August 15th, 2019

Odds are good.

Every year rotten teams improve their records. And a spreadsheeter thinks he has it figured out.

Foliclly-challenged Billy Barnwell of BSPN is damn good at this prognostication. In the past two years, 11 teams improved over the previous seasons and Barnwell got nine of those right.

So this year he’s trying to guess the improved teams again. He is convinced five will be better than last year. And he has the Bucs in that group.

Tampa may have upgraded by swapping out Gerald McCoy for Ndamukong Suh and Kwon Alexander for first-round pick Devin White, but it was already thin at defensive end before losing Jason Pierre-Paul, who is expected to miss most of the season with a neck injury. Few teams in the league are weaker on the edge than Tampa, which will need to depend on Suh and Todd Bowles’ track record of creating pressure with blitzes to generate a steady pass rush. Tampa has seven defensive backs on rookie deals who were taken in one of the first three rounds of the draft, and Bowles will need to develop them into worthwhile contributors.

I have question marks about the talent, but there are two reasons to think the Bucs might at least approach mediocrity on defense in 2019. One is health; last year’s Bucs posted the most adjusted games lost on defense of any team in the statistic’s history. JPP was the only defender who started all 16 games, but history tells us that it’s virtually impossible the Bucs will be as banged-up, even as they’re already working from behind after losing their star defensive end for a chunk of the year.

Barnwell admits it is walking out on a ledge to predict anything good about the Bucs because they have forged a rich history of being an NFL trainwreck for the better part of the 21st century. Ira documented this yesterday.

Barnwell also believes too many people are focused on the offense and America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, in trying to guess the outcome of the 2019 season for the Bucs.

The offense, Barnwell writes, ain’t the problem.

26 Responses to “Improve”

  1. Kobe Faker Says:

    “This defense will be historically bad

    6 games torched for over 40 pts

    Holes everywhere

    No defensive talent”

    Kobe Faker

  2. Pittsshore Says:

    Wow Joe. Billy went out on a limb with 6 wins.

  3. Loyaltotheend Section 312 Says:

    Saw these stats on social media, offense might not be the problem but it’s not helping this team win

    When your QB is only turnover free in 17 of 56
    career games, hes not helping a poor defense

    Jameis has never thrown for 3 or more TDs in consecutive games, every QB drafted since 2015 who has started at least 20 games has

    When your QB has only thrown for 3 or more TDs in 10 of 56 games, he’s not a franchise qb

    When your QB goes all season without throwing a TD in the 3rd quarter (2018) he’s inconsistent

    When your QB goes all season without throwing a TD in the second quarter (2017) he’s inconsistent

    When your QB throws 32 of his career 58 picks on his side of the field, he’s not putting the team in position to win

  4. Snook Says:

    The offense isn’t the problem? How many first quarter points did we score last season?

    Please. The only question mark on this team is “Turnover Jameis.”

  5. PSLBob Says:

    Joe, anything new on JPP’s status? In his post, Barnwell indicates that JPP will be out “most of the season” and later “a chunk of the year.” Does he really know that or is he just speculating like many others? I know you have to be very cautious with neck injuries, but it seems that earlier posts were a little less negative about the extent of time he will miss.

  6. AlteredEgo Says: Your comment is awaiting moderation. Says:

    Didn’t see Jameis mentioned…

  7. The Buc Realist Says:

    Before the historically injured year last year, and with light weight filling the roster with has been, bad draft picks, building around and running scheme to appease the media loving she-mc and despite some of the worst in the league in turnovers by the offense!!!!!! Coach Smitty avg pts allowed was 23.3 per game!!!!!!! The “real” fans will be very interested where toilet bowles defense ends up in the “points allowed” this year with a softer schedule!!!!!!!!!!! When the media only has to say that statistically, they should not be as injured as last year as the only positive, then the rebuild is much closer than the sheep think!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    2019 will reveal answers to the sheep, that the “real” fans already know!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    go bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  8. Ghost of Darrell Henderson Says:

    Vita Vea and LVD can work out and maintain their core strength. They can actually work out with their opposite leg to maintain strength in their injured leg. When their knees get better, they can play.

    JPP can’t work out. He can’t maintain his core strength that took him years of training to build up. After 6 months of a sedentary lifestyle, he will be weak and probably 75 LBS overweight.

    When his neck gets better, he will have to start at square one to build his core strength.

    Stick a fork in JPP’s career, he’s done.

  9. Stanglassman Says:

    The people that have hated Jameis for some reason 🤔 all along aren’t buying what BA and other professionals believe. Unfortunately that’s not surprising.

  10. Defense Rules Says:

    Actually like Barnwell’s logic … Bucs were historically bad on defense last year, we’ve made some improvements, so we shouldn’t be ‘as bad’ this year. Assuming the offense holds its own & our S/Ts does also, we SHOULD be better.

    Many folks seem to think that it’ll take mammoth improvements for the Bucs to have a winning record this year, but I doubt that’s the case. Yes we went 5-11 last year. But we lost FOUR games by 3 points or less. THREE MEASLY POINTS. Win those 4 games and we’d have had a 9-7 record … with last year’s talent & historical injury situation.

    Personally think that the improvements we’ve made in coaching & personnel will lead to a better record this year. How much better is anyone’s guess at this point. Just have to let it play out.

  11. Buccaroo Says:

    I think our kicking game will help us win those close games this season to go 8-8 + or – a game

  12. 813bucboi Says:

    10-6 and a playoff berth!!!!!!

    GO BUCS!!!!!!

