Elite Deep Ball Thrower In 2019

May 27th, 2020

The NFL’s unbiased tracking technology in balls and players’ uniforms has spoken.

And it says Tom Brady was truly an elite deep-ball thrower last season while America’s Quarterback, Saints backup Jameis Winston, was not.

Joe likes the NFL NextGen stats because they don’t bring the human bias and error found among the popular stats outfits.

You can read the math metrics at NFL.com, but Joe will make it simpler. After the best deep ball throwers’ data was compiled and ranked, only Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes, respectively, scored better than Brady last year. Nick Shook typed up the relevant stats and commentary on the tracked throws that traveled 20 yards or more down field.

No. 4 – Tom Brady

Comp pct: 38.9. Expected comp pct: 31.4. Difference: +7.5 percentage points.
TD-to-INT ratio: 7:2. Passer rating: 107.6.

Now this one flies in the face of doubters who claim Brady doesn’t have it anymore. Brady was the league’s fourth-best deep passer in 2019. He threw for seven touchdowns — against only two interceptions — on deep balls. He did so with Julian Edelman as his top target, and appeared to have done so out of necessity more than anything. His time to throw (3.24 seconds on average) was faster than just two of the quarterbacks left on this list (Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Ryan), his pressure rate was higher than anyone else on this list (40.7 percent) and his open-target percentage was third-lowest on this list behind only Prescott and Wilson. Brady’s best deep-passing game came in a Week 1 obliteration of the Steelers, and two of his three best deep completions went to Phillip Dorsett, whom most everyone left in the abyss when complaining about Brady’s targets. The other productive hookup went to Josh Gordon, who didn’t last even half of a season with the Patriots.

So with more pressure in his face than most and a revolving cast of characters at receiver, Brady still posted the fourth-best expectation difference. Not bad for a 42-year-old.

The data should help explain why Brady is drooling at the thought of playing with the Bucs’ deep pool of stud pass catchers. It’s a huge upgrade for him — and he can still make the deep throws extremely well.

Finishing the top-10 list, in order, was Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Ryan and Baker Mayfield.

23 Responses to “Elite Deep Ball Thrower In 2019”

  1. JP09 Says:

    There’s no way this data is accurate, it suggest Tom Brady is a better QB than the last guy we had….

  2. Aceofaerospace Says:


  3. Youngbucs Says:

    These aren’t fabricated stats you can’t ask for much more. I like it even better for evaluating WRs separation etc.

  4. Bucsfanman Says:

    It’s a conspiracy!!! The GOAT?! Top 5 in long balls?! And pressured “the most”?!
    Check yo’ sheet!

  5. 2020 Year of the GOAT Says:

    yeah baby…. cant wait for the season to start……

  6. ocala Says:

    I’m with you Joe. I like NextGen stats because you do not have bias reporting in it.

    Watch Brady’s games from last year. He still has a very strong arm.

    I will be very surprised if Brady is not one of the top 5 QB’s in the NFL this year.

  7. Swampbuc Says:

    Seems like most of Winston’s 30 picks were to LBs and DBs underneath. I don’t remember too many of his bombs being picked off.

  8. ToesOnTheLine!!! Says:

    I will say America’s Real QB, Tom Brady, sure didn’t look like he still had a great deep ball throw in the few games I watched last season, but outside of Edelman I guess one could argue Brady was forced to throw to mostly rookies, retreads, rehabers, and reclamation projects at WR. In fairness I seem to recall he had a few good deep throws to Brown in the one game. Maybe TB12 will be lethal like he was with Moss once he, ME13, and Godwin all get used to each other?

  9. Hawk Says:

    Yes, Swampbuc. Most of Winston’s picks were on short/medium throws, which means it wasn’t arm accuracy, but reading (defenses) accuracy.
    I still believe that Winston’s problem is that the game hasn’t slowed down for him. *If* that ever happens, he will be a holy terror on the rest of the league. If it doesn’t, he will be thrown in with Ryan Leaf.

  10. Bird Says:

    So he cant chuck it 60-70 yards anymore In the air

    50 – 60 yards is just fine

  11. Knuckle Sandwich Delivery Service Says:


    A good amount of them were thrown where neither the WR or DB could catch the ball. So that could be why.

