Quarterback Roulette
February 4th, 2020
“Look Derek, you’d like that old SOB Bruce Arians. That mother!@#$%^ cusses as much as I do.”
Back when the biggest mistake of the post-Chucky era took over in Tampa Bay, inept Lovie Smith, the Bucs were in need of a quarterback in the wake of the Josh Freeman fiasco.
So instead of the Bucs drafting a quarterback in 2014 — something Joe hollered long and hard about, Lovie, armed with his meticulous and extensive research gathered on players from his infamous football lab/suburban Chicago basement, concluded Stewart McClown could lead the Bucs to the promised land.
A year later, McCown was mercifully cut having led the Bucs to the worst record in the NFL and the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. McClown may have been the worst quarterback the Bucs have had since Sam Wyche became head coach.
Of course, the Bucs drafted Mr. Entertainment, America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston. Currently, Jameis’ future hangs in the balance since he is a free agent and the Bucs have since gone dark as a result. Radio silence. Team officials have barricaded themselves behind the locked doors and security guards at One Buc Palace.
What are they hiding?
So until we hear otherwise, all bets are off on who the Bucs could have at quarterback next season. Speculation is running wild. Philip Rivers. Teddy Bridgewater. Ryan Tannehill.
So Joe will play along.
Over the weekend, Adam Schefter of BSPN noted that if expected free agent Tom Brady hits the market, Chucky is going to make a strong play for his services.
Some things never change. Chucky flirts more with quarterbacks than he does with Hooters girls.
This makes business sense for Brady (football sense is a different matter) as Las Vegas is the entertainment capital of the world and Brady could rub elbows with many high rollers for future non-football endeavors, for Brady and his model wife.
But the Raiders already have a starting quarterback, right? Well, knowing Chucky, he would toss three-time Pro Bowl QB Derek Carr to the sidewalk quicker than you can push the “deal” button on a slot machine if he could land Brady.
Dead-cap cash on Carr? As Ben Volin of the Boston Globe points out, teams don’t give a damn about dead cap money any longer.
Dumping Carr would cost the Raiders some $5 million, per Spotrac.com, which isn’t much.
Joe thought sure back in 2014 the Bucs should have drafted Johnny Football and when they passed on him, Joe was screaming for the Bucs to draft Carr.
(Yes, Joe will always be a Johnny Football honk. He was easily the most fun college quarterback Joe ever watched. When Texas A&M games were on and Johnny was playing, Joe’s remote went down until the game was over. Love Johnny! And nobody knows what would have happened if he wasn’t sent to Cleveland.)
In a wild twist of fate, could Carr wind up with the Bucs, only six years later? Could Carr run Bucco Bruce Arians’ offense?
February 4th, 2020 at 5:32 am
I vote, anyone but WinSTUNNED…..
February 4th, 2020 at 5:54 am
St Pete–
My response to your claim that Manning was a better QB because his team won, despite putting up horrible numbers in his first five years:
Great point.
Essentially, you are confirming that it is a team game and not a single player effort that determines outcomes.
The Colts defense was able to overcome Manning’s eight fewer TD passes and interceptions (12 more of than Jameis!) and the Bucs defense was not. Therefore, if the Bucs had a good defense, Jameis would have a winning record.
Conclusion; you must be a big Jameis supporter..
I love engaging in “recreational” dialectics when the contrary inadvertently supports the argument of his opponent, especially when that opponent is me.
I thank you for your assistance in making my case …
February 4th, 2020 at 6:01 am
I’d take Derek Carr as our QB in a heartbeat. Yes Yes Yes.
February 4th, 2020 at 6:18 am
Dullard, Manning had 17 more touchdowns in his first five years, 138 vs 121. Also a few more yards and higher completion rate. Also he played 80 games versus 72 for JW. Hardly were they horrible.
February 4th, 2020 at 6:26 am
DR–
With Carr comes fewer picks, but his 39-55 career won-loss record begs the question; “if he’s so talented, why would Gruden want to toss him to the curb?”
And … since this fan base attributes all wins and losses to the QB, why would Bucs fans want him?
Don’t get me wrong, I think Carr is above serviceable, but how will he do coming from a dink and dunk world to bombs away?
February 4th, 2020 at 6:26 am
Team officials have barricaded themselves behind the locked doors and security guards at One Buc Palace.
