Most Improved

July 24th, 2020

She doesn’t look like a stat geek.

So what player will make the biggest jump from 2019 to 2020? It is a subject discussed on the next Ira Kaufman Podcast, publishing later today.

It is also a subject taken on by a noted stat geek employed by the league’s house organs, and NFL Network.

Cynthia Frelund, who would stick out at an analytics seminar the same way Rachel Watson would at a hot dog eating contest, dabbles with numbers and she thinks she has figured out who will be the most improved player for the Bucs.

And that would be 43-year old park-violating, home-invading, NFLPA-ignoring quarterback Tom Brady.

Yeah, the same guy who has six rings.

The Pats signal-caller did not have his most efficient season in 2019; NGS shows that he only completed 37.4 percent of passes when he was under pressure (third-lowest in the NFL among those with 200-plus pass attempts), a considerable drop from his mark over the three prior seasons (52.1%). Brady’s 67.4 passer rating to targets aligned wide in 2019 was the lowest rating among those with 200-plus passes in the NFL last season (with only five touchdowns against six interceptions). Now, PFF does show that Brady’s receivers dropped 34 passes (fifth-most in the NFL) last season. With his superior arsenal of weapons in Tampa Bay, Brady’s production forecasts to significantly improve. One additional area my model feels strongly about: Last season, Brady only had the seventh-highest passer rating on deep passes (107.6, per NGS) among those with 50-plus deep attempts. My model forecasts this number to rank no lower than fifth in 2020.

Well, when Joe read that stat about how Brady’s numbers plummeted when he was pressured, that tells Joe the Bucs might want to put Donovan Smith in his own personal bubble so he can practice and stay healthy and be ready for games this fall.

Joe is thinking about going to bed with a rosary tonight, so Brady can stay in one piece through February.

14 Responses to “Most Improved”

  1. gp Says:

    GMFB had someone predict that Brady will throw 55 touchdowns this season

    Sounds like a good prediction poll to put up

    I think its entirely possible
    I also think that part of the game plan this season will be to point the hell out of our opponents to give the secondary a chance to come up to speed by the end of the season

  2. DoooshLaRue Says:

    He’s still 42 Joe.

    Facts man, facts!

  3. Buczilla Says:

    Nerds don’t get any hotter than Cynthia Frelund.

  4. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    I hope Brady is the most improved because that would mean victories…..but my suspicion is that Devin White may win the honor….and, he was pretty good last year, so improvement would make him a monster.

  5. AlabamaBucsFan Says:

    Brady did not have his favorite TE and Brady’s receivers dropping 34 passes did not help.

  6. Beeej Says:

    We need to hire a private plane to fly Donovan around the country, anything that dude needs to feel safe

  7. Joe Says:

    He’s still 42 Joe.

    Not when the season starts. Joe doesn’t give a flip how many passes he completes in underwear football on a high school turf field in the middle of June. It is the games that Joe is concerned with.

  8. Onebucdaddy Says:

    Please drop the podcast so I can listen on my way to work!

  9. LUVMYBUCS Says:


    II’ll give her the slight edge over Danica McKellar.

  10. stpetebucsfan Says:

    First thing to go in an aging athlete are his legs. Brady doesn’t use his legs…he’s no Jackson or Mahomes or even an Aaron Rodgers and he never has been.

    His arm and accuracy are still strong enough to get the job done. Combine getting the job done with 4-5 Pro Bowl level talents and I can see why she thinks Brady will blow up.

  11. SB Says:

    July 24th, 2020 at 1:04 pm

    II’ll give her the slight edge over Danica McKellar.


    Still wouldn’t even come close to Colleen Wolfe!!!

  12. SB Says:

    Also Great to see you LUV!!!!!!!!!!!!
    I would call you but your number changes as much as my wife’s mind.

  13. LUVMYBUCS Says:


    Ooooooo Lol

  14. Buczilla Says:


    Coleen Wolfe is gorgeous, but is she a nerd?