Heat Averse

August 12th, 2020

There’s actually a meaningful official NFL NextGen Stat that ranks Drew Brees and Matt Ryan ahead of Tom Brady.

How could this be?

By now, NFL fans are well aware of NextGen stats. They are technology-driven data generated via sensors in on-field equipment — not the subjective hatchlings of gamblers, obsessed stat nerds or the professional con men that fleece tens of thousands of fantasy football players and television networks.

This week, the folks at NextGen Stats merged three stats — “passer rating under pressure, completion percentage above expected under pressure, and completion percent under pressure” — to determine who the best NFL quarterbacks were last season when they faced significant pressure.

Drew Brees is ranked third, and Matt Ryan took the No. 7 spot. Tom Brady didn’t make the cut, neither did Saints backup and Bucs bust Jameis Winston.

Joe’s first reaction was Brady is not on the list because he is smart enough to sense a pass rush and ditch the football before he’s officially “under pressure.” However, Joe can’t go there logically because Drew Brees certainly is in the same league when it comes to those skills and hey, pressure is still part of the game, even if you know how to neutralize it at times.

Brady also is well known for hating pressure up the gut of the pocket, as is Brees.

The Bucs have significant talent along their offensive line, though Joe is skeptical of the coaching staff’s ability to get the most out of them. But Joe is not skeptical of Brady’s ability to get a message through to his line that they better protect him with everything they have if they want to keep their jobs.

As for the pressure stats, they just tell Joe that Brady, like most quarterbacks, will be average or worse if he’s got angry dudes breathing on him. It won’t lead to him throwing 30 picks, but it might lead to him feeling like a 43 year old, and the Bucs want no part of that.

29 Responses to “Heat Averse”

  1. 941bucsfan Says:

    Bucs fans have a built in excuse(covid) if we dont win

  2. BA4President Says:

    Very surprised to see some of the names on that list.

    Matthew Stafford
    Josh Allen
    Daniel Jones
    Kirk Cousins

    These guys all get pooped on by fans on a regular basis.

    I know stats can be an effective tool for deception, but I can’t get enough of them none the less. Fun facts based off of stats are my drug of choice.

  3. BA4President Says:

    Joe, I want to see an article with your thoughts on our away schedule and which other stadiums, besides Giants and Raiders, may end up not having fans. Are there any others out there? It would be cool to have only fans at home games and not away games haha

  4. BigHog Says:

    I would put Mr 5000 above DB or MR!!! Ask me why if you dare?

  5. Youngbucs Says:

    Big Hog why would we ask you this official nfl chip data. You think your opinions can dispute that y’all a delusional bunch I swear 🤷🏽‍♂️.

  6. SOEbuc Says:

    No Joe not the data. One thing Brady is GOAT at reading defense and looking off receiver’s. Jameis had the LASIK (that obviously didn’t work) and got 5,000 yards passing with our receiver’s and the big national media bandwagon biggest question other than Super Bowl is asking if our healthy (knock on wood) Tom will get to 4,000? Have you seen those accurate clean spiral videos bandwagon? An easy 4,000 passing yards.

  7. PSL Bob Says:

    Can’t believe Patrick Mahomes is not on the list. I guess it’s because he runs rather than passes most of the time when under pressure.

  8. Will Says:

    ^^^^^ Yes Brady is The GOAT and I’m happy he’s our QB and hope our line can keep him healthy on the field. However SOEbuc gotta correct us unless in reading your post wrong. Jameis had Lasik after the season and threw for 5000yds.

  9. 813bucboi Says:

    these are all starting QBs…

    why are folks talking about a 3rd string qb?….

    GO BUCS!!!!

  10. SB Says:

    ” Saints backup and Bucs bust Jameis Winston.”

    Hallelujah!! No more ” America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston”!!

  11. SB Says:

    But Joe…………Some people dont think a First overall pick in the draft that isn’t starting anymore = ‘bust’

  12. Eddie Says:

    Those are last year stats with a different team. Mean absolutely nothing for THIS YEAR WITH THIS TEAM!

  13. Evolvingbucsfan Says:

    @941 but if we win you know other teams will have an excuse too(covid). I wonder who wins this years SB might have an asterisk next to it?

