Trend: Late Bye = Super Bowl Win

May 16th, 2021

Bucs coach Bucco Bruce Arians.

Regular readers know Joe is not a believer in coincidences. So when Joe sees a trend, it’s duly noted.

Now those who listen to the “Ira Kaufman Podcast,” you know Ira likes a bye week to come right in the middle of the season.

Joe has stated a late bye is better and that last year’s Week 13 bye week had a direct impact on the Bucs winning the Super Bowl.

Why? Joe is certain the Bucs, especially the defense, had fresher legs because of the late bye.

Now on Friday, Bucs coach Bucco Bruce Arians said he believes this year’s Week 9 bye week is just about perfect.

Recent history, however, doesn’t agree.

Beginning in 2017, the earliest the eventual Super Bowl champion had a bye come in Week 10. You can see the evidence below. Yeah, @NFL_Memes is mostly a satire account but CBS Sports confirmed this is accurate, and so did Joe.

Can the Bucs become the first team since 2016 to win a Super Bowl with a bye week earlier than Week 10?

Well, the last team to do it was quarterbacked by park-violating, home-invading, NFLPA-ignoring, down-forgetting, handshake-stiffing, jet-ski-losing, biscuit-baking, tequila-shooting, smartphone-phobic, waffle-grilling, trophy-throwing, roller-coaster-scared, numbers-rules-peeved, Bucs-Super-Bowl-winning quarterback Tom Brady.

The last team to have a bye in the first half of the season and go on to win the Super Bowl? That would be the 2012 Baltimore Crows. Baltimore had a bye in Week 8.

Interestingly, the Crows lost four of their final five regular season games, backing into the playoffs as a wild card.

17 Responses to “Trend: Late Bye = Super Bowl Win”

  1. Dude with new job Says:

    Let me put this very clear. This year the cycle begins again so the BYE in week 9 is the one that’s going to count. The BYE in week 14 is just destiny laughing at The Bellicheats

  2. DingleBerry Says:

    I’m torn on the Bye placement.

    On one hand, we’re coming off an extended season so an earlier Bye helps in that regard offering a chance to recover earlier from the extra wear and tear from last seasons Super Bowl run.

    On the other hand, later Bye weeks tend to result in more success and it worked out great for us last year.

    Here’s hoping we secure us a 1st round playoff bye as well to help us go for 2 and maybe even achieve the ultimate goal, perfection.

    Go Bucs! 20-0!

  3. August 1976 Buc Says:

    Another clear trend is “Brady being a starting QB” in 4 of last 5 SB’s played. So thankful he chose the Bucs. GO BUCS!!!!!

  4. DingleBerry Says:

    @August 1976 Buc

    I second that notion my dude! I’ve never understood Brady haters and I’ve always been in awe of his greatness even as a diehard Bucs fan who never in a million years thought he would leave New England to come play for us.

    I will never forget just how surreal it felt to see Tom Brady in a Bucs uniform in a live game for the first time last year.

    Pure magic. The undisputed GOAT is on our team and under contract for the next 3 years. Could we be the anti Bills and win 4 in a row? A man can dream!

  5. August 1976 Buc Says:

    lol anti Bills, Bucs go 4-0 in SB’s yeah sounds great to me.

    Thankyou Mr Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr The Bucs are LIVING the DREAM right now, 20-0 Baby in 2021 season!!!!!

    For those who do not like the 20-0 undefeated talk, that’s fine you. For me, I live in the The glass is half full side of life. Time to dream, life is to short to be living in the Glass is half empty side of life.

    BTW Joe just a suggestion lol adding to the moniker ” living legend” would be good lol lol lol
    Moniker Mania

    Again another clear trend I see is “Brady being the starting in 4 of the last 5 SB’s”

    Time to hoist the Lombardi again in February 2022″


  6. Rod Munch Says:

    If someone gets flexed into a 14th week by some COVID schedule mix up, and then that team goes on to win the SB, I’ll really start taking that seriously.

    However, week 9, is OK. I sort of like the late bye, if you’re making the playoffs, that’s a nice week off to recharge, or make new commercials for Popeyes or whatever players do that week.

  7. Tom in Mad City Says:

    Here’s the trend I took from the chart. Tom Brady has appeared in four of the last five Super Bowls and has won three of the four.

  8. Aceofaerospace Says:

    If you’re mathematically eliminated from the playoffs by week 14, it’s not goin to help.

  9. Chris l Says:

    Did it help? Maybe but by the time the playoffs come it doesn’t matter. Green Bay had a bye and lost to us from the 1st seed. Also we had a mini bye against Detroit in the second half. Also a bunch of players got put on the covid list and missed time. Vea came back. We had a bye before the super bowl. Yes some trend but all those champions you were looking at teams that dominated and did well all year and we’re all close to #1 seeds except us. Good teams win. This doesn’t mean anything . We need to look at the context of things more and not just numbers and trends without looking deeper. It also isn’t like the Bucs came out guns a blazing against the Vikings after their bye. We came back in epic fashion against the falcons. Like did it help in retrospect? Yes maybe? We won who cares. Teams have won before. This is such a non issue. If we got a bye in week 6 then maybe this can be talked about. How about the fact we get a bye after a big rivalry game where the hits are big? The saints games are always dogfights as we hate eachother. It comes at a great time. The sky is not falling. RELAX

  10. SB~LV Says:

    Coaching 101
    Leadership 101
    Positive spin

  11. bucfanforever Says:

    Maybe instead of resting starters in week 18, rest them in week 16 once they have everything basically wrapped up, give yourself a couple non-elimination games to get rolling.

  12. 6throundpick Says:

    There’s a bye up for sale! But ya have to win. Howzabout go winning that (playoff) bye?

  13. lambchop Says:

    The bye week this year is not that bad at all. Plus, we have good depth and we can rest some players towards the end if needed and we’ve already clinched. The best scenario is to work to get that first round bye.

  14. unbelievable Says:


    2017 isn’t that long ago.

    I think the most ideal time would be about 2 weeks later than what we have currently, but at least it’s not week 5 or 6.

    No excuses!

  15. RustyRhinos Says:

    A Winning Record with Our NFC South Division Championship, = Playoffs! And let the chase begin!

  16. BUCFAN4LIFE Says:

    I hate all of this speculation and talk of 20-0 . It’s a new Season and it starts with the Dallas Cowgirls and it’ll be “one game at a time” to try and climb that Mountain again . Like the saying goes , “On any given Sunday” . Nothing is a “given” . GO BUCS !!!!

  17. BUCFAN4LIFE Says:

    However I do believe we sit in the “catbirds seat” this coming Season .