Foolish To Bet Against Mike Evans

September 6th, 2021

Bucs WR Mike Evans.

Over at BSPN, the four-letter decided to come up with some interesting prop bets for the 2021 season.

And if you can imagine, one stat nerd believes a good wager is to bet against Mike Evans.

Specifically, Scott Spratt says money spent wagering on Evans having fewer than nine touchdown catches is the way to go.

Evans has the greatest QB ever throwing him passes and might be the most natural touchdown scorer at his position with his 6-foot-5, 231-pound frame. But I still like the under on his touchdown prop. Evans scored 2.8 more touchdowns than expected by his opportunity-adjusted total last year, a top-10 surplus at his position. And despite his build, he has fallen short of his expected total in three of his six NFL seasons. Opportunity means more than skill in scoring touchdowns, and Evans will be hard-pressed to see the volume of targets to repeat his 2020 scoring success. When Evans and returning receivers Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown all played together, Evans saw just 7.0 targets per game, 36th at his position.

Well, first off, any time a statgeek uses the term “adjusted,” then the guy is using statistical hopscotch to bend numbers in order to prove a point or to find an answer before asking the question.

How about we use some common sense here?

Evans led the Bucs with 13 touchdown catches last year with a quarterback who he and the head coach claim didn’t know the playbook until after Thanksgiving. And the NFL will play one more game this season (17). And Evans will have at least 30 percent fewer touchdown catches in more games?

Yes, yes, yes. Joe understands Antonio Brown and a potentially healthy O.J. Howard may take touchdowns away from Evans, Joe gets that. But we must remember that Evans is a favorite red-zone target of park-violating, home-invading, NFLPA-ignoring, down-forgetting, handshake-stiffing, jet-ski-losing, biscuit-baking, tequila-shooting, smartphone-phobic, waffle-grilling, trophy-throwing, roller-coaster-scared, numbers-rules-peeved, helmet-tossing, football-punting Bucs-Super-Bowl-winning quarterback Tom Brady.

Additionally — and Joe likes to point this out because it is true — Spratt, being a stathead, doesn’t factor in that Evans wasn’t fully healthy last year. Already Evans said this is the best shape he’s been in since the Bucs drafted him.

If there is a prop bet with an over/under of Evans catching nine touchdown passes, Joe’s loading up on the over.

Joe thinks there is a word for folks who bet against Evans.


19 Responses to “Foolish To Bet Against Mike Evans”

  1. Jason Says:

    He doesn’t take into account the fact that TB12 will be throwing 7 TD’s per game.

  2. Casual Observer Says:

    Brady will take what the defense gives him. The touchdown distribution doesn’t matter at all. Only thing that matters is the number of Ws.

  3. Medicated Pete Says:

    Bet 75% of your assets on the under (before your soon to be ex wife & her attorney take it all anyway).

  4. BillyBucoff Says:

    Does anyone remember the hurt hammy plays last year where Mike obviously let up?
    You could add another 4 TDs last year if healthy.
    This is an easy over lol.
    I’m actually thinking closer to 20 than 10.

    Think Randy Moss type numbers, but with Godwin and Brown stealing yds.

  5. Kentucky Buc Says:

    Stat freaks. These guys are the worst. Evans will top last years totals IMO. Continuity is huge in the NFL. Especially with a Mind Meld guy like Brady playing QB.

  6. Hodad Says:

    I’m in a 16 man league where we do an auction draft. This allows you to bid on players rather than a draft order. Of course it’s tempting to want many of the Buc players, but that’s not realistic. My must have was Brady, and the Buc defense. I did also pick up A.B. rather cheaply in the later rounds. Let’s go Bucs, and good luck to all you fantasy G.M.’s.

  7. gp Says:

    Well, first off, any time a statgeek uses the term “adjusted,” then the guy is using statistical hopscotch to bend numbers in order to prove a point or to find an answer before asking the question. How about we use some common sense here?
    Kinda like when you hear the word “consensus” prattled about in mainstream media. Consensus between who?

    Common sense seems to be a lost art, or at least quickly headed that way.

    I get the difficulty of paying close attention to every player in the NFL but this is about just one, who has already broken a major league record.

    I guess, as stats go, he has a 50/50 chance of being right.

  8. Winny Testaverde Says:

    This is an interesting one. Brady fed Evans with several 1 yard TD passes last year…somewhat forced although it obviously worked out. Joe numero deuce predicted Evans 1000 years streak would end…and it nearly did until BA focused on getting him the record ( for 1000 yard seasons by a receiver to start a career ) in the final few games. Prop bets make things more interesting for some…

  9. Buxszntkt Says:

    I’m taking OJ Howard and the over , 10 tuddies on the year ! It’s OJ’s breakout year !

  10. Defense Rules Says:

    Joe thinks there is a word for folks who bet against Evans. “Fools.”

    Good summation of the whole article Joe.

  11. James Allen Lofton Says:

    My word be stronger than “Fools”.

  12. PSL Bob Says:

    gp – “prattled about?” Damn man! Where the hell did you go to school?

  13. Bird Says:

    Spratt does not take into account that he doesnt actually watch buc games

  14. Buczilla Says:

    Spratt is best off ignored just like the rest of his ilk. Unless it’s the Next Gen stats, it’s worthless.

  15. gp Says:

    Need a definition?

  16. Brad Says:

    I have never thought Evans is a too 5 guy. This is also the first time i can remember him not having hammy issues before the year. I actually think he will be top 5 this year. This is a dumb bet. You can bet a lot of other things.

  17. Joe Says:

    My word be stronger than “Fools”.

    Joe runs a family oriented site here. 🙂

  18. Mike Says:

    Joe, you need to adjust too. ME’ s TD will be cancelled out by a lot of TD after catch by Goodwin, AB, Gronk and Miller this year. TB is comfortable with the offense now, you can see the receivers got a lot of TDs before going down to the red zone.

  19. JeffreyLane77 Says:

    I could see Brady shy away from Evans in double coverage. But in the red zone? OJ Howard and Evans should be red zone targets. I think Evans gets 13tds this year.