Mr. Third Down

August 22nd, 2019

Date reveals a QB lethal on third downs.

He’s money!

Yes, when the chips are down there are just a couple of quarterbacks you want throwing for your team on third down. One is America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston.

On perhaps the most important down in football, the one that can keep a drive alive, Jameis is dominant. That’s the word from the “Football Outsiders” crowd, typing for BSPN, who did extensive offseason research into quarterbacks.

Don’t take Joe’s word for it, read for yourself straight from the horse’s mouth.

And while Winston has a well-earned reputation for being overly aggressive and careless with the ball, his third-down results in 2018 were unassailable. He converted 45% of his third downs, the third-highest rate in the league, and threw for eight touchdowns. Meanwhile, he threw just one of his total 14 interceptions on third down.

Well what do you know about that? On a down where most defenses are expecting Jameis to pass, he tore them up. Eight touchdowns against one pick? Joe has a hunch that’s not a shabby touchdown-to-interception ratio.

With a money quarterback like that, why would the Grandpa Simpsons of the world keep banging their canes on the nursing home floor trying to run Jameis out of town? Joe doesn’t get it.

67 Responses to “Mr. Third Down”

  1. DB55 Says:

    The MESSIAH!!!!!! The SECOND COMING!!!!!!

  2. Pryda...Sec147 Says:

    MVP breakout season coming up

  3. Hodad Says:

    He’s money this year, as in 20 million dollar option.

  4. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    I’ve finally been converted…..Jameis Winston is “America’s QB”….(sarcasm)

    With this stat and many others, Jameis is outstanding…….if he can cut down on his turnovers and complete more passes downfield….he will have turned the corner.

  5. ou812 Says:

    Mike Evans is Mr. 3 down. Not Jaymiss he even made Manzel look good take Evans away and Jaymiss is the worst starting Qb in the league !!!

  6. down in the dirt doug Says:


  7. DB55 Says:

    tUrNoVeRs…HiT’eM iN sTrIdE…

    How about everyone just DO THEIR FN JOBS LIKE BLOCK AND TACKLE

  8. BigHog Says:

    Nothing in the world that FAMOUS can’t do!!

  9. AlteredEgo Says: Your comment is awaiting moderation. Says:

    DB55 Says:
    August 22nd, 2019 at 9:02 am
    The MESSIAH!!!!!! The FOURTH COMING!!!!!!……fixed it

  10. bucnole Says:

    ou812 Says:

    That may be one of the dumbest things I have ever read on here
    Not only is it weak AF it isn’t even remotely accurate

  11. Buccaneer Bonzai Says:

    I never cared for the America’s QB nickname. Reminds me too much of the Cowboys, who were called America’s Football Team when I was growing up. I hated them.

    I also don’t like ‘Messiah’ or ‘Savior’ being applied to anyone but the real one.

    Even worse, I hate the ‘Jaymiss’ moniker the trolls and haters use.

    I get Joe using a nickname…it’s sort of a JBF tradition. But man, there has to be better. Come up with one for Matt Gay so people don’t make Gay jokes constantly (me included).

    Jameis is just Jameis to me. A future elite QB if he keeps improving, and if the team improves around him.

  12. Buccaneer Bonzai Says:

    ou812 is clearly a Falcons fan. They were never good at talking smack.

  13. ben Says:

    So why does the nfl rate Winston way below average after 4 years?

  14. Dewey Selmon Says:

    Bonz, wait until our kicker shanks his first kick. GAYMISS! it’s coming, the trolls are waiting.

  15. Pittsshore Says:

    Hmmmmm Joe. You normally hate anything that comes from ESPN. But of course this small tidbit of the article props up Apples McGoo so you rub with it. SMH. I really thought you were starting to come around. Now back to my Apple sauce at the nursing home.

  16. BrianBucs Says:


    Because he is

  17. ATLBucsfan Says:

    Would be interested in that statistic in the red zone. Joe – any idea?

  18. Pittsshore Says:

    He also ranks number one in off the field transgressions.

  19. Rayjay1122 Says:

    Bottom line is that regardless of how good Winston does even If he becomes a super bowl winner, many people will always dislike him, want him gone and disrespect him because of his past off the field issues. It is ridiculous but true. Mostly it is the people who feel better about themselves by constantly slamming another person for mistakes.