What are they hiding?
Not exactly seeing news out of other teams who have questions at QB……Tenn, Carolina, Pats & others are also basically silent.
What do you expect…..a daily press conference with play by play on the negotiations?
February 4th, 2020 at 6:32 am
Carr is certainly a more accurate passer and less reckless with turnovers. He completed over 70% of his passes with only 8 INTs last year.
February 4th, 2020 at 6:37 am
Burton–
You’re correct. My bad.
But if you add another eight games to Winston’s resume his projection would be 137 and 100 picks–essentially the same statistics.
My point is that it is a team game and the Colts were a better team, overcoming Manning’s 100 blunders where the Bucs cannot seem to overcome anything.
February 4th, 2020 at 6:40 am
Joe, every article you write now SCREAMS BYE BYE WINSTON!!! You’ve finally come around. Took FIVE freaking years though. Five years you’ll never get back.
February 4th, 2020 at 6:41 am
Anyone who would rather pay Winston +$30M a year than Carr $20M a year has no business commenting on football matters.
February 4th, 2020 at 6:43 am
Maybe if we get a decent running game and keep a stout defense we could keep Jameis, there is no better option as far as I can see. Stop throwing for 5000 yards. Get a back that can wear out a defense. Less yards thrown means less int’s. Big bruising back and o-line that can move the los. Incentive laden contract or franchise him. But something has to change, run more, trade for Fournette. Just ideas.
February 4th, 2020 at 6:43 am
Well @TBBF…you expect them to not deliberately hide like Rachel Watson does when a certain guy running this here site is even in her same zip code. Might want to get your facts straight. –Joe https://www.joebucsfan.com/2012/08/joe-meets-an-all-time-great/
Like cowards, Light and Arians dodged all local media at both the East West Shrine game and the Senior Bowl.
Unless of course, they have been strategically and emphatically told to do just that, by ownership. And that’s…where the investigative reporting should be right there. That’s..the angle. Those questions need to be posed directly to ownership.
February 4th, 2020 at 6:49 am
McCown was in a very sh!tty situation. He had a horrible o line, he didn’t have a real offensive coordinator, didn’t have a qb coach (remember…he was forced into the roll of coordinator) and he had to “mentor” Glennon. Perhaps you should cut him some slack?
McCown’s career record and career performance when he arrived screamed “backup.” Everyone knew it except the head coach and the GM. –Joe
February 4th, 2020 at 7:04 am
No teams are broadcasting what they are doing with their QBs……
February 4th, 2020 at 7:23 am
Derek Carr is not an upgrade.
February 4th, 2020 at 7:39 am
Ineffible – That is great!
February 4th, 2020 at 7:41 am
I hope Bucs stay with Winston!
February 4th, 2020 at 7:50 am
You guys clearly didn’t watch the last Raiders game last year when Carr on 4th down, with the game on the line, threw the ball away. That’s right on 4th down, HE THREW THE BALL AWAY. No thanks.
February 4th, 2020 at 7:56 am
No
February 4th, 2020 at 7:58 am
Ndog is almost as clueless about Football and QBs as Clueless Joe but he’s right can’t get excited about a QB who throws it away on 4th down
As for Johnny Drunk, his college career was made on broken plays and throwing up hope and prayer throws to Evans. So yeah it didn’t matter where Johnny Drunk went he was destined to be a bust. Give it up Joe your QB acumen is just not up to the standard Buc fans deserve
February 4th, 2020 at 8:08 am
Im having a hard time understanding this fan base. We want to get rid of Jameis because he doesnt win but we would be ok with the likes of Carr or even giving Marriota a chance here. Then we want somebody who doesnt turn the ball over but we are willling to get behind bringing in Philip Rivers? I cant wait for a decision to be made because apparently we want the same types of QB that we want to get rid of.
February 4th, 2020 at 8:14 am
It would be kind of a fitting career ending for Winston if he ends up gone. He both started his career with a pick-6 and ended it with a pick-6. Just beautiful.
February 4th, 2020 at 8:25 am
I think Carr would be a good fit…numbers compared
Derek Carr OAK Pct Comp 70.40 yards 4,054 Intpt% 1.6 QB Rating 100.8
Jameis Winston TB Pct Comp 60.70 yards 5,109 Intpt% 4.8 QB Rating 84.3
February 4th, 2020 at 8:41 am
Ohhh…my facts are always straight. It was implied in the statement, that the distance she now keeps is SINCE she’s met you, primarily due to your commentary about her since then, style, frequency, etc.
