a factor, but so was bad coaching, and mental checking out on the part of many. What fixes all of these things?
LUVMYBUCS, trading for Cousins would involve a similar cost as Rodgers/Wilson, or close. Multiple first rounds plus a mega salary.
March 9th, 2022 at 7:44 pm
The salary cap is set to explode over the next decade. Even if we restructure there will not be any issues in the future.
March 9th, 2022 at 8:12 pm
Well said Niles!
Kid got thrown to the wolves in the middle of a season in an offense that favored a running QB and all he did was SET RECORDS!!!!!!!!!!!!
He is just salivating for his chance!
March 9th, 2022 at 8:13 pm
You are welcome to call me and throw it ALL back at me if I am wrong LUV
March 9th, 2022 at 9:35 pm
Kudos to Joe for being environmentally friendly in the Trask scenario!