When Will Tom Brady Turn Human?

February 16th, 2021

Defying human nature.

Maybe it is just Joe watching games through pewter and red glasses, but park-violating, home-invading, NFLPA-ignoring, down-forgetting, handshake-stiffing, jet-ski-losing, biscuit-baking, tequila-shooting, trophy-throwing Bucs Super Bowl-winning quarterback Tom Brady didn’t look anything like a 43-year old quarterback.

He looked like he could easily play two more years.

Hey, Brady said his goal is to play until 45. Who’s going to argue with him?

(Perhaps to help free up cash the Bucs will rework Brady’s contract and extend him through 2022?)

The reason Joe brings this up is that Football Outsiders has a list of 2020 awards. One is “Most Likely to Decline Next Year,” compiled by Vincent Verhei.

Take a wild guess who Football Outsiders picked? Yeah, Brady. And guess who Football Outsiders picked in 2019? Yeah, Brady. And the year before that. And the year before that. And the year before that.

This is the fifth year in a row Tom Brady has won this award. In the four years since his first win after the 2016 season, he has gone 47-17 in the regular season, throwing for over 17,000 yards and 125 touchdowns, ranking second (behind Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson, respectively) in both categories. He has thrown 20 more touchdowns and won nine more games, including two of his three Super Bowl appearances, in the postseason. And yet here he is again, being named most likely to decline with nearly triple the votes of the next-highest candidate. Why? Because Brady will be 44 years old by the time the 2021 season kicks off.

Here is a list of each of the 12 touchdowns in league history thrown by a quarterback age 44 or older. The last to do it was Vinny Testaverde, who threw a pair of touchdowns for Carolina in a 31-14 win over San Francisco in 2007. Testaverde had four touchdowns that season, while Steve DeBerg threw three touchdowns for the Dirty Bird Falcons in 1998 and George Blanda threw five for the Oakland Raiders in the 1970s. (Blanda’s last touchdown pass was thrown on his 45th birthday in 1972; Brady would need to come back in 2022 to break that record.) That’s it, that’s the list. Will Brady beat the numbers of Blanda, DeBerg, and Testaverde? Almost certainly. Will he match the 40 touchdowns he threw in 2020? Highly unlikely—but then, Brady has been doing highly unlikely things for two decades now.

Well, if you keep picking Brady to melt down, sooner or later you will be right. Maybe?

Joe doesn’t expect Brady to throw touchdowns for the Birmingham Bills in 2028.

47 Responses to “When Will Tom Brady Turn Human?”

  1. Bojim Says:

    Football Outsiders will be right…..eventually .

  2. Buddhaboy 19 Says:

    Its much like the leftists attempt to impeach Trump, in vain.

  3. Tampabuscsbro Says:

    Eventually. Granted all that matters is that he came here and at 43 won us the Lombardi Trophy.

    He could fall off a cliff next year and him being here will still be a success

  4. Alan Collingwood Says:

    Bojim is right. And if you play the powerball lottery every day for a billion years, you might get that right, too… eventually

  5. Chris@Apple Roof Cleaning Tampa Says:

    Brady may play as long as he wants before his arm strength declines. Unlike George Blanda, Tom Brady is a tall dude, with very long arms.
    Plus, Brady takes care of himself.

  6. Robert Says:

    If they can protect him he can play. That being said, I’d hate to see him face a TB defense with Devin White coming after him.

    They need to draft a QB THIS year! I could care less what round. Let TB evaluate him. He needs to be a sponge absorbing TB knowledge because I hate to think if TB goes down. The whole team goes down.

    I’d rather have Fitz than Gabbert.

  7. Ndog's brother Says:

    he’s done-stick a fork in him

  8. SKBucsfan Says:

    We, and the rest of the league now know you look for the hardest working QB in the room and take him.

  9. PSL Bob Says:

    Doubt he will break down next year, but…… It’s inevitable. That’s why the Bucs need to draft a QB in this year’s draft and hope that he would have at least one, and hopefully two, years to be mentored by Brady.