But keep hangin on to that one day…in 2012. Twenty …twelve.
All…straightened..out.
Btw, Carr might not be a bad option…wonder what BA thinks.
February 4th, 2020 at 8:50 am
Defense Rules Says:
February 4th, 2020 at 6:01 am
I’d take Derek Carr as our QB in a heartbeat. Yes Yes Yes.
i agree!!!!!
GO BUCS!!!!!!
February 4th, 2020 at 9:02 am
I’d take Carr too. He may have had that 4th down blunder, but definitely way less blunders than #3…
February 4th, 2020 at 9:15 am
For the guys comparing numbers (winston v Manning) Remebber that Winston really only has played 4.5 seasons. He has missed 8 (3 in 2017 due o injury and 5 in 2018.) So that makes his numbers worse in regards to TO’s.
February 4th, 2020 at 9:17 am
I used to hold my breath a lot as a kid in the pool trying to see how long I could do it. Now I do it as a Bucs fan every time I quarterback goes back to pass. it would be nice not to have to do that every drop back. I don’t think it’ll ever be that way with JW.
February 4th, 2020 at 9:23 am
Is Carr really an upgrade over Jameis? While Jameis makes buffoonish plays at times, Carr seems a bit too risk averse. Maybe Carr was told to play that way and he could change in Arian’s system? Above my pay grade, but I know for sure that I wouldn’t give up the 14th overall pick for him and I doubt that the Raiders would take anything less than a 1st round pick. I’m thinking that a team like the Colts would give up their number one for Carr in a split second. Now if Detroit would give up Stafford for number 14 overall…
February 4th, 2020 at 9:24 am
Lord what a GREAT contract Carr has too!! Trade for that contract pronto!
2020: $21.5 mill
2021: $22.125 mill
2022: $19.87 mill
Assuming BA thinks Carr’s arm can make all the necessary throws for this system, and his prior broken ankle is fully properly healed, that is a beautiful contract! And his agent sux.
February 4th, 2020 at 9:36 am
The Herd had an interesting piece on yesterday about teams that moved on from QBs. KC – moved on from Smith to Mahomes
TEN – moved on from Mariota to Tannehill
BAL – moved on from Flacco to Jackson
ARI – moved on from Rozen to Murray
This fanbase needs to stop being scared that they’re losing something in Winston. Notice how these teams saw enough, some in ONE YEAR, and moved on. We have got to realize that Winston can’t win. He can’t play Championship football. Where do we want to be? Stop hoping for change. Make change happen by not resigning this guy.
February 4th, 2020 at 9:39 am
I am in favor of moving on to a QB that understands the importance of protecting the ball. advantage Carr
February 4th, 2020 at 9:40 am
I’d be in on Carr too. Go look at the DVOA. While we are wading into silly season. Let’s throw in the real wild card. LUCK!!! That would be really interesting.
In BA I Trust!
February 4th, 2020 at 9:40 am
You’ve got a good point Troy
February 4th, 2020 at 9:54 am
Joe – you’ve gotta give it up dude. You’re about to qualify as the next Patron Saint of Lost Causes for your continued support of the most complete, NFL ready QB of the 2015 draft.
Give it up already.
Peace, out.
February 4th, 2020 at 9:54 am
Just lock up Winston to a 10 year, $50 million per year long term contract. Make it 100% guaranteed. Giving half a billion to a 28-42 QB really does make the best sense. Playoffs don’t really matter as long as you throw up the most passing yards. #Winning
February 4th, 2020 at 9:55 am
Troy
Just won the JBF threads for the week
February 4th, 2020 at 10:00 am
College QBs are much better prepared than at any time in the past, They get professional tutored every off season.
I think someone like Fromm, Gordon, or Morgan can be picked up in the second round and be the starter almost immediately.
Let Griffin play the first few and then play the rookie. It has a better chance of working than of Jameis taking us anywhere other than the doormat of the NASCAR Division.
February 4th, 2020 at 10:20 am
Joe, stop! Just stop! You were banging the drum for Johnny Manziel before that draft. How did that work out? Instead, Lovie Smith and Jason Licht drafted Mike Evans.
