Defending Champs 11-4-1 Against The Spread

September 6th, 2021

Joe often loves the intersection of gambling and reality on the field.

Take a look at the NFL’s modern tradition of the Super Bowl champion playing at home on opening night of the following season — a midweek game before the Sunday blitz of openers.

In those games over the past 15 years, the Super Bowl champ has a record of 11-4-1 against the spread.

That’s a tremendous mark when you consider the expections on the defending champ and the perception of its greatness.

The Bucs are a 7 1/2-point favorite on Thursday against the Cowboys.

Damn, that seems like a low number. But there is always a widely-held, hype-driven perception that the Cowboys are better than they really are. And that helps mold the point spread.

Joe invested in the Bucs when the spread was still 6 1/2, so Bucs fans will know why there are screams of ecstasy coming from world headquarters late Thursday (sorry, no cheerleader hot tub party).

Still, Joe wonders how Bucco Bruce Arians will handle his personnel if the Bucs have a signficant lead late in the game. With a 17-game schedule, those are the opportunities to rest key players.

If the Bucs yank Jason Pierre-Paul, Shaq Barrett and Lavonte David on a final Dallas drive, in favor of Anthony Nelson, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Kevin Minter — something that wouldn’t have happened last year — then Joe easily could see a late touchdown tightening up the score.

15 Responses to “Defending Champs 11-4-1 Against The Spread”

  1. Leighroy Says:

    Uh oh, someone is worried about the back-door cover!

  2. Swampbuc Says:

    As a Bucs fan for 45 years, I know better than to assume the Bucs will win ahead of time, especially in dominant fashion. I expect a close game, I expect the Cowboys to be up two scores at some point, and am hoping that Brady can work his comeback magic.

    The rush defense hasn’t looked good for a while — the Chiefs ran the ball well, they just inexplicably chose not to do it. Zeke will have a big game and that will set up their play action to their dynamite trio of WRs.

    In today’s NFL, every team is beatable. The Bucs never do well as favorites. The Cowboys can beat the Bucs.

  3. Jason Says:

    I would love to see Trask throw for 17 TD’s this year. All in the last 6 minutes of games.

  4. DoooshLaRue Says:

    I hear you loud and clear SwampBuc.

    Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

  5. dmatt Says:

    Let me get this right. We won three away playoff games which includes beating two elite future hof QBs. Then in the SB, we convincingly beat one of if not the best qb in football by not allowing him to score a touchdown. We r the first winning sb team to return all starters the following year. And, in the playoffs, collectively is when we begin to gel n hit on all cylinders. So, how is it the naysayers got the Rams defeating us in the 2022 playoffs. They lost their star running back for the season. They have a qb who has an awful playoff record n is one of the most injured proned players in the league. What am I missing, just a rhetorical question🤔

  6. Alvin Scissors Harper Says:

    Swampbuc, I hope your premonition about the Cowgirls going up by two scores is hogwash. My innards can’t take a week one game like that.

  7. Alanbucsfan Says:

    Tom Brady is 5-0 all time regular season vs Cowboys.
    Do you really think the Bucs will lose this game? That’s just Loserthink.

  8. alton d green Says:

    yes the Chiefs ran the ball well. What the Hell did i just say? Problem? You don’t count running the other direction hahahaha

  9. PassingThru Says:

    KC ran he ball well because the defense was primed against the pass. For good reason too as KC was behind 21-6 when the Chiefs started running. They stopped running because Tampa Bay wasn’t taking the bait.

  10. Stu Says:

    Duemig, years ago had a stat about teams that open as 7.5 point favorites and remain 7.5 Point favorites at kickoff, cover 80% of the time; don’t know if that is still true…

  11. Darin Says:

    Cmon Florida legalize it!

  12. SB Says:

    Montana is a weird state. I can sports gamble but I have to go to a registered gambling retailer. Closest one to me is almost a hundred miles away. Ironically I have to drive that far to get to a Walmart too so I will be shopping tomorrow. On the way home I am dropping by the Casino and laying $500 on the Bucs!!!!!

  13. LakelandSteve Says:

    This is the NFL. I would love for the Bucs to blow the cowgirls out but we have not seen this years version of the Bucs on the field when real bullets are being fired. They have said all the right things about this being a new season, new team, can’t take anything for granted, etc…. But these guys are human and the whole world is pretty much saying the Bucs are going to roll, they are going 17-0. They will beat the cowgirls easily. All of that is being heard by these players. It is hard to not become complacent, to go out and play like they are the underdogs. I expect a tight ball game at least in the first half. The Bucs usually make pretty good adjustments at half time especially our defense. So I wouldn’t necessarily believe all the hype until the go out there game after game and prove it.

  14. Buxszntkt Says:

    Forget it, the Seminoles have the government in their pocket. Pathetic really, legal in so many states and the casinos are keeping online gambling at Bay untill their cut is worked out.

  15. teacherman777 Says:

    The “most free” country on Earth, but we can’t some a joint and gamble?

    Then we are not the “most free” country on earth.

    Forced vaccines to keep your job?

    We are no longer even free.