Take The Over

March 29th, 2020

Provided Las Vegas is open again before the football season kicks off. And provided there is a football season, Bill Enright of SI.com believes smart gamblers will take the over on the Bucs.

That’s in win totals.

Enright is such a big believer in Tom Brady coming to the Bucs, that he believes Brady himself can turn the Bucs from an OK team into a legit Super Bowl contender.

The news of Brady signing in Tampa Bay sent the sportsbooks into a frenzy. The Buccaneers opened the offseason with 60-to-1 odds to win the Super Bowl and skyrocketed to 14-to-1 after Brady signed. Their win total also jumped up by two games. With the Packers, Chiefs, Vikings, and Saints, all of which made the playoffs in 2019, traveling to Tampa Bay in 2020, the Bucs must improve their 2-6 home record from a year ago. With Brady now at the helm, that’s certainly a realistic expectation. According to William Hill, 67% of the total number of tickets for the Buccaneers’ win total has come in on the over.

The Play: Lay the odds at -135 and take the over.

The sportsbook William Hill currently has the Bucs at nine wins for the season. With an extra playoff berth this fall (if there is a season), nine wins should get the Bucs into the playoffs.

Of course, JoeBucsFan.com readers that reside in forward-thinking states can make this wager from the comfort of their cell phones at home while being locked down thanks to the corona.

Florida? Nah, let’s go to the beach and spread the corona! Gambling, bad. Death-inducing virus, good.

26 Responses to “Take The Over”

  1. AlteredEgo Says: Your comment is awaiting moderation. Says:

    Are there odd there will not be a NFL season in 2020….I want to make that bet !
    This Covid-19 is just beginning

  2. Chris Cotten Says:


  3. stpetebucsfan Says:

    I’m the son of a bookie so you’re preaching to the choir here. When it comes to personal choices and freedoms that do not harm others I move from my normal progressive views to a staunch libertarian.

    So as a very young child in the 50’s I grew up watching workning men who took great pleasure out of sports…mostly baseball back then and playing the ponies.
    They could bet a quarter and dream of a long shot coming home. It relaxed them from the daily grind. My father’s book was in the back of a tavern…there must have been over 100 taverns with books in the back. And then they closed Newport Ky down and my father had to totally adapt. Moving to his apartment and getting several guys to call in bets from Ford…GE..and Proctor and Gamble.

    Was it all innocent fun and games? Of course not there were some who fell by the wayside to addiction but they were a distinct minority.

    Then I went through the same thing with weed for most of my years…under the table, until very recently.

    There is a huge difference though. Joe will really love this. The Govt regulated gambling so they were the only game in town along with dogs and small parlors. Meanwhile in the name of funding education and avoiding taxes to do it..the Gov’t gave us the lottery…the most lacking in entertainment and possibility of some control over their wagers. They could actually “handicap” their choices and use their brains and data to make their decision. Can anybody tell me how you handicap the Lottery? OTOH Weed has actually improved under Gov’t regs..prices…transparency…now I take months at a time off to enjoy the clear feeling of being straight…but when I’m ready to return I no longer have to fear price gouging and garbage product. Wouldn’t you know though..my luck..I went on the wagon before the Virus shutdown. LMAO

    I’ll take the over at -135.

  4. ModHairKen Says:

    Jameis and Gay directly cost them 4 games total, at least. But, Hargreaves made that career play on the goal line, so I’d say the Bucs should have net 3 more wins. Which would mean Jameis would still be here and be wealthier.

    Unless the defense is worse, Brady plays worse than Jameis, and someone didn’t burn those glowing neon yellow shoes that Gay wore when he blew that kick against the Giants, you’d have to figure there will be more wins.

  5. AKickInTheBucNuts Says:

    At least we will be able to see what a rested defense can do late in the 4th quarter.

  6. TheBradyBunch Says:

    If they had a kicker they would have finished 9-7 last year. If they go 9-7 this year that would be a huge disappointment. They need 11 or more wins in order for this to be considered a success.

  7. TheBradyBunch Says:

    AKickintheBuc – fake news. Bucs won the time
    Of possession against their opponents last year.

  8. Bucnjim5656 Says:

    The line will probably move to 10-6 and stay there which is reasonable. Not sure what the last sentence was about. This is tourist season so 90% of all beach goers are not Floridians. A good percentage are from out of the country. Plus there is also the fact that every single virus is death inducing to the elderly and those lacking proper immune systems.

  9. geno711 Says:

    I am a Brady fan so I am pretty high on the Bucs this year.

    A lot of the National media suggests that the Buc’s will be better than New England this year and I am sure hopeful.

    My biggest concern is what Joe stated here. The over under in Vegas for Wins is 9 for us and 9.5 for New England. Those Vegas sports books don’t lose much money and their lines are typically better than the rest of ours.

    Hoping for the over.

  10. JP09 Says:

    If they could’ve finished 9-7 last year with a “kicker”, imagine what they could’ve done with a quarterback…..