How did that turn out?
Josh McCown was a bridge-the-gap QB and you know it. Pretending to believe otherwise only fools yourself. The Bucs plan for 2014 was the correct one. Tanking for Jameis was the correct decision. Sure, it didn’t work out as Jameis has ended up becoming a bridge-the-gap QB himself, but it was the correct decision.
February 4th, 2020 at 10:27 am
For all the numb skulls claiming carr doesn’t turn the ball over and would fit in this offense. His average depth of target this seasom was 6.2 yards. Lowest in the nfl. Hard to turn it over when you’re practically handing the ball off. And you think that depth of target would work in this offense? A simple google search would save so many of you from looking stupid.
February 4th, 2020 at 10:29 am
Continuing on, because a part of me thinks you’re trollin’ a little bit, which QB would you have drafted out of the 2014 draft class Joe? Here they are:
Blake Bortles
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
Derek Carr
Jimmy Garoppolo
Logan Thomas
Tom Savage
Aaron Murray
AJ McCarron
Zach Mettenberger
David Fales
Keith Wenning
Tajh Boyd
Garrett Gilbert
None of these QBs were higher ranked and graded than Mike Evans that year and the one that has found the most success is Jimmy Garoppolo.
February 4th, 2020 at 10:29 am
Ineffable…If you think that made your case I’m happy to oblige. Of course we have different views.
“And nobody knows what would have happened if he wasn’t sent to Cleveland.”
It’s OK to admit a mistake Joe. He could have been sent anywhere it wouldn’t have mattered because what you and apparently the Browns did not know was that they were drafting Johnny “Boozer’s” bottle as well as him.
Alcohol is still far more accepted than weed. A dude like Sapp’s draft stock drops because he’s has enjoyed a toke or two but guys can get away with drinking booze because it is socially acceptable and therefore easier to hide a problem.
February 4th, 2020 at 10:32 am
NPUPPY: Carr threw the ball away on 4th down… Winston tosses a game ending pick 6 on first down. Not really a difference I guess 🤦🏻♂️
February 4th, 2020 at 10:40 am
Sleepy gets the award as the most logical poster on this site. The rest of you (mostly) would bounce Winston for inferior talent. SMH.
February 4th, 2020 at 10:53 am
I wanted Derek Carr when he was drafted. I think he would do well with Bruce Arians. Very well.
As a former Bucs QB once said: John Gruden loves to date QBs, he just doesn’t want to marry one.
So if Grudens wants rid of him, it doesn’t bother me.
But Derek Carr won’t play for the Bucs. Jameis Winston will.
Anyone notice how once the Brady to Tampa rumors get old, new ones of him to Vegas start? It’s all fake news. Brady will play in New England in 2020.
February 4th, 2020 at 11:09 am
Clearly, you’ve never watched Carr play in the NFL. Joe, you’ve said many times you don’t want a dink and dunk guy. Carr is Mike Dynamite 2.0
Why do you think chicly wants to move on? Can’t wait to be down 14 and throw the ball ball out of the end zone on 4th down just to avoid a sack!!! I miss that life!!
February 4th, 2020 at 11:17 am
Chip Chipperson Says:
February 4th, 2020 at 6:49 am
McCown was in a very sh!tty situation. He had a horrible o line, he didn’t have a real offensive coordinator, didn’t have a qb coach (remember…he was forced into the roll of coordinator) and he had to “mentor” Glennon. Perhaps you should cut him some slack?
McCown’s career record and career performance when he arrived screamed “backup.” Everyone knew it except the head coach and the GM. –Joe—————
————————————-
McCown’s career screamed Rich Gannon 2.0
There were far worse QBs since Sam Wyche. Casey Weldon, Eric Zeier, Bruce Gradkowski, Glennon (he was worse than McCown that year), Tim Rattay, Rob Johnson, even Shaun King was not better than McCown. That team was complete garbage. No OC, no line, nothing.
And you know who else McCown is better than? Johnny Football! Who has a better chance of playing in the NFL? The 40-something year old McCown coming off a horrible hamstring tear, or Manziel? McCown by a million miles. McCown > Manziel
February 4th, 2020 at 11:24 am
Also, loved watching Manziel in college. Kid was one of the most exciting college QBs ever.
