Speedy Pass Rushing Project
April 1st, 2021
She doesn’t look like a stat geek.
When it comes to sports, there are two mottos Joe holds dear to his heart.
The first comes from Al Davis. “The other team’s quarterback must go down. And he must go down hard.”
The other is a Whitey Herzog motto. “Speed kills. You cannot substitute speed. You cannot teach a guy speed.” And that comes to mind when listening to NFL Network’s resident stat geek — she doesn’t look like a stat geek — Cynthia Frelund. A numbers girl, Frelund has a new mock draft of her own. Naturally being the numbers chick she is, her mock draft was strictly based on analytics.
For the Bucs at No. 32, Frelund has the Bucs picking freak athlete, defensive end Jayson Oweh of Penn State.
Oweh’s speed and versatility land him in Tampa, and the growth potential under defensive coordinator Todd Bowles proves this to be an insanely good fit.
Oweh is a total freak of nature. He’s 6-5, 257 pounds with 34.5-inch long arms. At Penn State’s Pro Day, he had a 39.5-inch vertical jump and ran a 4.36 40-yard dash. That is not a typo.
Didn’t Bucs coach Bucco Bruce Arians say this week he’s looking for speed on defense?
Daniel Jeremiah of NFL Network, a former NFL scout, believes Oweh is a crazy good athlete with rare skills but he’s an unfinished product. In other words, he’s a project. Jeremiah has him ranked No. 33 in his top-50.
Oweh is a long, lean-muscled edge rusher. He is more disruptive than productive on 2020 tape. As a pass rusher, he explodes out of his four-point stance and flashes an effective chop/rip and an occasional up/under move. However, there are too many snaps where he doesn’t have much of a plan. He does have the ability to bend at the top of his rush and collected a lot of QB hits on the tape I watched. He didn’t have any sacks to show for it in 2020, though. He plays too high against the run, but he uses his length to press out tackles and set the edge. He will get washed by down blocks when aligned inside. Overall, Oweh is an intriguing talent with his best football ahead of him.
Now who would you trust to develop a project? Joe would certainly trust defensive coordinator Todd Bowles and defensive line coach Kacy Rodgers. Those two cannot teach natural ability but they can teach football skills.
In 2019, his first full season of football at Penn State as a redshirt freshman, Oweh had 5 sacks in 11 games. Last year he had zero sacks in seven games, but as Jeremiah pointed out, he was always on top of the quarterback with quarterback hits.
Could it have been that Penn State, with Micah Parsons opting out, had opponents smart enough to move the quarterback away from Oweh since Penn State’s defense stunk?
Let’s just say Joe would be cool if the Bucs drafted this guy and let Bowles and Rodgers work their magic on him.
A 4.36u at 257 pounds?!@PennStateFball DE @JaysonOweh just did THAT. (via @PennStateOnBTN) pic.twitter.com/NF8XZ7uI1Q
— NFL (@NFL) March 25, 2021
April 1st, 2021 at 9:11 am
JPP and Suh are long in the tooth, and I don’t think we have anyone at the pipeline
April 1st, 2021 at 9:16 am
D-Line or LB in the 1st Rd. I guarantee it or your money back
April 1st, 2021 at 9:19 am
I saw Oweh mocked to the Bucs a few days ago. Seems 10x better at #32 than a back. Possible Elite Edge > Possible Elite RB.
Researching him, it sounds like he hasn’t played a lot of football yet, kinda like when ME13 was drafted. As long as they evaluate this guy as having the mental eagerness to put in the work to continually strive to get better and become the best, draft him if available.
April 1st, 2021 at 9:24 am
Not a bad idea. An OLB or DL at no. 32 sounds right.
April 1st, 2021 at 9:37 am
I’m on board with this absolutely.
April 1st, 2021 at 9:46 am
Interestingly some good NFL rushers didn’t have very productive college numbers. I believe Chandler Jones had very modest sack production. Danielle Hunter as well. If he’s motivated and can learn this guy could be something.
April 1st, 2021 at 9:47 am
Right position. Don’t know if if Oweh is the right selection. He has not played a lot of football even though he is a superior athlete. He is also very lean for his frame. He is JPP’s height at 6’5″ but plays at 250 which is 30lbs less than JPP.