  10. Bird Says:


    These people have to make some predictions i guess
    How many years will they be wrong in a row about brady

    Brady will retire when he can no longer spin it
    Trust me. He will not hurt his brand to play garbage ball
    He has accomplished everything. And he has most / all records now? Since he beat brees to extend season.

    Dude was throwing 50 yard dime pieces this year. And can really drive a ball to receiver when he needs too.

    We buc fans have deserved him after years and years of gaudy football. The football gods are smiling down and gave us a championship. And no reason we cant make another run next year. We may lose some guys. But just think about guys who have not won a ring and need it to make their careers feel complete / and or get into HOF. Trust me. We will be loaded again next year with hopefully regular offseason to work on timing

  11. Bird Says:

    Nfl network was saying carolina is offering texans three #1 picks and mccafrey for deshaun watson.

    Man i hope texans keep deshaun. We dont need him in our division after finally getting rid of Brees

  12. Cainishere Says:

    Brady’s career has been nothing but winning. These people who make predictions as to a player’s production are just jokes. They rarely get it right, It is just like psychics “for entertainment purposes only” I take them with a grain of salt.

  13. Show Me the TDs Says:

    Ben Roethlisberger has my vote.

  14. Buxszntkt Says:

    Just have to double down on the bet each year, eventually it will pay off !

  15. I CARE NOW Says:

    Are we talking Drew and Manning type decline? Cause I mean, I am ok with him going out like that as a Buc when he is 50 plus.

  16. lambeau Says:

    Superhuman work ethic will attract free agents–good article by Mary Kay Cabot on Cleveland.com about the Browns pursuing Watt, but afraid of Brady.

  17. tbbucs3 Says:

    I feel like Brady will know when he’ll be done (Not anytime soon). But his version of “washed up” will be much more kinder than the way Drew Brees and Peyton Manning went out.

    Bradys version of being washed up will come through average play rather than the way Brees fell off a cliff.

  18. Cobraboy Says:

    Y’all just do NOT understand how this will play out.

    Brady gets #8 & #9 in Tampa, and then when he gets #10 in Jacksonville an alien spacecraft will hover over the stadium during the award ceremony and beam the Brady Bunch up.

  19. SlyPirate Says:

    Is this like “Free Beer Tomorrow”?

  20. Long time Brady fan says Says:

    If you can understand nature’s formula you can understand the why of longevity to Tom Brady’s career.

    Unimpeded electron flow = normal cell communication = normal cell behavior = health. Like any disease it is the impeded (blocked) electron flow = cell miscommunication = cell malfunction = disease.

    What is the unadvertised benefit of hydration, electrolytes and muscle plyability ie TB12 method that Tom Brady practices? Improved electron flow.

  21. I CARE NOW Says:


    I think you just nailed the decode. We are now at the start of a new 3 year delta. Dang, thats crazy for real. LMAO, fun times for sure!!!

  22. Beeej Says:

    Does anyone know how old Brady was before he changed his lifestyle and eating habits?

  23. Aceofaerospace Says:

    Chuck Norris said Brady is the GOAT and will never retire. The NFL will just cease to exist when Brady gets bored. I’m not arguing with him.

  24. PassingThru Says:

    A Super Bowl win should make you feel confident. I was confident that Brady could play for 2 to 3 more years.

    Back in 2014.

  25. Jmarkbuc Says:

    Brady and Elizabeth Hurley should have a kid… would live to be 110 and look great the whole time…

  26. sgrd0q Says:

    @Beeej – he changed his lifestyle and diet relatively early – age 27 or 28.

  27. Bird Says:


    I think it started when he married giselle
    His main Diet changed to clams and beaver

  28. JimmyJack Says:

    Alls that matters is he is coming back for next year and doesnt show a trace of sign hes slowing down.

    Im more afraid of an injury then a decline. He ripped up his knee(think it was a knee) years ago and cameback. If that happens at 44 I dont know how its possible he comeback…..although he does look superhuman so I wont rule it out.

  29. unbelievable Says:

    Hopefully not for anther 2 – 3 years.