February 4th, 2020 at 11:34 am
Would love to see the Bucs get Carr. I said before if possible the Bucs should trade JW for Carr. If possible straight up.
February 4th, 2020 at 11:53 am
Carr is a checkdown passer- that’s why his completion % is so good.
He’s not an upgrade over Jameis and he would cost more than he’s worth.
Better to take a chance on a draft pick who could play 2nd half of season or maybe after game 3 or 4 and make rest of team bad-ass.
February 4th, 2020 at 1:11 pm
AlanBucsfan … “Carr is a checkdown passer- that’s why his completion % is so good.”
I honestly don’t see where you’re getting that Alan. When I look at Jameis career stats vs Carr’s career stats, I see advantage Carr. BIG TIME.
Start with a few easy ones. Winston: 5 seasons; Carr: 6 seasons. Winston: 70 starts (10 games not starting in 5 seasons for various reasons). Carr: 94 starts (2 games not starting in 6 seasons). Advantage: Carr.
o Winston: 28-42 won-loss record (40% win %). Carr: 39-55 won-loss record (41% win %). Advantage: Tie
o Winston: 61.3% average completion rate. Carr: 64.0% average completion rate. Advantage: Carr.
o Winston: 19,737 passing yards (274 average YPG based on 72 games played in). Carr: 22,793 passing yards (242 average YPG based on 94 games played in). Advantage: Winston.
o Winston: 7.7 Yards/Passing Attempt. Carr: 6.9 Yards/Passing Attempt. Advantage: Winston.
o Winston: 7.1 Adjusted Yards/Passing Attempt (after factoring in INTs). Carr: 6.9 Adjusted Yards/Passing Attempt. Slight advantage Winston (a better comparison since INT differences are factored in).
o Winston: 121 passing TDs (24.2 average TDs/season). Carr: 143 passing TDs (23.8 average TDs/season). Advantage: Tie
o Winston: 88 INTs (17.6 INTs/season). Carr: 62 INTs (10.3 INTs/season). Advantage: Carr.
o Winston: 6.2 Sack Percentage. Carr: 4.9 Sack Percentage. Advantage: Carr.
o Winston: 7 x 4th Quarter Comebacks. Carr: 18 x 4th Quarter Comebacks. Advantage: Carr.
o Winston: 11 Game Winning Drives led by QB. Carr: 19 Game Winning Drives led by QB. Advantage: Carr.
I’m sure that there are a lot of other comparisons that could be drawn Alan, but until this past year when Jameis threw for 5,109 passing yards versus Carr’s 4,054 passing yards, their passing production was almost identical. Reality is that Carr is no more of a ‘Checkdown Charlie’ than Jameis is. And he protects the ball a LOT BETTER.
Like Bonzai, I wanted the Bucs to draft him back in 2014 too. Had we done that, I think we would’ve been a much different TEAM right now (Drafting ‘Weapons for Carr’ just doesn’t have the same ring to it). I’d take him today in a heartbeat over Jameis.
February 4th, 2020 at 1:28 pm
I doubt seriously Gruden would want Jameis. But it would be interesting seeing Jameis looking over his shoulder constantly for the lil Napoleon.
He pretty much killed the rest of Alstott’s career over a few fumbles.
February 4th, 2020 at 1:32 pm
@Ineffable Dullard Repairman … “With Carr comes fewer picks, but his 39-55 career won-loss record begs the question; “if he’s so talented, why would Gruden want to toss him to the curb? Don’t get me wrong, I think Carr is above serviceable, but how will he do coming from a dink and dunk world to bombs away?”
The first question’s easy: ‘That’s Chucky’. In his 8 seasons with us, Gruden had NINE different QBs start for him. None of us know for sure obviously, but I’d bet that Chucky never found that 1 QB who thought the same way he did (like Belicheck & Brady think alike? Or like Payton & Brees think alike?).
The second one’s a little harder, because the way it’s worded is misleading. Carr ISN’T a dink & dunk QB. He couldn’t put up the yardage that he has for 6 seasons if he was. Beyond that though, BA wants to WIN, and WIN NOW. He’s as smart as they come IMO, and once he sits down and analyzes the Bucs’ 2019 offense, he’ll make adjustments in 2020. I personally think that Bucs will have a somewhat more conservative offense in 2020; conservative in the sense of being more BALANCED. He’ll improve the OLine AND the running game, and yes, his QB (whoever that might be) will do a better job of distributing the football. We stunk at that last year, and ended up 7-9. That fact won’t be lost of BA. He’ll adjust.