  20. miken Says:

    He’s good on 3rd down because he’s so strong and keeps the play alive.
    @rayjay… by most people, you mean a handful of haters every qb has that post negative stuff about their starting qb. I’m sure if a few years go by with no foolish behavior, all will be forgotten.

  21. Cobraboy Says:

    I guess ou812 never saw Humphries or Brate make clutch catches on third down.

  22. Barbosa Says:

    Fix the defense. Fix the defense. Fix the defense. Winston will be the first QB in team history to sign a second contract. Whoever wants Winston out is a moron. You can’t argue numbers. You can’t coach passion and leadership. FIX THE DEFENSE

  23. Magadude Says:

    No issue with Winston’s play on third down (when he’s not throwing it to the other team). He was indeed better last year about throwing it away when needed. Yes, money most of the time, good conversion %.

  24. Costa Rica John Says:

    If Winston was the Bucs QB when Tony Dungy was coaching the Bucs they would have won 3 Super Bowls. Winston will be fine when he quits playing catch up.

  25. Magadude Says:

    @Miken…the latest in a string of off field stuff did occur three years ago but the reverberations for it hurting his team and what many see as deceit/cover up has not even been a full year yet. Devastated energy and normalzy going to last year. His “record” in this regard is not good…so he needs to improve the record with time and honorable performance…not with apologists trying to deny there “is” anything there. The biggest question is…based on his record, would there be someone else that popped up that he didn’t think was a big deal or he just forgot. So it will take time for some, Glazers most important, to “trust” him again. Sure, he may be all good now…but only TIME and example, not talk, will verify that. That a problem issue regarding “haters” as some refer to…it’s good common sense; good business. But doesn’t matter anyway if he doesn’t improve his play on the field.

  26. NOSBOS Says:

    Hmm, money on 3rd down and one of leagues highest completion percentage when under pressure. Now in come Bruce Arians. A lot of you fools about to eat ya whack @$$ words. Won’t be much longer now.

  27. AKickInTheBucNuts Says:

    Other teams were so far ahead, they played bend defense, allowing us to move up and down the field gaining big yardage.

    Then when the Bucs got into redzone range, they tightened up and Bucs couldn’t score.

    Meaningless 3rd down conversions.

  28. BucsBandit Says:

    “On a down where most defenses are expecting Jameis to pass, he tore them up.”

    What’s the statistical breakdown of how many passes were on 3rd and short? Koetter was very aggressive and I remember us passing a lot when the defense wouldn’t have expected us to throw.

    And if Jameis is so great on 3rd down, when defenses expected him to pass, then he must really suck and be inconsistent if the majority of his INTs where on 1st or 2nd down when a defense ISN’T expecting him to pass. Just sayin.

  29. BucsBandit Says:


    Exactly this. I was thinking the same thing. When a defense is protecting a large lead they’ll keep giving the underneath stuff, even letting a team convert 1st downs without taking much risks (because they don’t need to at that point).

    The real key is in the Red Zone.

  30. Ghost of Darrell Henderson Says:

    I’m expecting a breakout year simply because he has finally admitted that he can’t see worth a darn.

    If you notice on interviews and videos like the “Current”, he now wears glasses.

    Throughout his college and pro career you can see JW squinting as he struggles to see the sidelines or scoreboard. He stubbornly refused to have his eyes examined.

    Failure to hit on the deep ball? He couldn’t see the receiver. Couldn’t hit ME in stride? He couldn’t see him well enough to hit him in the hands.

    The mind is like a computer processing large amounts of data almost instantaneously. If his eyes were giving him bad data…… garbage in equals garbage out.

  31. BucsBandit Says:


    Really? You don’t think a sports organization paying someone $20m/year hasn’t checked his eye sight?


  32. Magadude Says:

    Ghost…If my apologists used every excuse in the book and my keester and $140M depended on convincing someone why I’ve not been cutting the mustard, yeah, I’d say I can’t see too. I’d take the very first Uber I could get to the eye doctor. I’ve heard the squinting thing for years. Should we really be so naive to believe the issues is he needs glasses? Maybe….nah.