He is intriguing given his athletic ability, and the only reason you take him is because the bucs can afford to develop him at the position.
I personally would like to see bucs grab Azeez Olujari in the first. I think he his a complete football player and finished product that shows up in big moments.
If not the first then Patrick Jones II in the second.
April 1st, 2021 at 9:48 am
Still find it crazy that we couldn’t get a pass rusher for over 10 years now we have 3 dudes with 8+ sacks last year and a player with 20 in 2019. What a turn around we have had with this regime! Love Arians, Jason, and the whole damn gang!
April 1st, 2021 at 9:50 am
Arians did say in his latest press conference that the Bucs will be looking to add speed in the draft, especially on the defensive side.
April 1st, 2021 at 9:50 am
4.36 wow he will be able to get shaqs gear in the locker room quick after practice!
April 1st, 2021 at 9:53 am
He’s 6-5, 257 pounds with 34.5-inch long arms and ran a 4.36 40-yard dash ?
Holy Sheet!
That’s exactly the type of player we need, so I hope he is stil there, when we pick.
April 1st, 2021 at 9:54 am
Mitch: I watched how Azeez Ojulari can bend around the edge, I’d love for the Bucs to draft him. He said he models his game after Shaq Barrett, one of the guys that’d be giving him tips.
April 1st, 2021 at 9:55 am
DL Nixon from Iowa has speed. And has appeared at no. 32 in some mocks. He was (surprisingly to me) the Big 10 defensive player of the year. The only knock on him is inconsistent play. Takes plays off. Probably Suh and others could cure that. Just another good possibility at no. 32.
April 1st, 2021 at 9:58 am
You get a lot more misses in the draft when you pick potential over production. That should be a lesson most Bucs fan have learned over the years. How many guys blow up during the combine and do nothing in the NFL? Give me production over potential any day
April 1st, 2021 at 10:00 am
If he is who they feel is best for the D line/LB crew at that pick when available, I’m all for it.
I like the kid from Texas better because he’s about the same type of athlete with more production in college.
April 1st, 2021 at 10:01 am
If Oweh does land in Tampa, I hope ol gal is right…”insanely good fit”
April 1st, 2021 at 10:10 am
Sounds like he will be a Raider with that kind of speed.
April 1st, 2021 at 10:16 am
He is a freak. No question
Is it looks like tarzan plays like jane?
0 sacks is a red flag
April 1st, 2021 at 10:23 am
Santa Claus is coming to towwwwnn.
April 1st, 2021 at 10:25 am
Bird, some of that is just bad luck and some of it is the qbs know he’s coming.
April 1st, 2021 at 10:26 am
He sounds like a late second or third rounder to me. There’s always guys with insane combine stats who can’t play. His defense stunk, he doesn’t have much production on tape. Go with more certain impact with the first rounder, gamble later.
April 1st, 2021 at 10:29 am
Her mock is pretty poopy.
April 1st, 2021 at 10:31 am
Joe in Michigan : Yes exactly, and he has an established tool kit of pass rush moves like the chop that Shaq is known for. Ojulari would also be a great fit in Todd Bowles scheme and as you said he can learn from the pro he modeled his game after.
The only knocks on him is his size and speed which both are both comparable to Shaq coming out of college.
April 1st, 2021 at 10:45 am
BucsFanFromWayBack Says:
April 1st, 2021 at 9:58 am
You get a lot more misses in the draft when you pick potential over production. That should be a lesson most Bucs fan have learned over the years. How many guys blow up during the combine and do nothing in the NFL? Give me production over potential any day
Just wait a ding dang minute here! Are you implying Keith McCants and Booker Reese were bad picks????
April 1st, 2021 at 10:47 am
He may end up being fantastic, but I remember Jason Licht a few years ago in an interview saying the Bucs need to see production to want to draft a prospect. I am not sure he fits in what they look for in a prospect.