  11. Adrnagy Says:

    I read and I want to Vomit

    Best example of a two face fan.
    What about the “other years”?

    geno711 Says:
    March 29th, 2020 at 10:46 am
    I am a Brady fan so I am pretty high on the Bucs this year.

  12. Adrnagy Says:

    Every year I’m pretty high on my bucs regardless.

    New generation feels a need “splash” to feel high on their team …

  13. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    9 wins should have been our total last year so it’s no stretch to achieve 9 this year…..take the over…

  14. Bucnjim5656 Says:

    Cool story! I struggle with gambling addiction had to quit 5 years ago, but still love the big three horse racing especially the Derby. So much goes into handicapping these horses it really makes fun. Plus some of these trifecta’s and superfecta’s can bring in large amounts of money.

  15. WestChap Says:

    I was optimistic 4 of the last 5 years… exactly, I’m a hopeless Bucs fan. Only Koetter’s last year was I convinced we were doomed from the start. Let’s see how the success to optimism ratio looks after 2 years with Brady and this DL!

  16. james west Says:

    12-4 at least 13-3 at best, NFCS division champs, book it, if we are lucky enough to have a season, maybe we will get an abbreviated season maybe 10-12 games, hopefully we will get thru this pandemic if the good lord is willing, go bucs

  17. Destinjohnny Says:

    If we get a legit back and right tackle and a veteran safety…
    We could make some noise

  18. Alvin Scissors Harper Says:

    Yep, that should be an easy over, provided Brady stays upright.

  19. Bucsfan951 Says:

    St Pete. I enjoyed reading what your wrote 👍🏽

  20. Matt Says:

    Destinjohnny-Agreed brother! If we come out of the draft with 2 solid linemen and a receiving RB our win total over/under jumps to 10.5 or 11 easily. I still see some restructuring of deals and big free agent signings as we approach and complete the draft with some surprising cap casualties.

    I’m really pulling for Justin Evans this year like I was pulling for Noah Spence last year. Shaq Barrett ended up being our wild card last year and maybe a player already on our team Evans will be it for us this year. We know what we have with Whitehead, he’s a great tackler and decent in coverage and he’s best closer to the line of scrimmage. But Edwards did not take great angles (hopefully Rookie mistakes) and was an ok tackler in the open field and is not ready to be a starter. Adams is a serviceable backup but not an impactful starter. At this point getting a healthy Justin Evans would be like getting another 1st round draft pick this year. He was really coming on strong before his injury what a shame. Evans is the Derrick Henry Eraser! 😂💪

    Would definitely love to see us grab a QB and WR somewhere in there because this will be a great environment for rapid development.

  21. stpetebucsfan Says:


    I have cousins who still LOVE The Racing Form and handicapping…I totally get that.

    What moved me from any desire of gambling was when my father taught me the way TRUE professional horse players made their money…aside of course from being the bookie because the house always wins in the end.

    Guys who made a living at the horses worked at it as hard as guys playing the stock market with all their analysis. These guys were at River Downs every morning at daybreak when the horses got their workouts. They met with jockeys…trainers…agents..they’d bring coffee and donuts to groom these guys as friends. They knew if there were rumors of “boatrides” fixed races and stayed away from them.

    Sometimes spending hours at the track…hours at home and then betting not hoping on some long shot or tri fecta…but taking the chalk as my father called the favorites. They would make large wagers on favorites to show…rarely did the favorite if properly handicapped finish out of the money. These guys were happy to take their 10 cents on the dollar and move on. Ego and luck were not involved…just cold harded business decisions.

    Dang dad if I have to do all that it’s no fun…I might as well get a real job.
    EXACTLY! he laughed.

    Good luck with any future gambling. I always do this….set aside an amount..imagine you would spend that much having fun eating out and drinking…instead spend it on the ponies. If you win great if not you still had a great time minus the streak and booze.

  22. SOEbuc Says:

    ModHairKen…was thinking why in the hell would you be wearing those shoes as well. Neurological impossible not to catch that out of the corner of your eye.

    But Gay gets a way worse rep than he should. A lot of his misses for FG were 40-50+ yards. I think (hope) he will be able to get better in his second year.

  23. John F Ensch Says:

    To much optimism. Brady being here does not make the Bucs an automatic playoff team, it just makes them better at QB. I’ve watched this team since 76 and have seen and heard it all. The Bucs in my mind are what they have always been, even with Brady; a major gamble in any situation and still not knowing how to win.

  24. El Buco Realisto Says:

    I took the “over”!!!!!!! But not on the Bucs win total, but rather all the excuses from Ole Stale Biscuit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    go bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  25. MadMax Says:

    Im going all in. I hardly gamble but notice opportunity when i see it. This has “WIN” written all over it.

    So lets see what 1k will bring me 🙂
    (gonna suck if i lose but whatever, its just a grand and my bills are paid)

  26. Dapostman Says:

    If you have the greatest of all time at the most important position plus an up and coming defense plus a young kicker in year 2 plus you got rid of your 3.1 ypc running back so anything short of playing in the NFC Championship game will be a failure.

    We’ve been told for years that the
    running game

    were all below average so there is really no excuse now. NFC Championship game or bust.