  14. bucsfan951 Says:

    the way brady manipulates the pocket will be totally different than what weve seen in years past. lets not get it twisted. the bucs o line isnt the best but our past qb didnt have the greatest pocket awareness. so many times i would yell “climb the damn pocket” at the tv when he would bail out of the pocket. the way qbs like brady slides around to avoid pressure, its something that is awesome to see! toss in that brady will read coverages better, faster, and actually look off defenders to get a receiver open.

    its a great day to be a bucs fan!

  15. BigHog Says:

    ^^^no need to worry it won’t be NE12!!!

  16. SOEbuc Says:

    Will…Thank you. Good catch. But you can still obviously see where Im going. Old school basketball googly goggles Jameis.

  17. Youngbucs Says:

    Go watch the videos on Brady manipulating the pocket. Manning Drew and Tom some of the best I’ve seen non athletic working the pockets.

  18. Will Says:

    SOEbucs no problem and yes I can “see” where you’re going with it. Right now Brady gives this team the best chance of doing something great. I was a Jameis fan and hoped things would click. They didn’t and the team moved on we’ve got to get a backup that can learn from Brady and be ready to take over later. I’m curious if that guy is already on the roster? Griffin has been around for a while coaches have to see something in him.

  19. BigHog Says:

    Nothing special about manipulating the pocket …seen it done by Mr 5000 to many times out of the fear of life! Getting the ball down field is the name of this game !! Manipulating the pocket gets no points put on the board!!! Check out the game where Vita V scored his touchdown…there are throws from Mr 5000 that NE12 can’t make now and I dare say couldn’t make in the past!!

  20. JHoss Says:

    I think there can be more to this stat than meets the eye.

    Brady is typically extremely quick to get the ball out. If there is a guy open, he will usually find them immediately. That being said, if he is holding the ball and that puts him “under pressure” according to this stat it could just mean nobody was getting open. Most of these other guys (Tannehill, Stafford, Carr) may take more time to get through their progressions find the open man, resulting in pressure before they hit the receiver. For Brady, I am thinking there was just nothing there.

    I don’t think this will be a problem with the Bucs weapons.

    Some of the other guys are more mobile and just built to avoid a rush. (Dak, Allen, Jackson)

    As far as Brees being ranked so high, I think he typically has strong weapons out of the backfield to dump it off to when under pressure. Kamara ain’t no slouch! and neither was Mark Ingram.

  21. Kalind Says:

    Kirky at 5 tells you everything you need to know about how valuable this list is.

  22. bucsfan951 Says:

    BIG HOG says “Manipulating the pocket gets no points put on the board!!!”

    yes, avoiding pressure to give your receivers enough time to finish their routes never puts points on the board smh

    “there are throws from Mr 5000 that NE12 can’t make now and I dare say couldn’t make in the past!!”

    you mean to tell me an nfl qb made an nfl throw? no way!!! again, smh

    question is, did me make that throw while eating his w fingers or did he google how to make that throw?

  23. SOEbuc Says:

    Lol Will. Yes. SEE.

  24. Rod Munch Says:

    So the stat rewards dumping off the ball for 3 yards on 3rd and 18. Too bad Mike Glennon didn’t qualify, he’d have been 1st on this list.

  25. Wesley Says:

    Carr at #3 wtf?

  26. BigHog Says:

    bucsfan951: Mr 5000 can and does make big time NLF type throws on the field!!! SB: as a team the BUCS were a bust or = to it!!!

  27. bucsfan951 Says:

    big hog

    oh, theres no doubt he can make big time nfl throws. he also makes pop warner like mistakes as well!

    pretty sure high school qbs dont even throw 7 pick 6’s in a season.

    so mr 5k in all reality threw for 5k yards, 26 tds and 30 ints

    not very good when you give the ball away more than you score but who am i? its not like i am a business owner and know numbers and production of my company and my guys…

  28. SB Says:

    BigHog Says:
    August 12th, 2020 at 2:41 pm
    bucsfan951: Mr 5000 can and does make big time NLF type throws on the field!!! SB: as a team the BUCS were a bust or = to it!!!


    So he is making big throws while holding a clipboard? Sure.

  29. Ftmyersbuc Says:

    As soon as I didn’t see Patrick mahomes on this list I know it’s garbage stats. You know what Brady did have better than almost all of those QBs…WINS, you know the only thing that matters