April 1st, 2021 at 10:57 am
I wouldnt kick her outta my love shack, but without makeup she has manly features and giant calves. Wears some weird outfits too on the NFL Gameday crew show, I guess i am being a little picky
April 1st, 2021 at 10:58 am
MJ Stewart no picks in college translated to few picks in pros
April 1st, 2021 at 11:01 am
Frelund picked the bucs to lose three weeks in a row in the playoffs and called the bucs corners the 32nd ranked in the league. Her opinion shouldnt carry much weight.
April 1st, 2021 at 11:02 am
Workout Warrior
April 1st, 2021 at 11:08 am
Mitch: I think ran a 4.66 or around there. That’s fast enough, IMHO.
April 1st, 2021 at 11:24 am
0 sacks?
April 1st, 2021 at 11:28 am
Colin in Canada — spot on brother! She basically uses a glorified excel spreadsheet with some added whistles and bells that enhance the use of variables, but it is purely based on history. Nothing in it allows for change, no allowance for improvement of a young team or the decay of an old team. I thought she had a “momentum” piece she could use but apparently either zeroed it out for the Bucs, or I am wrong about the momentum adder.
She is a terrible prognosticator but she makes up for it by being hot. Even if a little horsey in the face.
April 1st, 2021 at 11:39 am
Hey Cynthia if a player averages zero sacks per year against college offensive linemen how many sacks does your model predict they will get against NFL linemen?
April 1st, 2021 at 12:01 pm
Collin in Canada. If she told us we would not understand, because it’s science.
April 1st, 2021 at 12:09 pm
Cynthia Frelund su¢is. The NFLN keeps trying to force her to happen
April 1st, 2021 at 12:21 pm
Unless they absolutely love some QB at 32, I think developing someone to replace Suh or JPP makes complete sense. Speaking of which, did Khalil Davis show enough to fill one of those spots?
April 1st, 2021 at 12:26 pm
Alstott – I wondered the same thing about Davis. He may be a sleeper. Very fast for a DL.
April 1st, 2021 at 12:28 pm
JAELEN PHILLIPS JAELEN PHILIPS JAELEN PHILIPS!!!!!!
April 1st, 2021 at 12:34 pm
What no LUV for Joe Tyron?
April 1st, 2021 at 12:40 pm
I woukd like a good de or oline pick.Michael clayton thinks we should pick a rb….which would just be dumb…
April 1st, 2021 at 1:08 pm
He reminds me of Noah Spence, which is not a good thing
April 1st, 2021 at 1:25 pm
I got two words: Tony Mandarich
April 1st, 2021 at 1:46 pm
i’d rather trade down…
GO BUCS!!!
April 1st, 2021 at 1:49 pm
Ask Wirfs what he thinks of the guy. He likely played against him at least once.
April 1st, 2021 at 2:00 pm
Bad production is a bad sign. Round 1 sounds high, even with his freakish athleticism.
April 1st, 2021 at 2:03 pm
4.36 edge guy? Now THAT is a freak…
Not sure if he’s a 4-3 edge, but a 3-4 OLB who drops into coverage occasionally would be interesting.
Not sure @ #32, though. But Licht DID say they are drafting for two years from now. That big, fast dude could be a freakin’ GUNNER on ST’s!
April 1st, 2021 at 2:42 pm
Anyone else see this guy beat Tristan Whirfs at the 1:17 mark in the highlight video?
April 1st, 2021 at 3:25 pm
No thank you. Performance matters. Look at what he did in the biggest games.
April 1st, 2021 at 4:00 pm
Noah Spence 2.0
April 1st, 2021 at 8:05 pm
Noah Spence ran a 4.80 at 251 pounds at the Combine. They might both be busts, time will tell, but Spence wishes he was the athlete that Oweh is.
April 2nd, 2021 at 1:40 am
Zero sacks in his last year scares the hell out of me, but Licht is on a roll so I’d be cool with it if we got this kid.
April 2nd, 2021 at 12:27 pm
I like it Get it Done thats exactly what we need a 3rd pass Rusher Put his 4.3 with Devin White 4.4 speed an We have DL an LB with faster 40s then DBs I thinks you put this kid Todd Bowles
April 2nd, 2021 at 3:37 pm
Instead of drafting this guy the Bucs should hire their strength coach because PSU has some crazy numbers.