  12. JimmyJack Says:

    I didn’t think Brady would want to come here because Bruce’s QBs take a lot of hits.

    But once he signed and put that doubt to rest it was very obvisous that he came here because he will get to run a vertical high powered offense. He just wasn’t getting that in N.E. and he’s probably got something to proove to try and do it here. And call me crazy but I bet it’s a lot more fun to play QB when you are constantly looking to take deep shots downfield.

    I don’t really get why everybody thinks he will want to be running the same offense he had in N.E.? I’m sure he will want his checkdowns avialable and will use more based off how he reads the play……But the plan is defientally going to be to put some air under the ball. And this is probably why he didn’t end up in San Fran or Tennessee or somewhere else.

  13. Craig Says:

    107.6 QBR on long balls. Holy Guacamole, our old QB never got close to that at any time.

    I still remember why DJax got pissed. Jameis couldn’t hit him at all. It was like he closed his eyes and chucked it.

    This is going to be awesome.

  14. BringBucsBack Says:

    And there is ole Fitzmajic doing what the FSU QB can do but, better and for less money, arrogance, shenanigans, stupidity & draft capital.

    I just love that we got rid of the perfect back-up QB so as not to hurt the fee-fees of the #1 pick man-child, after being given a position for four years in the league. I’d sure feel much more comfortable with Fitz as the back-up than Blaine.

  15. REDZONE BA Fan Says:

    BA’s offense with Brady will be same since Tompa accepted that teaching a new offense to him was easier than teaching Tompa’s offense to the entire Buc’s offense. AND – Tompa is excited that the shackles are off to chuck the rock long to studs like ME13 and Godwin. Geez, what could go wrong? GOAT QB, Pro-Bowl WR’s and TE’s and solid Oline. new RB ????

    Nothing really…. Brady has the arm, just has to stay healthy!

    The wildcard is that Brady is 43yr with quick release and powerful arm, but not mobile.

    Maybe JW “HAD to be mobile” because he mis-read open receivers too late, or there was no WR separation, or past Oline collapsed, or our opposing D’s were really freaking good. Pick JW’s sin or situation, the dude extended plays with his mobility. That option is GONE with Brady. And yes, the INT’s are gone too. CHECK!

    The mobility trade-off is that the Bucs’ team feels better about their chances with Brady at QB, and will play harder with GOAT under center.

    Net – NFL South has superior D-Rush talent than the weak AFC North. Brady decision-making & quick release will mitigate pass rush to some degree, except during long-developing plays that break down resulting in more massive hits to an immobile Brady than he ever absorbed in NE.

    Season hinges on Brady’s health, and he will protect himself, first. BA offense is not kind to QB health and designed for young mobile QB’s. Will be super-interested to see Brady run BA’s offense. The dude has every tool, except mobility.

  16. Kevin Says:

    Thank you tom Brady for coming here.you will make the bucs great again…… return to glory

  17. Kevin Says:

    Witness in 2020 the greatest nfl story ever told . Thank you tom!

  18. Dreambig Says:

    Imagine any of our receivers or tight ends actually being hit with the ball in stride instead of having to leap 12 feet in the air! That alone will be huge!

  19. REDZONE BA Fan Says:

    In addition to total wins, NFC south is key standing is key to play-offs. Brees is still a stud. Panthers are rebuilding under new coach. And Falcons – can never get’er done. Going to be Brees-Brady stand-off for the division.

    Bucs/Saints are 2 of top 6 NFC teams. Have my popcorn ready for Bucs prime-time games!

  20. REDZONE BA Fan Says:

    Dreambig Says: May 27th, 2020 at 10:44 pm

    Imagine any of our receivers or tight ends actually being hit with the ball in stride instead of having to leap 12 feet in the air! That alone will be huge!

    in 5 yrs, saw lots of bumbled passes right in the breadbasket to our studs. Not to mention that early in JW’s career, he successfully passed to WR’s who are no longer in the NFL. Brady will inherit Pro-bowl talent. Just sayin…..

  21. adam from ny Says:

    djax prolly wants to come back to tampa now 🙂

  22. adam from ny Says:

    oh man… if we had fitzy and brady we’d be all set

  23. adam from ny Says:

    get fitzie in here…somehow…some way…