Playoff Probabilities Jump

October 21st, 2020

Odds spike

The seal-clubbing of the Packers really did a number on the Bucs’ chances of making the 2020 playoffs.

Per the numbers run by, the Bucs have a much better than 50/50 shot of making the playoffs. After shaming Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, the Bucs now hold a 71 percent chance of playing at least a meaningful game in January.

Additionally, Playoff Status has the Bucs with a 43 percent shot of making it past a first-round playoff game (assuming the Bucs don’t have a bye).

So it seems the Bucs were so dominant last weekend, even math people who have no pulse or heart were buoyed by their win.

15 Responses to “Playoff Probabilities Jump”

  1. Sport Says:

    The defense has been doing out job since last year. All the penalties in the Chicago game and we lost by one damn point.

    Frustrating for sure.

    But you know what, this team showed character and depth.

    We need ME and CG to continue getting healthy.

    Once again, when this team doesn’t beat itself, they can beat anyone!

    In BA I Trust!

  2. bucfanforever Says:



    Then L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L.

    4-12 (that was 2011)

    Of course, this Buccaneers team is 100x better than that one, and no longer have a mentally weak quarterback, and a defense that belongs in a different sport.

    Go Bucs!

  3. Defense Rules Says:

    Sunday was the best game our Bucs have played in probably 20 years … after the 1st quarter. Two INTs in a mere 3 plays ignited this team & crushed the Packers’ will; they never looked the same after that.

    And yet as dominant as the Bucs were, they didn’t play their ‘typical’ game, and certainly not the one called for by BA’s Bombs Away offensive philosophy. Instead the offense systematically exploited the Pack’s defensive weaknesses and took what the Pack’s defense gave them. That’s Patriots’ football & Tom Brady football, not BA football. Bucs ran on 60% of our plays … when’s the last time you ever saw the Bucs do that?

    Personally I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Raiders do exactly the same thing to us this coming Sunday; lots of rushing straight up the gut (Josh Jacobs is a load) with lots of short passes mixed in to keep us from blitzing excessively & to control the clock.

    o Raiders beat the Panthers in Game 1 by rushing on slightly over 50% of their plays (31 runs – 30 passes) & won the TOP.
    o Raiders beat the Saints in Game 2 by rushing on almost 50% of their plays (35 runs – 38 passes) & won the TOP handily.
    o Raiders lost to the Pats in Game 3 and only rushed on 39% of their plays (22 runs – 32 passes) & lost the TOP handily (and lost the TO battle 3-1 also).
    o Raiders lost to the Bills in Game 4 the same way, only rushing on 33% of their plays (and also lost the TO battle 2-0).
    o Raiders beat the Chiefs in Game 5 by returning to a more balanced game, rushing on 52% of their plays (35 runs – 31 passes) & once again won the TOP handily, keeping the high-flying Chiefs offense sitting on the bench.

    The Raiders have won their 3 games by using good old-fashioned smashmouth football & a very BALANCED ATTACK. It’s not all rushing & short passes though: Chucky isn’t afraid to throw deep. For instance, Carr went 2 for 5 passes deep in the Panthers win, 3 for 9 passes deep in the Saints win, and 5 for 8 passes deep in the Chiefs win (that’s hitting on almost 50% of his deep passes in their wins).

    There’s a lot of similarities between the 2 offenses. I expect a dogfight.
    As they say … ‘One game at a time’.

  4. '79 Defense Says:

    A win on Sunday and we’ll be at 5 dash 2 once again. –Bless you for that start (and that line) Sam Wyche. Unfortunately it didn’t get us to the playoffs in ’95.

  5. Topdoggie Says:

    Massive amounts of running plays are are symptom of being ahead. If you are playing from behind it’s impossible. Someone didn’t give that memo to BL until last Sunday. Cant believe he pulled the plug on ROJo at the bears.

  6. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    These projections & possibilities feel good….but we have to win the games….and that means Sunday.


    Exactly…..our #1 Defense needs to stop Jacobs cold…..a challenge, but if any team can it’s the Bucs.

    Short passing has usually killed us….but if Bowles tightens up coverage, I think we can succeed….our CBs & LBs have speed.

    Put LVD or White on Jacobs….the entire game.

  7. TAMPABAY55 Says:


    Raiders want to win via the run/smashmouth football. As we all know from the SB days, thats what Jon Gruden is all about. But I think when the game gets away from them, its hard maintain that philosophy. There will be plenty of opportunities to pick Derek Carr off. We have take advantage of those. If we do, this will be a W…… committing 0 penalties again won’t hurt our cause either.

  8. Cannon Says:

    Let the Raiders try and run the ball. No, seriously.

  9. Defense Rules Says:

    TBBF … Josh Jacobs strikes me as being Derrick Henry’s twin. He’s not nearly as big as Derrick (220 vs 247 lbs) but he’ll bring it right at ya (loved watching both of them when they were at Bama). Neither is easy to shut down.

    I’d love to know what Bowles did differently in the Packers game to strangle the short pass. Obviously Rodgers was under a lot of pressure for almost the entire game, but there has to be more to it than that IMO.

    TAMPABAY55 … Carr’s only thrown ONE INT all season, but he’s fumbled a bunch (FIVE times in 5 games … and lost all 5). Raiders as a team have fumbled 9 times in 5 games, and only recovered 2 of those. Bucs are pretty good at forcing fumbles (6 on the season) so that matchup could be interesting.

  10. ocala Says:

    Joe….. Has Cynthia Frelund moved the Bucs secondary up in her rankings?

    Last I saw she had the Bucs secondary ranked 32nd in the NFL.

  11. Buccaneer Bonzai Says:

    Gruden knows we expect him to run the ball, so he will try to find another way to beat us.

  12. Bucsfanman Says:

    One game at a time, just keep stacking ’em.
    If we play the way we did last Sunday we can beat anybody! We still have to play the game though.
    I’d love to see us punch Gruden’s Raiders in the mouth though! You KNOW he’s going to be hyped for this game!

  13. 813bucboi Says:

    we should the same game plan vs the raiders….

    defensively:stop the run,pressure carr and eliminate the big plays….

    offensively:run the ball, execute and eliminate penalties….

    GO BUCS!!!!!

  14. Cobraboy Says:

    I expect this game to be the toughest, most physical of the season so far.

  15. Mrs. Entertainment Says:

    Defense Rules — you need your own Bucs column. Your comments are more often than not, A+++.