Brady Not A “Turnover Machine”

September 17th, 2020

Looking at wrong numbers.

The history of Bucs coach Bucco Bruce Arians suggests quarterbacks in their first year with him are prone to picks.

Stat nerd and NFL Network numberscruncher Cynthia Frelund suggests this is a bogus line of thinking — when it comes to park-violating, home-invading, NFLPA-ignoring Bucs quarterback Tom Brady.

Despite Brady throwing two picks last week in New Orleans — the first one Mike Evans claims he caused — Frelund said there was a whole lot to like about Brady’s game against the slimy Saints than there was not to like.


Tom Brady’s two INTs prove he’s a turnover machine who’s not good anymore.

There are many reasons that this is a totally ridiculous assertion, in my humble opinion. Yes, he had a rough debut for the Bucs vs. the Saints, throwing two interceptions (including a pick-six) in a 34-23 loss, but one thing that doesn’t seem to be included in the hot takes I’ve heard coming out of that game is that New Orleans’ defense is better than some people estimated prior to Sunday. That’s an aside, though. As for insights on Brady, Next Gen Stats shows that he was far more effective vs. the Saints when he had a time to throw of 2.5-plus seconds. He had a passer rating of 61.4 and threw both of his INTs when he had less than 2.5 seconds to throw. When he had 2.5-plus seconds to throw, he passed for a touchdown, averaged 2.7 more yards per attempt (7.8 versus 5.1 when he had less than 2.5 seconds) and his passer rating was 101.9. Efficiency on quick passes has been a hallmark of Brady’s career to date, which leads me to believe this one game will go down as an anomaly that time and reps with his new teammates will cure. Further, both INTs occurred when the Saints dropped seven or more defenders into coverage, per NGS. Brady has a long track record of diagnosing and beating coverage, further cementing my belief that we’re witnessing a learning curve as opposed to a real trend.

Well, if you go by Frelund’s numbers, it is clear the Bucs absolutely must get some kind of a running game going. If the slimy Saints (and other teams) are dropping that many people into coverage, to Joe, that just screams for Leonard Fournette to go wilding on defenses.

A play-action pass is no more than wasted motion if a defense is not one bit concerned with your running game.

12 Responses to “Brady Not A “Turnover Machine””

  1. Cannon Says:

    The first interception was clearly on Mike Evans. The second was a bad decision by Brady… one that was caused by a collapsing pocket.

    The Saint’s defense is likely one of the stronger units in the NFL, and I think that they will achieve recognition over the course of the season.

  2. Joe Says:

    The second was a bad decision by Brady… one that was caused by a collapsing pocket.

    You know, Joe is going to give the second one to the Saints.

    On that pick, that was the fourth time the Bucs ran that pass. And that time the Saints were sitting on it.

    Some times, you have to tip your cap to the other guy. The Saints get paid to make plays too.

  3. El Buco Realisto Says:

    “Brady Not A “Turnover Machine”

    Yea, but ole stale biscuit is not a good coach anymore!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Not a winning season since 2015!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    go bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  4. Chris@Apple Roof Cleaning Tampa Says:

    Until we actually have a running game, teams will continue to blanket our receivers.
    Blanketed receivers, combined with a pass rush we have trouble stopping, is a sure recipe for a loss.

  5. Craig Says:

    If D. Smith can give up his dancing bear routine this week Brady will have over 2.5 seconds to throw the ball.

    I am not going to say anything bad about Wirfs and Cappa, Cam Jordon is a handful for anyone; a rookie is just fresh meat and Cappa helped as much as humanly possible.

    I would put that second interception on Leftwich. It was doom for Jameis and is still over played. The offensive playbook needs to be expanded some. Running just the 11 and 12 formations is going to make for a long season.

    One way out is to play two RBs at the same time. It gives you a decoy, an extra blocker, and all sorts of other things.

    I would put Auclair as the up back and roll it a few times.

  6. Sesteprenelicus Says:

    The second seemed more like a bad offensive scheme. Winston threw that same pick-6 many times, you’d think Arians and Leftwich would have learned something.

  7. Ed Says:

    Excuses,Excuses and more Excuses, blame it on Winston, Evans, fans and the noise. How about the Quarterback, he is the one who threw the ball, (Geez)

  8. Coburn Says:

    Feel like I’m second one he didn’t realize just how fast Watson is for a bit dude. I know in those routes safest thing is to err towards sidelines where the river will get it or no one will

  9. August 1976 Buc Says:

    Without the mistakes, the Bucs win the game against the Saints. Drew Brees was not lighting anything up. Under 100 yards in the first half. Brees first pass over 20 yards came on a loaf by J Dean. If the Bucs protect the ball and run the ball as they should be able to, they walk out of Nawlins a winner. The Saints are good but they did not look that great either. The bottom line is the Bucs did not protect the ball, and payed the price. Simple recipe for beating the The Teddy Panthers – protect the ball, run the ball, stout defense = party time around 4pm Sun 😀 GO BUCS!!!!!

  10. BucsFan Forever Says:

    In hindsight, Mike Evans injury must have limited him more than expected. One reception for 2 yards (yes, a TD) for our best receiver won’t work. He was limited in today’s practice, not a good sign for Sunday. We would expect the early games this year to be rough with no preseason but we’ll need Godwin, Miller and the TE’s to pickup the slack.

  11. unbelievable Says:

    Joe that same route was picked off half a dozen times last year as well.

    Defenses are reading it pre-snap sooner or later.

  12. Mike Johnson Says:

    Aren’t you people tired of hearing about the legacy of what Brady has done? You should be. Yes, he is the Goat. But this is a..what have you done for me lately league. he decided to stay and not ride off into the sunset which is what smart guys do. So he gets no pass from me whatsoever. Ruck up and perform or be rode out of town on a rail with all that money you stole from Tampa. batter up mr brady.