  13. AlabamaBucsFan Says:

    First, Our ends will be Suh and Gholston with Vita in the middle. Second, the fourth rusher will be an OLB. Noah and Barrett.

    We are primed to be one of those suck-ass teams to improve due to all the high draft picks over the last five years. We just needed coaches to guide these young guys and to best utilize them to their best abilities.

  14. 813bucboi Says:


    doesnt matter…..the “real” fans have spoken!!!!!!!!!

    Huge pass to the coaching staff issued by the “real” Buc fans!!!!!!!!!
    GO Bucs!!!!!!!

  15. Jolly Bucs Fan Says:

    Defense will be the determining factor, as Barnwell and as all logical Bucs fans already knew.

    I do think the offense will be improved and might net us a few extra wins over last year (improved playcalling especially in the redzone, improved run game, and improved play by JW due to the above and a better defense)

    But in the end, the difference between improving to 7-9 and 11-5 is going to be the defense.

  16. AlabamaBucsFan Says:

    There is only a few coaches who can turn around a team in one season.

    BA was coach of the year twice. This says something……

  17. Buccaroo Says:

    With seconds left in the game the Bucs drive just past mid-field to attempt a 58 yard FG for the win. Bucco Bruce motions to coach Keith Armstrong and yells “Loose the Kraken❗”

    Go Bucs 🏴‍☠️

  18. Tony from L.A. Says:

    Kobe Faker
    Ghost of D. Henderson

    IF we combined you two, we’d still be left with only half a brain.

  19. BA FAN Says:

    Well Ghost, how do you explain Peyton Manning’s recovery from an even more damaging neck injury and winning a Super Bowl? Your logic on PFF is as warped as your boasts on how small school shrimp Henderson was going to be the best back in the NFL. What are is his yards per carry so far now? PFF recovered his career after blowing off fingers on his one hand. He can put his neck in his brace til it is fully healed and work out just like he always has. He is not an invalid confined in a hospital bed. And any posters who want PFF cut are as wrong as the Indianapolis Fans who wanted Peyton Manning, who won their last Super Bowl Victory, traded off because of his injury! They have not won a Super Bowl since and had the agony of watching Peyton recover and win another Super Bowl for the Broncos. PFF will be back and help this team go to the playoffs and beyond.

  20. Race to 10 Says:

    Quarterback wasn’t the problem coaching was. Everyday people say it without actually admitting it. Put up all the quarterback stats you want but if fitz is better than Winston then wouldn’t it be the coaches fault he failed too? He just happened top also be a turnover machine in limited duty. Coincidence? We will find out in week 2 when he faces a veteran defense. Carolina had the type of defense had has to beat top shed any negativity another his game.

    Will he ever be worth the number 1 overall pick? The answer is no if you can’t make it to the playoffs, that’s where guys make a name for themselves In a good way

  21. Barack's Crack Pipe Says:

    “Barnwell admits it is walking out on a ledge to predict anything good about the Bucs because they have forged a rich history of being an NFL trainwreck for the better part of the 21st century.”

    Why does he only mention the 21st Century? Did he forget our dismal contribution to the 1900s?

  22. Joe Says:

    Why does he only mention the 21st Century? Did he forget our dismal contribution to the 1900s?

    Pre-Father Dungy era is pretty much history. Not sure there are any employees of the Bucs during the Sam Wyche era or before that are still with the team, much less any players.

  23. Barack's Crack Pipe Says:

    I don’t know why so many people believe that JPP (JPP, not PFF :/) is bed-ridden and helpless to exercise and work out. If bouncing around inside a car didn’t displace his vertebral fracture, he should be able to run and work out as soon as the fracture has shown itself to be knitting properly. But wtfdik. I bet he’s already posting exercise pictures online.

  24. Joe Says:

    I don’t know why so many people believe that JPP (JPP, not PFF :/) is bed-ridden and helpless to exercise and work out.

    Yesterday JPP published a picture on Instagram wearing a neckbrace. It’s Aug. 15.

    Do you really expect a guy in a neckbrace who hasn’t worked out in months (JPP loves uploading videos of his workouts, which he hasn’t done since his wreck) to be starting on an NFL field within eight weeks? The season could well be lost by that time.

    Please provide Joe a link of anyone in a neckbrace pumping weights or even running like a maniac on a treadmill.

    Guess one could expect JPP to make a miraculous recovery. That’s one helluva gamble Joe wouldn’t make, unless the Bucs have some inside medical info they aren’t willing to share. And teams generally crow about good news, not hide it.

  25. Mike Johnson Says:

    Mr. Barnwell is spot on. The offense will score. But what happens when your opposition scores as equal or more than you? Everybody on every website is reveling in the Offense and how good our secondary will be. Yet…That pass rush thing is starring us straight in the face. No JPP. No Vey and no McCoy. Sure we got Suh. Bit let me remind all of you Suh has his games where he disappears to and gets angry..making penalties. He is NOT..consistent. Scour them waiver wires and find us a couple of DE’s.

  26. July Joe Says:

    QB Whisperer Bruce Arians came out of retirement specifically so he could coach Jameis Winston

    QB Guru Kyle Shanahan raves about Jameis Winston and says he can do things coaches don’t even think are possible

    QB Guru Steve Mariucci said Jameis was the smartest QB he’d ever worked with on the white board

    Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner raves about Jameis and says the sky is the limit for him

    Warre Sapp says he would have a bunch of SB rings had Jameis been his QB

    But idiotic fans who know net to NOTHING about how to evaluate QBs believe Jameis is garbage and needs to go …