Tom Brady’s Projections

September 1st, 2021

Crazy play-action numbers.

Chatting with some Bucs fans last night, they are insulted that talking heads at BSPN believe Dak Prescott is a better quarterback than Tom Brady.

Over at NFL Network studios in Los Angeles, Even Cynthia Frelund’s laptop thinks ranking Prescott over Brady is nuts.

The network’s resident stat queen ran her numbers — Lord help her if she ever has to judge a player by watching games or film study — and her software tells her Brady this season is worth six wins.

Tom Brady
Rank 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 6.071 wins

Remember when there was a debate about whether Brady could still get the job done throwing deep? After some early struggles in 2020, he put that one to rest. His 9.3 air yards per attempt paced the league in 2020, as did his 89 deep passes (20 or more air yards). Brady posted his highest number of completions (31), yards (1,099) and touchdowns (9) on deep passes since NGS began tracking them in 2016. He improved throwing deep as the season went on, going 17 of 30 for 594 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception in Weeks 12-17. With a level of continuity on the coaching staff and roster that is rarely seen in the modern NFL, the forecast for Brady remains strong in 2021. Play-action could be an area of increased use and efficiency this season. In 2020, Brady used play-action on 18.4 percent of dropbacks, his lowest use rate in five seasons, but he earned a 127.0 passer rating on such attempts (second-best in the league) and netted 10.4 yards per attempt (most in the NFL).

The other two quarterbacks Frelund’s spreadsheets believe to be worth more wins than Brady? Pat Mahomes and drama queen Aaron Rodgers.

Yeah, Joe wonders why the Bucs don’t have Brady throw more play-action passes because he is so damn good at it. But the Bucs’ offensive coordinator claims he honestly doesn’t know.

Hopefully, Byron Leftwich can do some snooping around at One Buc Palace and find out why and start calling extra play-action passes for Brady.

28 Responses to “Tom Brady’s Projections”

  1. ModHairKen Says:

    Prescott and Mahomes have now been injured. Injuries are where the elite and the one hit wonders separate.

  2. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    Let’s turn some of those 1st down runs up the gut to play action… the success…

    We can establish the run by passing…..

  3. Razor Ramone Says:

    Brand new team, no off season, covid madness,bum knee, no fans. Arguably the most hurdles TB12 has ever faced right? No problem boys, we got this. Dak Prescott? Never won anything and never will. Only in this Bizarro world we currently inhabit. But I love it, keep feeding the beast.

  4. Thisisouryear!! Says:

    I was w joe when we got him. I thought he was too old. Man was I wrong. With his intelligence and the way he has made everyone better, he is the best. His arm is plenty strong. If you’re rating for just this season, he’s #1 on my list.

  5. Alanbucsfan Says:

    The better they run the ball, the more effective play action will be.
    Just keep on minimizing turnovers and penalties- the offense will be fine.

  6. SB~LV Says:

    Carni barkers

  7. AlabamaBucsFan Says:

    Football geeks just can’t get over Brady’s advanced age for an NFL player. They keep predicting his arm is going to fail. They forget that Brady takes care of his body like no one else in the league. It is just an insult that ESPN listed Brady as the 6th best QB.

  8. Winny Testaverde Says:

    Great final paragraph Joe…quality sarcasm & snark and so true. That is probably why Bowles is considered more of a head coach candidate than Leftwich. Leftwich has BA, Tom Moore and of course The Goat running things. Bowles has built this formidable 3-4 defense himself…and players are balling out.

  9. buc15 Says:

    Frelund has been hanging out with Hunter Biden I see

  10. JeffreyLane77 Says:

    Don’t forget play action can also be effective when your team is in the lead. The other team thinks your going to run the ball to run out the clock. Those two runs up the middle that didn’t quite get a first down. Play action will keep the chains moving in those short we need a first down situations. Play action has its place. Brady likes it because the dump off short yardage guy is a fast running back being covered by a linebacker who may be out of coverage position because of the run fake.

  11. BucsTommy Says:

    Tom isn’t a regular season guy, his numbers are great but not fantastic, this is for Manning, Rodgers, Wilson. But when it comes for post season he’s a monster, an unstoppable beast, that’s when he stop being a human being.

  12. Ben green Says:

    He isn’t vaccinated. This isn’t the NFL injury report that he’s screwing with. Brady thinks the rules don’t apply to him, because he eats avocado ice cream and drinks concussion water. If your season gets derailed, you have nobody to blame but Tommy boy, maybe Alex G.