February 4th, 2020 at 1:36 pm
Bob in Valrico … Totally agree about Alstott, but not so sure about Jameis. Chucky has a strong ego, and the temptation to try to ‘fix Jameis’ might be too much for him to resist. A conservative game won’t go over big in Vegas. Mr Entertainment could fit right in there.
February 4th, 2020 at 2:34 pm
Defense Rules-
Raiders lost 5 of last 6 games:
Here were Carr’s stats
Vs Jets. 15-27 127 yds. long 19
Vs Chiefs 20-30 228 yds. Long 28
Vs Titans. 25-34. 262 yds. Long 49
Vs Jaguars 22-36 267 yds. Long 40
Vs Chargers 26-30 291 yds. Long 56
Vs Broncos. 29-46. 391 yds Long 75
Subtract his Long completions and he was 131-197 1299 yds
He doesn’t turn it over but he doesn’t make plays to win games either
February 4th, 2020 at 2:40 pm
Carr and Stafford are both available !!!
February 4th, 2020 at 3:43 pm
Yeah Carr threw the ball away on 4th down. Jameis throws pick sixes on first down. Sometimes on the first play of the game. Sometimes on the last play of the game, and sometimes he does both. Yeah, Jameis is a lot better then Carr.
February 4th, 2020 at 4:09 pm
Hodad with the comeback post of the day! Well played, sir!
February 4th, 2020 at 4:44 pm
AlanBucsfan … Personally I’d rather look at a player’s body of work over his career than just at a select handful of games.
For instance, in his first 5 games, Jameis was 102-for-166 (61.4%) and threw for 250.4 yards average, and the Bucs’ offense had 6 turnovers (5 INTs). In his 6th game (London), Jameis was 30-for-54 (55.6%) and threw for 400 yards, while the Bucs’ offense had 7 turnovers (5 INTs).
So which was the REAL Jameis? The one who threw for an average of 250 yards/game and was 2-3 in those 5 games with 5 total INTs, or the one who threw for 400 yards/game and was 0-1 with 5 total INTs? Obviously very much different gameplans, and very much different QB performance.
February 4th, 2020 at 4:55 pm
I second D R and add another Yes!
February 4th, 2020 at 5:22 pm
Defense Rules-
You are right- it is easy to cherry pick stats
IMO, Carr has had 1 winning season out of 6 – I just don’t see the need to commit big$ to QB’s who don’t win. I’d rather gamble on a high draft pick rookie while bolstering OLine and running game and keeping D together.
February 4th, 2020 at 6:03 pm
I would 100% take Carr as our QB I’m a Winston Supporter but I also want the Bucs to win an I would not be against getting Carr as our QB of the Bucs
February 4th, 2020 at 6:52 pm
Banging my head. Why do all you fools want a game manager? This defense isn’t all that yet. 17 points per game ain’t going to get us to the playoffs.
February 4th, 2020 at 9:44 pm
Bringing in Derek Carr would at the least be a sign of good faith to the public and to the loyal fans that they are making moves to be contenders once again.. Derek Carr, a bruiser RB and a few upgrades in the trenches and 2020 starts to look like the start of a new decade with Winning!
February 5th, 2020 at 1:23 pm
What happened to Wins Wins Wins? LOL- 39-55. A 2 cent head (which some of you will say about Winston- and at this point may be correct). No guts, see the throw aways in key situations and unwillingness to run when needed. 62 career INTs and 28 fumbles in an offense that is pretty much a dink and dunk. Does he have the ability to throw the ball downfield? Of course he does, but can he do it every 3rd pass while passing 45+ times a game? Not in my eyes. Can he do it while under a tremendous amount of pressure because our line isn’t very good, don’t make me laugh. Dude will curl up in the fetal position like Eli used to. We are all in agreement that Winston just needs to throw less INT’s. He never threw more than 18 in a season prior to this year. If he throws 18 next year, 33 TDs and 5100 yards- he is the NFL MVP, as long as the Defense continues it’s improved play and as long as Matt Gay Doesn’t fold like Aguayo.