Stats Guru: Pick The Over

August 25th, 2020

“Jason, I will have my son hop to Biloxi to drop some cash on the over. How much you in for?”

A guy who monkeys with numbers for a living seems to think the Bucs will have a high number this year.

As in wins.

For the first season since former Bucs rock star general manager Mark Dominik and coach Raheem Morris ran the Bucs, per stats junkie Sheil Kapadia of The Athletic, the Bucs will win 10 (or more) games.

Additions at two key offensive positions, combined with a stout end-of-2019 defense that returns all starters, is too irresistible for Kapadia to not play the over 9.5 season-wins total for Tampa Bay.

What makes the Bucs’ over attractive is they can win in different ways. Maybe Tom Brady, with the help of top-tier wide receivers, looks a lot better than he did last season with the Patriots. Or maybe he plays at a similar level and still offers an upgrade because he doesn’t turn the ball over like Jameis Winston. But it might be just as likely the Buccaneers produce a top-five defense. They return a league-high 84 percent of their snaps, including one of the best front sevens in the league. There’s always a sense of uneasiness when going with the hyped team, but plenty of signs point to Tampa Bay being legit.

The only way the Bucs can get derailed from making the playoffs, in Joe’s eyes (short of injuries) is if the non-offseason thanks to The Sickness short-circuits the offense.

Of course, it helps that park-violating, home-invading, NFLPA-ignoring Bucs quarterback Tom Brady has an unreal work ethic, had players working out with him in the spring at Berkeley Prep, and seems to be an unofficial assistant coach.

9 Responses to “Stats Guru: Pick The Over”

  1. ocala Says:

    I agree. Brady is an enormous difference maker. As long as he stays healthy I think the floor for this team is 10 wins.

  2. yeah Says:

    11-5 or 12-4 sounds good to me.

  3. D-Rome Says:

    If the Bucs win less than 11 games or miss the playoffs then it’s time to clean house, starting with firing Jason Licht.

  4. All lives matter Says:

    How does park-violating, home-invading, NFLPA-ignoring represent anything good?

  5. geno711 Says:

    D-Rome Says:
    August 25th, 2020 at 9:47 am
    If the Bucs win less than 11 games or miss the playoffs then it’s time to clean house, starting with firing Jason Licht.

    Maybe a good point. We started the purge of a couple of guys tied in with the Bucs for some years with Dotson and Winston. Both here 5 or more years and when they left were not that desired. Tells you something there. If we are bad again this year maybe Licht will be next and non desired as well.

    I am hopeful that Licht has turned the corner and I see some evidence of that so I am happy with those deletions and additions he has made in the last 2-3 years.

    No problem with a fan base hoping/expecting 11 wins and a playoff team either.

  6. SB Says:

    Everyone had the ‘non off-season’ Joe
    Not everyone had the G.O.A.T. to combat it.

  7. Show me the TDs Says:

    Can you imagine if we had JW during this alleged Covid-19 pandemic? The Bucs Palace would have looked like Portland on a Saturday night!

  8. PSL Bob Says:

    Anything less than 10 wins this year is a bust IMO.

  9. Anonymous Says:

    Yeah, there are just 200000 Americans and millions around the world pretending to be dead from the virus Show me. Give me a damn break. This is thread is about football not your personal issue believing in facts