The Draft Crapshoot
April 15th, 2020
Hall of Fame general manager Bill Polian likes to say on his SiriusXM NFL Radio show, “Late Hits,” that the first round of the draft is a crapshoot.
He points out often how nailing a first-round pick is a 50/50 shot and, of course, the odds dip steeply after that.
Former Jets and Dolphins general manager Mike Tannebaum notes that through the first 15 years of this century, it’s actually worse than Polian says, at least among skill position players on offense.
Tannebaum, now a BSPN talking head, had the four-letter’s researchers did up the following: your chances of blowing a pick at a skill position are greater than nailing a first-round pick.
From ‘00-‘15, 44% of 1st rd picks have signed a 2nd contract to the team that drafted them. Of those:
40% (17/42)- QB’s re-signed
39% (16/41)- RB’s re-signed
39% (7/18)- TE’s re-signed
29% (19/66)- WR’s re-signed, lowest % of all positions(Via ESPN’s Roster Management System)
— Mike Tannenbaum (@RealTannenbaum) April 12, 2020
Check that out man! Receivers in the first-round have a 71 percent bust rate! That’s incredible. Now Joe has no idea if that is because many receivers are too diva-ish or not.
Now Bucs coach Bucco Bruce Arians has long said in today’s college football, which is filled with spread offenses, if a coach drafts an offensive lineman in the first round he is drafting the guy for the next coach.
Tannebaum’s information does not support that notion, at least not with centers and guards. In fact, per Tannebaum and BSPN, offensive linemen (not counting tackles) drafted in the first round in the first 15 years of this century have a better than 50/50 shot at making it to a second contract with the team that drafted them.
According to ESPN’s Roster Management System, during 2000- 2015, OC and OG have been the most reliable 1st round drafts picks as they’ve signed the highest amount of 2nd contracts w their draft team:
100% (8/8) OC’s and
60% (9/15) OG’s have re-signed to their drafting team— Mike Tannenbaum (@RealTannenbaum) April 13, 2020
Tannebaum did not Twitter out the bust rates for tackles. And this “BSPN Roster Management System” must be an in-house thing because Joe sure can’t find it (but can find tons of references for it).
April 15th, 2020 at 8:05 am
All im hoping for is that we never have a 2016 repeat lol
April 15th, 2020 at 8:23 am
First round – OT.
April 15th, 2020 at 8:25 am
“Old school BA is still in the 90s
The self proclaimed QB whisperer thinks he knows it all
Every QB that played for him was better AFTER BA was fired or left
History repeats itself. This facade marriage between BA and our Old Goat will not end well. After the first disagreement TB will go straight to Bryan Glazer (Kraft Jr)”
Kobe “not if but when” Faker
April 15th, 2020 at 8:36 am
There is a reason Tannenbum is at BSPN and has the tittle of “Former GM” fired twice … enough said!!
April 15th, 2020 at 8:45 am
I’m not as glued to the top four although Bechton and Wirfs…have the possibility to be generational.
But if one is not available at #14 I’m all for trading back and picking up one later in the first.
Ezra Cleveland from Boise State is 6-6 311 and others like him will be available later. I think since we’re talking RT and not LT…we have a greater margin of error.
I’m from the Bobby Beathard school however…unless you find a slam dunk, cant miss..generational player trade back and double your chances in the 50-50 crapshoot.
April 15th, 2020 at 8:47 am
Resigned could be a somewhat misleading stat……a player could be asking too much and end up signing for another team…..what about trades?….
It may not change the percentage much but I’d like to see those numbers.
It’s also possible that players not resigned went on to have respectable careers elsewhere……JW may end up being one of them.
April 15th, 2020 at 8:52 am
So if a player doesn’t resign he is a bust? What was the production given? Some players are solid starters but the team implodes and the franchise enters rebuilding mode. Other teams end up in salary cap hell. For example, I wouldn’t call Jalen Ramsey a bust.
April 15th, 2020 at 9:26 am
Tampabaybucfan agreed. According to this Odell Beckham is a bust? That’s just wrong.
I’m sure it does represent that WRs actually do bust more then other positions but saying it’s 71% is basically a lie.
April 15th, 2020 at 9:47 am
The numbers are deceiving since only 5% of all 1st rd picks are line …plus where are the other 290 draft picks.. since 480 should have been drafted in that time and they only list 180 picks. very flawed stats
April 15th, 2020 at 10:04 am
IF a guy goes to another team for a boatload of money and has a terrific run with them fine.
But JW is the perfect example. If he NEVER sniffs at least a conference championship game he should be viewed as a bust…whether he resigns or not.
I do not think the number of guys who didn’t resign but still had great careers is significant. I haven’t done the research so I’m speaking out of my butt…just “seems” that way.
April 15th, 2020 at 11:47 am
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bucs grab an OT in the first that they wouldn’t double dip & go with a OT in 2nd. If Dobbins was available in 2nd I would grab him ahead of OT.
April 15th, 2020 at 4:08 pm
I would think part of that you’d have to factor in ones that were good but wanted too much money n their team couldn’t afford them. Although I would assume that would be a very low percentage being if they were that good the team would come up with the cap space
April 15th, 2020 at 7:38 pm
Bucs fans need to read this because most of them are under the impression that the majority of GMs hit on all of their picks.