    You realize, this is another lame apologist excuse.

    “Jameis is fine. He just needed glasses.”

  33. gilhealy Says:

    Miken, did you listen to Magadick? He’s the voice of reason on all things Jameis. LOL. He actually believes what he writes. Sensitive little fella. I

  34. Cgmaster27 Says:

    Oh look another Jameis article with the four same usual soy boys repeating the same stuff. Maga, pittshore, alter and ben, every article it’s the same spewed rhetoric. With ben, it’s about qbr, unless hes talking about his boy toy Mariota, then it doesnt count. Then we have alters “hit em in stride” mantra because that’s all he can come up with. With pittshore, it’s the off the field stuff, even though it was 3 years ago and he thinks hes funny. Then magadue, who in his defense mixes up his stupidity. And with every good game from Jameis, they’re invisible in the comment sections.

  35. Dapostman Says:

    “You can’t go back and change the beginning, but you can start where you are and change the ending.”

    C.S. Lewis

    WDS simpletons this is for you.

  36. Magadude Says:

    @BucsBandit. Of course, I’m sure health care insurance in the NFL really stinks. Probably terrible co-pays and deductables, and you can’t expect him to afford the eye exam on his salary. Poor little fella…probably been saving up for it and was almost there but the washing machine broke. Dang, it’s always something.

  37. diggler Says:

    People who quote stats out of context should shampoo my crotch.

  38. Old Sombrero Kid Says:

    America’s Turnover Machine

  39. RustyRhinos Says:

    Has anyone checked out his first down completions, second down completions? How many of those 13 INT’s were on first or second down? You know when there is no dire need to push the results. Playing smart football is hitting those passes that are open, and not force it to the one guy you have your eyes on from the snap of the ball. I could understand the need to learn this from any average Rookie QB right out of college football. But Winston was described here as the most NFL QB in a generation. Does being NFL ready not included taking care of the ball? Is a QB NFL ready in year five if his fan base still has to hope that he figures out how to have ball security? It is my hope that Winston has turned that corner and is going to show us that most NFL ready QB in a generation. And yards don’t mean spit at the end of a season, only WINS
    Come on Winston.
    SHOW ME! Don’t tell me SHOW ME!
    GO BUCS!!

  40. BucsBandit Says:

    @cgimaster 27 – “With every good game from Jameis they’re invisible in the comments sections.”

    You’re right! They should still post after those 3 or 4 games a season.

  41. JimmyJack Says:

    Don’t have to look it up cause I seen it Joe but thanks for sharing. The only part that I was unaware of is only on pick on 3rd down…….And that is the part where Winston deserves critism. Too many of his picks come at ill-advised times. Every QB in the league makes mistakes but you have to mitigate risk on early downs…….especially given his 3rd down stats and how efficient he can be……….He has the tools to take a loss or no yards on one play and get it back on the next. Those early down picks are enough to drive a fan crazy.

    Also agree with Joe continuing to knock Winston for his fumbles. That has to get cleaned up. Fumbles are going to happen with a gunslinger like Jamies but probably about half of them have been wildly unnessary. Your QB has to protect the football better then Winston has…….I’ve liked what I seen so far in his 2 drives & his last few games last year.

  42. JimmyJack Says:

    Bottom line is Winston needs to clean up his turnovers. He does that he will be the franchise QB we need.

    Winston nugglers love to compare him to the greats and show similar INTs. That’s fine but them QBs improved their numbers which is what made them great. Now it’s Winston’s turn.

  43. 813bucboi Says:

    JimmyJack Says:
    August 22nd, 2019 at 2:09 pm
    Bottom line is Winston needs to clean up his turnovers. He does that he will be the franchise QB we need.


    GO BUCS!!!!

  44. ou812 Says:

    Ah buchole ! truth hurts .

  45. ou812 Says:

    Nope been a buc fan going all the way back to the McKay Days. Bucboner your mother is calling get out the basement and take the garbage out.

  46. ou812 Says:

    We will see Friday no Mike , Humphries and I doubt Brate. So lets see what #3 third down % is? Co bra Boy. Stick your hand my cage and you will get bit!