    And buddaboy can continue to post his delusions the whole time.

    LOL Bird, calms and beaver indeed. Just not during the 2 weeks leading up to the SB.

  30. unbelievable Says:


  31. ClodHopper Says:

    “This is the fifth year in a row Tom Brady has won this award.”

    The year they finally get it right, theyll brag about getting it right.

    A friend I go disc golfing with always calls long shots. Every time its between 75-150 feet he says hes going to make it. The one percent of the time he makes it he says “Called it!” Same thing. Same exact thing!

  32. Oxycondoms Says:

    I could see next season being his last . I look for the bucs to break the bank in free agency and get creative. He isnt going out there and play just because he can the team has to have a real shot of winning. Arians might retire and bucs may lose more players after next season. What a way to go if he wears a creamsicle in next years super bowl

  33. Destinjohnny Says:

    Love this
    Keep betting against TB!
    We need him hungry

  34. Wesley Says:

    He’s got 2 more years in him.

  35. Oxycondoms Says:

    He wont play just because he can . After next season if arians leaves and some important pieces . I could see him retiring after next season. Brady wearing creamsicle in next years superbowl would be perfect ending to his career

  36. David Says:

    Um…. I put my money on the over for 40 touchdowns. They should be better with an off-season and everyone knowing the offenses identity now. It took them half the year to figure that out.
    And the offense is not losing anyone real relevant. Possibly AB and Fournette, but neither were huge contributors throughout the season.
    I expect Johnson & Miller at WR and Jones & Vaughn at RB to really step up.

    I honestly think they are fully capable of averaging 34-35 points per game.

  37. David Says:

    Also, I definitely see them extending his contract to another year so they can free up some space to help afford LVD, Shaq, and Godwin

  38. Infomeplease Says:

    TB has shown time and time again that he can do whatever he sets up his mind to do!!! What a great advocate for the practicing of positive mental attitude!!! Of course he does follow that up with a work ethic second to none!!! A two step formula for success!!!!!!

  39. Howard Cosell Says:

    Howard is reading Brady’s Mexican self-help books!
    Great, great stuff!

    Google Miguel Ruiz “The 4 Agreements”
    and “The 5 Levels of Attachment”

  40. Rod Munch Says:

    Football Outsiders, unlike the garbage PFF, are legit and generally have good takes on things. They are however stat driven, and what Brady is doing hasn’t been done by anyone else, so it breaks the stat model. In reading their recap you can see they’re throwing their arms up in the air and admitting defeat.

    Anyways I have no issues with them – to me all this shows is how much Brady is the exception to the rule. The more times he gets this stat driven ‘honor’, the more impressive it is that they’re wrong.

  41. SB~LV Says:

    I hope he is safe in Costa Rica

  42. 74 Bucs Fan Says:

    After watching the Doug Williams documentary last night, and reflecting on Steve Young’s Super Bowl wins, and Trent Dilfer’s Super Bowl win in Tampa, there is something so poetic about Brady coming HERE and winning a Super Bowl in our OWN stadium. We endured so much pain that we were rewarded with the greatest of gifts!

  43. Buczilla Says:

    Can we please pick up a talented qb to groom this year in the draft? Like the Joe’s have often said, what better time than now to start training a young guy with all of these coaches and Tom on the roster?

  44. Trey Long Says:

    The media cover the gamut from infantile incompetence to evil corruption. They’ve been predicting Brady’s demise since 2011.

  45. Jo_mama Says:

    No need to Draft a QB of the future.

    Ride or die with Brady.

    What’s more important a great prospect or a super bowl.

    How many Super Bowls did Andrew luck win?

  46. sgrd0q Says:

    The funny thing is people never really appreciated Brady for who he was. There has always been a current QB with a stronger arm or faster legs. Always. Even when Brady was young. He was always underrated but delivered. Nobody reads defenses as well as him and nobody is a better competitor and motivator than him. Quite extraordinary.

  47. NDOGSDAD Says:

    Where o where has my son gone