  13. Ben green Says:

    Why aren’t you people talking about his status

  14. Buccaneer Bonzai Says:

    I’m actually fine with this. It seems to me that every year the media predicts a top passer, that passer comes up short.

    Brady will get it done…again.

  15. Buccaneer Bonzai Says:

    @Ben green

    While I do believe everyone should be vaccinated, it is currently up to the individuals…right or wrong. I personally believe the time will come when being vaccinated will be made into law.

    While in the United States, we currently have the right to refuse medical treatment, it is not a constitutional right. It is simply a law that was passed. So if a law was passed to force people to get vaccinated against an illness that bring harm to others, that’s that.

    I was hoping the American People had common sense and a touch of human decency…but that is clearly not the case. Hence…a law will have to be passed…or we all suffer.

  16. DavidBigBucFan99 Says:

    This here is proof positive that Bruce and Byron are lying that it’s Brady’s fault that there wasn’t more play action, because it wasn’t even part of the No Riskit No Biskit offense before it came here! This offense never did much of anything until Brady put his foot down during the biweek last year to change it to Less Riskit But Still More Biskit. Brady is the only reason we made it to the Super Bowl because no other QB could have changed Bruce Arrogance’s mental block about HIS offense, and so many say Bruce is a straight shooter.

    Last year I said to those who hated the Brady signing that he was worth at least FOUR wins just from the lack of turnovers that the ATM strapped us with, and what was our record???? 11-5 Thank you very much Mr. 7 Rings!!!!

  17. Pete Says:

    Remember thalidomide?

  18. PassingThru Says:

    @Ben green

    How do you know Brady’s vaccination status? There hasn’t been anything posted or printed anywhere.

  19. Rayjay1122 Says:

    IMHO – A. Rodgers is over rated. He is a fair weather QB. Not the guy you want during adversity. I will tame Brady all day everyday over Rodgers.

  20. Rayjay1122 Says:


  21. PassingThru Says:


    I remember thalidomide; in particular I remember thalidomide inhibiting the function of cyclin-dependent kinase (CDKs) which normally prevent the proliferation of cells with damaged chromosomes. In fact one driving forces of cancer is the breakdown of CDKs which prevent the cell cycle from completing in the event of chromosomal damage.

    That has nothing to do with an mRNA vaccine. It does nothing directly or indirectly to alter CDKs. Messenger RNA only provides a blueprint for your body to naturally produce a protein, but that blueprint and the mRNA itself is short-lived. In other words, it’s safe unlike pharma like thalidomide.

  22. Ben green Says:

    Wrong @Passing Thru. It was reported that he was vaccinated, because of the Vrabel thing. He tested positive. Brady and Jack were around Vrabel quite a bit. I don’t have info that he’s not vaccinated. But do you think he would put that junk in his body? The guy hasn’t drank a beer in like 15 years. Nevermind the avocado ice cream and concussion water.if Alex didn’t recommend it, he ain’t taking it. This is the guy who once claimed to have a pill that cured cancer. They believe in all kinds of wacky stuff. It’s part of the reason Brady ditched NE. Guerrero was telling lineman they shouldn’t do squats. Bill banished him from the lockeroom and made Brady hump up the hill to his institute. I just doubt very much he’s had it

  23. Ben green Says:

    I’m not an anti vaccine guy. If you’re vunerable and haven’t had the shot, you’re playing with fire

  24. PassingThru Says:

    @Ben green

    Rewrite that post, I’m having trouble parsing it. You stated that Brady wasn’t vaccinated in your first post, then stated that Brady was vaccinated in the second post. I’m lost.

  25. Ben green Says:

    They reported he was vaccinated, but I don’t buy it

  26. View from 132 Says:

    ESPN, NFL Network, all of them… their job is to get all fans – especially classic teams like Dallas – engaged for the entire regular season. They know the average fan, especially younger fans, are tired of Brady and love the new wave of QBs. So whatever… see you in January kids. How many years were you surprised to see New England at the end because some other team – the Baltimores, Peyton’s Colts, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees… etc – all take up air time all season? No different,

  27. PassingThru Says:

    @Ben green

    Well then you’re rather dull. The team is 100% vaccinated.

  28. Listnfrmafar Says:

    What has Dak ever done? Has he ever got Dallas to playoffs?