  47. Morgus the Magnificent Says:

    Jameis is THE GREATEST!!! …..right?

  48. Pete I Says:

    Lethal on third down.

    To bad he’s not lethal in the red zone, or scoring, or winning games.

    Another meaningless stat for Jameis ” meaningless stats ” Winston

  49. ou812 Says:

    Play good defense run the ball and don’t let #3 lose the game with HIS turnovers We might have a chance at 500 football! But his history says he will turn the ball over! It’s just a question of is the team good enough to over come bad QB play

  50. Bucsfanman Says:

    I guess it’s those pesky other downs he has issue with!!! 1st and 2nd! LOL!

  51. Rod Munch Says:

    There’s a reason he had the 4th highest QBr last year. Part of it is 3rd down efficiency, part of it is the yards per attempt and the other part is when he did make plays they tended to be in situations where the defense had already put the team in an impossible situation and Winston was forcing the ball to try to get back into the game.

    Winston has had the worst defense in football in 2015. You know who else had that problem? Dan Fouts in the early 80s when the team would go 6-10. The offense would be #1 in the NFL and the defense would be #28. He’s a first ballot HOF’er QB and he couldn’t overcome that, yet idiots in comment section think Winston is the issue.

  52. BucsFan727 Says:

    Jamies will be in the Hall of Fame when its all said and done.

  53. Morgus the Magnificent Says:

    You can pick and choose your stats in tiny slices and find something that looks good. But in the end, you are what your record says you are. And he’s a loser as a pro. (OAOTF)

  54. Jean Lafitte Says:

    More much to do about nothing. So what, does all that cherry pickin’ stats translate to wins?

  55. JimmyJack Says:

    Rod Munch. Just wanted to respond because there has been a common misconception. Some fans(not all but some) are actually just being critical of Winston. Doesn’t mean they are blaming him for everything and anything. If the article were about the defense we would have much more critism to share. But it’s about Winston so we are just sharing what things we want to see him improve upon.

    Not accusing you of this but commenters often get attacked(myself included) and called haters just because they have a critism…….Winston is not above any critism any of the other 31 QBs are subject to. & He don’t need fans defending him. Let his play do the talking………..& I do understand Winston has ligitamate haters that deserve the attacks but there is a definite difference between being critical and hating.

  56. JimmyJack Says:

    One thing Winston has on his side is that the NFL is a “what have you done for me lately league”…..If the team gets into the playoffs this year like I expect nobody’s really going to care about his losses from 2+ years ago.

    Winning will change the expectations fans have for him & if he delivers the entire outlook changes.

    Of course if it don’t work that’s a different story but no need to worry about that since it likely won’t happen.

    My prediction. 11-5!!

    GO BUCS!!!

  57. Ghost of Darrell Henderson Says:

    “Really? You don’t think a sports organization paying someone $20m/year hasn’t checked his eye sight?”


    This is the same sports organization that traded the best RB in college football history for 2 magic beans.

    People are proud, people live in denial. Usually in 2nd grade, if you squint while looking at the black board, they tell your parents to get you glasses.

    If you are born with poor vision, you are the last to know because you don’t know any different.

  58. Rod Munch Says:

    JimmyJack – You and I are always talking in the gameday thread, so no need to qualify your response, I know you’re not just a blind hater. My comment is aimed at the dumbasses who just say Winston sucks, he’s the reason we’re losing. That is 100% fake news. Jameis only had a halfway decent defense for one season and the team went 9-7 (and yes, they were only halfway decent since while they played well for a 6-game strech, they also did almost nothing the rest of the year). Also that stat, that the Bucs have had the worst defense in football since 2015, that’s a real thing. Winston also, as of prior to last year, had played the hardest schedule in football – I didn’t redo the math for last season, but looking at SOS I don’t really see anyone that would have likely passed him. Meanwhile, since 2015, the Bucs have had a top 10 offense and rewrote all the passing records for the team.

    Winston does make bad plays, but they tend to be in bunches or when the team was already out of the game and he’s pressing to make plays. Take the national championship game against Oregon – Winston made that “bad” play that was played over and over again – but why did he make it? Because the game was over and he was trying to reverse that, he was single handedly trying to bring them back. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t, but it’s not like he’s making those bad plays in a tied game in the 4th quarter – he’s making those plays when the Bucs are down 20 points in the 2nd – which I’ve said for a couple years now and thankfully I heard Arians say the same thing. But, yes, he will have a game like at the Bengals where he isn’t any good and would throw 4 or 5 INTs. You know who else would do that? Brett Favre. If you want a game manager boring QB whose only concern isn’t winning, but just not turning the ball over, well, Mike Glennon might be very cheap to bring back.

    There’s just a ton of lazy slobs out there who don’t know anything about what they’re watching, or like the national radio/writer slobs they look at a box score and give it zero context to what was happening in the game. One stat does look at the stats in context, and that’s QBr, and QBr had him 4th last year. If you take away that awful game in bad weather on the road against an AFC opponent, Winston literally is the top rated guy in QBr. The guy is the best QB in team history.

  59. JimmyJack Says:

    Hahaha Ghost…….Yeah those things are figured out during blackboard lessons. Right after you play a rousing round or Orgeon Trail on the 150 lb Apple.

    Seriously bro anybody under the age of 30 don’t got a clue what your talking about.

  60. JimmyJack Says:

    Rod I figured as much. Just wanted to use your post as a sounding board to vent against the Winston extremists who will try and persecute and belittle anybody that wants to voice their opinion about our QB.

    Critism is part of sports and I will defend any man’s right against those who wish to abolish it. We will stand firm as Bucs fans and we will criticize whatever and whoever we want when we deem necessary!! You may not always agree and may not even like us but when you try to stamp a lable on us in an attempt to infringe on our good given rights as a sports fan you WILL NOT BE TOLERATED!!!!!!

    GO BUCS in 2019 BAAAY BEE!!!!!!

  61. Ghost of Darrell Henderson Says:


    LOL, message received.

    I’ll try to dumb down my future comments so as not to confuse the millennial snowflakes.

  62. Boombang Says:

    That is about the dumbest comment I have ever heard…..Jameis is not Mr 3rd down – Evans is….Dude how do you suppose Evans gets the ball…..Maybe the ball is dropping out of a gumball machine or maybe Evans is a magican and he magicially has the ball appear out of thin air.

  63. Tony LA Says:

    Ghost of DH:

    You realize the Bucs and every major sports organization uses state of the art medical technology your mind couldn’t possibly grasp. They know the molecular structure of each individual bead of sweat coming off Jameis, let alone whether or not he has 20/20 vision. Come on, man… It’s 2019, not 1986.

    And when some of you guys throw out terms like “millennial snowflakes”, please realize it makes it 100% known you’re the dumbest guy in the room.

  64. BucsBandit Says:


    I don’t think any of the Winston critics are saying he completely sucks, at least not me…

    What I say is that Winston sucks… about 20% of the time in most games. That’s enough to cost your team wins.

  65. Jaywill Says:

    40% of Winston throws are for first down. That’s only 2nd to Matt Ryan since Winston has been the league. He has is flaws but the are over exaggerated. Without a defense, run game or fg kicker the last few years Im surprise he didnt have as many turnovers as Peyton Manning did in his 1st 4 years

  66. Jaywill Says:

    Evans wasnt the only guy that caught 3rd down passes. Humphries was huge on 3rd downs

  67. Magadude Says:

    Gil Brandt must qualify as one of those “lazy slobs.” He just wrote:
    “But whereas the Titans smartly backed up Mariota with a proven alternative in Ryan Tannehill, the Buccaneers are going to rise or fall with Winston alone. I understand the logic behind wanting to see if new coach Bruce Arians can help Winston cut down on the sloppy turnovers and poor decision-making that have marred his career thus far, but if his inconsistency continues to be an issue in 2019, Arians can only turn to journeymen for help.”

    I’d rather be in lock step with smart guys like Brandt than the blind-love Winston apologists running around Winston’s problems on pretty much everything else.

    I don’t know a single person here who says everything that’s a problem with the Bucs is Winston. I see entirely the opposite. Bandit is right though…he makes enough mistakes that he costs his teams. I’ll add he is unreliable. Oh…I mean what the lazy slob Brandt says….inconsistent.